POLL...How many of you collectors are BUYING this "hot" market?
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Many forum members have substantial collections. Most formed over a period of time.
My question is are you .....actively..... pursuing coins at their present levels?
A few years back when I joined the forum, I was hoarding bust dollars and in the market for a decent 1796 quarter. One was on eBay and through emails I tried to purchase the coin through a negotiated early end to the auction.
At the time, bid was $4000 which I thought was, if not low, still "reasonable" consideriing the rarity. We did not come to an agreement and the lot closed at $8000 which I thought was "high" at the time.
However, as high as $8,000 "seemed", it was still within what I call "justifiable" as a range for a coin of that rarity. The coin was a nice Fine.
Today.....at $18,000 bid, I only wish I had purchased the earlier one in order to SELL it.
I can see NO justification for spending $18,000 for a Fine 1796 quarter.
But......if that IS the market, I'd like to check YOUR opinion.
I have been selling into this higher market. Maybe crazy. But I don't see the justification for levels as high as today.
So......are you ADDING at these levels?
My question is are you .....actively..... pursuing coins at their present levels?
A few years back when I joined the forum, I was hoarding bust dollars and in the market for a decent 1796 quarter. One was on eBay and through emails I tried to purchase the coin through a negotiated early end to the auction.
At the time, bid was $4000 which I thought was, if not low, still "reasonable" consideriing the rarity. We did not come to an agreement and the lot closed at $8000 which I thought was "high" at the time.
However, as high as $8,000 "seemed", it was still within what I call "justifiable" as a range for a coin of that rarity. The coin was a nice Fine.
Today.....at $18,000 bid, I only wish I had purchased the earlier one in order to SELL it.
I can see NO justification for spending $18,000 for a Fine 1796 quarter.
But......if that IS the market, I'd like to check YOUR opinion.
I have been selling into this higher market. Maybe crazy. But I don't see the justification for levels as high as today.
So......are you ADDING at these levels?
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Comments
I like ________ eagles a LOT and although they've gone up ( a little) they have not seen the psycho upswings as in bust dollars etc.
There's lots of opportunities. Numismatics is a lot larger in scope than 1796 quarters and the like.
I agree with you though that some of this stuff shold be sold or be ready to pay the piper when dealers/the market says " no, I'm not buying those today".
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I'm glad I got my 1794 half dollar in 2001. They have gone way up since then! >>
Ahhh the good "old" days !
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The first one I ever bought was a lofty $2500.
IMO, of course.
<< <i>One of the series that I mess with IS the early gold eagles. I just sold one that I picked up within the past year and almost immediately they took off. I sold it as I don't see the justification for some of the early gold. A ten is NOT worth triple a five. And they seem to be coming out of the woodwork.
The first one I ever bought was a lofty $2500.
IMO, of course. >>
2500 for what?
Many of the coins on the market even at these levels don't compare ( gradewise) with what was available a couple of years ago. I've seen a couple of the Eagles that I bought and sold in 58 holders being resold as 61's and in one case a 62.
So couple the "new grade" at the new price and that wasn't a buy for anyone except the guy who "made it so".
Be careful!
Better varieties are for the most part undervalued in my opinion, as are the other denominations although the prices realized at auction don't necessarily indicate that. IMHO of course!
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Box of 20
Using the solid market pricing to sell parts of the collection to focus on a narrower range.
For high grade 1950 - 1964 proofs the market seems stable but not increasing. There seems to be some weakness in the 1960-1964 proofs. I think the increase in pops in the post-1964 moderns is scaring the pre-1964 buyers.
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
I can't even aford to reply to this thread
(Priest) BLASPHEMY he said it again, did you hear him?
Tyler
I still buy more than I sell, but it's a long term prospective that moves me forward. I pass on some, I buy others. Ocaassionally I sell a few things I either picked up for a song, or that just don't do it for me anymore.
As a similar example to the 1796 ... a few years back I thought about buying a 1916 SLQ in AU55 for my set of those. It would have matched well, as my set (although still incomplete) is a nice AU/Unc project. It was a pretty nice coin ... but in the end I passed as I didn't want one $4200. worth. It was worth it, but I didn't want it that bad. Do I wish I would have bought it ... well, in hind sight I suppose if I could get the 13 to 15,000. being asked for them now, yes, I guess I wish I would have. But ultimately, I think a Choice AU 16 is now only a 5 to 6,000. coin (or the rest of the semi-keys in that series are vastly undervalued, one of the two).
