The maturation of the Registry phenomenon.
dpoole
Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
I expect the Registry will go through phases, and likely has already.
Phase I: Energy and Expansion
As a new thing, the phenomenon was an inexorable building of better and better sets, with people moving and muscling up toward the top.
Phase II: Consolidation
People join in and drop out here and there, but the hierarchy starts to take on relative stability. In more than a few series, real stars ultimately emerged, with mega-sets and staying power.
Phase III: Cycle of Power
Few new power sets emerge. Those at the top, including those after with a long, inexorable tedious climb, rest happily on their laurels, enjoy the view, mess with a few upgrades here and there, and move on. Over time, the number of "new" power coins that are "out there" tend to decline. The mega-sets start to sell. Over time, the coins in the lower sets aren't new finds, but instead are the recycled ones from the older mega-sets. I think we're seeing this more and more now.
Do you see it this way? And where do you think this evolution from exposition of special coins to public recycling of special coins will mean for the Registry over time?
Phase I: Energy and Expansion
As a new thing, the phenomenon was an inexorable building of better and better sets, with people moving and muscling up toward the top.
Phase II: Consolidation
People join in and drop out here and there, but the hierarchy starts to take on relative stability. In more than a few series, real stars ultimately emerged, with mega-sets and staying power.
Phase III: Cycle of Power
Few new power sets emerge. Those at the top, including those after with a long, inexorable tedious climb, rest happily on their laurels, enjoy the view, mess with a few upgrades here and there, and move on. Over time, the number of "new" power coins that are "out there" tend to decline. The mega-sets start to sell. Over time, the coins in the lower sets aren't new finds, but instead are the recycled ones from the older mega-sets. I think we're seeing this more and more now.
Do you see it this way? And where do you think this evolution from exposition of special coins to public recycling of special coins will mean for the Registry over time?
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Comments
The pricing of the top coins is still inching up. However, I notice that the pops on proofs has grown maybe faster than the growth of new collectors.
I need more data.
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
There are also amazing raw coins still out there.....YES THERE ARE!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
Good analysis...I see it that way as well. Huge "poole" of collectors not registered (pun intended), more to come that WILL register their sets. I'm supplying some of those folks now. Finding nice reds has become really difficult as a dealer. Even the usual dealer "suspects" don't have the variety or quality they had even 18 months ago! There are exceptions, and as you say, many of the coins in the current sets being sold will pollinate the lesser sets.
Unlike some of the other posters in other threads, i do NOT believe there are lots of high quality sets out there not registered. Relatively few in my opinion. Many times well-to-do collectors tell me they are considering selling their raw sets and would I have a look-see. The vast majority of beter dates are cleaned coins that would never slab and shouldn't. What the collectors thought were prime examples fall quite short.
OTOH, I think Stew will remain on top and I don't see him selling his set in the near term at all. He's a collector, and he loves the series and the chase.
Ira
But I would hasten to add that while the Registry Set was a great marketing idea, it contains within itself the seeds of it's own destruction.
Yes, dominant sets arise.
Then the fourth phase is discouragement and implosion of the collector base in the series with the dominant series.
Think about it: what is a fanatic collector -- proud and perfectionist -- going to do when he/she runs into a "Best Ever" collection sporting 14 coins with pop 1/0? How can they possibly compete with that?
They can't. So they get discouraged and leave.
Let's imagine a new wanna-be registry set collector starting to go after Lincoln pennies.
-- What happens? He runs into Stewart Blay. How can he compete with that? He can't, so he gets discouraged and leaves.
-- Or say he starts to complete a Buffalo Nickel collection. Then he runs into Forsythe's magnificent collection. Wham, bam ... No point collecting them if he wants to be #1, and who doesn't want to be the best?
-- Ditto with Jefferson Nickels where he runs into my full stepper collection.
-- And what if he goes after one of the classic series, like the nickel three centers (business strikes)? He runs into the glorious Scher/Law collection.
