these kind of threads are always enjoyable because they show some of the naked ignorance and bias prevelant in the hobby. with that said, i think i'll sit back and relax while i leave the ten-foot-pole out in the garage.
<< <i>Not really "crashed", but short set Walkers took a pretty strong dump >>
That's cause short sets are for pusses.
One pop top modern that's crashed with every sale is the 1982-D Washington half dollar. The first PCGS MS69 sold for $5000 on Teletrade -- nowadays you should be able to pick one up for $400 or less. >>
The real question here is not whether the modern top pop market is going to crash, but whether the top pop craze is really changing the view of TPG and collecting/BUYING habits of collectors.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
he real question here is not whether the modern top pop market is going to crash, but whether the top pop craze is really changing the view of TPG and collecting/BUYING habits of collectors.
Smart question.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>The real question here is not whether the modern top pop market is going to crash, but whether the top pop craze is really changing the view of TPG and collecting/BUYING habits of collectors. >>
Which, if true, and the changed view of the TPGs and collecting/buying habits of collectors becomes the norm, the next question may be: Will the view of the TPGs and collecting/buying habits of collectors drastically change from this in the future? I think that the answer to this question is "no". The collecting/buying of top pops will become more commonplace, replacing any "craze" mentality, and contribute to increased prices in this area.
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
Okay... here's a challenge for you big guy...
Find me a Uncirculated Full Step RAW Jefferson (must be a 5 Step or higher coin without bridges, tics, cuts, etc and gradable) from allof the following dates:
1965 MINT STATE 1966 MINT STATE 1967 MINT STATE 1968-D 1969-D 1969-S 1970-D
I don't care if the coin is an MS60 or higher... but they have to be capable of receiving a grade from PCGS.
Please... show everyone how common these coins are? I'll give you $100 for each coin you find.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation.
Even though it is true the mint made hundreds of millions of Jeffersons per year... and the classic collectors all say they aren't rare... it's funny that they want to differentiate one fact... their coins are rare the higher the grade they are because fewer were minted... but moderns with millions more minted but with a miniscule amount in higher grades aren't.
Here's your chance to make $700 quick and easy. Heck I'll add a bonus of $300 for all seven Full Step Jeffersons for a grand total of $1000. How long do you need... I'll give you a year! Please let me know if you need more time.
Steve >>
Thanks for the opportunity, but I'll pass. I don't have the time or inclination to go looking through modern crap for these "rare" coins and, as I said, most repose in hoards and private collections, are inaccessable, and are not candidates for the slabing machines. If these are your treasures, go for it and have fun.
If you go for the quality and not the quantity, you'll do fine down the road no matter if it's a classic or modern.
Joe >>
Quality at the right price. If someone buys top quality from one of those big ads in the magazines they may be buried in the coin for the next 20 years, no matter what that segment does. This goes double for moderns because the market is thinner and dealer spreads are typically higher.
Used to be, the "nice coin" premium was like 10% over an average coin for the grade and buying quality was virtually a no-lose proposition. Now that the "nice coin" premium often is 25%, 50%, 100% or more at auction, people that pay up for that quality today may or may not get their money out when it comes to sell.
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
Okay... here's a challenge for you big guy...
Find me a Uncirculated Full Step RAW Jefferson (must be a 5 Step or higher coin without bridges, tics, cuts, etc and gradable) from allof the following dates:
1965 MINT STATE 1966 MINT STATE 1967 MINT STATE 1968-D 1969-D 1969-S 1970-D
I don't care if the coin is an MS60 or higher... but they have to be capable of receiving a grade from PCGS.
Please... show everyone how common these coins are? I'll give you $100 for each coin you find.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation.
Even though it is true the mint made hundreds of millions of Jeffersons per year... and the classic collectors all say they aren't rare... it's funny that they want to differentiate one fact... their coins are rare the higher the grade they are because fewer were minted... but moderns with millions more minted but with a miniscule amount in higher grades aren't.
Here's your chance to make $700 quick and easy. Heck I'll add a bonus of $300 for all seven Full Step Jeffersons for a grand total of $1000. How long do you need... I'll give you a year! Please let me know if you need more time.
Steve >>
Thanks for the opportunity, but I'll pass. I don't have the time or inclination to go looking through modern crap for these "rare" coins and, as I said, most repose in hoards and private collections, are inaccessable, and are not candidates for the slabing machines. If these are your treasures, go for it and have fun. >>
I think it's very sad as Keets said about some peoples "Naked Ignorance and bias"...
Unfortunately, there are some who will always talk about how others coins or whetever aren't up to their standards...
The truth is... these coins have a strong following... prices keep going up for many issues.
I figured as I wrote the last thread... that you would pass... in actuality... you sumed it up well... you don't have the time needed to actually find these coins... but they aren't rare... just a few people in the world hold on to every example in hoards and accumulations... will those people please stand up? I'd like to give them a hand.
Steve
U.S. Air Force Security Forces Retired
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
<< <i><< PM Marty and ask what his last few 1970 PR69 Dcam Kennedys sold for. >> >>
<< <i>They regularly bring $450 to $500. The last one I sold brought $533, and some have gone north of $600. Oh, and BTW, I paid $350 for the one in my set a little over three years ago. Russ >>
I only paid $308 for mine, and laughed all the way to the vault when I put it away.
<< <i>I think the market for moderns is still evolving and to predict what is going to happen with any degree of certainty is really tough based upon unknowns. >>
How true.
History repeats itself.
But read on:
<< <i> ........be aware of trends from the beginning of time when the Washington quarter series was young, just as the clad quarters of the late 1980's to date is currently young. The point of showing the historical information is to demonstrate that what WAS once the lowly rated coin at one time might not always be lowly and vice-versa. >>
This quotation came from my report on Washington quarters of the 1930's which affirmed that we really do not yet fully know which of the "moderns" will be the big winners and which of the "modern" will not be winners at all.
To lump all moderns into a loser category is illogical just as it is to state that all moderns are winners. But which ones will be the winners and to watch them happen is one of the more fascinating stories in all of numismatics.
Just as Q David Bowers saw the magic of the 1955 DDO cent evolve from a lowly and misunderstood "shift cent" into one of the most famous greatest 20th century issues or Oreville watching the 1972 DDO cent following the path of the 1955 DDO cent is so much fun.
I also love the Washington quarter issues of 1982 and 1983.
