Modern still dropping
goudeygold
Posts: 701 ✭
Got my new SMR mag in the mail today. Still glad to see the newer stuff is still majority flat or down, and of course vintage is flat or up. Bad thing is, SMR is false high on modern, and false low on vintage. Not looking to start a SMR is inadequate pissandmoan fest, but its nice to see price guides go down when they need to be lower.
GG
GG
0
Comments
is, the modern cards will start to go up again. Rios was the guy last year, there will be others this year.
Im curious how much you know about modern cards? Have you bought any bowman chrome draft lately?
Kevin
l
Collecting Bowman Chrome Phillies Rookie Cards and Mike Schmidt certified auto cards.
I will be glad to admit error if this is the case,
GG
when I go to target there are packs form 2002 still on the shelf?
For the most part these are retail packs that have been searched, my local target cannot keep modern packs in except with just a few exceptions. Yesterday they had 6 packs of Bowman Sterling for 29.99 a pack today there were none. 2001 Topps Heritage is one that comes to mind that still holds its value well. Many of the playoff contenders sets and SPX sets from that era still hold their value.
I guess it boils down to this:
The stuff I want costs too much and the stuff I sell goes for too little.
selling ungraded for over beckett prices..hmmmm that aint dead! Actually you don't know what you are talking about as far as the 2000
cards.....the hottest card from last year was the Santana RC.
Do you even collect modern cards?? You haven't told us yet.
Kevin
Groucho Marx
www.somnifacient.us
Owner of a small, but growing (slowly), 1977 Topps Baseball PSA 8+ Set (currently for sale on eBay, username somnifac)
<< <i>there seems to be a lot more investing than collecting when it comes to modern >>
That's too true!
so from 1976 to present so far we have:
bowman chrome (any/all years ?).
topps heritage (2001, and ?).
topps finest (1993 ?).
playoff contendors 2001.
spx 2001.
So essentially is it fair to say, you play the lottery and hope for a parallel card and essentially toss the rest?
Again, you modern guys school me please. 1976 to present what sets are increasing in value that are atleast 2 years old. Rank them, top 10. give me some help here. 1976 to 2002, the top ten modern sets for capital preservation and future appreciation.
thanks again,
GG
PS: Sure old cards with tape stains and bent up corners sit around, but how long would even a PSA 6 modern card sit around ?
In my area foreever.. graded cards have never caught on with the local collectors here, I think it is because of lack of exposure due to no real card shops in the area.
I appreciate the vintage cards and love them, but at the same time I love the thrill of the hunt for that one card. Yes it is like the lottery, and once you get ready to give up you hit that one score that makes you want to open more.
Yes there is quite a bit of investing, but a heck of a lot of collecting in the modern market.
To expect a serious answer regarding modern collecting, the question should be specific. Are we talking raw or graded? Building a set or a player run? Looking for a particular GU or autograph card or any GU/autograph card? Buying only base cards or looking for inserts/subsets? Working with a particular brand or buying all the cards/sets of a particular company.
I've come to the conclusion that with all the choices that are available today, the average new collector gets overwhelmed. Take the time to read some articles about current products. Buy 1 or 2 packs from 1/2 dozen different products and see which ones you like. That will lead colletors to making a better choice and hopefully better posts.
I did a quick look on Ebay and the 2001 sets I saw were the basic sets with no SPs. The 2001 Laynce Nix SP alone was selling for 30 to 35 at one point last season.
I'd suspect a great deal of the modern 'collector' are more lottery players who are more into the cards for selling them at a profit than actually enjoying them. And on the other side, I'd suspect a large majority of the vintage collectors are truly that: collectors. They buy the cards for their personal collection, much more so than to sell them.
I think there's a huge disconnect between the two groups...but I do think that topps is doing a great thing with their heritage sets in bridging the two groups.
Unique Chicago Cards
Wrestling Cards
<< <i>I think at the two ends of the spectrum (modern vs. vintage) you have, in general, 2 completely different types of collectors.
I'd suspect a great deal of the modern 'collector' are more lottery players who are more into the cards for selling them at a profit than actually enjoying them. And on the other side, I'd suspect a large majority of the vintage collectors are truly that: collectors. They buy the cards for their personal collection, much more so than to sell them. >>
I think if you look over on the Beckett boards, you'll see that a large number of modern collectors are both collectors and investors. Nearly everyone on that site has a set or player that they collect. But they also buy packs and boxes looking for a big pull to sell. But who do they sell that big pull to? A modern collector, of course.
Tabe, modern football collector
"I get frustrated by these generalized comments made by posters who just don't seem informed. One opinion from one person does not describe the condition of the modern market.
