1993 Finest Refractors

PhilG

Phil here,
The spreadsheet I am linking to has three pages. What has happened on eBay since Nov 2004 by player, a sheet about bidders and a sheet about sellers. Data is reasonably accurate but not guaranteed to be a hundred percent. Shill bidding, alcohol and a few system crashes tend to skew things. The real question is what happen to Shane Mack. He not rare. I have 15 but he disappeared from eBay. Like Shane the spreadsheet will disappear in a while.

Spreadsheet

As per number of cards per player, the following is a cut and paste from an old Usenet post. You can look it up on Google
Andy Kimball
Newsgroups: rec.collecting.cards.discuss Mar 14 2000, 3:00 am
From: "Andy Kimball" <cardd...@go.com> - Find messages by this author
Date: 2000/03/14
Subject: Re: should I open up 1993 finest baseball box??
Reply to Author | Forward | Print | Individual Message | Show original | Report Abuse
Actually, I'm almost positive the odds were 1 in 15 packs.
I remember reading it somewhere (probably the Topps Press release - they
sent out 2 press releases about a month apart - the first was for a 198 card
set (no Piazza) and the second was to inform dealers of their inclusion of
Rookie Superstar Mike Piazza) plus we opened 24 boxes of '93 Finest and it
seemed every fifth box had 2 refractors the rest had 1 -- we got 30
refractors out of 24 boxes, the best of them was Don Mattingly & George
Brett.
-- Andy
The Real Chris Harris <harris316NOS...@home.net> wrote in message

Works out to be 192 per player based on 4000 12 box cases 18 packs per box

As far as backdooring, maybe (Rumor) a few sets in 1993 but not now (My opinion) . I’ve talked to Bobo and he is selling off a hoard of 93s on commission for a customer. Seems the customer wants to open a bagel factory. Could be. I bought mine to pay for my kid’s college. She has graduated and I still have the cards. Since Nov 2004 there have been a average of 100 refractors per week. At that rate it would take 22 weeks to dump mine. I bet it would look suspicious but I can assure you I bought most of the cards one at a time. Biggest deal I have ever done was for a hundred at once. Current plans are to go for 5% of the production run. Getting close. After that it is on to 3000.

Short prints. I don’t believe in short prints. Randy Myers is not a short print. Just me having some fun. I got a * in Beckett. So proud. I captured from eBay uncut sheet images of 93 Finest. There all there. Only one of each. No short prints. No double prints.

Phil


My hoard of 93 Finest Refractors

gosteelers

I knew Phil would come to the rescue on this one...

pandrews

great information.. thanks for sharing, phil..

PhilG

Just as a warning. PSA 10s are screwing up the spreadsheet. They appear as ungraded to my program. I will fix when sober. Sorry about the limited bandwidth. I spent all my money on refractors I can't afford a web site.

Phil

My hoard of 93 Finest Refractors

DaBigHurt

Thanks for chiming in Phil.

I was unable to access your link. Hope it comes back up later.

What do you think about the other sellers of Finest refractors? Obviously Bbcardco is selling tons every week, but there's also Gourstar, Auctionhelper (bbcardco second account?) and Bobo.

Your 93 refs are well chronicled, but someone has/had more than double what you had and is selling them through multiple Ebayers?

And most importantly, are you at all alarmed by the amount you've seen on Ebay after going years having to buy them one at a time?

I'll hang up and listen to your answer.

PhilG

DBH,
Here is a cut and paste from the spreadsheet. Its a list of the top sellers and how many auctions they have run. Nobody has listed anywhere near (YET) as many as I have. Ignore the counter column. It is for sorting purposes.

