What is a condition rare coin?
notlogical
Posts: 2,235 ✭
What does that mean? 
What Mr. Spock would say about numismatics...
... "Fascinating, but not logical"
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
... "Fascinating, but not logical""Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
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You can take this to allmost any series of coins and find a coin that is just really hard to find in it's highest grade.
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
<< <i>So why do some people say they aren't valuable? I'm really confused? >>
The reasons why there are those of us who question their (very high) values or prices paid are two fold. First, we question why one grading point, high up on the scale, (e.g. from MS or PR 68 to 69) is worth so much more when the differences are either very minor or non-existent. Second, much of the value of these coins would go away if their owners were to crack them out of their holders. Like a virus that can’t survive out of the human body, these coins lose much of their value if they are raw or even in a holder other than PCGS.
Please note that it is more than likely that these comments will be followed by vigorous defenses from the usual suspects who will tell you that I am stupid and ignorant. The reason for these attacks will be because they feel duty bound to defend their tuff, livelihood or delusional opinions.
<< <i>Among the registry driven modern collectors in this group, it's the PCGS grade in which that are a very limited number of POP-1 coins on the condition census.
<< <i>So why do some people say they aren't valuable? I'm really confused? >>
The reasons why there are those of us who question their (very high) values or prices paid are two fold. First, we question why one grading point, high up on the scale, (e.g. from MS or PR 68 to 69) is worth so much more when the differences are either very minor or non-existent. Second, much of the value of these coins would go away if their owners were to crack them out of their holders. Like a virus that can’t survive out of the human body, these coins lose much of their value if they are raw or even in a holder other than PCGS.
Please note that it is more than likely that these comments will be followed by vigorous defenses from the usual suspects who will tell you that I am stupid and ignorant. The reason for these attacks will be because they feel duty bound to defend their tuff, livelihood or delusional opinions. >>
Then there are those that agree with you Bill
Imagine that all of the circulated ones form the base, then the average Uncirculated ones form the middle, then, towards the top of they pyramid, all of the nice Uncirculated ones that are still in rolls and bags and mint sets. Finally, at the very tippy top, are the ones that are slabbed MS68 and MS69 by PCGS.
the top coins are "conditionally rare" because there are only a few of them, out of all those billions extant, that are available in such a plastic holder.
So why do some people say they aren't valuable?
A better question might be, why do some people say they are?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>So why do some people say they aren't valuable? I'm really confused? >>
1) Value is determined by the buyer and seller. If the buyer wants a coin that condition and there are few to chose from then he must pay the price. However, there are many in the hobby who don't think that the extra condition is worth that large of a premium. If you have unlimited funds you can buy many "perfect coins" but if you are like most collectors, you would rather have 5-10 gem examples of different coins for the same price.
2) Condition is often an opinion, of course we all can tell a gem unc from an XF so we might pay 10x the price, but would you pay 10x the price of a lower coin if you couldn't see the difference for yourself.
If i put a box of 100 new cents on the counter and told you one was worth 10000 times the value of the others would you be able to justify paying for that one, or would you rather just take one of the other shiny new coins for your set and look at the next box?
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
<< <i>Among the registry driven modern collectors in this group, it's the PCGS grade in which that are a very limited number of POP-1 coins on the condition census.
<< <i>So why do some people say they aren't valuable? I'm really confused? >>
The reasons why there are those of us who question their (very high) values or prices paid are two fold. First, we question why one grading point, high up on the scale, (e.g. from MS or PR 68 to 69) is worth so much more when the differences are either very minor or non-existent. Second, much of the value of these coins would go away if their owners were to crack them out of their holders. Like a virus that can’t survive out of the human body, these coins lose much of their value if they are raw or even in a holder other than PCGS.
Please note that it is more than likely that these comments will be followed by vigorous defenses from the usual suspects who will tell you that I am stupid and ignorant. The reason for these attacks will be because they feel duty bound to defend their tuff, livelihood or delusional opinions. >>
The real reason these posts get people attention is that you are missing the point.
There are cases where what you say has validity. It is still a matter of opinion how
one reacts or deals with the truth in the statement. But this truth does not apply
across all moderns. This is really a simple concept. Just as all classics are not 1804
dollars not all moderns are common in the next grade down. Even with those which
are common in the next grade down, there can be a huge difference in quality from
grade to grade. Just because most collectors can't tell some PR-70's from PR-69's
hardly means that all moderns are proof, common, or high grade.