There will be losers and winners in modern coins! The trick is coming up with a sure-fire technique to predict which ones will win!
On this score, I think coinkat is absolutely right.
Thanks for the opportunity, but I'll pass. I don't have the time or inclination to go looking through modern crap for these "rare" coins and, as I said, most repose in hoards and private collections, are inaccessable, and are not candidates for the slabing machines. If these are your treasures, go for it and have fun.
The thread never asked if classics will crash along with the moderns and the answer is, yes....many or most will. There will be some classics and some moderns to escape the carnage, mostly circs or in-demand collector coins, or not yet fully understood rarities in older and newer coins.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation. ......it's not that it's funny.....read on.....
While that might be true, you can take the next step and say how many of the 1804 dollars are FULLY STRUCK or 1881-s Morgans have zero hits. How about fully struck 1909-s barber dimes? How about fully struck 1853-O dimes in AU or better, let alone UNC. The list is endless if you want to apply it. The difference is that there are hundreds of thousands of BU Jeff nickels in unc that aren't fully struck, yet probably only a few hundred 1909-s dimes or a dozen or two 1853-0 dimes out there in unc. Once you add in fully struck, or full corn, or full knot, or full forelock, or full head, you end up with zero pretty quick. That's the difference. And on 1804 dollars there aren't more than 15 to start with. Hard to compare a full step (yet not fully struck) 1970d nickel to a 1804 dollar. It's tens or hundreds of thousands vs. 15. I've owned a number of top pop (1 graded) seated coins and none of them came close to the price of an 1804 dollar even though they were "rarer" in grade......and the reason was obvious and well understood by myself and most others.
Actually I hope the moderns go to da moon. I think they're just a result of being the only real eye candy that anyone can get for less than 4 grand. So they keep the whole collecting community active and involved and ALL the series benefit. And as long as the modern market holds, there will be those who will trade for classics eventually.
most serious Modern collectors enjoy the fact that with Moderns, there is the oppurtunity to search through unsearched coins for gems or to search for issues that their prior searching has told them to look for. the abundance of material is laughed at by those who don't search as having loads and loads of gems just waiting to be found. the searchers know this isn't so. populations grow but the number of collectors who WANT the coins(read: demand) grows at a faster pace, so prices stay high, though they do drop from levels where the anxious and sometimes foolish rush in hastily to buy.
the notion that Modern collectors engage only in the pursuit of Modern coins to "trade" for Classics is misguided. many of us simply appreciate both arenas. it is possible to collect Proof Jefferson Nickels while assembling a Type Set.
This is an excellent source of information, once again.
Analyzing the market from the angles we approach them tends to amuse on these boards. It seems many times there is this underlying message in numismatics that one sector is somehow better than another. But the funny thing is, there is no difference except for age whether it is modern or not.
As a matter of fact, we are just now getting to the NEW Franklins and the new Lewis and Clark coins..... it is re hashing history all over. That is what COINAGE is. So what is the old Franklin or the old Lewis and Clark gold commemorative? These are coins made in the 1900's... that seems modern to me, but to my kids....what are the CLASSICS ( 57 Chevy, Old Juke boxes, early superhero rags, la la la --- they wouldn't even know what a Franklin half looked like if I didn't show them) ? I believe that if we put more emphasis on the "value of history" the market will all take care of itself and the only thing going to crash anytime soon sure isn't in the coin world.
Periodic adjustments is all you will see when a hoarder floods the market with his MODERN TREASURES.
Russ, I'll give you that. You can sure open the discussion with inciteful provocation. Kudos.
Still, the classics are what made a "wannabe" out of me .... the moderns only gave me a "SUPER HIGHWAY" back to them.
I've never spoken here about my opinion of what would happen if the modern market tanked because many people would have felt it was just self serving. First let me say that it seems highly improbable that it could happen. It would require a massive decrease in demand which could only be imposed from outside the hobby. People don't just suddenly change their be- havior in large numbers along this kind of parameter (classic/ modern). Any individual part of the modern market could come under pressure and collapse, just not the whole thing. Any mass- ive shifting out of moderns would probably occur with a shifting away from classics as well. Road- Runner is probably right that only a few rarities would be exempt but I suspect these would be almost exclusively classics. It's unlikely any modern rarities have the kind of attention that would be required to maintain their price in a general collapse of collectible coins. The real damage would occur over time as fewer and fewer of the great rarities could maintain their prices. At the same time though many of the bread and butter moderns would do reasonably well. Sure, $2000 com- mon date pop tops would get killed along with the rest of the market but a nice choice PA quarter would still go for a buck. Proof and mint sets would drop closer to face value but they'd still act- ually be bought and sold. 95% of all coins actually trading would be moderns and the total value traded might be triple the total value of the classics traded.
It's all a moot point since it's improbable but might be something to consider.
I think that some of the perceived "Modern Bashing" is not modern bashing , but a concern that collectors may not be making wise investments/purchases and they are attempting to provide sound advise. Remember that not many collectors have the "eye" or knowledge of a Russ or a Clad King. The lasck of a "Two Way" market is a concern to many collectors. This is a red flag for many. I believe to "Each His Own" when it comes to collecting. I myself like oddball coins, tokens, and medals. I do think that the market is in danger with 70's being handed out like candy by NGC, ICG, and others. The educated collector knows what to look for, but many, many others do not. There are many other TPGs that border on criminal in their slabbing of coins. Many do not understand that a PCGS MS 70 is not the same as an NTC MS 70. When the dodo hits the fan, I think it will drag all Moderns, to varying degrees, into the crapper. I also think that when the coin market in general has a correction, moderns will be hurt because of the narrow two-way market. Just my 2 cents.
It would require a massive decrease in demand which could only be imposed from outside the hobby. People don't just suddenly change their behavior in large numbers along this kind of parameter .
During the recessions of 1980-1982 and 1991-1995 collectors, dealers, and investors did just that...changed their ways. Some just dropped out for years as they reduced their spending habits. I would say that many top tier collectors left the market for months or years at a time when prices started falling off.
Let's also not forget that a large increase in SUPPLY can also damage the coin market. This is much more likely to occur with moderns than with classics. Pops can change significantly if there are ample supplies to pick through to make coins.
Dealers will drop whatever they need to in order to survive. It's debatable at this point what those "things" will be. You can bet MS65 Morgans will head the list. Comparable moderns will do likewise. I don't think much will come out unscathed.
