If your children are unapreciative, simply pile on the cards over your dead body and seal them in the casket. Bottom line is, people always see gloom and doom in the future but we know this to be human nature. As for vintage, I do feel that the post 48 issues are indeed RELATIVELY quite plentiful. However, the pre-48 issues are a different story. I feel that the market for pre 48 issues will continue to improve and escalate regardless of the baby boomers. Here are my key points of reasoning to pre-war ONLY.
Theory #1: Baby boomers collect it because its what they grew up with. My answer: Baby boomers didn't grow up with pre-war, so collecting it for childhood memories isn't really accurate. Anyone that had collected these cards as a kid are most likely dead, or not collecting anymore today.
Theory #2: Baby boomers have disposeable income so when they die, their collections will be sold and will flood the market. My answer: A decent percentage of the cards will prob stay in the family. Even if they are sold, the market will NEVER be flooded with most pre-war issues. These sets are driven more by limited supply then demand. It only takes a few people moving into pre-war to upset the balance and drive prices up. On the opposite side of the coin, if a few people move out does the market go down? Doesn't seem to be happening watching ebay or dealer inventory. There simply is NOT enough supply, and there doesn't seem to be any huge "shoebox finds" coming into the market.
Theory #3: Baby boomers have all the money so when they die and quit buying, the market will go down. My answer: Baby boomers give their money and collectioins to their kids. The kids prob won't sell immediately since most likely they got a nice lump of money to go with the cards. Plus its a memory of their dad who spent a good chunk of time building the set and loved it so.
Theory #4: Todays modern is tomorrows vintage. My answer: Technically correct, but erroneous assumption is a fatal flaw. Yesterdays vintage was NEVER todays modern. Because of this (sorry to those that are tired of me saying this) todays modern will rise fast with hype, then begin the slow burn down. Very few modern cards will hold their value over time. See the 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's. still waiting... and the seventies are already 35 years old. Sure there are exceptions, and I know modern can be more "fun" and has its merits.
Ultimately I see a future where people do NOT automatically collect what they grew up with, and simply skip to pre-48. Nobody today knew the Tobacco era players, but they are hot as fire. Essentially nobody alive today was in their teens even with the 30s era cards were at the five and dime.
Many people do just collect "for pure fun" without regard to value. Great for them. The people coming into pre-war are most likely coming in for the challenge but also for capitl preservation. There is not a better place to put your money when it comes to baseball cards than pre-war vintage. History supports this, and i'm betting it will absolutely continue providing an astronomical find of pre-war numbering into the thousands and thousands and thousands spread out among all sets isn't discovered. With the go-go 80s-90s I think the majority of finds have come out already,a dn this is simply what we have to deal with until the end.
Lets not forget there are 385 different Ichero RCs (from an earlier post for example). Which one is "the one" for the future? Will future collectors see that there ar 385 different ones and say screw it? Or will all 385 have solid demand? Or will a couple be worth tons, and the rest forgotten and lost amid the bulk?
GG Good write up with some solid points - can't argue with a lot of your assumptions, suppositions and positions.
on the today's modern - tomorrow's vintage - I agree, there is so much of this stuff - vintage/old or not - there will be a super glut in beckett holders!!
But the issue for me is rather - today's modern collector will have to assume the position of tomorrows vintage collector - just logical - somebody has to be a vintage collector and I would say, it would be a rare person who starts collecting 19th and turn of the 20th century items at the tender age of 9 - 11?
What I do see people collecting todays modern, tomorrows vintage is certified autographed cards and maybe even some game used issues. You may see a Jeter rookie be wanted by someone here and there, but I think if anything will be worth its weight in cardboard, it will be the autographed cards. I think all the other items, even 1/1 cards be quite looked over. I do agree that vintage commons post 1948 will take quite a slide but the stars will stay strong. I may have never watched Mickey Mantle play but watching the clips and reading about his feats and memories strike a strong interest to own cards and other memorabilia. Players we never watched have 'mystique' just as watching Tom Seaver pitch to Johnny Bench had its own, different 'mystique' to me and that is why I collect their cards/memorabilia. There will be more like us to come but with different focus, but collecting will never die.