Even were it true that all moderns had a common denominator (other than age) it
would not make them uncollectible crap.
This is not difficult to understand. Those who don't get it aren't trying and those
who seem not to get it may have ulterior motives or may simply be mispeaking rat-
her than being delusional.
If people would just be more specific and less confrontational we might find there
is no reason at all for confrontation. We might find more cpommon ground as well.
It's an excuse to overpay for a coin for your registry set.
Im not sure this is a classic vs modern debate. The question is valid even if you refer to 1909 pennies, 1881 morgans etc. I remember looking at a few hundred ms67 1943 lincolns and a couple of ms68s. The 67s were about 60 bucks and the 68 was 1200 and I couldn't tell the difference with a 10x loop.
Is the percieved rarity based on some graders opinion worth a 2000% premium?
<< <i>Imagine a giant mountain of coins, a pyramid if you will, of all the 2005-D Lincoln cents. There are several billion of them.
Imagine that all of the circulated ones form the base, then the average Uncirculated ones form the middle, then, towards the top of they pyramid, all of the nice Uncirculated ones that are still in rolls and bags and mint sets. Finally, at the very tippy top, are the ones that are slabbed MS68 and MS69 by PCGS.
the top coins are "conditionally rare" because there are only a few of them, out of all those billions extant, that are available in such a plastic holder.
So why do some people say they aren't valuable?
A better question might be, why do some people say they are? >>
All of the 1969-D quarters in the world fit in a horribly overloaded semi trailer. When
you started sorting through them you'd see an endless succession of VG's and F's with
about 20% of them significantly damaged. Once in a long while you'd see a nice VF or
better with most of these being VF. There would be an occasional unc and most of
these would be quite unremarkable but nice choice uncs would hardly be rare. PL's
would be seen every week or two if you could sort the coins quickly enough. This would
be about as often as you'd find nice superb uncs. If you knew what to look for you could
also seek the rare varieties.
The curious thing though is that all the 1969 quarters in the world are not in one place.
If you desire to own any of these you'll have to find them mixed in with all the other coins
minted since people stopped collecting modern coins in 1965. This would require that
you buy about 10 rolls at the bank and then you'd just get one of the VG's or F's with a
strong chance of having severe damage. If you want an XF you'd just as well forget it.
There are no dealers who could ever stock such coins because they virtually no longer
exist. They are not in collections and you can't go to ebay and find rolls of them. The same
applies to the varieties of this date but with the varieties you can't evenb get them in mint
sets since only one minor variety appears in mint sets.
This leaves a few BU rolls and the mint sets. Forget finding the BU rolls as well because
you won't. If you do see one it's a virtual certainty that it's actually a mint set roll. So how
about those mint sets, eh? Yes, they were made in substantial numbers but a few decades
of people sincerely believing that the coins could form a pyramid of tremendous size has
caused huge attrition. These sets sold for less than face value for years and at one point
the half dollar contained more silver than the value of the set. People considered these
crap so survival has been very poor. Time hasn't been kind to the survivors either; large
percentages of many of the coins in the sets are damaged by corrosion.
So look at the few coins that survive undamaged in sets. These coins are not all MS-69's
just waiting for some scumball to send them in so they can rip a little old lady. There is a
huge range in quality from MS-60 to MS-68. Very Very few are at the high end of the spectrum,
hence the term condition rare.
<< <i>Im not sure this is a classic vs modern debate. >>
It always is.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
Is the percieved rarity based on some graders opinion worth a 2000% premium? >>
You'll see the same spread in indian cents so it's really not a classic/ modern debate.
The reason for this spread wherever it's seen is generally the same. There is a different
demand supply curve between the highest grades. Some coins are nearly as scarce in
a little lower grade so the premium is less. Other coins are more common in a little lower
grade so the premium can be huge.
The coin is valued at the graders opinion only if the buyer agrees with it or defers to it.
It should not be assumed that those who buy moderns are slaves to the graders or the
plastic.
On the flip side, take a look at the 1806 pointed 6 with stem half dollar. There is a total of 687 of these graded at PCGS with 6 in 64, 6 in 65, 2 in 66, and only 1 in 67. This upper set of coins could be classified as conditional rarity.