<< <i>The lasck of a "Two Way" market is a concern to many collectors. >>
That's so last century. There is a thriving two way market. The difference is that it's not "traditional".
<< <i>Many do not understand that a PCGS MS 70 is not the same as an NTC MS 70. >>
The same problem applies to classics and is, in fact, far more dangerous. A garbage slab modern graded 70 doesn't bring much at all, but there are plenty of altered and/or doctored very expensive classics in these junk holders.
<< <i>I think that some of the perceived "Modern Bashing" is not modern bashing , but a concern that collectors may not be making wise investments/purchases and they are attempting to provide sound advise. Remember that not many collectors have the "eye" or knowledge of a Russ or a Clad King. The lasck of a "Two Way" market is a concern to many collectors. This is a red flag for many. I believe to "Each His Own" when it comes to collecting. I myself like oddball coins, tokens, and medals. I do think that the market is in danger with 70's being handed out like candy by NGC, ICG, and others. The educated collector knows what to look for, but many, many others do not. There are many other TPGs that border on criminal in their slabbing of coins. Many do not understand that a PCGS MS 70 is not the same as an NTC MS 70. When the dodo hits the fan, I think it will drag all Moderns, to varying degrees, into the crapper. I also think that when the coin market in general has a correction, moderns will be hurt because of the narrow two-way market. Just my 2 cents.
Andy >>
I really shouldn't throw around terms like modern basher on this forum any more. Virtually everyone has stopped with the bashing except for an occassional relapse.
There is a two way market for many of the moderns. It's the coins that have fairly high pops or are fairly easy to find raw where there is little two way market. But even on these coins a collector can sell them on ebay or wait for a buyer if he's not in a hurry.
There's no doubt that if the coin market corrected that there would be some damage in the modern market as well. Because of the fact that there are actually more people (especially compared to sup- ply) in moderns and that demand tends to be more robust and at lower prices, moderns may well be hurt much less. Obviously it would depend on the nature and cause of the correction but if it's caused by demographic forces then moderns would do relatively well.
So, let's say for the sake of arguement that since the casinos starting moving to a COINLESS system, and most other monetary exchanges are done with plastic (even toll bridges and roads in many cases)... the mint sees it necessary to cut back on production of quarters, dimes,nickels and cents. the Presidential dollars are driven only by collector demand, and voila, instant case of demand overwhelming the supply. Now if the whole thing crashes.... we just gotta have faith that our air bags work.
~less than my two cents worth is not even food for thought ~
edit to respond to red tiger below me.... good point on the crash, but then there are still the Dansco/Whitman type collectors putting HIGH GRADE material, cracked outta them slabs just to see a "type" set together, or series. It isn't going to go away ! The TOP POPS would even get cracked out if the right person were to be putting together an album of RAW material.
<< <i>I've never spoken here about my opinion of what would happen if the modern market tanked because many people would have felt it was just self serving. First let me say that it seems highly improbable that it could happen. It would require a massive decrease in demand which could only be imposed from outside the hobby. ...
It's all a moot point since it's improbable but might be something to consider. >>
I concede the point that demand is strong, and most likely to get stronger.
However, no one has responded to my point about supply. Supply is controlled by a handful of people at the top tier grading services, primarily PCGS. NGC, ICG, ANACS and other modern slabs just don't carry the same premiums. If God forbid, something happened to a small number of key personel, or some other disaster befell the company, the golden goose could be gone. The existing coins will still have some value, but the market will lose a lot of steam if people can not "make" any more. Dealers will lose interest because there will be little new money to be made, and I believe that the majority of collectors will follow them out the door.
Riddle me this: What happened to the prices on NGC moderns when they started issuing PF70s? What would happen if PCGS made a similar business decision and started giving out a similar percentage of 70s Initially a big boom in resubmits, but a collapse in value for anyone holding an existing PF70. This is out of the control of the dealers and collectors, so anyone with big money in them is taking a leap of faith and placing a big bet on the continuing health and success of PCGS. Yes, PF70s are only one segment of the market, but take any grade you like and transpose the numbers.
Even the most ardent modern supporters have to see that the "crash" has already occurred for those collectors who bought ICG and NGC PF70 coins early on. To think it can't/won't happen for PCGS coins takes a lot of faith and in my opinion is whistling past the grave. For now, PCGS is stable and isn't likely to rattle their modern money tree. However, in five years? In ten years? In twenty? In fifty? Who knows? Don't fool yourself, the current high prices are extremely dependent on the marketing strength and discipline of one grading service. If something happens to that company, the other companies do not have the muscle to quickly step in and take up the slack.
Even if collectors' tastes took a big turn and all the grading services went out of business these coins would still be collected, top grades would still be rare. The big problem is that we'd be back to where we were in the preinternet days when it was overly difficult to find the best coins except with the great rarities. One could look at thousands of rolls of 1953-S Franklins and never find the best coin or even a very good one. If he wanted the finest 1804 dollar it was easy enough to make a few calls and locate it but it might be decades until it was available for sale.
Third tier grading companies have graded classic coins to the detriment of collectors as well.
Wouldn't it be great if they did? There are two types of people that buy coins, collectors and dealers/investors. If the market tanks, the dealers/investors might be hurt in the short term, but us collectors will be able to upgrade at a a cheaper price. From a collectors viewpoint, I have lived thru the so called coin resession of the 80's and 90's, so what, most value returned.
I'm not worried if the moderns do crash, I collect for the fun of collecting, as a hobby. It would be nice if the value would only go up, but then everyone would be collecting/hoarding for investment only, and where is the fun of that?
I say, in my humble opinion, if you like a series, collect it, don't worry about what someone else will say about it. If someone else dosn't have the good taste or forthought to collect the humble and magnificent Kennedy series, I don't put them down, I just consider that there is more for me to choose from.
Even if PCGS went away and the coins were left to fend for themselves, I don't think you'd get people to agree on what a PF68 to PF to PF70 is. It would be anarchy and a field day for unscrupulous sellers. The order today is supplied by PCGS. With PCGS missing I would agree with Red Tiger. The value given to PF 68 and PF69 classic Barbers for example is also given by PCGS. 20 years ago, you couldn't get those premiums because no two dealers could even agree as to what was higher than superb gem PF67 after factoring in eye appeal, strike, mint made defects, etc. The high end market only exists in strength because of them. There might be only a handful of people in the world who can distinguish a PF68 barber from a PF69 one. Would you believe anyone when buying such a coin raw?
