POP TOP MODERNS ARE GOING TO CRASH!
Russ
Posts: 48,514 ✭✭✭
I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE
Russ, NCNE
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<< <i>Has anything in numismatics crashed in the last 4 years? >>
Not really "crashed", but short set Walkers took a pretty strong dump - fortunately right after I sold my set.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Not really "crashed", but short set Walkers took a pretty strong dump >>
That's cause short sets are for pusses.
One pop top modern that's crashed with every sale is the 1982-D Washington half dollar. The first PCGS MS69 sold for $5000 on Teletrade -- nowadays you should be able to pick one up for $400 or less.
I put a lot of credence in your words most of the time, but your THREAD Heading nearly caused a lump....
..... IN THE BACK OF MY PANTS
<< <i>I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE >>
You have to remember most of the "classics" guy/gals lived through the 70's-80's markets when moderns would sell below issue in the secondary market. A lot of plp were/are underwater on purchases.
It's been my experience that most modern collectors won't collect classics... another reason the classic guys/gals dislike the new crowd.
~g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Wondercoin
roadrunner
strenghten. This is assuming that populations don't become skewed because of a hoard or large quantity showing up.
For example, the population for 1999-D GA 25c in MS-67 increased 50% in one week from 75 to 112! I wonder what this particular
coin will now bring on ebay, etc. But then, not everyone is
attuned to population updates so this would be a factor.
This area of numismatics is becoming more accepted and collectible as time continues to march on. I can think of many top-pop
clad 25c that will stand the test of time and continue to bring amazing prices to those interested in this series.
Go sell some and see what you get offered for a lot of it (not all but a lot)
A purchasing manager at one of the manufacturing plants I visit took the pop-top modern route a few years ago and bought extremely strong and quite a bunch of it, now he is in a situation where he needs funds and he is finding that they are very difficult to move in a lot of cases. He's not the only one I know of currently?
jim
<< <i>I could be incorrect but I don't recall ever seeing any modern dealer advertise a policy on buybacks or trade-ins stating a clear percentage. >>
I'm not a participant in moderns, but I have heard this 'its a one-way market' theme before - i.e. dealers will sell, but not buy material.
Is that true? And even if it is, does it matter? I expect that if Russ or any other owner wanted to sell his or her coins they would have many venues or ways to do that.
What scares me is POP TOP new release coins.
<< <i>We can all view a price guide and see what it states for value.
Go sell some and see what you get offered for a lot of it (not all but a lot) >>
I've sold many.
<< <i>And even if it is, does it matter? I expect that if Russ or any other owner wanted to sell his or her coins they would have many venues or ways to do that. >>
This is what the moderns bashers fail to realize. There is a HUGE two-way market; it just isn't the traditional "dealer" market that they're used to.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Russ, serious question, what do you define as Moderns? >>
My personal definition is 1948 to date, but I think that can be broken in to sub-groups.
Russ, NCNE
PM Marty and ask what his last few 1970 PR69 Dcam Kennedys sold for. You'll be surprised. They aren't weak. The price guide is about right for a nice coin, and low for a superb one. I suppose bulk stuff is soft, but tough coins aren't. My last 72 t2 Ike in MS64 did $450 with 17 bidders. The MS63 from the same invoice did $125.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>We can all view a price guide and see what it states for value.
Go sell some and see what you get offered for a lot of it (not all but a lot)
A purchasing manager at one of the manufacturing plants I visit took the pop-top modern route a few years ago and bought extremely strong and quite a bunch of it, now he is in a situation where he needs funds and he is finding that they are very difficult to move in a lot of cases. He's not the only one I know of currently?
jim >>
There are classics that are hard to sell also. I'm guessing that these were proofs. There's nothing wrong with proofs and there are many that are underpriced but these markets are a little thinner compared to the supply. There are also much larger numbers of raw coins so that dealers can use these for stock rather than purchases from collectors. But as been pointed out countless times the modern markets are very diverse. What applies to some moderns has no bearing on others. Most of the bashing is people who look at a small segment of a modern market and then try to apply that to every coin in that segment and every other segment as well. It would be akin to saying no one should by any raw classics because many '14-D cents are counterfeit or that collecting classics is stupid because so many of the coins have been doctored or cleaned.
