MY NEMESIS...The POP report.
saintguru
Posts: 7,727 ✭✭✭
OK...first off, I know that only a fraction of coins may be graded. That said, I have bought many single digit Saints, only to see the POPs go from 6 to 18, 8 to 12..etc. This is not horrible in and of itself, but the trend is disconcerting. Are these upgrades, crossovers, raw slabbed...or the victims of crack-out label holdouts?
Whatever, it sure does upset the applecart when trying to gauge the rarity with the only empirical tool available. And there's something disheartening about buying a 1908 Motto MS65 with a POP of 9...only to see it at 21 two years later!! What will these POPs be in 20 years? They aren't minting these...
It IS a concern. What does everyone else think of this? Is this happening in other series' as well?
Whatever, it sure does upset the applecart when trying to gauge the rarity with the only empirical tool available. And there's something disheartening about buying a 1908 Motto MS65 with a POP of 9...only to see it at 21 two years later!! What will these POPs be in 20 years? They aren't minting these...
It IS a concern. What does everyone else think of this? Is this happening in other series' as well?
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You can get most all of the rarity data you need about many classic coins, especially the early dates, by reading the die variety studies that have been published through the years. Many of the classic works have been updated in recent years, and by studing those you can learn a lot about rarity. You can also check auctions and the auction summaries.
No, you won't get absoluite numbers for how pieces exist, but you will get a good idea, perhaps even a better idea that what you might get by looing at the POP reports alone. An you won't have the limitations of the POP reports which are understated because of coins the services have not seen or genunine coins that they have body bagged or overstated because of crack-outs.
As for modern coins, you are really on your own. Perhaps the POP reports are the best places to get rarity information about those, but beware! The POP reports are far from perfect for those too.
BTW - IF you had read the classic works on St. Gaudens coinage you would have known that the 1908 No Motto double eagle was not a great rarity in Mint State. Armed with that you might not have hung your hat so much on the data in the POP reports that led you believe that Choice to Gem coins had any great rarity.
Ellwood...I believe that there a re very few "hoards" left. The Europeans are very "coin wise" and have milked that cow for 40 years. Central America seemed to have shipped out most of the remaining stuff in the 80-90's. There are some 1922-23's seeping into the market...that is all.
Clark..you can BITE ME before you crawl back to the Open Forum.
Sorry
Yes.
I hear ya, big guy. Why, it's happening in Seated Dollars as well. In the past year, both PCGS and NGC have added a Pop 1/0 coin in MS64 from the handful of undergrades. While not on the scale that you've described [after all, Saints were saved by the tonne
<< <i>What possible part of my post is an attack, Bill? You referred to the No Motto variety..and insinuated that I was not informed about the series. I simply stated that was not the case. I am well aware of the two varieties of the 1908, and made that clear. I think you're too touchy this morning.
Sorry I read the "Clark" comment at the bottom, and thought that it was aimed at me. I'll retract the first message.
I'd ask you to Bite Me too, if it makes you feel better!
I find the only pop numbers to be relatively accurate and useful are those for the 70s. (although checking the 69 pops sometimes aids 70 collectors)
<< <i>Ellwood...I believe that there a re very few "hoards" left. >>
I wasn't refering to just the foreign hoards. I think you would be shocked to see what's stashed away in bank vaults across this country.
Large quantities of coins put away by old time collectors and goldbugs that haven't seen the light of day in decades.
There is no true condition census of Saints. The value of gold itself and not just the collector value of Saints adds another factor when considering rarity or condition census info. You didn't have just numismatists collecting gold. Saints include a broader spectrum of collectors outside of our small numismatic communtiy. Making it very hard to track these coins. (other than the ultra rarities)
I too have seen a large increase in the pop of certain dates in the series I follow. And we know the reasons for the numbers.
The only concern I have is the gigantic prices paid for POP 1 coins, as if they will always be pop 1--NO. But if it is a truly rare date, it doesn't hurt as much when another coin is made.