<< <i>Even if collectors' tastes took a big turn and all the grading services went out of business these coins would still be collected, top grades would still be rare. The big problem is that we'd be back to where we were in the preinternet days when it was overly difficult to find the best coins except with the great rarities. One could look at thousands of rolls of 1953-S Franklins and never find the best coin or even a very good one. If he wanted the finest 1804 dollar it was easy enough to make a few calls and locate it but it might be decades until it was available for sale.
Third tier grading companies have graded classic coins to the detriment of collectors as well. >>
Okay, time for a "Pepsi" challenge. How much premium do dealers and/or collectors pay for a nice ICG PF70 over the average ICG PF70? My guess is 10% maybe 25% on a good day. Dealers in particular know that no coin is a lock PCGS 70, and bid accordingly. Now, how does that price for a nice ICG PF70 compare to what an average NGC PF70 sells for? How does it compare to an average PCGS PF70? End of story. QED.
The reality is that PCGS is holding the dam together with their finger in the dike. Every other grading company has looked for more submissions by giving out more 70s, even the new ANACS. If PCGS ever takes their finger out of the supply dike, look out below for anyone who owns one now. The entire market could quickly look like the market for ICG 70s, a modest premium for the nicest coins but nothing like the 5x, 10x or 50x that is seen for PCGS coins between 69 and 70. Modern collectors have seen it happen twice already. They got their picnic baskets stolen when ICG started up and many collectors paid big money for the first few ICG 70s. Same deal with the first few NGC 70s, big money was spent, big money was lost.
Just for comparison, take the "dirty gold" that RYK collects. Does anyone think it would make more than a 10% difference in the price of these classic coins if all the current grading companies went out of business overnight and were replaced by new grading companies? Would it matter if the new company calls a former XF40 a VF30 or AU50? A little bit but overall the market would adjust and stabilize. There is little to no wiggle room on the top pops in moderns. It is a fragile, thin market, that's why virtually no dealer has standing offers on them, and those that do, have offers that are like 50% below auction prices, and 75% below magazine ad retail.
I always say, collect what you like. If someone likes moderns great. If someone wants to build a registry set, that is great too. However, collectors need to go in with their eyes open, and not buy into the "happy talk" of the dealers who are selling the coins. This goes double for moderns because of the thin markets and high margins.
The reality is that PCGS is holding the dam together with their finger in the dike. Every other grading company has looked for more submissions by giving out more 70s, even the new ANACS. If PCGS ever takes their finger out of the supply dike, look out below for anyone who owns one now. The entire market could quickly look like the market for ICG 70s, a modest premium for the nicest coins but nothing like the 5x, 10x or 50x that is seen for PCGS coins between 69 and 70. Modern collectors have seen it happen twice already. They got their picnic baskets stolen when ICG started up and many collectors paid big money for the first few ICG 70s. Same deal with the first few NGC 70s, big money was spent, big money was lost.
>>
I wrote out a response and blew it away because my knowledge of this segment of the market is not very deep. I do know couple things though; there is a difference between PR-69 and PR-70 and PCGS (and NGC) wouldn't intentionally destroy these markets by misgrading or changing their grading standards. Unlike RYK's dirty gold or rare clad varieties this market would probably be sev- erely damaged by not having a grading company simply because many people can not spot the difference between 69 and 70.
Compared to the staggering losses on Morgan dollars in 1989 or even those caused by overgrading in the pre-TPG days, these losses you refer to were miniscule at most. Millions of coins had enormous losses affecting millions of people. Certainly smaller losses affecting fewer people are also to be avoided and to some individuals the losses may have been equally severe. But the Morgan market has mostly recovered and even were the worst to befall modern proofs, they would at least partially recover.
People should understand what they are buying or collecting and this applies equally to Morgans and moderns.
Also, bear in mind that the "modern market" is enormous in size with the PR70DC coins representing just a tiny, tiny portion of the overall market. Just this year, collectors who purchased RAW 2005 sets of Platinum Proofs from the mint before the sell out are up as much as roughly 71% in a couple months (based upon the last sales price I just saw on a set on ebay). Collectors who bought the 2004 Plat Proof set back in 3/05 (a year ago) are up roughly 250% on their RAW coins. Even collectors who purchased Marine Commem Dollars and got them graded MS69 are up nearly 250% based upon a recent sales price I was forwarded. Collectors of high grade 1965-67 SMS Kennedy Half Dollars (and nearly all low pop MS Kennedys as well) have watched prices rise as well - just try to buy a top pop AH Kennedy and see what you pay. Collectors of clad 1965-1998 coinage in MS66-MS68 grades have also seen many strong prices for low pop coins, which have continued to remain low pop coins year after year after year. PCGS recently graded a highly collectible Clad Quarter in top grade (first one in a couple years of this date I believe) and the coin did not last a single day on ebay at an asking price well above the Price Guide (which in many cases saw price increases of hundreds of percent last year when it was revised). That collector discovered the "two way market" real fast on low pop moderns! And, so on and so on and so on.
When one "zeros in" on the PR70DC modern market and suggests that PCGS gradeflation (i.e. significantly higher grade through rates) could ruin the prices on many coins - bear in mind the same argument is equally true for the "classics". I remember, for example, the 1930(d) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD (pop 1) that sold for roughly $25,000+ I believe. Then, at one grading event or show a few years back, PCGS graded (as I recall) -3- or -4- more MS67RD coins in a single day. They became available for under $10,000 instantaneously and I assisted a customer of mine with buying one for under that level. Same thing happened with the key date 1934(d) Washington Quarter in PCGS-MS67. None graded for 12-14 years. Then, the first one slabbed and offered out there for $30,000++-$40,000. Within a "flash" a few more graded and one of them fetched only around $15,000 hammer in a Heritage sale. Bottom line- their are potential risks and rewards associated with collecting nearly every series in nearly any grade.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>If someone else dosn't have the good taste or forthought to collect the humble and magnificent Kennedy series, I don't put them down, I just consider that there is more for me to choose from. >>
I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE
Russ ol buddy- you been readin to many Laura threads- relax
she is full of it as it stands.
it should crash somewhere around 2120. I'll be deadby then so I dont care...
Comments
y'all have fun!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Not really "crashed", but short set Walkers took a pretty strong dump >>
That's cause short sets are for pusses.