All collectors should sell some coins from time to time to learn what coins are really worth and how the market operates. Most of the modern collectors who have taken this advice have done pretty well.
<< <i>PM Marty and ask what his last few 1970 PR69 Dcam Kennedys sold for. >>
They regularly bring $450 to $500. The last one I sold brought $533, and some have gone north of $600. Oh, and BTW, I paid $350 for the one in my set a little over three years ago.
Russ, NCNE
1. The US Mint has improved their Manufacturing processes so quality has improved.
2. Quite a few new collectors purchasing moderns, i.e., State Quarters, etc.
3. Number of offerings from the US Mint.
In the '80's they told me that it was insane to waste time and money on junk.
In the '90's they told me that all the price increases were the result of pentup demand and they'd languish at current levels forever.
This century some tell me that it's just a matter of time till people come to their senses and dump all this crap.
The best thing about moderns is yet to be discovered by the main stream hobby; They're a lot of fun. When this is discovered the common wisdom will be that there's easy money in moderns and then it will be time to sell.
<< <i>I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE >>
I agree wholehartedly--it's the classic "bigger fool" syndrome.
One thing about Don, Marty and Russ, is you guys have the knowledge to find them and make them so many times your initial cost is minimal compared to the end guy that has to pay full retail for them, then resell them later at a profit. Russ, also finds coins that are already holdered, but may be hazed, or crappy, then re-submits after a working. All three of you also have experince in the proper and correct venues to move/ sell these items. Your local shops, shows and such do not buy these things, at least in this area. Thier are a few exceptions like certain SMS kennedies and such, but very little intrest locally.
jim
What moderns have going for them, is that people buying them tend to be much younger in age than the average coin collector. Demographics mean that most of them have yet to reach peak earning years. So this bodes well for the future, not poorly.
However, supply for top pops is in the hands of a few people at the top tier grading companies. When ICG started up and handed out 70s like cotton candy, all those who bought early were hosed. When NGC decided to make PF70s, all NGC PF69s took a hit and all those who bought NGC 70s early took huge losses. So there are two "crashes" already, albeit small populations of collectors, but collectors that lost real money, often lots of money.
Then there are those dealers who sell pop tops at huge premiums backed by big ads in the magazines. Those who buy from these ads are lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar for most of their coins. An uneducated group of buyers, because these same coins go for much less at other venues, but a third group of modern collectors that has lost real money, often lots of it.
What does that leave? Those who make their own coins like the original poster. Those who buy at auction, have a discriminating eye and have stuck with PCGS only. What percentage of all modern collectors is this? I would guess 50-50, and that 50% of modern top pop collectors have already seen major losses on some of their coins. No amount of demand will ever make these collectors whole because the supply spigot is at full throttle at ICG and NGC.
The big risk that I see is that the entire future dances on the head of a pin at PCGS with a very small circle of people. If PCGS makes major changes, like NGC did a few years back, the entire market can go poof overnight. PCGS probably will not intentionally do this, but other factors such as illness or accidents involving some of the major players and the rug might be pulled out overnight.
Some may say the same is true of classic top pops. And it is to an extent. However, for most classics, the other grading services have a higher percentage of credibility, creating more of a buffer zone.
<< <i>I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE >>
Russ: I don't really follow the "modern" market but didn't the really high-end proof Kennedy half dollar market take quite a dump? I seem to recall that our own Bear took quite a significant hit (or should I say beating) on his collection of monster proof JFK half dollars when he sold it a while back.
Mikey
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Russ, NCNE >>
Russ:
While I collect coins beyond the US Borders and this whole modern debate seems to be rather pointless... however, I think you have raised a good point about the increase in market values of top pop moderns worthy of a response. I agree that some top pops that you collect have done well... when will the top pops for moderns end? I don't know... except that there will be bumps along the road and there are still quantities of proof sets that probably have not seen the light of day since the owner received them from the mint... For example...what percentage of 1964 proof sets fall in this catagory? I don't know... 5-10% which would be between 150,000-300,000? Then, out of than number, have many could be worthy of a high grade or be of the accented hair variety? Again, I have know idea...
