The “market” is (still) incredibly strong AND it’s (still) quite blase/ho-hum....

coinguy1

Recently concluded auction and bourse activity here at Long Beach continues to reflect a sharply divided, two-tier market, one that seems destined to remain this way.

Generally speaking, prices realized for coins of exceptional quality and/or eye-appeal and/or rarity had heads shaking, jaws dropping, eyes bulging and utterances of disbelief exclaimed.
I saw no letup in the staggering prices achieved by special (and some not-so-special) coins.

On the other hand, the generic looking, readily available and/or lower quality material of various types/market segments continues to underwhelm prospective buyers.

And, why shouldn’t it be this way? As is the case with anything which is bought and sold, it boils down to supply vs. demand.

Many so called “rare” coins aren’t truly rare. Nor are they desirable, for a variety of reasons. There is plenty of supply to satisfy the demand for many, if not most coins, at least as a percentage of the total population available. On the other hand, those seeking the really special pieces have little to choose from.

Auction, bourse, dealer- to-dealer and dealer-to-collector transactions will continue to reflect the difference between sight-unseen and sight-seen coins. And, whether various market segments strengthen or weaken, I can’t envision anything that should or will reverse the disparities of this two-tier market in which we all participate.

Looking at my words above, I see nothing particularly surprising or insightful. But, I sometimes get the impression that many of us prefer to view the "market" as a whole, with most areas being strong or weak at the same time. I wanted to remind everyone that, like it or not, it simply doesn't work that way.

cladking

<< <i>Recently concluded auction and bourse activity here at Long Beach continues to reflect a sharply divided, two-tier market, one that seems destined to remain this way.

Generally speaking, prices realized for coins of exceptional quality and/or eye-appeal and/or rarity had heads shaking, jaws dropping, eyes bulging and utterances of disbelief exclaimed.
I saw no letup in the staggering prices achieved by special (and some not-so-special) coins.

On the other hand, the generic looking, readily available and/or lower quality material of various types/market segments continues to underwhelm prospective buyers.

And, why shouldn’t it be this way? As is the case with anything which is bought and sold, it boils down to supply vs. demand.

Many so called “rare” coins aren’t truly rare. Nor are they desirable, for a variety of reasons. There is plenty of supply to satisfy the demand for many, if not most coins, at least as a percentage of the total population available. On the other hand, those seeking the really special pieces have little to choose from.

Auction, bourse, dealer- to-dealer and dealer-to-collector transactions will continue to reflect the difference between sight-unseen and sight-seen coins. And, whether various market segments strengthen or weaken, I can’t envision anything that should or will reverse the disparities of this two-tier market in which we all participate.

Looking at my words above, I see nothing particularly surprising or insightful. But, I sometimes get the impression that many of us prefer to view the "market" as a whole, with most areas being strong or weak at the same time. I wanted to remind everyone that, like it or not, it simply doesn't work that way. >>



Perhaps the reason for the two tier market is two-fold: there has been a continuing
trend toward seeking only the finest by both collectors and investors and a higher and
higher percentage of collectors are newbies. These newbies are not buying high value
coins in very large numbers yet and the existing collectors continue to age. The baby
boomers are starting to retire which often means cessation of collecting and usually means
their purchases will at least slow. This might explain why some better coins in lesser con-
ditions languish and high end coins seem to do pretty well almost across the board.

It would seem that the large increases in the collector base should put a very high floor
under all prices though.

Crazy4Coins

Mark,
How have low grade key date coins been performing.I have been thinking of selling the majority of mine and am curious what kind of demand for them your seeing at the shows.I am talking specifically about Indian cents,Lincoln,Buffalo,Roosevelt and Washington key dates.How are the prices realized?

Thanks,
Randy

BigGreek

Cheap material can readily be had on feebay for about 110% of what you
would pay at most shows. So why should I waste my money at shows

TomB

I believe what we are witnessing is not a split into a two-tiered market; rather, it is the continued evolution of the matrix paradigm of the market. There have always been people who would pay extraordinary money for extraordinary coins and there have always been a very high percentage of collectors and dealers who tie their evaluation of a coin to the valuation of a sheet or guide. The explosion of relatively easily attainable information, primarily via the internet, has created a more level playing field for those who are disciplined enough to learn the market. It seems to me that these folks are more likely to enter the market for extraordinary coins. Additionally, the nuances of this segment do depend somewhat on the bulk movement of the general market, thus creating multiple niche markets, each with its own cycle, intensity and price structure. I don't see these parts of the numismatic pie merging, nor do I believe there is any reason they should.

In practical terms, this is reflected in what I have told people for years: Buy what you like with money you can afford to lose.

Elcontador

Good thread! I can only comment on what I collect - high end 19th & early 20th Century type below the registry set level.

The registry set phenomenon has made the material I collect more expensive. They might not want that Liberty Nickel in a PC 6 holder, but hey, it has nice eye appeal and it might upgrade.........
If a coin is rare and has lots of eye appeal, you might as well be talking toned Morgan $ money to get it.

People aren't making lots of money in the stock market now, so their money has to go somewhere. Some of it is in natural resources, some of it is in real estate, some in precious metals, and some in collectibles.

And they are buying. Dealers who find coins for them are making money. And I don't see any deals for a collector in my position. Mind you, I can still buy something 'right,' but it's difficult.
I pass on far more coins than I buy.