Phil

Counter Seller Number of Auctions From Nov 23, 2005 To Sep 12, 2005
37 bobbabo 1129
26 bbcardco 952
94 gourstar 776
21 auctionhelper 327
57 cp1525 212
106 inlandsales 83
41 bsfastball 80
54 coolblu99 37
121 jose68 25
132 kuhlektore 25
104 indianatransam 23
48 cavaliercards 21
171 rcjdwj 17
183 seinbigd 17
213 Unknown 17
140 member87000 15
36 blikemike2t 12
178 roundballjay 12
19 athletic-attitudes 11
198 tania98 11
64 danielk502 10
169 razzdazzmt 10
147 needingothers 9
161 patmack98 9
192 smonize7 9
38 bobbabo1 8
59 cr6163 8
67 daviscvn65 8
141 mertle11 8
219 xyankee61x 8

DaBigHurt

For what it's worth, I first noticed the wave of '93 Finest refractors hitting the market around May/June of 2004. It was at that time that I picked up my '93 Finest refractor Griffey, Alex Cole and a few others (which was up until then were quite hard to find).

At the time, they were my "holy grails," so imagine my dismay when I saw another batch of Griffeys and Coles go up for sale a few weeks later. And then a few weeks later, another batch came up on Ebay...and another batch...and another batch...you get the idea.

I decided to sell most of what I had over the summer last year and may one day get back into the set, but for now, I'm going to just sit on the sidelines. No rush in picking up the cards now when I know they'll be more on the way. Let the people who want the set NOW duke it out.

CDsNuts

What a nice plethora of info on this set Phil. I think I bought some off you from the newsgroups back in 94 or 95 if I remember correctly. I'm on the same page as you with regard to SP's. Congrats on the *.

Lee

jmbkb4

Phil,

That Excel came through just fine for me. Thank you very much for sharing that with us. It is very helpful. Another difficult card that I haven't seen for awhile is #164 Henke. I just bought one on eBay but haven't seen one in a long time.

DBH, I hope the evidence that Phil has provided alleviates some of your fears/concerns. As I stated previously, we've love to have you back any time.

mudflap02

A few of mine that I bought raw from bobbabo graded as 9's. I saold them to mertle11, and 2 or 3 regraded as 10's - ARGH.

PhilG

Now if you want to know what worries me, it’s the sudden pop of PSA 10s. Look at the percent of total populations of 10s graded from March 2004, 1.296% to August 2005, 5.734%.

Phil

My hoard of 93 Finest Refractors

SMR 93 Finest Refractors Population Report 9/2000
8 9 10 All Graded
861 2691 51 3892
22.122% 69.142% 1.310%

SMR 93 Finest Refractors Population Report 4/2002
8 9 10 All Graded
1035 2808 52 4220
24.526% 66.540% 1.232%

SMR 93 Finest Refractors Population Report 3/2004
8 9 10 All Graded
1421 3294 67 5170
27.485% 63.714% 1.296%

SMR 93 Finest Refractors Population Report 8/2005
8 9 10 All Graded
2009 5520 487 8493
23.655% 64.995% 5.734%

jmbkb4

This I agree with. I know that many people are resubmitting because the difference in an 8 and a 10 (yes, you're right, DBH) is a matter of opinion in many instances.

For example, juanfan recently got 3 PSA 10's because he kept submitted the same 6 PSA 9 cards of Juan Gonzalez about 5 times EACH....

DaBigHurt

As regular submitters of 93 refs for grading know, it's like playing lotto. Sooner or later, you'll get a grader who really doesn't pay much attention to surface scratches or is unsure how the centering works on the refs or if print lines detract from a card.

Those that have been following the cards since they first came out don't need some grader who knows maybe 1/100th what they do in 93 refs to tell them what the grade of a card is.

Long time vets of the set must had quite a chuckle when they saw this grade:



People want to throw big bucks at PSA 10s that look like 8s? More power to them. Savvy collectors should take advantage of this.