I think the market for moderns is still evolving and to predict what is going to happen with any degree of certainty is really tough based upon unknowns.
Now, in contrast... how many 1734 English Crowns have been certified by NGC or PCGS in any grade? I ask not to be smart or disrespectful, but to make a point. Popularity will come and go for certain coin series, but it seems less likely that there will be a hoard of any George II Crowns found now. It should be noted these have done well over the past 4 years as well... and it may not continue.
It really boils down to what exists in reasonable quantity that can be promoted.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>I've been hanging out here for nearly four years, and for nearly four years I've been seeing that mantra repeated ad nauseam. Yet, the little group of coins I own is worth more today than it was four years ago. So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors?
Russ, NCNE >>
Russ, it's getting closer all the time! Each day that goes by.... is one day closer to when it crashes! REPENT while you can!!
prices will double...
<< <i>[
Russ, it's getting closer all the time! Each day that goes by.... is one day closer to when it crashes! REPENT while you can!!
Who would buy the stuff?? As those who own it look to sell, the few standing buyers will be innundated, panic will set in, and the bottom will drop out.
Reminds me of the 1950D nickel in the '60s--it was up,up,up--and crashed like BeeJeesus.
I can't so much speak to the truth of the statement as much as the motivation to make it. All I can think of is "follow the money"
Maybe smoeone has a vested interest in the failure of Pop Top Moderns.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
PR69DCAM Kennedys from 1972 forward have tanked. So have MS68 state quarters. I'd suggest, as I suppose is also the claim with Classics, it is the the upper % of the cream that rises in value while others faulter.
Lesson learned, Classics or Contemporary coinage: Wise purchasing with an eye on the finest vs filling up boxes with common stuff whether that's 1880-S MS64 Morgans or 1980-S DCAM proofs.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I'm referring to CIRCULATION STRIKES. I don't follow the proof issues.
It's true that a one-way market would seem in evidence now, but somewhere down the road when more collectors voice their
demands perhaps this situation will improve to an actual BID-ASK market.
This is probably a few years away.
Hey, we're all getting older (as are these coins) and sooner or later CIRCULATION STRIKE clad series are going to be pursued by more
and more new collectors. Those issues that continue to be needed will hold or increase their current values.
Of course, these coins will have to have been graded by none other than PCGS!
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
Okay... here's a challenge for you big guy...
Find me a Uncirculated Full Step RAW Jefferson (must be a 5 Step or higher coin without bridges, tics, cuts, etc and gradable) from allof the following dates:
1965 MINT STATE
1966 MINT STATE
1967 MINT STATE
1968-D
1969-D
1969-S
1970-D
I don't care if the coin is an MS60 or higher... but they have to be capable of receiving a grade from PCGS.
Please... show everyone how common these coins are? I'll give you $100 for each coin you find.
Actually the funny thing is your 1881-S Morgan, every other similarly graded Morgan and probably even the 1804 Dollars are more "common" than the previously mentioned Jeffersons with a Full Step designation.
Even though it is true the mint made hundreds of millions of Jeffersons per year... and the classic collectors all say they aren't rare... it's funny that they want to differentiate one fact... their coins are rare the higher the grade they are because fewer were minted... but moderns with millions more minted but with a miniscule amount in higher grades aren't.
Here's your chance to make $700 quick and easy. Heck I'll add a bonus of $300 for all seven Full Step Jeffersons for a grand total of $1000. How long do you need... I'll give you a year! Please let me know if you need more time.