I don't like saying this, because I'm a Registry Set collector myself, but series by series, as a dominant registry set arises, discouragement, disillusionment, and implosion of the collector base for that series follows.
I saw that happen very clearly with the Roosies.
These lovely dimes were once a vibrant, exciting series widely and passionately pursued by a dozen fanatics, and several dozen less fervent collectors as well. Every day, there were several Roosie threads on this Forum, sometimes five or six.
Then I had the good fortune to be able to blend two other top Roosie collections with my own. The result was a dominant collection. I made the mistake of posting it. Passionate Roosie collectors looked at it and figured they couldn't beat it in a generation and got discouraged and slid away.
The number of threads fell from dozens a month to one or two. And, naturally, prices fell away, too.
Every major series where you see a dominant collection you see a diminution of collector interest. Without fail. The unhappy reality is that the dominant collections are killers for the rest of the hobbyists.
And I say that red-facedly because, yes, yes ... for the series I collect (many of which are not posted), I'm still pursuing the best of the best. My Dad put that into me as a little boy and I'll be that way until I die.
But now, when I nail down the lid on a dominant collection I have the courtesy and good sense not to post it.
And I've begun shifting my collecting focus. For instance, I've begun collecting a new date set of Jefferson nickels, where every coin is off-metal or a major error.
Talk about fun! Can you imagine the thrill of nailing down a 1943-S Jefferson nickel minted on a 1-cent steel planchet (MS63)? Or what a gas it is to bag a 1959 Jefferson graded MS 64 RED?
This collection, when I post it (after I get a camera so I can shoot pic's at the bank), won't discourage any of fellow hobbyists. It will encourage 'em.
And I've begun collecting Thai coins, and that won't discourage anybody, because virtually nobody collects these coins anyway, not even in Thailand.
Anyhoo, in sum, the net result of the Registry Set phenomenon is a marketing coup whose unintended consequences are just beginning to be seen: disillusionment and implosion of the collector base.
I don't know where this is going to end up, but I hope to live long enough to see where it all heads. In the meantime, guyz,
Enjoy yourselves,
Just Having Fun
<< <i>
Let's imagine a new wanna-be registry set collector starting to go after Lincoln pennies.
-- What happens? He runs into Stewart Blay. How can he compete with that? He can't, so he gets discouraged and leaves.
Just Having Fun >>
Hi JHF,
I want to disagree with you, at least as one Lincoln cent collector. I do admire Stewart and Gerry and all the others who have world class Lincoln cent collections. But, I am also very proud that I too have a complete set of Lincolns in business strike and proof. True, they are not world class, but they are in my PCGS registries, at least all the proofs and those business strikes that I've gotten slabbed. I spent many years aquiring the coins with the objective of completeness and satisfaction TO ME that they were nice looking coins. I don't feel discouraged about my positions in the Set Registries. I'm having fun in this hobby and I'm sure there are many, many others like me who love collecting and enjoying their coins and not worrying about the fact that others may have a better set. Sometimes it is not all about the competition. JMHO. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
But, back to the main thrust of your discussion - before "discouragement and implosion" become a foregone conclusion, I offer one other possibly different "phase 4" outcome for the Registry. Namely, that collectors find different, exciting and new collections to pursue in the Registry outside of the mainstream. This can be accomplished through either going further back in time (e.g. patterns, Seated material, ancients, etc.), maintaining the time frame, but collecting coins that have been "Registry neglected" to this point (e.g. foreign coins, Philippine coins, etc.) or moving ahead in time to new series (e.g. Platinum Statue of Liberty series, modern Gold Commems, etc.). And, new series will always be developing - for example, in 2006, I believe the US Mint is planning to release its first PURE gold Eagles in some new format. We have seen special Jefferson Nickel type coins since 2004 as well, which are quite elusive in high grade MS and could prove to be neat "classic" coins 50 years from now. The possibilities are virtually endless for Phase IV!