Which brings me to one point I want to make that inspired me to post this time. It seems in the past few years that some segment of the market speculation has shifted to key dates only, and how these are always and will always be the coins that outperform. While I tend to agree that better dates do better and common dates tend to wallow, I also understand that the horizon that we have to consider for those gains is much longer than a year or two unless we play the coin market like a day trader plays Wall Street.
When those key dates soar 200 to 500% in a few short years, while equally (or more) difficult semi-key dates hardly adjust 20-40% in pricing, and while those keys have already performed well over the years preceding, I tend to think that that the market has temporarily lost it's composure. And much like corrections that we have all witnessed in economies, markets and (for some of us) even coins, sometimes it is better to take a long-term look at value. Will the pricing hold up (and continue to rise) over the next five or ten years after such a meteoric assent?
Personally, I am glad I did not buy Microsoft or Cisco (or any other number of solid "key" companies) in January of 2000 ... and I suspect that someday I'll be glad I didn't "pony up" and drop 15,000. on a 1916 SLQ in early 2005 (despite the fact I may always regret not paying the 4,000. in 2000).
On a long-term horizon (five to ten years) many coins will do well (providing they are nice, original, high-quality and popular enouugh to be collected widely) ... but I think there are many folks who better think again at which part of the cycle they are buying into.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm glad I got my 1794 half dollar in 2001. They have gone way up since then! >>
Ahhh the good "old" days !
Tom
We may find in a couple years, that these too are the good old days.
Selling a few coins here and there as I upgrade my sets but a net buyer even in this super white hot supernova market
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Prices will level in most areas and some bargains are around the corner although a return to pre2000 prices isn't gonna happen.
jim d
The only thing the prices are doing is causing me to hold off on a few things and maybe collecting a notch lower.
good for us bears?
Camelot
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
I do believe the market is due for a cooling off period within the next year or two, but frankly the bull is out of the barn. After a breif rest expect the bull market to continue to run. I see four major factors that have and will change our hobby for the next 50 years, all of which are creating increased demand. These factors have all taken hold after 1989 and are certainly reasons to believe that history just may not repeat itself.
1. The internet has changed everything. Geographic barriers have been removed forever. Literally millions of collectors are putting together sets from state quarters to high end registry sets without ever leaving the comfort of their homes. A huge plus on the demand side.
2. The US Mint is feeding collector interest with real collectible circulating coins. State Quarters, Lewis & Clark Nickels, Buffalo Nickels, and even the Sacagawea created interest. This trend is likely to continue. A steady plus on the demand side.
3. The major Third Party Grading companies have rooted themselves in the mainstream of our hobby. The fact is there presence provides newer collectors the protections (perceived) necessary for them to jump into the game. This provides a sense of security creating additional demand.
4. We don't hear much about this one, but I do believe it is the major locomotive moving the markets. We are currently in a 30 year period of the greatest generational transfer of wealth in the history of the world. As the WWII / Korean War generation continue to pass on, they are leaving wealth at never before seen levels to their children. Historically, the elderly put a financial drain on their children, but this is no longer the case, and in fact they are leaving huge sums of money to an already well to do generation. This free cash is fueling the huge boom in luxury items, of which I consider the coin market. A huge factor on the demand side.
Of course there are negatives at work which will erode demand as well, but even with all the fraud and BS that goes on I believe the the above influences will win out over the problems.
Regarding the supply side, as rare coins are finite the supply can only get tighter. We see tons coming to market and most is being absorbed. Expect the supply to get real tight within the next 5 years and when that occurs look out. You think your paying a lot today? You haven't seen anything yet.
Now, with all that said, there are some areas of the market that will fall hard and fast. I am very careful with all my purchases today. There were many coins at the FUN Show that were priced out of site because of a little nice toning. I do believe with the tone doctors out there that this area my be in for a hard fall. IMHO
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"4. We don't hear much about this one, but I do believe it is the major locomotive moving the markets. We are currently in a 30 year period of the greatest generational transfer of wealth in the history of the world. As the WWII / Korean War generation continue to pass on, they are leaving wealth at never before seen levels to their children. Historically, the elderly put a financial drain on their children, but this is no longer the case, and in fact they are leaving huge sums of money to an already well to do generation. This free cash is fueling the huge boom in luxury items, of which I consider the coin market. A huge factor on the demand side."