Yes there is quite a bit of investing, but a heck of a lot of collecting in the modern market.
To expect a serious answer regarding modern collecting, the question should be specific. Are we talking raw or graded? Building a set or a player run?"
again read my post:
"Again, you modern guys school me please. 1976 to present what sets are increasing in value that are atleast 2 years old. Rank them, top 10. give me some help here. 1976 to 2002, the top ten modern sets for capital preservation and future appreciation."
That sounds pretty specific to me!! Again, rank em fabfrank, tell me your top ten sets. Help a vintage collector see the modern light.
And to answer some questins above, I have bought many packs. Nothing that can be resold. While I can't remember all the packs, I can assure you it was decent and wide ranging. Most packs were 3 bucks each. Soometimes only 3 cards, sometimes more. I even split a box of something "hot" my modern (former, now vintage) friend talked me into. It was $65, and we got a jersey card and a pee wee reese bat swatch. Both of which didn't sell on ebay for the opening bid of a dollar. Who buys this stuff? The non parallel cards that is? anyone? Now when I want to play the lottery I just play the lottery. I did like seeing the new products, but for a buck a card?
thanks for your feedback,
GG
<< <i>To expect a serious answer regarding modern collecting, the question should be specific. Are we talking raw or graded? Building a set or a player run? Looking for a particular GU or autograph card or any GU/autograph card? Buying only base cards or looking for inserts/subsets? Working with a particular brand or buying all the cards/sets of a particular company.
>>
I am going to take up the cause of goudeygold because I would be genuinely interested in the response. I am speaking as one who has never bought a pack of baseball cards made after 1990 - I am as ignorant as one could possibly be about modern cards.
Let me ask the question in a somewhat different way. The way I understand it, modern cards can cost several dollars per pack - I think I've even heard of certain packs costing tens of dollars each for only a few cards.
My question - going back at least two years, which unopened packs still sell for as much or more than they did when they first came out? Are there any selling for very much more?
I doubt that pack collectors have driven up the price of modern packs very much, if at all, so the price paid for a pack should, presumably, bear some correlation to the expected value of the cards in the pack. Now, I know that you'll pay more per pack than the original price if you go back before 1986 - hundreds of times more if you go back before 1976 or so, about the same for 1986-1987, and less for 1988-1990, but after that I don't have a clue.
Thanks to whoever has an answer.
there is a symbiotic relationship such that the vintage world needs the modern for its survival - todays young modern collector will also branch out into vintage eventually if they stay in the hobby - for if there isn't a modern "convert", who is going to buy all those vintage sets in the future?
Me? I'm having the stuff buried with me!
These had a MSRP of 2.99 if I remember right.
2001 Bowman Chrome
This had a MSRP of 3.99 a pack
1994 SP
These were 70 dollars a box when they came out.
These are a few. With some thought I can come up with more, but really why even have this discussion. Everyone has their own tastes. I like modern stuff because of the gamble. To me its cheaper and better than the lottery or casinos. At least you do nearly always make up most of your investment.
Now I also love taking any extra money I have and try to invest it in quality vintage cards. I am still working on my 1974 topps master set (All 4 sports). I am just trying to build these since I was born in 74.
Pujols, Rodriguez, Jeter e.g. drive the bus...
If you want to see collecting at its very best....wait till the Heritage hits the fan! Nothing will bring the kid out of ya better than ripping some cool packs that actually have gum in them!
your friend
Mike
Ok, how about some proof! I'm offering 1,000,000 98% Mint (mostly) baseball cards from 1980 to 1987, including stars, not some stripped out collection. I saw 300+ 1980 Mike Schmidts (he's good right?) and 400-500 1980 Topps Rod Carew's for example. I'm willing to part with the collection for 5% of book. Total bargain deal - the collection is in Long Beach, CA. Dan 562-972-9957
<< <i>
GG
<< <i>Actually i would not mind some nice property like that.. I am an avid duck hunter. >>
Actually....ahhhh....yeah that's the ticket....I was raised by Ducks!
<< <i>Me? I'm having the stuff buried with me! >>
I'm leaving mine to the grandkids.....let them figure out what to do with boxes and boxes, and stacks of binders of cards.
Skip
ANGEL OF HOPE
Skip
TUSTIN CA
Are you trying to understand something that you never have or are you here just trying to stir up trouble? It sounds to me that you
still think the cards in the 90's are what they are selling today? Collectors just don't build sets no a days, you can't there are too
many products out there and the cards are just too hard to pull. Sets today make the high numbers of the 52 set look very pullable!
If all you want to think abou is sets, then fine make your opinions, but don't say "modern cards" say modern sets!