If they have some 10s available, sell two or three "Psa 10s" to the label buyers and they'll have the proceeds to fill missing pieces in their set. Having someone pay for your set is certainly more fun in my opinion than putting it together the old fashioned way.

gosteelers

DBH,
You're accurate with the Kevin Mitchell, that looks like an 8 to me, also...That being said, I have a few 10's that I legitimately thought would be 10's when I submitted them...I also have 8's that I thought would be 9's, though...

helionaut

There has to be at least one short/double print in the set, as it's 199 cards. Unless they did something like a 100 card sheet and a 99, I guess they did 2 99-card sheets, which would be unusual in itself, then the late addition of Piazza would require him being printed in sheets all his own.

PhilG

Here are the uncut sheets for the fronts of the 93 Finest. There are a total of 199 cards on the two sheets. I also have the backs and they match.

Phil





My hoard of 93 Finest Refractors

fsjeter

<<Works out to be 192 per player based on 4000 12 box cases 18 packs per box.>>

How accurate is this number if you consider uncut sheets that may be out there. For that matter, does anyone have any idea how many uncut sheets there may be in circulation. Also, could this influx of raw singles that is causing some '93 Finest Refractor collectors to scratch their collective heads be coming from uncut sheets like the ones pictured

Just curious. Any thoughts?

Scott

jmbkb4

Phil,

Are those sheets the regular Finest or Refractors? From the pic, they look like the regular versions.

PhilG

Non refractor version. But the refractor version of the card is identical to the non refractor version. Only difference is the refractor coating. The coating is selective as any skin or white on the card does not refract.

Phil

sagard

Now all you need is to get someone who can lay that coating on your sheets. I don't even know him, but I don't see how anyone can doubt the information provided by Phil. One thing I need to know is how you can keep holding the S. Macks? With all the recent sales there has to be some pent up demand for the Macks.

mudflap02

IKON Grading - The Finest the hobby has to offer



<< <i>Now all you need is to get someone who can lay that coating on your sheets >>

PhilG

The coating has to be selective. Anything white or any skin does not refract on the 93 Finest. The coating is not just a layer of refractive material laid over the card. Course if Topps can do it someone else can. Not sure how difficult without the artwork. Also there would be a flood of Ryans. Why fake a common.

Phil

MiniMaster

Down Go's Frazier......Down Go's Frazier......Down Go's Frazier!!!

Fans we have a knock out!

Fine job Phil......it would appear the record has been set straight on this 93 Finest Refractors topic! I knew there had to be someone out there that could float like a butterfly and sting like a bee As far as the 93 Finest Refractors......you are "The Greatest Of All Time"

DaBigHurt

With all due respect, I don't think anyone knows the "real" answer behind the avalanche of '93 finest refractors in the last year and change.

Just yesterday, Gourstar dumped over 150 on Ebay, making the number of '93 finest refractors for sale this week around 230, which quite frankly, isn't news to 93 refractor aficianados.

Bbcardco has said they're consigning thousands of 93s for a customer, but bobabo, gourstar, auctionhelper and the others? These sellers have consigners too?

Anyway, I hope this thread will become a nice one where 93 ref fans can discuss pursuits and acquisitions.

Any thoughts on the Nolan Ryan 93 refractor promo?

Stingray

Link

Hard to tell if it is a refactor?


P.S. I see there is a Bagwell Refractor in that list of 93s for sale, would like that one, but will be too much for me by the time it is over.

Stingray

gosteelers

I don't believe that particular Thomas is a refractor, but I could be wrong. Sometimes it's worth it to take a chance on one's like these. Following DBH's lead, let's use this thread to discuss the positive aspects of the '93 Refractors. By the way, anyone want to sell their Shane Mack's?

gosteelers

<< <i>With all due respect, I don't think anyone knows the "real" answer behind the avalanche of '93 finest refractors in the last year and change.

Just yesterday, Gourstar dumped over 150 on Ebay, making the number of '93 finest refractors for sale this week around 230, which quite frankly, isn't news to 93 refractor aficianados.

Bbcardco has said they're consigning thousands of 93s for a customer, but bobabo, gourstar, auctionhelper and the others? These sellers have consigners too?