Very good point and I was actually considering starting a thread on this very subject. Not only is this the largest ever transfer of wealth, but the recipients are those who have not suffered and lived through a debilitating depression like their parents, and who are very comfortable spending their money on real estate and other tangibles. The baby boomers who are going to inherit the money, are going to spend it.
Tyler
The are lots of things I wish I had done and and equal number that were done unwisely.
When prices rise considerably the risk increases but momentum also rises.
You state that bid on the coin was $4,000 and that this seemed reasonable, perhaps even a bit low, and that the final selling price of $8,000 seemed high. In my opinion, if you thought that $8,000 was too high for a "nice fine" then you had no idea as to the market for this coin and, therefore, you chose a very poor coin to illustrate your point.
The reason I took an interest in your post is that I currently own a "nice fine" 1796 quarter and it is graded by PCGS as F12. I purchased my coin in September 2001 for $8,550; in the previous six months on ebay there had been three PCGS VG10 1796 quarters at auction and each of those ended from $5,300 to $5,800. The reason I can recall this level of detail is that I made notes on all of this before I purchased my coin, also off of ebay. Your experience was 18 months later and the market, based upon Greysheet bid, had not adjusted downward for these coins in that time. Sitting next to my desk I have all the Greysheet publications going back to 1998 and I quickly went through the bid for 1796 quarters in F12. The published Greysheet bid during that time period does not support your view on this coin:
January 1999 bid advanced to $6,850
July 2001 bid advanced to $7,000
January 2002 bid advanced to $7,150
April 2003 bid advanced to $8,000 (this was the time you were thinking $8,000 was too high)
April 2004 bid advanced to $9,750
October 2004 bid advanced to $18,000
Of course, those are only Greysheet bid levels, so I also checked through the Heritage auction archive to see where 1796 quarters have sold in F12. There have been seven 1796 quarters, which were not or would not be net graded, and that were sold at auction by Heritage in F12 over the last twelve years. They have sold at:
PCGS F12 July 1993 $6,700
Raw F12 June 1998 $6,800
PCGS F12 August 1999 $7,200
Raw F12 October 2000 $8,300
Raw F12 February 2001 $7,500
ANACS F12 October 2001 $8,000
PCGS F12 April 2002 $8,600
So, real auction sales do not seem to substantiate what you had thought the market was on this coin, either.
My opinion is that the market was severely outdated in its valuation of 1796 quarters in F12 relative to other issues in the market. I certainly did not want to pay $8,550 for my 1796 F12, but I also thought that that price, for that coin, was a much wiser purchase that if I were to spend that money on most any other niche in this hobby/industry. Also, during the time that the Greysheet bid price inched upward on this coin, I had thought that the sheets were still lacking an appreciation of what it would take to buy a "nice fine". I must admit that the jump to $18,000 from the previous $9,750 was a real jolt, but that was mostly due to my shock that the Greysheet revised their price, and not because I thought they overvalued the coin. I had three solid offers on this coin, before the current jump in bid, that ranged from $14,000 to $16,000. I declined. Today, you cannot buy a "nice fine" for $18,000 as you will have to start negotiating from $23,000 or so.
Personally, I would not spend $23,000 or even $18,000 for this coin at this time, but that is not because I think the coin is overvalued. Rather, I believe there are other coins that are currently severely undervalued and these are the coins I attempt to buy.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
The point of the post was what I consider it as a value AT PRESENT, with which you apparently concur.
So I may have picked the wrong coin as an illustration per the stated BEGINNING price, but as the poll is pertinent to the PRESENT printed price, I ask that you forgive the opening and we'll stay with the present value.
I also would not spend the CURRENT $18,000 on the coin.
Whatever the interpretation, I am only asking for opinions on the current market.
I would buy $20 golds back then every time I got 60 bucks together and then after a while I would find a RARE coin and do a swap with the dealer. Twenties are "stock in trade" for ANY dealer and can be relied on to find a home in ANY market.
I'm sorta doing that again.
I have holdings in many areas and bonds are one.
The bond market is signalling (erratically) a coming recession. And the bond market DWARFS the stock market. They are.....usually.....right.
So consequently I am converting more and more into bullion which .....!!!!!!(((((( IMHO )))))))!!!!!..... is valued INTERNATIONALLY and not dependent on a local US economy.
Now ....when.....if...... I prove right.....maybe.....not likely......possibly.....
I will buy the rare coins when the crowd is seeking bullion.