Since you just stepped off the 90's boat here is what you missed:
99 bowman chrome, Ultimate Victory and mystique...still amazing sets or guys who are now young stars. UD UV is still very hard to
find in top notch condition. Practically all the big name cards all sold for big bucks at one point in the last 3 years.
Heritage....an amazing boom and picks up strenght every year. Trying to figure out prices by looking on ebay tonight is just dumb. Sets like
this just don't hold their value like heritage has. 4 years later 2001 heritage boxes are selling for 5 times what they came out as....do you
think 52 topps was selling for that in 57?? Doubt it.
Legendary Cuts...guys spend big bucks on these, a constant seller every year!
Bowman Chrome Draft Picks...check out the prices of 02 and 03....they started out selling for 55. These have the best rookies in them period
and yet most of them haven't even gotten to the majors!
Leaf Certified...has grouped their cards by color and print runs...collectors love to put together players sets.....1/250 1/100 1/50 1/25 1/5 1/1
Prices go through the roof. Roethlisberger 1/5 sold for over 4 grand...thats more than most vintage cards! The funny thing is these cards
aren't even graded...DOH
Topps Retired Sig....If you can even find them! 03 was a huge hit. Who wouldn't like HOF autograph cards in its own sealed holder?
2003-04 Basketball....Sold out like you wouldn't believe. Nothing was left on shelves. Lebron's cheapest cards was 40 bucks...thats more
than some HOF'ers rookie cards. UD made a product that sold for 500 a pack and it sold out over night. That sounds dead!
This is just off the top of my head. If you decide to stay in the 21st century some more we can talk more.
Good Luck
Kevin
Getting some useful info kevin, I appreciate your insight. I'm not looking to just stir it up.
GG
more valuable. The days of having a guys rookie card without his autograph on it are over. Unfortunatley that doesn't leave much
room for the non-autographed cards.
Kevin
The legendary cuts do look pretty cool, but its all vintage autos. People sure do pay a huge premium for the cut paper inserted in a card over the price of just the cut auto. Still, a nice mix of vintage and new. Not bad.
leaf certified seems to be overkill on all the 1:1, 1:25, 1: whatever. How many 1:1 Pujols cards exist? Total, all sets? must be hundreds. hundreds of 1:1s, hmmm...
the 2003 topps retired sigs seem more scarce, but still seem to be a fair amount on ebay for not much. dale murphy auto no bids at $9.95 40 minutes left.
Another question, is why does PSA list the value of cards that are worth less than the grading fee? Tons of new stuff lists for $2-4 graded at the 8 level. Who does that? And these are the stars in the set. Some cards listed were 2+. you mean they actually list cards in SMR that are a dollar? I say eliminate all cards that are less than $5 at the PSA 8 level. what do you think?
I don't know modern stuff really seems like such a crap shoot. Maybe your too young to remember the mid-late 80s boom and how everything was worth so much money, it was pandemonium. the 84 donruss mattingly was the next mickey mantle, etc... now virtually all those cards are worthless, relative to where they were. It just sounds all tooo similar.
thanks again for the informative reply,
GG
<< <i>2001 Heritage
These had a MSRP of 2.99 if I remember right.
2001 Bowman Chrome
This had a MSRP of 3.99 a pack
1994 SP
These were 70 dollars a box when they came out. >>
Thanks, easttexas, that's the kind of answer I was hoping for.
Its obvious that you don't understand this. Thanks anyways!
JS
Then you got singles like this notice it is just a BGS 8.
1933 Giants
For me like a lot of people, it's collecting that's foremost on my mind. I know I'm not alone.
your friend
Mike
<< <i>I've said this many times - I like them BOTH (vintage & modern)! If a RC goes thru the roof, I'm happy that I have a key RC with an auto to boot - since I don't sell, if it goes up great, if it goes down I don't care.
For me like a lot of people, it's collecting that's foremost on my mind. I know I'm not alone.
your friend
Mike >>
Yep..me and mike are sitting in the same row....pass the popcorn mikey!!!!!
loth
Want proof? Look at Bowman Chrome Baseball - 1995, 1997, and 1999 are hot. 1996, 1998, and 2000 are cold.
Much modern card collecting has become a different world from what vintage card collectors (or even people who collected new cards during the late '80s or early '90s) are used to. It's generally not about set collecting, or about superstars. In fact, it's hard to sell 2004 cards of Shaq, Kobe, Iverson, Jerry Rice, Favre, Emmitt, Clemens, Sosa, Maddux, or most other active all-time greats for even the per-card pack price (price of a pack divided by the # of cards in it). It's about the chase - the scarce rookie, the autographed card, or (sometimes still) the special game-used card. Almost nothing else matters. [I know Heritage is about set-building. Name another set that is.]