I agree with you. 9 year olds are not worried about capital preservation, as its not even their money they are spending. They enjoy the thrill (like many adults still do) of opening a wrapper and maybe, just maybe finding the golden ticket to Wonkaland.
The basic assumption that I indeed agree with is that very few collectors jump right to pre-war simply because virtually every child got baseball cards from their era to begin with. However, when it comes to adult (sustained) collecting when you have a bit more money to spend, vintage is where it will continue to be.
Another note is that most of these HOT pre-war cards have very low POPs in any condition. Using the 33 Sport Kings as an easy example, there are less than 500 TOTAL ty cobbs and babe ruths graded by PSA. Less than 30% of these have graded over a 5. these are small numbers for a set everyone knows and has seen. Now when you look into the "commons" many have TOTAL pops under 50, with a couple dozen better than 5. These are insane numbers for "worthless" paper that is 70 years old!! It would take very FEW people to support pricing with POPs at this level. Plus, vintage collectors are long term collectors for the most part. Buy and hold mentality forces aggresive bidding because there simply isn't high quality raw anywhere. Look at the 100% complete sets. Not many huh? Even if they were broken up, they would be devoured by the other set builders instantly. If these POP levels are indeed even 75% of what is to be discovered, the cards can easily, EASILY, continue to escalate in value.
I also agree we need the modern market and it isn't going away, but the demise of vintage (pre-war) simply just is not going to happen.
One other point that comes to mind: Although there may indeed be a "somewhat" market correction in vintage common, I do believe there will still be demand for those cards in very high grades, ie: 9 or 10. Again, referring to all of the posts about supply, there aren't tons of those cards out there, 1970 thru say 1980. Sure you may find some particular cards that have been "over" submitted but people will always pay for quality, no matter what they are buying. To that end, human nature will always fuel that desire to complete something, baseball sets included. The collector will always want to complete his/her set in the best possible condition. I remember when I started my 73 set, I just wanted to collect the stars in slabs, but naturally I end up with over 660 of them stacked up all over my office.
(edit for spelling and political correctness)
Stan Musial topped the .300 mark 17 times and won seven National League batting titles. A three-time MVP, he played in 24 All-Star Games. Probably, the greatest player who is overlooked and underappreciated.
Clarification: I use 1970 thru 1980 because its on the line between vintage and modern.
Stan Musial topped the .300 mark 17 times and won seven National League batting titles. A three-time MVP, he played in 24 All-Star Games. Probably, the greatest player who is overlooked and underappreciated.
<< <i>Clarification: I use 1970 thru 1980 because its on the line between vintage and modern. >>
Ahhh my wonderful 70's. They are in a twilight zone betweem modern and vintage. I believe (see Frank Smith in the registry!) that high grade seventies will be highly collected in time. More so than now
Some 70s material is tough, no doubt. I just think that most 70s collectors need to collect differently in order to make it tough.
That's a really confusing sentence above, but what I mean is that people like Softparade and DGF, who collect top-notch 78 and 77 cards, respectively, are looking for PERFECT cards. It amazes me that DGF has pulled 9s out of his 77 registry set and replaced them with nicer-looking 8s. A normal NMT-MT 1977 set might fetch $200 or so - but given the amount of work DGF has put into his set, I truly think he could get whatever he wanted for it. Same with Softparade's 78s, when they're done.
It's even more amazing to me that 80% of DGF's registry set was self-submitted. That is a WHOLE lot of raw material to sort through, looking for perfect cards. Show me an "investment grade" 1933 Goudey set and I'll show you something that was assembled with a lot of cash. DGF's 77 Topps set was assembled with a mind-numbing amount of patience, love, and hard work. I'll take the latter every day.
What those two guys are doing is a WHOLE lot different from picking up a NMT set and putting it on a shelf for 40 years, hoping for the value to appreciate.
So in terms of anything post-1973, I think its the truly high-grade material that will appreciate most in value.
But does anyone here think 70-80's raw and unopened will come down in price? I mean, its not overly expensive now for raw cards...but still amazes me the prices that 70s and early/mid 80s unopened sells for. I understand most of its drive is for grading purposes...but even so, anyone here see the prices of it ever dropping or continue rising?