I thought rare was like when only five coins were ever made for the whole year or series. 1913 V Nickel for example
Conditionally rare is when lots of coins were made, but only five are of the highest grade. 1956 1c PR68Dcam for example
----------------------------------------------
You may pay $2M for the V Nickel but can rest reasonably assured no more will be found
If you pay $5.5k (PCGS Guide) for the Lincoln, you run the risk that an NGC coin will cross and now have six conditionally rare top pops.
--------------------------------------------
The key question is: Is it easier to find a buyer for the V Nickel for $M or for the collector base to expand to absorb another Lincoln for $k?
Really two different clientele and markets IMHO.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
a conditionally rare coin is just what the term implies; rare because of it's condition(grade) and not because of actual rarity as a result of numbers struck or numbers known(extant). there are perhaps as many conditionally rare coins for a given series as there are dates within the series, with each date of a given series sometimes having those few select coins which are better than all the others. some are willing to pay the long dollar for them, even some non-Registry collectors.
I'm not sure how to provide examples of a modern that is rare vs. conditionally rare or I would have used two moderns in my example.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
Well said, Bill!
The only difference between classics and moderns in this regard is the size of the pyramid underneath the top pops and thus the multiples the top pops bring on the marketplace. There aren't many classics where the top pop exceeds 5-10 times the underpop's value, let alone the factor of hundreds or possibly thousands that some moderns tend to bring.
<< <i>]
Well said, Bill!
The only difference between classics and moderns in this regard is the size of the pyramid underneath the top pops and thus the multiples the top pops bring on the marketplace. There aren't many classics where the top pop exceeds 5-10 times the underpop's value, let alone the factor of hundreds or possibly thousands that some moderns tend to bring. >>
So... ... do I take this to mean you didn't read my post, didn't understand it, or disagreed with it.
It would make your opinion of some value to me if you would take the time to explain why I'm wrong.
I agree with your comment. Isn't the price mulitplier low on classics because they are typically rare and conditionally rare? The base of the pyramid has rarity going for it. The modern just has condition rarity.
That's the supply side. The demand side also has an impact.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
It would make your opinion of some value to me if you would take the time to explain why I'm wrong.
We're both right: you focus on the exceptions to the rule and I focus on the numerous examples that lead to the rule in the first place.
On the other side of the coin( No pun intended))
Since the majority of Sac's do not circulate, i.e. a well worn circulated Sac is condition "rare" .
So in one sense the opposite is true... a VG example literally would be conditon rarity.It doesn't always mean that grade rarity is always worth more does it
1997 Matte Nickel strike thru U
"Error Collector- I Love Dem Crazy Coins"
"Money, what is money? It is loaned to a man; he comes into the world with nothing and he leaves with nothing." Billy Durant. Founder of General Motors. He died a pauper.
<< <i>
We're both right: you focus on the exceptions to the rule and I focus on the numerous examples that lead to the rule in the first place.
If you're right that it's an exception to the rule then why don't classic guys use more words like some or most?
You told BillJones that "First, we question why one grading point, high up on the scale, (e.g. from MS or PR 68 to 69) is worth so much more when the differences are either very minor or non-existent. Second, much of the value of these coins would go away if their owners were to crack them out of their holders" was "well said". Nowhere does he say that this doesn't apply to all moderns and he actually implies that it does. Despite the arguments to the contrary (and without even addressing the arguments to the contrary) he merely restates the the same accusations that have been here ad infinitum and you say "well said".
Obviously this makes perfect sense to you and it's also obvious that you are both experienced and knowledgeable hobbyists/ dealers so your opinion really do count, but perhaps the cause for your opinion has changed over the years. My argument has never been moderns to the exclusion of classics or all moderns are better than all classics. It's not even some moderns are better than some classics. It is simply that there are many great moderns and there are some people enjoying almost all of them. Certainly there are some pitfalls in some moderns but if you want to get this from me you'll have to read in between the lines because I like all coins. Suffice to say that I do agree that anyone paying a steep premium for differences he can't see is engaging in risky speculation or at least financially risky coin collecting. You say this is a big part of modern collecting but there are half a trillion moderns and this is a tiny part. It is also a small part of the modern market.
It should not be assumed that those paying the large premiums don't see these differences. Even if they don't, do they really deserve the apparent "abuse" heaped on them all these years?
