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The demise of vinatge
softparade
Posts: 9,271 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was talking with a friend today. He seems to think that once all of the baby boomers and the generation that followed are dead and buried there will be ZERO interest in these cards that we all throw money at. Thus rendering all of our collections worthless in the future. 
feedback please!
edited to say that one too many Fosters tonight made me spell "vintage" wrong in this threads title
feedback please!
edited to say that one too many Fosters tonight made me spell "vintage" wrong in this threads title
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
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My 1934 Goudey Set
What do you care anyway? By the time no one else cares to collect vintage you'll be dead and gone anyway.
Can I have your cards when that happens?
<< <i>I'm 24 and collect vintage.
What do you care anyway? By the time no one else cares to collect vintage you'll be dead and gone anyway.
Can I have your cards when that happens?
HARDLY a question of me "caring"
just looking for feedback about a topic that someone (a friend of mine) who collects these cards OBVIOUSLY differs in opinion with you 100%
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Softparade asked a good question. You said you were 24...careful you don't wind up showing your age...if you get my drift.
Stone
Jefferson Burdick - sometimes referred to as the "father of baseball card collecting" wrote his friends all the time about collecting and who is doing it. In the 1930's to the 50's collecting was an adult obsession which then moved to the kids. Some say it has gone full circle and is moving back to the adults. The major hobby publications and card companies are aware of the trend and are doing everything they can to keep the interest of the children.
Collecting may be an inate behavior - so ingrained in our behavior, that there will always be collectors of something. Of course, time will tell - IMO, your 78T graded set will be in the proud hands of one of your relatives who will view it as priceless!
your friend
Mike
<< <i>What's vinatge? I heard of vintage but not vinat-ge. >>
The French pronouciation?
edit: you're a tough audience 2nite!
I don't think vintage collecting will every fall off...there's just far too much historical significance to the cards of that era for them to devalue completely.
<< <i>I think most people start as modern collectors. It's what's readily available and there in front of you. I think a certain percentage of baseball fans and card collectors inevitably always switch over to vintage. They like the historical perspective, they like the simpler game, when players were heroes, etc. etc.
I don't think vintage collecting will every fall off...there's just far too much historical significance to the cards of that era for them to devalue completely. >>
Ax
I agree intuitively. But, what about the premise by some that there may be no one to purchase this stuff and thus rendered by demand of no value? There's got to be a buyer or they will sit on the shelf.
your friend
Mike
<< <i>Dan
Jefferson Burdick - sometimes referred to as the "father of baseball card collecting" wrote his friends all the time about collecting and who is doing it. In the 1930's to the 50's collecting was an adult obsession which then moved to the kids. Some say it has gone full circle and is moving back to the adults. The major hobby publications and card companies are aware of the trend and are doing everything they can to keep the interest of the children.
Collecting may be an inate behavior - so ingrained in our behavior, that there will always be collectors of something. Of course, time will tell - IMO, your 78T graded set will be in the proud hands of one of your relatives who will view it as priceless!
your friend
Mike >>
Mike, when I complete this beast of a set I will enjoy it until the day my son relinquishes control of it. He plays baseball in high school. He has no interest in sports cards or memorabila ..........
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Vintage has it's appeal because it's retro cool. I am 26 and have a decent amount of vintage cards, so I guess I dont' fit the original question of being a baby boomer, since I am assuming you are talking about people now around 50 years old.
People like other things that are vintage, classic cars for one, so there will always be an interest in vintage items.
However, I think our hobby will face a death sentence soon. Younger people do not seem to care that much about cards, there are some that do, but the #'s are much smaller. The hobby will become more of a niche market than it already is.
So I agree that the demise of vintage, compared to today is possible, but I think it will be more of a reflection of the entire hobby as a whole.
Vintage cards will always have a demand due to scarcity. However, because PSA and other grading companies place our dearly beloved items in a little plastic case the amount of cards that will be ruined will decrease substantialy hence, the population of those cards will remain intact. I will not disagree that there will inevitably be those collections that do get ruined via disaster but that will be less than the amount in the past ruined due to dropping a card, spilling a drink on it etc. thanks to our little plastic friends.
So if the population of cards stays somewhat the same and the level of demand drops because of the card collectors population then I would have to assume prices for certian cards would in fact go down. Basic economics teaches us that if supply is greater than demand the price will drop until supply = demand. We already know that the supply side is somewhat stable and only going to grow as more and more cards are holdered. Then what will be the desire of future collectors? The demand side of the equation tells us our answer.