One pop top modern that's crashed with every sale is the 1982-D Washington half dollar. The first PCGS MS69 sold for $5000 on Teletrade -- nowadays you should be able to pick one up for $400 or less. >>
What about an ANACS MS69?
TorinoCobra71
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Smart question.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>The real question here is not whether the modern top pop market is going to crash, but whether the top pop craze is really changing the view of TPG and collecting/BUYING habits of collectors. >>
Which, if true, and the changed view of the TPGs and collecting/buying habits of collectors becomes the norm, the next question may be:
Will the view of the TPGs and collecting/buying habits of collectors drastically change from this in the future?
I think that the answer to this question is "no". The collecting/buying of top pops will become more commonplace, replacing any "craze" mentality, and contribute to increased prices in this area.
I hope you trademark that phrase!
Can't go wrong with a D/C Kennedy from 1964 to 1971. Any that I have sold have gone for more money than I paid; sometimes several multiples.
Did you see the '64 rainbow Washington in PR68* on Heritage the other day? $1,100? Holy Crap™
Registries have fueled some of the craze with moderns and ultra-moderns but the same could be said for any other series.
If you go for the quality and not the quantity, you'll do fine down the road no matter if it's a classic or modern.
Joe
Probably the most intelligent advice given in this thread, so far.
<< <i>
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
Okay... here's a challenge for you big guy...
Find me a Uncirculated Full Step RAW Jefferson (must be a 5 Step or higher coin without bridges, tics, cuts, etc and gradable) from allof the following dates:
1965 MINT STATE
1966 MINT STATE
1967 MINT STATE
1968-D
1969-D
1969-S
1970-D
I don't care if the coin is an MS60 or higher... but they have to be capable of receiving a grade from PCGS.
Please... show everyone how common these coins are? I'll give you $100 for each coin you find.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation.
Even though it is true the mint made hundreds of millions of Jeffersons per year... and the classic collectors all say they aren't rare... it's funny that they want to differentiate one fact... their coins are rare the higher the grade they are because fewer were minted... but moderns with millions more minted but with a miniscule amount in higher grades aren't.
Here's your chance to make $700 quick and easy. Heck I'll add a bonus of $300 for all seven Full Step Jeffersons for a grand total of $1000. How long do you need... I'll give you a year! Please let me know if you need more time.
Steve >>
Thanks for the opportunity, but I'll pass. I don't have the time or inclination to go looking through modern crap for these "rare" coins and, as I said, most repose in hoards and private collections, are inaccessable, and are not candidates for the slabing machines. If these are your treasures, go for it and have fun.
<< <i>
...
If you go for the quality and not the quantity, you'll do fine down the road no matter if it's a classic or modern.
Joe >>
Quality at the right price. If someone buys top quality from one of those big ads in the magazines they may be buried in the coin for the next 20 years, no matter what that segment does. This goes double for moderns because the market is thinner and dealer spreads are typically higher.
Used to be, the "nice coin" premium was like 10% over an average coin for the grade and buying quality was virtually a no-lose proposition. Now that the "nice coin" premium often is 25%, 50%, 100% or more at auction, people that pay up for that quality today may or may not get their money out when it comes to sell.
<< <i>Now. Right this very second they have crashed. Kazaam! >>
that made my day
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
Okay... here's a challenge for you big guy...
Find me a Uncirculated Full Step RAW Jefferson (must be a 5 Step or higher coin without bridges, tics, cuts, etc and gradable) from allof the following dates:
1965 MINT STATE
1966 MINT STATE
1967 MINT STATE
1968-D
1969-D
1969-S
1970-D
I don't care if the coin is an MS60 or higher... but they have to be capable of receiving a grade from PCGS.
Please... show everyone how common these coins are? I'll give you $100 for each coin you find.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation.
Even though it is true the mint made hundreds of millions of Jeffersons per year... and the classic collectors all say they aren't rare... it's funny that they want to differentiate one fact... their coins are rare the higher the grade they are because fewer were minted... but moderns with millions more minted but with a miniscule amount in higher grades aren't.
Here's your chance to make $700 quick and easy. Heck I'll add a bonus of $300 for all seven Full Step Jeffersons for a grand total of $1000. How long do you need... I'll give you a year! Please let me know if you need more time.
Steve >>
Thanks for the opportunity, but I'll pass. I don't have the time or inclination to go looking through modern crap for these "rare" coins and, as I said, most repose in hoards and private collections, are inaccessable, and are not candidates for the slabing machines. If these are your treasures, go for it and have fun. >>
I think it's very sad as Keets said about some peoples "Naked Ignorance and bias"...
Unfortunately, there are some who will always talk about how others coins or whetever aren't up to their standards...
The truth is... these coins have a strong following... prices keep going up for many issues.
I figured as I wrote the last thread... that you would pass... in actuality... you sumed it up well... you don't have the time needed to actually find these coins... but they aren't rare... just a few people in the world hold on to every example in hoards and accumulations... will those people please stand up? I'd like to give them a hand.
Steve
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
<< <i> their "BALL GRABBING, MOOSE DEEP, CAMEO" devices.
I hope you trademark that phrase!
"THE PHRASE" belongs to RUSS!!!.
<< <i><< PM Marty and ask what his last few 1970 PR69 Dcam Kennedys sold for. >> >>
<< <i>They regularly bring $450 to $500. The last one I sold brought $533, and some have gone north of $600. Oh, and BTW, I paid $350 for the one in my set a little over three years ago. Russ >>
I only paid $308 for mine, and laughed all the way to the vault when I put it away.
eBay Number 8379032514
Tim
So they keep the whole collecting community active and involved and ALL the series benefit.
And as long as the modern market holds, there will be those who will trade for classics eventually.
<< <i>I think the market for moderns is still evolving and to predict what is going to happen with any degree of certainty is really tough based upon unknowns. >>
How true.
History repeats itself.
But read on:
<< <i> ........be aware of trends from the beginning of time when the Washington quarter series was young, just as the clad quarters of the late 1980's to date is currently young. The point of showing the historical information is to demonstrate that what WAS once the lowly rated coin at one time might not always be lowly and vice-versa. >>
This quotation came from my report on Washington quarters of the 1930's which affirmed that we really do not yet fully know which of the "moderns" will be the big winners and which of the "modern" will not be winners at all.
To lump all moderns into a loser category is illogical just as it is to state that all moderns are winners. But which ones will be the winners and to watch them happen is one of the more fascinating stories in all of numismatics.