Steve
In memory of the USAF Security Forces lost: A1C Elizabeth N. Jacobson, 9/28/05; SSgt Brian McElroy, 1/22/06; TSgt Jason Norton, 1/22/06; A1C Lee Chavis, 10/14/06; SSgt John Self, 5/14/07; A1C Jason Nathan, 6/23/07; SSgt Travis Griffin, 4/3/08; 1Lt Joseph Helton, 9/8/09; SrA Nicholas J. Alden, 3/3/2011. God Bless them and all those who have lost loved ones in this war. I will never forget their loss.
<< <i>The best thing about moderns is yet to be discovered by the main stream hobby; They're a lot of fun. >>
I agree with this statement made by cladking, as well as his assertion that there are also tough coins to sell in the classic series. This is sometimes ignored by modern bashers for the sake of their argument.
<< <i>As more individuals decide to build registry sets of modern (post-1965) coinage, I think current prices will maintain or even strengthen. >>
Also, I agree with this statement by Cupronik.
<< <i>...but other factors such as illness or accidents involving some of the major players and the rug might be pulled out overnight. >>
A recent illness to a bulk submitter had the reverse effect, I believe.
<< <i>Maybe smoeone has a vested interest in the failure of Pop Top Moderns. >>
That may be the classic collectors and/or dealers, but what they fail to realize is that a downturn in moderns doesn't necessarily mean an upturn in classics. If moderns crash, it'll be along with the classics, I believe, though I don‘t see either crashing.
By the time moderns are discovered by the main stream hobby, they'll not be modern anymore.
Bashing moderns and doomsday scenarios are all just a bunch of sour grapes, imho.
What is a modern? I used to think post-1965 because of no silver content. But then what about the silver proofs?
Then, I thought it moderns must be the current designs like Lincoln cents or Jeffs or Kennedys. But what about the wheat cents vs memorials. All this thinking just hurts my head.
I finally just decided to admit that I collect moderns. FS Jeffs, toned Jeffs, Jeff proofs with varieties, toned Franklins, prewar cameo Lincolns, silver proofs, Roosevelt proofs with varieties.. You know what? I like it.
I can have all my coins versus one top pop early dollar.
Top pop moderns are tougher than you think. You do have to be careful with increasing pops. I learned that on the Roosevelt proofs. But, I haven't seen a lot of PR66+Dcam Franklins recently.
Is it a top? Don't know. Depends on supply and demand. Registry sets are still growing. PCGS is tougher so supply is not increasing like before. If I had the cash flow, I would keep all my high eye appeal coins regardless of grade.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
<< <i>The main reason is that these coins simply aren't rare. Most don't want to pay to slab pocket change, and tons of the stuff is laying around, most intact in mint packaging, that would dilute the top pops. Kinda like a ms65 1881s Morgan--once a $800 coin, now common as dirt. >>
This is another new bash that started just in the last few years. Even in the '70's a few people would be
skeptical when told these coins are rare in high grade (and some are rare in any grade), but it never really
changed their opinion that clad coins or any modern would ever be collectible. The thinking is that all the
good collectible coins were made in the past and this can't change.
The simple fact is that rare coins are rare because they didn't make many. It doesn't matter how many raw
unsearched coins are out there if a coin is rare. The odds that you have a gem modern in your pocket change
are quite poor. Imagine the odds of having a twenty or thirty year old gem and then consider that people
didn't set these coins aside then and some don't exist in mint sets.
And you've pointed out one of the greatest strenghts of moderns; warehouses full won't be turning up for
centuries. Thet won't be found on the bottom of the sea or in Las Vagas hordes. Even the huge numbers
of collections coming on the market in the next twenty years will contain very few collections of moderns
and relatively few raw moderns.
<< <i>I've been hearing that since I was a kid - or variations to the theme.
I can't so much speak to the truth of the statement as much as the motivation to make it. All I can think of is "follow the money"
Maybe smoeone has a vested interest in the failure of Pop Top Moderns. >>
This is the ironic part of the whole thing. Many people seem to believe they have a vested
interest in the collapse of moderns while in actuality the opposite is true. They see someone
spend $100 on a nice modern and feel that it's $100 that should have been spent on a crusty
busty. They think all the action iin moderns is at the expense of classics.