Link To Scanned 1952 Topps Cards Set is now 90% Complete Plus Slideshows of the 52 Set
If vintage ever crashes, I'll be the first one in line with my 5 bucks for that 1956 Topps Mickey Mantle!
loth
If anything, your friend is 180% worng, vintage will continue to grow and modern will fall off. Just one baseball fan's opinion.
(edit for spelling)
When I was a kid collecting in the late '50's early '60's, "vintage" meant tobacco cards and pre-war cards. There were a few of those that I remember - a miniscule amount, however, when compared to the number of vintage collectors today. I believe we have created a bedrock of collecting security.
Or I don't know WTF I'm talking about....I'm not far from knock knock knocking anyways!
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Does it seem that when younger people generations removed from the players go to vintage due they have a tendancy to go for pre-war, or 50-60s? i'm really not sure. Probably not pre-war due to the cost, but thats just a guess.
Excellent topic!!!!!
GG
<< <i>...can you think of a collectible that takes up such little space? I have thousands in pre-war and it still fits in a neat little box... GG >>
Wow, I hope that "neat little box" is made of fireproof material and has a lock on the front. If not, please PM me your home address and your work schedule
I think you'll start to see decline in demand of the some of the lesser stars and set building/collecting in general, but the legendary stars should always be in demand; Ruth, Mantle, Aaron, Cobb.
The main core of collectors with large colllections or building sets in the 50s and 60s grew up with those cards, and are retired with lots of disposable income. They aren't the only ones, but defintely the majority.
So let's say you have a card that bids up to $5000, because there are 3 people willing to pay $4000-5000 for it. When those 3 people leave the hobby, you have 10-15 people willing to $2800-$3500 for the card. And so on and so forth, basic supply/demand economics. You have to realize that these top bidders are willing to pay as much as they can afford (even if it means way over "book" value) just to have the cards they cherish. They aren't buying these up thinking it will make them rich in 5 years, so they don't care what the "listed" values are. This leads to some outrageous prices. What you have is a very very very small percentage of players boosting the prices up by a very large percentage (and this is what makes rare sportscards a bad investment; poor risk/reward ratio).
When this small percentage of players are out of collecting, will they be replaced by others willing to pay the same price? In my opinion, no, because they are the ones who grew up with those sets, who idolized those players; I can't see another generation coming along and having the same type of demand for that material. But "demise", that's a bit extreme.
Steve
<< <i>YES, I JUST LOOKED AND I DEFINITELY HAVE A CAP ANSON CHROME AND A JOE TINKER ATOMIC REFRACTOR. >>
There will always be a collecting community out there. But unless they see the value in this very expensive vintage stuff, don't expect them to plunk down righteous bucks unless the hype remains.
I read last night that the boomers are driving the bus on this high priced foray - unless the next generation perceives value in pursuing the same road, expect a somewhat decline IMO.
So, we come full circle, back to the big debate we have periodically here: embrace the modern collectors for they are our future and the ones that will be picking up these collections which will allow the boomers to bask in the sunshine of Florida for the next few decades!
your future retired friend
Mike
<< <i>I seem to just collect EVERYTHING!!! >>
same here.. i collect all kinda stuff.. as far as cards go, i collect vintage and modern.. i have a warehouse full of other crap too, from old record albums, antique hardback books, vintage postcards, comics, ... i think alot of people will always have an interest in history, whether it be 20 years from now or 150 years from now.. sports cards are historical.. there are people who collect prehistoric artifacts! so i think there will ALWAYS be a decent market for vintage..
<< <i>Your friend is right. I will take all that pesky vintage material off your hands for a stack of shiny cards of a bunch of today's greats. >>
never mentioned my opinion or what "my hands might have" Also never mentioned "shiny modern" either. I love when a thread runs amuck!
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
<< <i>
<< <i>Your friend is right. I will take all that pesky vintage material off your hands for a stack of shiny cards of a bunch of today's greats. >>
never mentioned my opinion or what "my hands might have" Also never mentioned "shiny modern" either. I love when a thread runs amuck!
Dan
Most of these guys are just funnin around IMO.
And it is getting a bit off topic in a sense - I think there is a possibility that the demand for vintage at these kinds of prices just may be a stretch to a non-baby boomer. But who knows? If I were that smart, I would have done a better job with my mutual funds!