Just as Q David Bowers saw the magic of the 1955 DDO cent evolve from a lowly and misunderstood "shift cent" into one of the most famous greatest 20th century issues or Oreville watching the 1972 DDO cent following the path of the 1955 DDO cent is so much fun.
I also love the Washington quarter issues of 1982 and 1983.
There will be losers and winners in modern coins! The trick is coming up with a sure-fire technique to predict which ones will win!
On this score, I think coinkat is absolutely right.
<< <i>I only paid $308 for mine, and laughed all the way to the vault when I put it away. >>
I think that'll likely be the last time that seller lists one that closes on Superbowl Sunday.
Russ, NCNE
nice try, major.
........................next!!
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation. ......it's not that it's funny.....read on.....
While that might be true, you can take the next step and say how many of the 1804 dollars are FULLY STRUCK or 1881-s Morgans have zero hits. How about fully struck 1909-s barber dimes? How about fully struck 1853-O dimes in AU or better, let alone UNC.
The list is endless if you want to apply it. The difference is that there are hundreds of thousands of BU Jeff nickels in unc that aren't fully struck, yet probably only a few hundred 1909-s dimes or a dozen or two 1853-0 dimes out there in unc. Once you add in fully struck, or full corn, or full knot, or full forelock, or full head, you end up with zero pretty quick. That's the difference. And on 1804 dollars there aren't more than 15 to start with. Hard to compare a full step (yet not fully struck) 1970d nickel to a 1804 dollar. It's tens or hundreds of thousands vs. 15. I've owned a number of top pop (1 graded) seated coins and none of them came close to the price of an 1804 dollar even though they were "rarer" in grade......and the reason was obvious and well understood by myself and most others.
roadrunner
So they keep the whole collecting community active and involved and ALL the series benefit.
And as long as the modern market holds, there will be those who will trade for classics eventually.
most serious Modern collectors enjoy the fact that with Moderns, there is the oppurtunity to search through unsearched coins for gems or to search for issues that their prior searching has told them to look for. the abundance of material is laughed at by those who don't search as having loads and loads of gems just waiting to be found. the searchers know this isn't so. populations grow but the number of collectors who WANT the coins(read: demand) grows at a faster pace, so prices stay high, though they do drop from levels where the anxious and sometimes foolish rush in hastily to buy.
the notion that Modern collectors engage only in the pursuit of Modern coins to "trade" for Classics is misguided. many of us simply appreciate both arenas. it is possible to collect Proof Jefferson Nickels while assembling a Type Set.
Analyzing the market from the angles we approach them tends to amuse on these boards.
It seems many times there is this underlying message in numismatics that one sector is somehow better than another. But the funny thing is, there is no difference except for age whether it is modern or not.
As a matter of fact, we are just now getting to the NEW Franklins and the new Lewis and Clark coins..... it is re hashing history all over. That is what COINAGE is. So what is the old Franklin or the old Lewis and Clark gold commemorative? These are coins made in the 1900's... that seems modern to me, but to my kids....what are the CLASSICS ( 57 Chevy, Old Juke boxes, early superhero rags, la la la --- they wouldn't even know what a Franklin half looked like if I didn't show them) ?
I believe that if we put more emphasis on the "value of history" the market will all take care of itself and the only thing going to crash anytime soon sure isn't in the coin world.
Periodic adjustments is all you will see when a hoarder floods the market with his MODERN TREASURES.
Russ, I'll give you that. You can sure open the discussion with inciteful provocation. Kudos.
Still, the classics are what made a "wannabe" out of me
its rather simple, and I have fun....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>I'm just a little wannabe collector whom loves all coins minted in the US...
its rather simple, and I have fun.... >>
Well said bee-bopper!
I actually bought a modern of sorts today--a Frankie no less. How do you rate this one (Ebay Item number: 8387469315)?
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm just a little wannabe collector whom loves all coins minted in the US...
its rather simple, and I have fun.... >>
Well said bee-bopper!
I actually bought a modern of sorts today--a Frankie no less. How do you rate this one (Ebay Item number: 8387469315)? >>
Not a bad price on a ms66.... I remember when these were fetching easily in the 250 - 275 range.... you did well....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>I have come to like the modern Canadian stuff! >>
me to!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
because many people would have felt it was just self serving. First let me say that it seems
highly improbable that it could happen. It would require a massive decrease in demand which
could only be imposed from outside the hobby. People don't just suddenly change their be-
havior in large numbers along this kind of parameter (classic/ modern). Any individual part of
the modern market could come under pressure and collapse, just not the whole thing. Any mass-
ive shifting out of moderns would probably occur with a shifting away from classics as well. Road-
Runner is probably right that only a few rarities would be exempt but I suspect these would be
almost exclusively classics. It's unlikely any modern rarities have the kind of attention that would
be required to maintain their price in a general collapse of collectible coins. The real damage would
occur over time as fewer and fewer of the great rarities could maintain their prices. At the same
time though many of the bread and butter moderns would do reasonably well. Sure, $2000 com-
mon date pop tops would get killed along with the rest of the market but a nice choice PA quarter
would still go for a buck. Proof and mint sets would drop closer to face value but they'd still act-
ually be bought and sold. 95% of all coins actually trading would be moderns and the total value
traded might be triple the total value of the classics traded.
It's all a moot point since it's improbable but might be something to consider.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm just a little wannabe collector whom loves all coins minted in the US...
its rather simple, and I have fun.... >>
Well said bee-bopper!
I actually bought a modern of sorts today--a Frankie no less. How do you rate this one (Ebay Item number: 8387469315)? >>
Not a bad price on a ms66.... I remember when these were fetching easily in the 250 - 275 range.... you did well.... >>
You are very knowledgeale on Frankies, and I appreciate your opinion. Is this coin truly a better than average strike?
Andy
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
could only be imposed from outside the hobby. People don't just suddenly change their behavior in large numbers along this kind of parameter .
During the recessions of 1980-1982 and 1991-1995 collectors, dealers, and investors did just that...changed their ways. Some just dropped out for years as they reduced their spending habits. I would say that many top tier collectors left the market for months or years at a time when prices started falling off.
Let's also not forget that a large increase in SUPPLY can also damage the coin market. This is much more likely to occur with moderns than with classics. Pops can change significantly if there are ample supplies to pick through to make coins.