While most of the coins offered to me aren't IMO nice for the grade, I pass on quite a few others because I think the price is too high. Many dealers have an annoying habit of pricing average for the grade coins as PQ. Maybe they don't "buy them right." Still, someone must be buying these coins, or their prices would come down.

A good example of the above is I passed on a few type Barber Halves in PC 5 holders that were 5s, maybe 6s on a scale of 10 because I didn't want to pay 15% over Greysheet ask for them.
I can get this kind of coin cheaper at a major auction.

Lastly, it may be off topic, but one thing I do not understand which disturbs me is the huge spread between blue and greysheet on some coins of the same grade. Capped Bust Halves in 5 come to mind (grey is roughly 2X blue). Yes, I realize that most Capped Bust Halves in 5 are nothing special, there are some nice ones, but I am afraid to buy them.

topstuf

This thread seems to indicate that someone buying less than condition census must be a fool.

That ain't a good sign.

I remember MANY such markets which became the bailiwick of the elite...........for a short while.

Shamika

TomB,

I couldn't have said it better myself. Do to the enormous amount of info that is available, today's collectors are very sophisticated and now know the difference between a good coin and a great coin.

ARCO

TomB - I agree

On another note, I went to your site and saw dozens of Barber half pics. I frantically searched for prices, but saw none and fell to the floor in tears!

Nice set, I hope you quickly post the rest for us all to enjoy. The 1900-O looks familiar!

Tyler

lazeroo

I sold my 34-59 finest registry set of lincolns at long beach ,and all I can say is WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
yea the set was registered at the NGC site and heritage did an outstanding job of selling it.
and I know were back to the modern coin thing. the coins brought 40% more than I thought they would.

Then there were indian cents that I thought would bring big bucks that didn't really do that well.
and early american 1c that they had maybe one bid. and 1/2 cents were really selling but not for the prices they should of.

the KIM MITCHELL SETS did very well, and now I just deleted all my registry sets.

HMMM what to collect next.

coinguy1

<< <i>This thread seems to indicate that someone buying less than condition census must be a fool >>

Topstuff, I didn't mean to imply that in any way (and don't think others in this thread have either) - sorry for any misunderstanding.

TheRaven

The show I was last weekend was pretty busy and saw lots of people buying so the market seems pretty strong to me.....

DHeath

I figured "bifurcated" was relegated to the junk bin when the market crashed.

michael

fantastic reports mark feld and tomb truer words could not have been spoken and put into words better

GOLDSAINT

I think most here would agree that we did not see the market as a whole separate into a truly two tiered market at the first of the year. Since that did not happen it appears to me that what we are now seeing is not only renewed interest in our hobby but the undeniable effects of world wide inflation, and this inflation is effecting everything on the planet. Regardless of what lies governments around the world put out as public propaganda, the incessant printing of paper money is finally showing its effects in the form of rising prices across a wide spectrum of products each quarter. I for one am extremely thankful to have gotten back in to this market and had a chance to participate in some lower prices the last two years before the boom truly hit. Nearly every coin I purchased over one year ago has increased in value between 30% and 80% and there is no way I would personally be a seller at this point as I now believe this market is just getting its steam up. My current prediction is that we may see nearly all good quality coins double in price from here over the next 36 months as many people look for safe havens out of paper into hard assets that cannot be taxed until sold. I also disagree that the retiring baby boomers will slow down, or not re-enter the market, in fact just the reverse. I believe this group will pour hundreds of millions of dollars into our hobby in the next five years. For those that have a good reason to sell now, they will do what they will, but I think that selling your coins now in the hopes of getting back in later at a much cheaper price may just not happen. Even in 1989 having a million dollar net worth was something a little out of the ordinary now millionaires are a dime a dozen. Everyone that bought a medium priced home in California in 1989 is now a millionaire if they have not refinanced.

cameoproofcoins

I agree on the two tier market. There are new collectors entering the market with large sums of money at their disposal and if one is trying to compete with them then the prices of the coins are skyrocketing. Some other really nice coins are selling at very reasonable prices. I have recently purchased a couple of registry coins at 15% discounts and set a record for another coin just cause I wanted it (none were in auctions) It all depends on whether you are in an area where the big money is swimming or looking for an area with less attention. Really nice coins, but more readily available or not being chased are being discounted. I was at the Scher collection and some prices were quite amazing. I left on Friday and there were three people in the auction room. Many people are leaving bids, bidding by the internet or ebay, but spirited bidding seems to be reserved for certain coins.

oreville

cladking:

You said:

<<<<<<<<<<Perhaps the reason for the two tier market is two-fold: there has been a continuing
trend toward seeking only the finest by both collectors and investors and a higher and
higher percentage of collectors are newbies. These newbies are not buying high value
coins in very large numbers yet and the existing collectors continue to age. The baby
boomers are starting to retire which often means cessation of collecting and usually means
their purchases will at least slow. This might explain why some better coins in lesser con-
ditions languish and high end coins seem to do pretty well almost across the board.

It would seem that the large increases in the collector base should put a very high floor
under all prices though. >>>>>>>>>>>

I do not understand how your statement explains why some better coins in lesser condition languish and high end coins seem to do pretty well.

Please define what you mean by a better coin in lesser condition versus high end coins and offer some examples.

I think I know your position but this post thoroughly confused me. I must be having a bad day, it started with those PR's of roadrunner's!

cladking

<< <i>

Please define what you mean by a better coin in lesser condition versus high end coins and offer some examples.

>>



This would be a scarce or rare coin in attractive lower grades. Certainly there are many key
date coins which are also being actively pursued though.