As I said before - there will always be people looking for the old vintage stuff! If anything, when faced with all that inflationary crap from the 80's on - they may find 19th and turn of the 20th century items very attractive IMO.
your friend
Mike
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Jeff
Kidding... but I think the premise is off the mark. Vintage cards have the benefit of fairly well established values. The grading phenomena is a great thing.....it is encouraging both protection of these future relics and venues in the public domain that provide documentaion of populations in desireable conditions. Also, as PA and others point out, there is a tie to history. Time will tell what "modern" sets, and obviously RC's, will establish solid collector demand. But the value and demand for vintage is well entrenched.
Some outta left field comparisions, there is still a huge demand in the numismatic world for pre-1900 US coins. In stamp world, the vinatge issues also are holding relatively strong and in demand. If you collect Belleek china, the "black mark" production issues pre-1900 have gained substantially. IMO, regards.
Unfocused, impulsive collector of everything ...
<< <i>I completely disagree with you. I see increasing value and interest in vintage (Pre-1972) cards over the next twenty years. The cards are rare in high-grade due to being mishandled by young hands. Due to the sheer number of modern cards out there and the fact that almost every single one is in mint condition will ultimately decrease their value steeply over the coming years. Vintage (especially star cards) are the only way to go. >>
Sayhey
The time frame that Softparade's friend was using involved the death of the boomers AND the next generation - the oldest boomer right now is turning 60 this year and the next generation - their children is somewhere between 30 to 40 yrs old - that means we are talking about 30 to 40 years down the road.
It is conceivable that there can be a decline in value if my son's children have no use for vintage or modern sportscards and memorabilia. My son is 22 and has no use for the stuff anymore and he lives in a house with a maniac!
This topic seems to have struck a raw nerve or something. I promise you, that all your stuff will be worth good money over the next 40 years - but keep an open mind - that may not last forever.
Later generations may see the truly vintage as a novelty not worth purchasing at the "boomer" driven prices. I have been in the collecting world since 1979 and seriously since 1989 and the explosion of prices is boomer driven IMO.
Of course, only time will tell.
Like Winpitcher, I plan to be buried with my stuff!!!
There will always - ALWAYS - be a market for "old stuff". Whether it's sports cards, advertising art, old tools, coins, stamps, furniture, clothing, whatever. People pine for the "good old days", and always will. People collect antiques, old toys, all sorts of stuff.
There's a place in northern NJ called Archie's Resale Shop. Essentially it's a collection of a bunch of sheds, filled to the brim with ancient stuff that you can root through and buy. There's one shed filled with old sleds. Another filled with old dolls. Another filled with sports equipment.
There's one that's piled high with old magazines of every conceivable era, every conceivable topic.
And people come in and out of that place all summer long, buying everything under the sun.
Ever have a garage sale? I have. People show up at your house at 7AM, hoping to be the first one to find whatever treasure you're dumb enough to put a fifty-cent tag on. They buy it, bring it home, put it on Ebay and turn a thousand-percent profit in a few days.
As long as this country has people, and as long as this country has sports, people will buy vintage sports items.
-Al
Can't argue with that - the Cave-man probably collected and traded dinosaur teeth!
But here's the other issue - value - the boomers have really up'ed the ante on quality vintage - can there be a major "correction" in 40 years or less? There was a major correction in later 70's early 80's stuff.
What do ya think? I for sure don't know?
your friend
MIke
Unfocused, impulsive collector of everything ...
I don't know about modern cards, frankly. If it wasn't for my collecting focus (complete sets from every year the Yankees won the World Series), I wouldn't collect anything manufactured after 1960. But plenty of others jump all over shiny modern cards, so what do I know?
-Al
<< <i>IMO, there will be some downward adjustment on commons. There will be an offsetting increase on stars. Ever baby boomer has kids that the heritage/interest on key players will be passed on to. I'm not Al, but my opinion.. >>
Harry
You're Ok in my book! And Al's gone...I was also referring to a lot of the high priced autos and other memorabilia that the rich boomers have spent way too much - just not sure what it will be when my son's children come up to bat. (get it?LOL)
I agree across the board - there will always be collectors and with money - but: "what will be the perceived value?" Will they bite off on these prices? Just not sure? I could see a correction in some markets in the future?
your friend
Mike