Wondercoin
After my trade dollar set had been number one for a while and was entered in the PCGS Hall of Fame, I suggested to a few trade dollar collectors that I should retire my set so someone else could be number one on the Registry. They were unanimous in saying not to do so - that my set did NOT discourage them from pursuing their collections at all.
But I also know that I personally am usually disinterested in starting a new set when there is a set already in existance that cannot be matched. For instance, I stayed away from Bust Dollars because of Pogue and Cardinal.
WS
We can't all have the FINEST because we can't afford it or because even if we could the coins are not readly available. That doesn't mean we won't start a set or collect that series....
I have no plans to start another set but I am still looking to tweak my sets and make them the best I can.....I will never have THE BEST but I can have "AWFULLY NICE"!
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
As PCGS gets better at grading some of these series, I imagine will see alot of changes in the Registry!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I think that the pending disillusionment and implosion of the collector base, is just a part of the pending disillusionment and implosion of the base of some societies. As the economic "gap" widens, there will be a lot of disillusionment... a lot. But, there are some very exciting series (in the registry) that are rapidly becoming very popular. I think that the registry is just another, and perhaps a somewhat sophisticated window with which we view the ups and downs of our times.
I always wondered how I would look imploding !
Stewart
Has the Registry really altered the dynamic of building top sets, or just brought it out into the open so that more people can view it, and ultimately participate in it?
I suspect that just as many "shooting stars" appeared and dissappeared prior to the registry. Likewise, there has always been some stability at the top where great sets were concerned, hence certain pedigrees.
JHF, I live with the fact that Gerry and Stewart have sets ranking higher than mine. I would love to be #1 now, but I'm not imploding. I think I will be one day because I have patience, determination, and I am younger than both of them!
DMWJR - Are you calling me an old man ?
I think this thread has been primarily directed at copper collectors and especially Lincoln cents.To get a full scope of the Lincoln cent market,I believe,would be to hear from Andy Skrabalak of Angel Dees.He is without question the most active Lincoln cent dealer in terms of $ amounts AND volume.
My take of the situation is there is a market correction taking place.
I think that $43,000 for a 1914 Lincoln cent is INSANE.How about more than $30,000 for a 1924 Lincoln cent.I personally think there were a few players chasing low pop "P" mints at exorbitant prices. They will bleed if they think the list of Registry suckers is endless.The most common Lincoln cent is a 1909 VDB in Gem uncirculated yey multiple people are paying $1,000 a pop.
I believe Lincoln cents will continue to florish as the most popular coins to collect. However until TradeDollarNut starts collecting Lincoln cents.........caveat emptor
Stewart
If you love the coins, love high grades and love the thrill of the hunt, that's all that matters. Let's face it, to have a #1-#5 All Time Greatest set is a financial achievement more than anything these days. Why should I try to compete with collectors who have bank accounts of $100 million or more? I can't. I think there are some collectors, myself included, who have the bug so bad that we have extended ourselves too much. This is the race that has been fueled by the competition factor of the Registry. I decided a year ago that I had basically gotten "spent out"...and that any additions would be upgrades and maybe, MAYBE a new purchase...but with the remaining dates I need costing $75K minimum in MS64, there isn't going to be much building going on. The fact is, I'm totally happy, thrilled in fact, with what I have assembled. I love my coins. I realized that what I have is far better than I ever dreamed of having, and that if I never bought another coin I would be 100% satisfied.
Of course Stewart needles me..."QUIT WHINING...KEEP GOING...YOU WILL COMPLETE IT!!" Yeah...maybe I'll become a famous sculptor overnight.
If not...watch me crawl.......slowly...