In actuality numismatics and the market is not a zero sum gain. When a collector learns about
coins he has added to the hobby. When any coin increases in value the total value of all coins
increase. Oldtimers often get the idea that one market segment detracts from every other be-
cause that's the way it appeared to work for decades while the collector base was stagnant. If
Morgans got hot there would be a tendency for indians or $10 gold to cool as collectors cycled
into the new area. Today there are large numbers of new and returning collectors. Where we
should all be encouraging these people to learn and grow we instead have a tendency to slam
what they are collecting and predict its demise. We suggest that those who spend real money
in their chosen area are the greatest fool. Instead of grooming the new generation to apprec-
iate all coins we are more likely to drive them away.
This isn't to say that new collectors shouldn't be warned about all the pitfalls in the hobby, merely
that this can be done in such a way as to not belittle their collections or what they've learned. We
all agree we need to build bridges but telling them their coins are crap and offering them a $10,000
New Jersey copper is hardly the firmest foundation for a bridge.
Further, since I will be acting as a quasi public servant/guardian, it is only fair and just that I be rewarded for my selfless and tireless work, thus when my time as the custodian of these coins passes [and it will be before I pass], I will sell them for whatever the market will bear. Further I will not sell them to the local shop, because it would be better to sell them to deserving collectors who want to take up the same mantle I have assumed this day.
(how is the above for pompous lawyer speak?; my lay translation is "I am going to acquire on the cheap, keep and resell at a profit all of the nice moderns I can get my hands on)
<< <i>I don't really follow the "modern" market but didn't the really high-end proof Kennedy half dollar market take quite a dump? I seem to recall that our own Bear took quite a significant hit (or should I say beating) on his collection of monster proof JFK half dollars when he sold it a while back. >>
Mike,
I love Bear to death and nothing against the Goldbergs, but they were absolutely the wrong firm to use for the sale of his set. If it were listed with Heritage in today's market he'd have done far, far better. There was a private treaty sale of a set recently that blew away the prices Bear realized selling through the Goldbergs.
Russ, NCNE
I'll bet he changes his mind now.
RATS! Stinkin bust gold and dollars. GARBAGE!!!! Outmoded, fuddy-duddy coins.
And I was so close.
grrrrrrr.
<< <i>So, oh great seers, (aka "classics" collectors), when exactly will this catastrophy befall us stupid misguided moderns collectors? >>
On April 18. 2007 at 3:25 pm. You've got a little more than a year to bail out.
CG
<< <i>DAMN this thread. I had already found a guy who consented to trade me his moderns for my classics on Monday.
I'll bet he changes his mind now.
RATS! Stinkin bust gold and dollars. GARBAGE!!!! Outmoded, fuddy-duddy coins.
And I was so close.
grrrrrrr. >>
The lack of good material available at the shows caused me to get very bored with collecting.
I just recently joined this forum and out of boredom on super bowl sunday tried to snipe a prf 68 dcam 1968 kennedy
for the cheap. AND I GOT IT.
When that coin arrived I truly fell in love with dcam kennedys with their watery black fields
and their "BALL GRABBING, MOOSE DEEP, CAMEO" devices.
Now I am hooked on certain modern proofs (anything with a buffao on it).
I have even considered buying a complete set of prf69 dcam silver Ikes for around $365.00.
Is the price high?? Who cares. Will it go up? I don't give a schit! If they all crash I'll probaly buy more.
Modern proofs have rekindled a intrest, for me, in collecting.
They Kennedys are plentiful enough to keep me busy with enough rare in-the-grade coins to keep my intrest.
I would buy a set of PRF 69 dcam silver state quarters but they are to damn high. (I would love to see this one crash so i could snatch
a couple sets TEEHEE).
Will I lose money when i sell them? I doubt it. There is enough interest to absorb mine and probaly with a small profit.
Will i stop collecting my walkers and S.L.Qs?? NOT EVER!
This is just the humble opinion of a ole man.
Now I need to get myself a J. Walker black and some ice.
MYAU58WALKERS