I think on the unopened front, there's the whole lottery mentality. Who knows really how much unopened is still out there? And worse yet, who knows what kind of condition those cards will be in when those packs are opened....centering, corner dings, the works await those who open this material.
I think a lot of the unopened material from the 70s is ridiculously overpriced...there are some sets with no *huge* dollar cards in raw (1971, the set I collect, comes to mind), but can only imagine the price unopened material from 1971 would fetch. Based on the promise/hope of submitting for a high grade card? Who knows.
I think the number of people collecting 'vintage' will outgain the amount of material out there, so there will be a natural upward trend in value for these cards. But for anyone to ever say that vintage will crash and burn just isn't in tune with reality.
Great question and thread. like everything else, the marketplace will dictate. The vintage cards are great, limited supply and the registry has propped up commons, perhaps temporarily. I have thought about who else wants the cards of my youth (59-65 ouch!!), and for the commons that may be a great question. The big stars will always do well. T206's and Cracker jack are strong, everone who bought them is dead, or close. Modern stuff, HUGE quantities, the marketplace will (or has) speak. 80's semistars are a give away, remember Craig Jeffries!! For me (middle age) all I buy are quality vintage cards. But I don't want thousands of cards, hundreds will be great. For fun, and maybe a little investment. One of my favorite sets is 57 basketball, just before my time. Thanks, Bob
Comments
Theory #1: Baby boomers collect it because its what they grew up with.
My answer: Baby boomers didn't grow up with pre-war, so collecting it for childhood memories isn't really accurate. Anyone that had collected these cards as a kid are most likely dead, or not collecting anymore today.
Theory #2: Baby boomers have disposeable income so when they die, their collections will be sold and will flood the market.
My answer: A decent percentage of the cards will prob stay in the family. Even if they are sold, the market will NEVER be flooded with most pre-war issues. These sets are driven more by limited supply then demand. It only takes a few people moving into pre-war to upset the balance and drive prices up. On the opposite side of the coin, if a few people move out does the market go down? Doesn't seem to be happening watching ebay or dealer inventory. There simply is NOT enough supply, and there doesn't seem to be any huge "shoebox finds" coming into the market.
Theory #3: Baby boomers have all the money so when they die and quit buying, the market will go down.
My answer: Baby boomers give their money and collectioins to their kids. The kids prob won't sell immediately since most likely they got a nice lump of money to go with the cards. Plus its a memory of their dad who spent a good chunk of time building the set and loved it so.
Theory #4: Todays modern is tomorrows vintage.
My answer: Technically correct, but erroneous assumption is a fatal flaw. Yesterdays vintage was NEVER todays modern. Because of this (sorry to those that are tired of me saying this) todays modern will rise fast with hype, then begin the slow burn down. Very few modern cards will hold their value over time. See the 70's, 80's, 90's, 00's. still waiting... and the seventies are already 35 years old. Sure there are exceptions, and I know modern can be more "fun" and has its merits.
Ultimately I see a future where people do NOT automatically collect what they grew up with, and simply skip to pre-48. Nobody today knew the Tobacco era players, but they are hot as fire. Essentially nobody alive today was in their teens even with the 30s era cards were at the five and dime.
Many people do just collect "for pure fun" without regard to value. Great for them. The people coming into pre-war are most likely coming in for the challenge but also for capitl preservation. There is not a better place to put your money when it comes to baseball cards than pre-war vintage. History supports this, and i'm betting it will absolutely continue providing an astronomical find of pre-war numbering into the thousands and thousands and thousands spread out among all sets isn't discovered. With the go-go 80s-90s I think the majority of finds have come out already,a dn this is simply what we have to deal with until the end.
GG
Lets not forget there are 385 different Ichero RCs (from an earlier post for example). Which one is "the one" for the future? Will future collectors see that there ar 385 different ones and say screw it? Or will all 385 have solid demand? Or will a couple be worth tons, and the rest forgotten and lost amid the bulk?
Hard to say, time will tell.
GG
Good write up with some solid points - can't argue with a lot of your assumptions, suppositions and positions.
on the today's modern - tomorrow's vintage - I agree, there is so much of this stuff - vintage/old or not - there will be a super glut in beckett holders!!