$20 Saint Gaudens Registry Set
I agree with what SaintGuru said
<< <i>The fact is, I'm totally happy, thrilled in fact, with what I have assembled. I love my coins. I realized that what I have is far better than I ever dreamed of having, and that if I never bought another coin I would be 100% satisfied >>
When I tried to tackle the morgan series in high grade and hit the wall knowing I could never finish. Luckily i was able to find a dealer to help me "get out" of what I had and be able to nearly complete my CC set. So now I only am looking for the one coin to complete but am in no hurry and can spend my time and money looking for Vams where it doesn't have to be the highest graded, just finding them is the challenge and the fun!
myCCset
I am younger than both of them!
DMWJR,
Sorry to burst your bubble. I'd bet that Gerry has already made arrangements for his set to remain intact and pass on to a special person should you be so lucky as to outlive him. As for Stewart, he has already informed me that the mint state and proof Lincolns will pass on to me in the event of his untimely demise. But don't be upset, I'll let you look at them!
Jack
The good doctor and ME!! And buzzing at me like a devil urging me to BID, BID, BID!! I can't, Stew. I just found another 1958 DDO Lincoln that slabbed MS66. I have to pay for THAT first.
AAAAND....Let's NOT forget the CHICAGO WHITE SOX. 2005 World Champions! I've waited too long in this Cubbie-infested city not to exercize my bragging rights!
<< <i>I am younger than both of them!
DMWJR,
Sorry to burst your bubble. I'd bet that Gerry has already made arrangements for his set to remain intact and pass on to a special person should you be so lucky as to outlive him. As for Stewart, he has already informed me that the mint state and proof Lincolns will pass on to me in the event of his untimely demise. But don't be upset, I'll let you look at them!
Jack >>
Hah! Trusts are made to be broken, and heirs always sell at some point.
Stew's no Methusela, but he's still older than me.
If it is, then it will decline, if not totally fail. But I do not think that is the future, as it serves so many other purposes.
There is not a series that I collect where I have not contacted, met, and discussed coins with other set collectors.
I do not have a complete No. 1 set, but am totally satisfied with my efforts to date. I have even sold some top pops in the series I collect to other individuals, who now have No. 1 sets.
I have been requested to display publicly coins from my sets that are not No. 1 and not top pops. With very pleasant results.
Having pedigreed coins from some series has improved the overall image of the other sets I collect. Maybe incorrectly, but true.
And without having to sell the coins, to gain some recognition, I feel that when they are sold, there will be more notice taken--huh-Stewart Blay.
So no, I do not see a decline in the near future. Even with 3 top sets in the MS Barber halves, there are more Barber collectors registering their sets, maybe to take advantage of the other benefits involved.
And with the new catagories in Bust halves, I expect to see multiple additions to that group, in all grade levels. And this is a series that no one will complete, as to all varieties.
Now that all FS varieties have been introduced into the registry world, I am still enjoying adding these coins to my set, looking for new examples, and getting those previously collected into PCGS holders. As I and others get them graded, I will be curiously watching to see how my coins stack up having had no previous bearings in the market other than my own eye.
The addition of varieties has rekindled my interest in the registry side of collecting, allowing me to continue to compete in the world of the classic Lincoln cent collectors where the best coins are held in strong hands. By 2009, there will be 474 coins in the complete set, and plenty of room for collectors to jockey for rankings.
So, my collecting interests have moved into these three areas:
1. Continuing to seek attractive (and affordable) upgrades for my completed proof set (whether in a higher grade or within the same grade)
2. Pursuing completion of my basic mint state set in grades that are acceptable to me (I continue to struggle with crappy looking S mint coins)
3. Searching our varieties to go in my "Complete Variety Set, Circulation Strikes and Proofs (1909-present)
I could become discouraged in my registry pursuits if I only had #1 or #2 above to work on, but fortunately now I don't. If there were no registry sets tomorrow, I would still enjoy collecting, but without the competition factor. Some people look negatively on the the competition factor created by the registry sets, but I view it as a way to push me to better my sets. The challenge is still to be sure and buy the coin and not just the holder.