Dealers will drop whatever they need to in order to survive. It's debatable at this point what those "things" will be. You can bet MS65 Morgans will head the list. Comparable moderns will do likewise. I don't think much will come out unscathed.
roadrunner
<< <i>The lasck of a "Two Way" market is a concern to many collectors. >>
That's so last century. There is a thriving two way market. The difference is that it's not "traditional".
<< <i>Many do not understand that a PCGS MS 70 is not the same as an NTC MS 70. >>
The same problem applies to classics and is, in fact, far more dangerous. A garbage slab modern graded 70 doesn't bring much at all, but there are plenty of altered and/or doctored very expensive classics in these junk holders.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>I think that some of the perceived "Modern Bashing" is not modern bashing , but a concern that collectors may not be making wise investments/purchases and they are attempting to provide sound advise. Remember that not many collectors have the "eye" or knowledge of a Russ or a Clad King. The lasck of a "Two Way" market is a concern to many collectors. This is a red flag for many. I believe to "Each His Own" when it comes to collecting. I myself like oddball coins, tokens, and medals. I do think that the market is in danger with 70's being handed out like candy by NGC, ICG, and others. The educated collector knows what to look for, but many, many others do not. There are many other TPGs that border on criminal in their slabbing of coins. Many do not understand that a PCGS MS 70 is not the same as an NTC MS 70. When the dodo hits the fan, I think it will drag all Moderns, to varying degrees, into the crapper. I also think that when the coin market in general has a correction, moderns will be hurt because of the narrow two-way market. Just my 2 cents.
Andy >>
I really shouldn't throw around terms like modern basher on this forum any more. Virtually everyone
has stopped with the bashing except for an occassional relapse.
There is a two way market for many of the moderns. It's the coins that have fairly high pops or are
fairly easy to find raw where there is little two way market. But even on these coins a collector can
sell them on ebay or wait for a buyer if he's not in a hurry.
There's no doubt that if the coin market corrected that there would be some damage in the modern
market as well. Because of the fact that there are actually more people (especially compared to sup-
ply) in moderns and that demand tends to be more robust and at lower prices, moderns may well be
hurt much less. Obviously it would depend on the nature and cause of the correction but if it's caused
by demographic forces then moderns would do relatively well.
So, let's say for the sake of arguement that since the casinos starting moving to a COINLESS system, and most other monetary exchanges are done with plastic (even toll bridges and roads in many cases)... the mint sees it necessary to cut back on production of quarters, dimes,nickels and cents. the Presidential dollars are driven only by collector demand, and voila, instant case of demand overwhelming the supply.
Now if the whole thing crashes....
we just gotta have faith that our air bags work.
~less than my two cents worth is not even food for thought ~
edit to respond to red tiger below me.... good point on the crash, but then there are still the Dansco/Whitman type collectors putting HIGH GRADE material, cracked outta them slabs just to see a "type" set together, or series. It isn't going to go away ! The TOP POPS would even get cracked out if the right person were to be putting together an album of RAW material.
<< <i>I've never spoken here about my opinion of what would happen if the modern market tanked
because many people would have felt it was just self serving. First let me say that it seems
highly improbable that it could happen. It would require a massive decrease in demand which
could only be imposed from outside the hobby. ...
It's all a moot point since it's improbable but might be something to consider. >>
I concede the point that demand is strong, and most likely to get stronger.
However, no one has responded to my point about supply. Supply is controlled by a handful of people at the top tier grading services, primarily PCGS. NGC, ICG, ANACS and other modern slabs just don't carry the same premiums. If God forbid, something happened to a small number of key personel, or some other disaster befell the company, the golden goose could be gone. The existing coins will still have some value, but the market will lose a lot of steam if people can not "make" any more. Dealers will lose interest because there will be little new money to be made, and I believe that the majority of collectors will follow them out the door.
Riddle me this: What happened to the prices on NGC moderns when they started issuing PF70s? What would happen if PCGS made a similar business decision and started giving out a similar percentage of 70s Initially a big boom in resubmits, but a collapse in value for anyone holding an existing PF70. This is out of the control of the dealers and collectors, so anyone with big money in them is taking a leap of faith and placing a big bet on the continuing health and success of PCGS. Yes, PF70s are only one segment of the market, but take any grade you like and transpose the numbers.
Even the most ardent modern supporters have to see that the "crash" has already occurred for those collectors who bought ICG and NGC PF70 coins early on. To think it can't/won't happen for PCGS coins takes a lot of faith and in my opinion is whistling past the grave. For now, PCGS is stable and isn't likely to rattle their modern money tree. However, in five years? In ten years? In twenty? In fifty? Who knows? Don't fool yourself, the current high prices are extremely dependent on the marketing strength and discipline of one grading service. If something happens to that company, the other companies do not have the muscle to quickly step in and take up the slack.
these coins would still be collected, top grades would still be rare. The big problem is that
we'd be back to where we were in the preinternet days when it was overly difficult to find
the best coins except with the great rarities. One could look at thousands of rolls of 1953-S
Franklins and never find the best coin or even a very good one. If he wanted the finest 1804
dollar it was easy enough to make a few calls and locate it but it might be decades until it
was available for sale.
Third tier grading companies have graded classic coins to the detriment of collectors as well.
<< <i>POP TOP MODERNS ARE GOING TO CRASH! >>
Wouldn't it be great if they did? There are two types of people that buy coins, collectors and dealers/investors. If the market tanks, the dealers/investors might be hurt in the short term, but us collectors will be able to upgrade at a a cheaper price. From a collectors viewpoint, I have lived thru the so called coin resession of the 80's and 90's, so what, most value returned.
I'm not worried if the moderns do crash, I collect for the fun of collecting, as a hobby. It would be nice if the value would only go up, but then everyone would be collecting/hoarding for investment only, and where is the fun of that?
I say, in my humble opinion, if you like a series, collect it, don't worry about what someone else will say about it. If someone else dosn't have the good taste or forthought to collect the humble and magnificent Kennedy series, I don't put them down, I just consider that there is more for me to choose from.
Tim
roadrunner
<< <i>Even if collectors' tastes took a big turn and all the grading services went out of business
these coins would still be collected, top grades would still be rare. The big problem is that
we'd be back to where we were in the preinternet days when it was overly difficult to find
the best coins except with the great rarities. One could look at thousands of rolls of 1953-S
Franklins and never find the best coin or even a very good one. If he wanted the finest 1804
dollar it was easy enough to make a few calls and locate it but it might be decades until it
was available for sale.