Example for the Barber halves: The 1904-S in 65 or better will always be a high priced coin. There are now 2 67's at PCGS and a single 66. NGC has graded 1 67. Not a problem, if after 20 years of grading, if a few more are found. And the liklihood of the new coin(s) being pq are not good.
But if you think you have the only Proof deep cameo in 68 or 69, then you are closing your mind to the numbers of high end proofs yet to be conserved.
can be very deceiving because many coins are uneconomical to submit and other
coins lack enough demand to get many coins sent in in any grade. Any fluctuation
in standards will have a dramatic effect since the pops generally show only the high
end of the curve.
But moderns do tend to lie pretty neatly on a bell curve which can be skewed or
even distorted by grading definitions. (A disproportionate number of otherwise
very nice coins can grade at the low end because of excessive marking on most
examples.) One can usually get an excellent idea of what's available just by look-
ing at a very small sample since few coins are required to illustrate this curve.
There are dangers here. It's important to get random coins. If you use coins from
picked over batches or from a run of gems then the sample will be contaminated.
Also there appear to be some coins where everything just went right in their man-
ufacture by design. Somebody actually saw to it that some were properly made
at every step of the process. These might be the result of chance since this is
presumably the way the process is designed. These can confound the pops and
lead one to believe that he and the graders are looking at two different samples of
coins. A good example is the '70-S nickel. A very low percentage of these will be
nearly perfect while the vast majority have numerous striking, surface, and hand-
ling problems.
While pops can be useful for some things and with some coins more than others, they
simply can't tell a collector how much a coin is worth. And they can really only shed
some light on how many exist. The modern pops can be almost more a hinderance
then a help in some cases.
Once a dealer told me that he was CERTAIN that one day a hoard of late date (1929-1932) Saints would break and kill those dates. He seemingly "overlooked" the fact that the ONLY coins issued in that period were by the cashier in the mint to walk-in buyers...never more that 100 coins in any given year according to records (although it's umored that old Izzy Swift had a stolen bag of 1929's..very possible) ...NOT a single bag was sent out...the government was holding all the gold they could to prop up the dollar.
it is interesting and exciting to see what next will come out of the european/south american/swiss saint holdings
I know of a few big time guys who love playing the grading game with Saints. My opinion is that would will see increases in pops and then some correction for when inserts get turned in. It is just the nature of the (grading) beast.
My opinion of banks has two sides, and both could be correct.
Banks being so conservative and taking a long time to MAKE DECISIONS to unload their inventories. It seems to me a lot of european "old" banks would STILL have a lot of gold laying around, just because no bank "officials" signed at the dotted line to release much, or took their time, or just didn't get around to it.
OR
(Par I): Those european banks, during the hard times or not, sold the gold as fast as they could to generate cash or to stabilize, or cover depositors withdrawals. USSR also. And what about when the price of gold went up so much, in early 70's? MELTING had to have wiped out most of these (US) gold coins. (Part II of this statement): When there was melting, do you think the melting pot had high grade saints??? Heck no. The banks didnt care WHAT their conditions were - I'm sure they didnt take care of the coins, just piled them up, etc. And so the "nice" coins, if there were any, were not separated from the rest of the melting pot.
The "surprise" new high grade saints to show up, if ever, will be from collections of classic old rich families. But even so, how much? During the Great Depression era, it was hard to hold on to any gold without spending it or melting it for cash.
I just don't buy the notion that there is hoards of saints laying around, that are nice. Crackouts and crossovers, etc is the game to make big bucks for a dealer these days. That is why the pop reports are going up, IMO.
<< <i>And there's something disheartening about buying a 1908 Motto MS65 with a POP of 9...only to see it at 21 two years later!! >>
It's not really that unexpected when you have 300+ (est?)graded in MS-64.
You should always be cautious about chasing poptops when the the next grade down has a huge population. But I'm sure you are aware of that??