Anyway, I hope this thread will become a nice one where 93 ref fans can discuss pursuits and acquisitions.

Any thoughts on the Nolan Ryan 93 refractor promo? >>



DBH,
I've only ever seen one Ryan promo refractor. You? The one I saw was that questionable PSA 9 that was on here a few months back. How about the Alomar or Mattingly promo refractors? Anyone see these?

Mark

mudflap02

There was an Alomar Refractor Promo that sat on Naxcom for over a year - it seems to be gone now.

gosteelers

<< <i>There was an Alomar Refractor Promo that sat on Naxcom for over a year - it seems to be gone now. >>



Do you remember the price it was listed at?

Thanks.

jmbkb4

<< <i>

<< <i>There was an Alomar Refractor Promo that sat on Naxcom for over a year - it seems to be gone now. >>



Do you remember the price it was listed at?

Thanks. >>



I don't recall that one, but I do recall the Nolan Ryan Promo PSA 9 (opening $4,000, BIN $5000; zero bids placed). Gourstar originally sold that card to the seller (bbcardco) for $1,000 raw... I wish to God I could've gotten in on that first deal.

gosteelers

Does anyone know how many promo refractors supposedly exist?

jmbkb4

<< <i>Does anyone know how many promo refractors supposedly exist? >>


I've heard far less than 50, but I don't know if they've ever released any official print runs? Of the non-refractor promos, it's 5,000, or about 20% of the regular versions. Applying this logic to the refractors suggests about 48...

donnnster

a little OT, but has anyone bought a 93 finest refractor from Gourstar in the past? If so how was the condition? I see one that he is selling that I wouldn't mind grading and adding to my registry but I am a bit paranoid when buying raw these days.

PhilG

I received 14 refractors from Gourstar last auction. Matched the scans perfectly.

Phil

PhilG

For what it is worth, here is a list of the cards from the set that Gourstar is breaking up on eBay that are not included and were not included in the previous set Gourstar broke up. I have no idea what it means.

Phil

Card Number Player Name Quanity I own
2 Lou Whitaker 12
4 Carlos Garcia 54
6 Brett Butler 11
8 B.J. Surhoff 17
18 Alan Trammell 7
24 Jose Rijo 42
30 Bernie Williams 3
31 Gary Sheffield 5
51 Brian Harper 10
52 Rafael Palmeiro 2
60 Charlie Hayes 17
61 Shane Mack 15
69 Doug Jones 32
71 Brady Anderson 20
80 Mickey Tettleton 7
81 Felix Jose 2
119 Craig Biggio 6
121 Gregg Olson 50
124 Jay Buhner 4
127 Doug Drabek 23
133 Pat Borders 7
139 Reggie Jefferson 27
143 Howard Johnson 7
144 Orestes Destrade 16
145 Jose Guzman 24
146 Chad Curtis 34
154 Randy Johnson 1
164 Tom Henke 12
174 Jimmy Key 3
183 Tim Raines 4
184 Orel Hershiser 4
194 Jay Bell 5

Throwdown

<< <i>With all due respect, I don't think anyone knows the "real" answer behind the avalanche of '93 finest refractors in the last year and change. >>



DBH, while you aren't busy running your mouth, listen up.

BBcardco has (or will) sell 8 complete sets. Either through consignment, or outright purchase. I know, because I asked them. Amazing what straight answers will do over mindless conspiracy theories eh?

And to answer your question about why they have been flooding the market, I figured you were intelligent enough to figure it out. Guess I was wrong. See, when a set becomes popular and a greater number of collectors start chasing it (especially wealthy Registry guys like Richard Weigle), naturally prices will start to increase. This in turn convinces more and more people to submit their cards to PSA, and list them on Ebay in hopes of "cashing in." Would you rather sell an ungraded refractor for $20, or get it graded and sell it for $500? I figured the explanation for the influx of refractors on ebay (especially in graded form) would be common sense, but I guess not

DaBigHurt

Are you Mike Wallace or something? You mean you asked them a question and they gave you an answer?!