But the issue for me is rather - today's modern collector will have to assume the position of tomorrows vintage collector - just logical - somebody has to be a vintage collector and I would say, it would be a rare person who starts collecting 19th and turn of the 20th century items at the tender age of 9 - 11?
Just a though
your friend
Mike
I think all the other items, even 1/1 cards be quite looked over.
I do agree that vintage commons post 1948 will take quite a slide but the stars will stay strong.
I may have never watched Mickey Mantle play but watching the clips and reading about his feats and memories strike a strong interest to own cards and other memorabilia. Players we never watched have 'mystique' just as watching Tom Seaver pitch to Johnny Bench had its own, different 'mystique' to me and that is why I collect their cards/memorabilia.
There will be more like us to come but with different focus, but collecting will never die.
I agree with you. 9 year olds are not worried about capital preservation, as its not even their money they are spending. They enjoy the thrill (like many adults still do) of opening a wrapper and maybe, just maybe finding the golden ticket to Wonkaland.
The basic assumption that I indeed agree with is that very few collectors jump right to pre-war simply because virtually every child got baseball cards from their era to begin with. However, when it comes to adult (sustained) collecting when you have a bit more money to spend, vintage is where it will continue to be.
Another note is that most of these HOT pre-war cards have very low POPs in any condition. Using the 33 Sport Kings as an easy example, there are less than 500 TOTAL ty cobbs and babe ruths graded by PSA. Less than 30% of these have graded over a 5. these are small numbers for a set everyone knows and has seen. Now when you look into the "commons" many have TOTAL pops under 50, with a couple dozen better than 5. These are insane numbers for "worthless" paper that is 70 years old!! It would take very FEW people to support pricing with POPs at this level. Plus, vintage collectors are long term collectors for the most part. Buy and hold mentality forces aggresive bidding because there simply isn't high quality raw anywhere. Look at the 100% complete sets. Not many huh? Even if they were broken up, they would be devoured by the other set builders instantly. If these POP levels are indeed even 75% of what is to be discovered, the cards can easily, EASILY, continue to escalate in value.
I also agree we need the modern market and it isn't going away, but the demise of vintage (pre-war) simply just is not going to happen.
GG
(edit for spelling and political correctness)
<< <i>Clarification: I use 1970 thru 1980 because its on the line between vintage and modern. >>
Ahhh my wonderful 70's. They are in a twilight zone betweem modern and vintage. I believe (see Frank Smith in the registry!) that high grade seventies will be highly collected in time. More so than now
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
That's a really confusing sentence above, but what I mean is that people like Softparade and DGF, who collect top-notch 78 and 77 cards, respectively, are looking for PERFECT cards. It amazes me that DGF has pulled 9s out of his 77 registry set and replaced them with nicer-looking 8s. A normal NMT-MT 1977 set might fetch $200 or so - but given the amount of work DGF has put into his set, I truly think he could get whatever he wanted for it. Same with Softparade's 78s, when they're done.
It's even more amazing to me that 80% of DGF's registry set was self-submitted. That is a WHOLE lot of raw material to sort through, looking for perfect cards. Show me an "investment grade" 1933 Goudey set and I'll show you something that was assembled with a lot of cash. DGF's 77 Topps set was assembled with a mind-numbing amount of patience, love, and hard work. I'll take the latter every day.
What those two guys are doing is a WHOLE lot different from picking up a NMT set and putting it on a shelf for 40 years, hoping for the value to appreciate.
So in terms of anything post-1973, I think its the truly high-grade material that will appreciate most in value.
Again, just my opinion.
-Al
BOTR
I think a lot of the unopened material from the 70s is ridiculously overpriced...there are some sets with no *huge* dollar cards in raw (1971, the set I collect, comes to mind), but can only imagine the price unopened material from 1971 would fetch. Based on the promise/hope of submitting for a high grade card? Who knows.
I think the number of people collecting 'vintage' will outgain the amount of material out there, so there will be a natural upward trend in value for these cards. But for anyone to ever say that vintage will crash and burn just isn't in tune with reality.