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
great money for the mirror emeralds and even mirror golds and practically call your shot on the mirror blacks.
As far as sets are concerned....bowman chrome and bowman chrome draft are always put together and even some of the parallel sets. I
always thought rookie sets were too risky, especially when they first come out and prices are high, but other still put them together.
As far as 1998, how can you call those sets one hit wonders? Moss, Griese, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor and just when you thought
2000 was weak Tom Brady come along and now they are comparing him to Montana! Of course everyone knows about 2001. 02
had some major players in it too. I guess 2003 wasn't as great but, hardly a bust......when was the last time football rookie class
didn't pan out...maybe 97?
Even 4 years later 2000 issues players are just hitting the majors...is it too early to call Glaus, Drew and Brett Myers busts?
Lets review....last year basketball was the best class since Magic and Bird, and UD was able to sell 500.00 pack. Every football product
put out this year is selling for more than it did when it first came out, and in baseball topps was able to cut corners making draft picks
with damaged cards and off centered cards and STILL sold it very well. That is hardly dead and only a fool would come on here and
say otherwise.
At least if a guy sucks on the field his cards will never be worth anything, unlike vintage where a guy who hit lifetime .125 could be sought
after just because of its grade.
Thanks
JS
Topps chrome rookies (especially refractors) will still sell pretty well if you can get one that's centered. If there are 20-30 topps chrome lebrons on ebay, there might only be 2-3 that are 50/50. Consequently, if graded gem mint, they also sell for larger multipliers than a lot of the more valuable rc's from different sets. I don't understand why Topps can't fix that problem, though.
great money for the mirror emeralds and even mirror golds and practically call your shot on the mirror blacks.
These aren't sets. If you happen to get a mirror #/5, #/10, or #/25 of a player who's not popular, what will you get for it?
As far as sets are concerned....bowman chrome and bowman chrome draft are always put together and even some of the parallel sets. I
always thought rookie sets were too risky, especially when they first come out and prices are high, but other still put them together.
How many people are putting together the complete Bowman Chrome sets with #ed rookies? My guess is that fewer trhan 500 people are even trying.
As far as 1998, how can you call those sets one hit wonders? Moss, Griese, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor and just when you thought
2000 was weak Tom Brady come along and now they are comparing him to Montana! Of course everyone knows about 2001. 02
had some major players in it too. I guess 2003 wasn't as great but, hardly a bust......when was the last time football rookie class
didn't pan out...maybe 97?
Griese???? Taylor's cards don't sell well on ebay or at shows. Neither do Ahman Green's. I've taken advantage of this to buy quantities of Finest, E-X, and similar quality cards of both men. Moss's cards all sold at high prices in 1998, but have gone down since then.
Even 4 years later 2000 issues players are just hitting the majors...is it too early to call Glaus, Drew and Brett Myers busts?
I don't think any of the 3 are busts on the field, but I don't expect any to ever show dramatic gains.
Lets review....last year basketball was the best class since Magic and Bird, and UD was able to sell 500.00 pack. Every football product
put out this year is selling for more than it did when it first came out, and in baseball topps was able to cut corners making draft picks
with damaged cards and off centered cards and STILL sold it very well. That is hardly dead and only a fool would come on here and
say otherwise.
Upper Deck's $500/pack product sold well, but most buyers lost a lot of money if they sold what they got. That best rookie class is good, but it still yields only about 5 or 6 players of the 40 to 60 in most sets that will let you make your money back if they were your 1/box rookie. As for football, the price increase can be summed up in three words: Roethlisberger, Roethlisberger, Roethlisberger. As for baseball, I don't know what to say about Bowman Chrome Draft this year other than I'm glad I didn't buy.
At least if a guy sucks on the field his cards will never be worth anything, unlike vintage where a guy who hit lifetime .125 could be sought
after just because of its grade.
I think you mean his cards eventually won't be worth anything. How much were Rick Ankiel cards when they first came out?
Thanks
JS
One other thing I forgot. How are the collectors of modern hockey cards doing right now?
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Nick, it' obvious you HATE modern cards. That's your opinion, but you ranting about all the failings of the modern market just make you appear to be a closed-minded man who has no tolerance for anything outside your own world.
If you don't like modern, just say so! Instead of trying to drag down everyone who likes and collects/sells it? The modern market is a completely different beast than vintage...and I don't think you quite get that. You keep trying to compare the two, and there are no connections where you can do that.