WOW! that's amazing! I guess while you were busy patting yourself on the back on what a great investigative job you did, you didn't notice I'm talking about not just Bbcardco, but OTHERS who were dumping '93 finest refractors on the market. Guess they all have consignors too, right? I suppose Auctionhelper, Gourstar, Bobabo and co. each have 5-8 sets available from some mysterious consignors too? THAT MAKES PERFECT SENSE!!

Tsk tsk...Slow week for refractor sales. Only about 150 for sale up this week.

DaBigHurt

By the way, I heard about the Bbcardco consignment story last year and it didn't sway me back then and doesn't now. What did you expect them to tell you when you see them selling a thousand refractors? that they were lucky busting packs??

pandrews

DBH, gimme a friggin break.. you continue to talk about "thousands" of refractors, but you've SEEN the facts and numbers of each refractor thats been on ebay..

jmbkb4

<< <i>DBH, gimme a friggin break.. you continue to talk about "thousands" of refractors, but you've SEEN the facts and numbers of each refractor thats been on ebay.. >>


DBH, while interesting to read, never gets "bogged down in the facts," because sensationalism is so much more fun

CDsNuts

What DBH doesn't seem to realize yet is that this set has been primarily hoarded by a dozen or so dealers/collectors leaving not many singles floating around out there. It's not like you go to a card show and see one or two in a dealer's case. Either you see a brick of them or none at all. Now, because the demand of high grade copies is through the roof, those people that hoarded them over the last 10 years have decided to sell at least some of them off. When one guy sells them and realizes high prices, what do you think the next guy is going to do? What would you do if you have been sitting on 5 raw sets? I sure as hell know I'd join in the fun.

Combine the high prices for slabbed refractors, and the fact that only a handful of dealers have around 25-50% of everything that's out there and they have all decided to sell some of their inventory, and you get the recent flux of refractors on ebay. You can't compare the ebay numbers of this set compared to any other because it comes down to a decision to sell for a handful of people rather than the card market as a whole.

Lee

DaBigHurt

<< <i>DBH, gimme a friggin break.. you continue to talk about "thousands" of refractors, but you've SEEN the facts and numbers of each refractor thats been on ebay.. >>



Umm..did you even read the post by Philg? I count around 3,000 refractors sold from Nov of 2004 (he mistakenly puts 2005) up until two weeks ago. That's not including the 400 that are being and sold on Ebay in the two weeks since his post.

Also, the flood of refractors started early 2004, so there are a good deal NOT accounted for in Phil's excel file.

Numbers don't lie, folks. Just go on Ebay and search yourself.

Anyway, we've been through this before. Some people don't want to believe there's something strange going on, fine, but I'm just a bit more cynical.

jmbkb4

As long as you admit that you're "cynical" !!!

But seriously, I think there are psychological/marketing reasons why people are surprised that it is relatively easy to build a set of this product:

1. The internet -- 'nuff said. When this product came out, there was no internet and many collectors (myself included) were 12-year old kids that never imagined I'd have what I do. With the internet, it makes dealers and collectors together effortlessly, simultaneously.

2. Back in the day, prior to 1993 (1991), the "most limited set" ever produced were the Donruss Elite Series cards -- a whopping (but at that time very scarce) 10,000 machine-numbered copies were produced -- remember them? So...when Topps announced the 4,000 case print run of '93 Finest, it took the baseball card market by storm and truly shocked many people that a refractor set could be so "rare." This mindset was ingrained for a few years...

3. I'm from the midwest and I know for a FACT that you could NOT find packs of this product in 1993-1994. I called card shops all over the midwest at that time and could NOT find the product. I agree with the previous poster (and have stated previoiusly) that this product was clearly hoarded by two dozen or so collectors/dealers that are now cashing in as more and more collectors are getting into building this set. Phil is the rare exception: I believe he's collecting because he loves these cards and not to make a huge profit currently.