Third tier grading companies have graded classic coins to the detriment of collectors as well. >>
Okay, time for a "Pepsi" challenge. How much premium do dealers and/or collectors pay for a nice ICG PF70 over the average ICG PF70? My guess is 10% maybe 25% on a good day. Dealers in particular know that no coin is a lock PCGS 70, and bid accordingly. Now, how does that price for a nice ICG PF70 compare to what an average NGC PF70 sells for? How does it compare to an average PCGS PF70? End of story. QED.
The reality is that PCGS is holding the dam together with their finger in the dike. Every other grading company has looked for more submissions by giving out more 70s, even the new ANACS. If PCGS ever takes their finger out of the supply dike, look out below for anyone who owns one now. The entire market could quickly look like the market for ICG 70s, a modest premium for the nicest coins but nothing like the 5x, 10x or 50x that is seen for PCGS coins between 69 and 70. Modern collectors have seen it happen twice already. They got their picnic baskets stolen when ICG started up and many collectors paid big money for the first few ICG 70s. Same deal with the first few NGC 70s, big money was spent, big money was lost.
Just for comparison, take the "dirty gold" that RYK collects. Does anyone think it would make more than a 10% difference in the price of these classic coins if all the current grading companies went out of business overnight and were replaced by new grading companies? Would it matter if the new company calls a former XF40 a VF30 or AU50? A little bit but overall the market would adjust and stabilize. There is little to no wiggle room on the top pops in moderns. It is a fragile, thin market, that's why virtually no dealer has standing offers on them, and those that do, have offers that are like 50% below auction prices, and 75% below magazine ad retail.
I always say, collect what you like. If someone likes moderns great. If someone wants to build a registry set, that is great too. However, collectors need to go in with their eyes open, and not buy into the "happy talk" of the dealers who are selling the coins. This goes double for moderns because of the thin markets and high margins.
<< <i>
The reality is that PCGS is holding the dam together with their finger in the dike. Every other grading company has looked for more submissions by giving out more 70s, even the new ANACS. If PCGS ever takes their finger out of the supply dike, look out below for anyone who owns one now. The entire market could quickly look like the market for ICG 70s, a modest premium for the nicest coins but nothing like the 5x, 10x or 50x that is seen for PCGS coins between 69 and 70. Modern collectors have seen it happen twice already. They got their picnic baskets stolen when ICG started up and many collectors paid big money for the first few ICG 70s. Same deal with the first few NGC 70s, big money was spent, big money was lost.
>>
I wrote out a response and blew it away because my knowledge of this segment of the market is
not very deep. I do know couple things though; there is a difference between PR-69 and PR-70
and PCGS (and NGC) wouldn't intentionally destroy these markets by misgrading or changing their
grading standards. Unlike RYK's dirty gold or rare clad varieties this market would probably be sev-
erely damaged by not having a grading company simply because many people can not spot the
difference between 69 and 70.
Compared to the staggering losses on Morgan dollars in 1989 or even those caused by overgrading
in the pre-TPG days, these losses you refer to were miniscule at most. Millions of coins had enormous
losses affecting millions of people. Certainly smaller losses affecting fewer people are also to be
avoided and to some individuals the losses may have been equally severe. But the Morgan market
has mostly recovered and even were the worst to befall modern proofs, they would at least partially
recover.
People should understand what they are buying or collecting and this applies equally to Morgans
and moderns.
Just collect what you want for whatever reason, no explanation
is due to anyone.
My only connection to moderns is state quarters from circulation,
one of each type in a cheap folder inserted with thumb.
No investment beyond face value and no expectations of such
for the future. It is just for fun.
Also, bear in mind that the "modern market" is enormous in size with the PR70DC coins representing just a tiny, tiny portion of the overall market. Just this year, collectors who purchased RAW 2005 sets of Platinum Proofs from the mint before the sell out are up as much as roughly 71% in a couple months (based upon the last sales price I just saw on a set on ebay). Collectors who bought the 2004 Plat Proof set back in 3/05 (a year ago) are up roughly 250% on their RAW coins. Even collectors who purchased Marine Commem Dollars and got them graded MS69 are up nearly 250% based upon a recent sales price I was forwarded. Collectors of high grade 1965-67 SMS Kennedy Half Dollars (and nearly all low pop MS Kennedys as well) have watched prices rise as well - just try to buy a top pop AH Kennedy and see what you pay. Collectors of clad 1965-1998 coinage in MS66-MS68 grades have also seen many strong prices for low pop coins, which have continued to remain low pop coins year after year after year. PCGS recently graded a highly collectible Clad Quarter in top grade (first one in a couple years of this date I believe) and the coin did not last a single day on ebay at an asking price well above the Price Guide (which in many cases saw price increases of hundreds of percent last year when it was revised). That collector discovered the "two way market" real fast on low pop moderns! And, so on and so on and so on.
When one "zeros in" on the PR70DC modern market and suggests that PCGS gradeflation (i.e. significantly higher grade through rates) could ruin the prices on many coins - bear in mind the same argument is equally true for the "classics". I remember, for example, the 1930(d) Lincoln Cent in PCGS-MS67RD (pop 1) that sold for roughly $25,000+ I believe. Then, at one grading event or show a few years back, PCGS graded (as I recall) -3- or -4- more MS67RD coins in a single day. They became available for under $10,000 instantaneously and I assisted a customer of mine with buying one for under that level. Same thing happened with the key date 1934(d) Washington Quarter in PCGS-MS67. None graded for 12-14 years. Then, the first one slabbed and offered out there for $30,000++-$40,000. Within a "flash" a few more graded and one of them fetched only around $15,000 hammer in a Heritage sale. Bottom line- their are potential risks and rewards associated with collecting nearly every series in nearly any grade.
Wondercoin
<< <i>If someone else dosn't have the good taste or forthought to collect the humble and magnificent Kennedy series, I don't put them down, I just consider that there is more for me to choose from. >>
You rock!
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>not modern bashing , but a concern that collectors may not be making wise investments/purchases >>
That is an irresponsible comment. It decreases the healthy enjoyment of pure BASHING.
Russ, NCNE
Russ ol buddy- you been readin to many Laura threads- relax
she is full of it as it stands.
it should crash somewhere around 2120.
I'll be deadby then so I dont care...