>>I think that $43,000 for a 1914 Lincoln cent is INSANE.How about more than $30,000 for a 1924 Lincoln cent.
I agree, some of the "key" coins are out of control. I am begining to think it may be the investment market driving this. So much for average joe collector.
I think that PCGS has been crafty about keeping the excitement alive by adding new sets and keeping things fresh in various ways. I may underestimate them, but I can't imagine this can go on indefinitely, and we aren't going to eventually see ossification of this sort.
In many of the "mainstream" sets, the "top" is pretty much set, with movement available only when sets retire.
For many newcomers, though, there're a lot of ways PCGS has provided for people to get in and participate.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Since then, I started collecting FS Jeffs and Proof Half dimes. I guess I am an example of the transition from semi-modern to classics. I never bought a classic until this year. I just wasn't getting any opportunities to upgrade my silver proof for less than $20k. The half dimes are a lot less.
Wonder what is next??
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I really support what TahoeDale said wisely three years ago about many of the other benefits of listing and displaying coins in registry sets. Our favorites have been the Barber Halves and we see many great examples of the registry overall as a microcosm demonstrated in the mint state barber halves. This series has the same top three sets for the past 3-4 years with Dr. and Mrs. Duckor firmly in first place. Dale has the second place and I have third, and slowly, very slowly, I have crept up on Dale's set. Not so much that my set has to be number 2 now or ever, but because I continue to find acceptable coins to upgrade. They are getting harder to find and more expensive.
Dale stressed how collectors of the same series often exchange information, meet, enjoy sharing their coins and even making a few trades. This is true among the barber half collectors. The top three sets were all displayed three years ago at the Feb. Long Beach show courtesy of PCGS and it was a tremendous experience.
It doesn't stop with just those at the top. Many of the other set collectors in the series I have met, emailed, or otherwise connected with. I have witnessed some incredible events with my fellow barber half collectors. One collector is now a single coin away from having the entire 73 coin set in XF45, needing only the 1905. He has posted and had numerous people out there helping him to try to find that last coin. I know I keep my eyes peeled for one and if I found one for him, I would feel delighted to have been able to help him out. Other set builders, past and present, I have helped find coins for, have sometimes sold coins to, and have thoroughly enjoyed discussions of coins in grades from AG to MS 69! Thankfully, some of the coins are also imaged for many sets which can serve as a tremendous resource and guide for other collectors, but particularly for beginners.
Coin collecting is a hobby and the set registry serves many purposes besides only declaring who has the number 1 set.
Text
Who was it? Browning who said, "A man's reach should exceed his grasp, else what's a heaven for?"
I knew it would happen.
I wholeheartedly agree with JHF.
I tend to think, to a certain extent, this is why 'complete sets' were created.
Most top notch collections are from collectors that are focused.
If I can be near the top in multiple 'complete sets' then there must be lots of room for collectors with less focus, and less $$.
I think I would fall into the 'jaded' category without those sets.
Just about all registry set catagories have 'specialists' that I could never come close to completing with, so my satisfaction comes from completing sets, even if the coins are anything but Top Pop coins.
Even so, I am finding I am buying less & less coins.
What dpoole did not mention is that the registry is also evolving, from Low-Ball sets, to Satin/Non-Satin sets, new variety sets, etc.
PCGS & NGC will continue to try & make registry sets a game for the masses IMO.
Wow, great revival of a thread. I didn't notice the date at first. Then I came to my post and realized it was from two and a half years ago! Some things have changed and many have stayed the same. What hasn't changed is that Stewart is still the Lincoln King, Andy is still the man at locating what is out there, and prices are still crazy (at times). A few changes include new sets, a few new players (Jack Lee), and Gerry seems to have vanished.
The appeal of the registry is timeless. It will always be fun for those that are interested in the competition. Others will likely stay out forever. It is certainly a dynamic listing of some great coin collections.
Jack