Is the market really hot, or has the definition of the market been changed to make it appear so?
291fifth
Posts: 24,423 ✭✭✭✭✭
I increasingly get the feeling that the portion of the coin market that is "hot" is actually just a small segment that appeals to the very wealthy. Is this what is now meant when people refer to the "market?"
All glory is fleeting.
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"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
my gosh, that was well said!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I no longer use auction prices realized as accurate guidelines anymore because I think too many bidders are afflicted with 'auction fever' and are chasing and way overpaying for many items at auction these days, many times way over what a very similar piece would sell for on the bourse floor or a dealers retail price list.
<< <i>I no longer use auction prices realized as accurate guidelines anymore >>
What do you use?
Or, has the definition of "hot" been changed to make it appear so?
<< <i>
<< <i>I no longer use auction prices realized as accurate guidelines anymore >>
What do you use? >>
1957 Red Book.
What do you use?
i am starting to agree with the above poster.
i can find better deals right now in dealers inventory then i can
on ebay/heritage/anr.
so i would use a dealer's website as a more accurate guide then
some segment's auction fever.
some segment's auction fever.
The problem with that is:
1) You do not know how much the coins brought, only what the list price was.
2) The longer a coin lingers in an inventory, the more likely the list price is too high.
3) For many active dealers, only a small fraction of the coins sold are first listed on the website.
etc.
Coins seem to be selling very nicely within the venues that I have to use to obtain them. If the market was not strong probably a person could buy just about any coin he wanted at the price he wanted. Is anyone able to do this now ?
I gave up on auctions about 6 months ago. Nothing could be purchased at a reasonable price or the stuff looked like junk or the descriptions were bogus or a hidden reserve was in place or....you get the picture.
Ken
The real collectors market that is. Common wheat cents, common buffalo nickels, liberty head nickels, mercury dimes, washington quarters, etc. All signs in the tier III part of the coin hobby is very strong with more and more buyers outpacing the number of sellers.
Wheat cents for instance, broke all time highs recently and cannot be attributed to copper commodity prices.
<< <i>
<< <i>I no longer use auction prices realized as accurate guidelines anymore >>
What do you use? >>
I try to use a combo of dealer ask prices on the floor of large shows and sometimes the Greysheet and sometimes retail prices list to figure a fair price for many pieces I'd be interested in.
I see too often these days fairly common replaceable coins selling for absurd money at large auctions because you have either newbs or people with more money than brains chasing coins and bidding them up to levels far exceeding what they could just be purchased for at nearly any show.
When I place what I feel is a strong bid for a fairly common date/grade coin and it sells for 2-3X my max bid.......that's just 'auction fever' and not reality of current pricing for other coins of that grade and date. I also think many bidders see pics of auction lots online and bid them through the roof thinking they are much nicer than they really may be in hand. Of course the consignors sure aren't complaining, LOLOL.
we discussed some half eagles that Joe had.
imagine the better dates were sold at baltimore in a matter
of an hour..
yet you called them the last of the coins to move in his deal,
therefore must not be very nice...
i said they were priced strong because Joe knew what he had.
people wish to dicker with him and he said no.
well they are gone at his prices. Mark was too late at his table
for me to get him to look.
Joe is fricking estatic. 25,000 appears to have been offered
for his 64S.
after thinking it through a bit and reading RYK's post..
i am rethinking my original position.
but the orig poster does have a point about auction fever!
<< <i>As seen most recently in the ANR sale, cool, fresh coins are bringing strong money. Overgraded, overprocessed, and overabundant coins languish. Frankly, I find that these two statements together bode well for the hobby, and I certainly care much more about the hobby than I do the market. >>
I would partially agree with this statement. I think it's good for the hobby that overgraded and overprocessed coins languish. But if overabundant coins are also languishing, it would seem to point to the hobby getting out of reach for the "common man," which I don't think is good long term.
Then the dealers come back from the show whining about how hard it was to find anything to buy but at the same time pointing to auction prices and using that to spur their asking prices. Its sort of "if that one that sold at auction for more than it is worth, then this coin in my inventory too ought to sell for more than it is worth."
CG
Of course none of this "Noise" from low-life collectors coming from a chat board means a thing. Have a great day folks.
<< <i>The other observation is that the major services seem to be very tough right now and they are not making many coins. >>
That is from Doug Winter's site as reported by RYK in the Baltimore show report thread and speaks of an artificial shortage.
If the services are not giving upgrades the dealers are going to keep coins off the market until (1) the price of the undergrade rises to the point that they can make a tidy profit, (2) they can finally get their upgrade and make a killing, (3) they have to pay down their credit line, or (4) they have to buy their girl friend a mink coat and take their wife on vacation.
CG