I completely disagree. I think most of the buying and selling of these coins is for pure collector motives. It may be true that some people's attention is "misplaced" and they'd be better off in indian cents or bust dollars but there is probably less speculation in most moderns than in classics. There is probably purer collector motivation in moderns on average than in classics on average.
Conditionally rare means a high graded coin where only a few examples have been slabbed at that high of a grade for a particular date and mintmark of a particular coin. They can be valuable if there are people wanting such a high grade example either to complete a set or because they want to have one of the finest known examples of that coin. Paying a high price for such a coin is risky because of the possibility that someone somewhere owns enough additional raw examples of the same date and mintmark of that particular coin that would grade as high or higher.
Like if someone found 20 raw MS-68 1855 Dollars and the population of slabbed 1855 Dollars in MS68 is only 5. If suddenly the person with a whole roll submitted them the population would go from 5 to 25 and the rarity would go down and the price would drop.
Some people feel that this risk is higher with modern coins because more were minted and therefore there is a higher probability that more high grade raw coins that grade high exist, but this may or may not be true. For example, I know a dealer that bought a whole roll of 1909 VDB Lincolns where most of them graded above MS66 Red. I am not sure at what grade red 1909 VDB lincolns become conditionally rare, but this may have significanly changed the population numbers. There may be nice rolls set aside from any coins, modern or from back in the day.
Of course this is just my oversimplification of it all, but it makes sense to me if I look at it like this.
I preach value with classics - I'd collect the just missed FB or FH coins and focus on coins that just missed the next grade up in those series as well.
<< <i>
So why do some people say they aren't valuable?
A better question might be, why do some people say they are? >>
Pithy, yet spot on
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
<< <i>i no longer feel any need to defend the Kingdom, but i do feel duty bound to tell you that Mr. Jones is neither stupid nor ignorant, though he may at times suffer from a persecution complex!!
Oh but you have! And you intimated that I was not even that competent in the classic coin field, I got my back up.
If you disagree with my opinion, that’s fine. But when you question my numismatic competency to defend your position, you have stepped over the line. And you did that a few weeks ago.
<< <i>The title of this thread is very cleverly worded to incite us all to renew the classics v. modern debate. >>
It was?
Thanks for all the answers, but I think it is going to take me until next fall to understand the answers though.
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
<< <i>The title of this thread is very cleverly worded to incite us all to renew the classics v. modern debate. Don't bite
Definition........A coin....in a high grade condition....because...........the ..MODERNS.. are made BETTER.........................
How's that for a recursive definition?
<< <i>Please note that it is more than likely that these comments will be followed by vigorous defenses from the usual suspects who will tell you that I am stupid and ignorant. The reason for these attacks will be because they feel duty bound to defend their tuff, livelihood or delusional opinions. >>
don't you just love that bill?
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
The condition of the coin reflects the need just the same as the rarity...........If all we saw in our daily collecting life were Au coins day to day and then appeared a Mint State coin ... one would be delghted to see it .What price would you put on that example ........................
notlogical here is your mission. Print out all of this post, combine it into an article for a coin magazine or a school project. Call it "no one knows anything and knows all about it."
<< <i>By the way where did you hear that term? Possibly someone just made it up to confuse this forum. Ever notice how something like this gets all kinds of answers and there is no resolution.
notlogical here is your mission. Print out all of this post, combine it into an article for a coin magazine or a school project. Call it "no one knows anything and knows all about it." >>
You never know, he just might if he can ever figure it out.
<< <i>
Thanks for all the answers, but I think it is going to take me until next fall to understand the answers though.
<< <i>By the way where did you hear that term? >>
I read it on the forum and wanted to know what it means.
"Live long and prosper"
My "How I Started" columns
Comare the 1884-s dollar.
This coin is easily found in circulated condition but is scarce in MS. PCGS has only graded 234 in MS, and that number may include resubmissions.
Go to ebay and you will find many circs for sale, raw and slabbed. In lower grades its a cull really not worth much more than melt.
AU 53 PGCS pop 540 price $200
MS 61 PCGS pop 67 price $6K to $7K.
MS64 NGC pop 12 with only 2 higher ( the PCGS pop is 13 with 3 higher) sold for over $116,000 last year in a Heritage auction.
That is conditionally rare.
CG
Edited to add: if a true MS 84-s is auctioned off raw it might not bring as much as a slabbed coin at the grade but it wil still cost you bundle to take it home.