There is a lot of lottery type feel to modern, but you are blasting sets less than 3 or 4 years old because they have no value? Huh? Since when are super stars in any league established in that short of time? Most players don't immediately become superstars in their league, it takes time.
I think the sooner you come to the realization most cards aren't put together into sets, and quit trying to compare the vintage and modern markets, the happier you will be.
I'm not disagreeing that anything isn't "collectible", some people collect license plates, tea cups and such also. I'm looking at it from an investment viewpoint. So unless I (or anyone for that matter) are in the extremely rarified percentages and actually pull one of the modern gems (worth over 2 grand), I still think I'd be better off buying a pre war graded card of Joe D, Ruth, Foxx, T205-6, us caramel, sport king, etc... than dropping thousands on a couple year old Pujols, or A-rod.
Now I could be wrong here, and time will tell.
Nearly 50 posts and I still do not have a top ten modern set listing. Or for that matter give me a top ten modern card list that you guys feel will without a doubt hold its value over time. Come on guys, rank em. best of the best modern. If I had an unlimited budget to drop on modern cards, where would you suggest it go. Top ten cards, sets, boxes, whatever.
Thanks again,
GG
1. Barry Bonds 87F
2. Calos Beltran 95TT
3. Johan Santana 2000 BBest
4. David Ortiz 97F
5. Albert Pujols 2001 BChrome
6. Barry Bonds 86FU
7. Johan Santana 200 Finest
8. David Otiz 97FU
9. Ichiro 2001 SPX
10.Adrian Beltre 97 BChrome
Top 10 Sets
1. 2004 Topps
2. 2004 THeritage
3. 2004 SP Authentic
4. 2004 Leaf Certified Cuts
5. 2002 UD Prospect Premiers
6. 2004 BChrome
7. 2004 Topps Retired Sig Edition
8. 2004 BBEst
9. 2004 Leaf Limited
10.2001 BChrome
This is based on demand in the last month as determined by collectors and dealers. Source: Tuff Stuff
I believe a general rule for modern that is simple and seems to be time tested: Follow the Rookies
I don't think there is any crime for enjoying modern and getting involved in the speculative "hunt" - if someone wants to buy 100 or 1 of an RC in hopes of it becoming the next Pujols - IMO, it's their money.
And again - todays RC hunters will have to be tomorrows vintage buyers or all the vintage "investors" are going to have to burn them for kindling or be buried with them. Just a thought.
your friend
Mike
Nick, it' obvious you HATE modern cards. That's your opinion, but you ranting about all the failings of the modern market just make you appear to be a closed-minded man who has no tolerance for anything outside your own world.
I collect modern cards as well as vintage cards. I just don't play the lottery and call it collecting. The modern card market is economically irrational, and you have admitted as much. Busting packs is a strongly money-losing proposition for most sets - and if you get a bad box from UD, you can end up with 10% return on the break if you try to sell. Rookie speculation is not an inherently bad economic activity, but its resemblance to day trading is more than merely superficial. The bigger problem with rookie speculation is that it all rests on people busting packs, and as long as 80% of the included rookies will turn out to be hobby duds (the pattern for most sets), it doesn't make sense for them to bust packs for sale.
If you don't like modern, just say so! Instead of trying to drag down everyone who likes and collects/sells it? The modern market is a completely different beast than vintage...and I don't think you quite get that. You keep trying to compare the two, and there are no connections where you can do that.
If you can be dragged down by a message board post about the modern card market, you have far bigger things to be concerned with. I understand full well that the modern card market is vastly different than vintage. That doesn't excuse its irrationality.
There is a lot of lottery type feel to modern, but you are blasting sets less than 3 or 4 years old because they have no value? Huh? Since when are super stars in any league established in that short of time? Most players don't immediately become superstars in their league, it takes time.
Huh? Most superstars establish themselves very quickly. Check the most recent all-star team in each sport and figure out how many seasons it took each player to make the team. Even in the 2000 sets, everyone is either through their 5th year or in the middle of it. [Yes, I know that the 2000 baseball sets often have players who are only hitting the major leagues now. That's a very bad way to tie up money if you're buying and busting packs.]
I think the sooner you come to the realization most cards aren't put together into sets, and quit trying to compare the vintage and modern markets, the happier you will be.
Can the amateur psychoanalysis. I realized long ago that most modern cards aren't collected to be part of sets. I also know it's a very bad thing for the future of the market, because it renders most cards near worthless, and when cards often cost $1 apiece by a per-pack price, it can easily turn off a new collector. Without a steady influx of new collectors, the only way for the market to absorb the new sets each year involves dramatic depreciation of existing sets.
I'll continue to buy what I like in modern cards - but I'm buying, not gambling.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.