And today, this mindset still holds to some extent, which I think is GREAT for this set. As I've stated before, this set is truly the best of both worlds. It allows for MANY sets to be made but NOT too many -- this will allow for decades of competition and prices will hopefully be maintained or rise in future years. It will carry a mystique and has its place at the pantheon of the insert set. 1996 Mirror Golds are fine, but the product is admittedly so scarce, you eventually have very few people with the patience/resources to build a set. This is fine, but it's not why I am a collector. Ironically, the '96 Mirror Golds are kind of like the "1/1" cards of the 2000-present card market, which makes the 1993 Refractors the relatively "mass produced" set that was once despised as "ruining" the card market!"

Just my thoughts.

Throwdown

<< <i>I count around 3,000 refractors sold from Nov of 2004 >>



Assuming the number of 241 per player is correct, that's a whopping 6.25% of the entire production run. Only six percent of the production run has changed hands on ebay during the peak "market flooding/dumping" year? If anything, that leads me to believe they might be more scarce than originally thought.

You lose, again.

DaBigHurt

<< <i>Assuming the number of 241 per player is correct, that's a whopping 6.25% of the entire production run. Only six percent of the production run has changed hands on ebay during the peak "market flooding/dumping" year? If anything, that leads me to believe they might be more scarce than originally thought.

You lose, again. >>



Between December of 2004 (not going to count last week of Nov.) and Sept. 12, 2005, PhilG has documented 3,889 refractors being sold on Ebay. Since Sept 12th, there have been over 350 more listed/sold on Ebay.

That's over FOUR THOUSAND refractors in 10 months. Not including the refractors that sold from the beginning of 2004 and those that were sold privately off Ebay (all you had to do was send a message to the big sellers and they were very helpful in selling you however many you wanted).

And you believe the refractors are more scarce than originally thought.


Thanks for playing our game, but YOU LOSE!

Albertdidit

Any updates/theories on this topic (now over 5 years later) such as the print run being 241 or if not how much higher? and of the possibly being that more were printed after the initial print run

otwcards

Having played with this issue back in the day and eventually selling off my most of my '93 Refractors inventory to one collector and a NY dealer that specialized in Refractors, I know that there were about 40 sets of (backdoor) material available early in 1994 via the San Diego area. One of the sellers was later part of the Operation Bullpen roundup.

While the number of 241 has been tossed about as if it were scripture, my best guess is that there are between 300-350 of each. Still not that much, but if you're in the market and have the right phone numbers or email addresses, there isn't a '93 Refractor that you cannot acquire.

GooshA

Visited the BluJay store. Started in May of 2010. Almost a year later, the place is Rockin !

PhilG

There were 4000 - 12 box cases. 18 packs per box. I believe the refractor seed rate was 1 per 15 packs not 1 per 18. Some boxes had two refractors. As far as backdoor goes, Wcsports1 / Consignmints have graded 4155 refractors. I’ve got to believe they aren’t from the original print run. So (4000*12*18/15+4155)/199 = 310 per player. As far as short prints go I do not believe there are any. Just hoards like my Randy Myers.
Phil

otwcards

<< <i>Visited the BluJay store. Started in May of 2010. Almost a year later, the place is Rockin ! >>

Albertdidit

<< <i>There were 4000 - 12 box cases. 18 packs per box. I believe the refractor seed rate was 1 per 15 packs not 1 per 18. Some boxes had two refractors. As far as backdoor goes, Wcsports1 / Consignmints have graded 4155 refractors. I’ve got to believe they aren’t from the original print run. So (4000*12*18/15+4155)/199 = 310 per player. As far as short prints go I do not believe there are any. Just hoards like my Randy Myers.
Phil >>



So after 2005 were there ever large amounts of them listed on ebay again? or it quieted down after this.