Carlos Beltran IS over hyped/rated, and is not as good as one may think!
Skinpinch
Posts: 1,531
in Sports Talk
Plain and simple, Beltran is nowhere near as good as the savior he is being made out to be. Facts: Simply put the man has NEVER finished in the TOP ten in OB%, or SLG%, or OPS! Not even one top ten finish! His lifetime totals are now AVG .284, OB% .353, SLG% .490! In todays game that means there are MANY, MANY better hitters than Beltran, and it isn't even close. His numbers are not good compared to his competitors. His defense and baserunning help, but not enough to put him in the elite class. It is quite possible his stolen base numbers go the way of Vlads last year, especially as he hits his 30's.
We all know that he got this money because of his post season hitting last year. Fact is, guys who excel like that in the post season are just as likely to fail the next time, as they are to excel again. It has been done time and time again. Just look at the post season numbers of everyone, I did. Bernie Williams had that same 'post season player' tag when he first started. Then after getting there a few more times he had some miserable post season series, and in the end he wasn't any different from the post season as he was in the regular season. There is no such thing as a post season player. He is the same player as the regular season. Over time, the post season numbers will show that perfectly. GM'S...NEVER, and I mean NEVER sign a guy based on his post season numbers! Look at the numbers over 1,000's of at bats and that will tell you what you are getting. Don't fall in love with a two week hot streak just because it happened when the leaves are starting to turn brown.
I am glad the Cubs didn't sign him, especially if they can gets Mags for half the price, because Mags is just as good. I will be upset if the Cubs go with Hollandsworth in LF, and they could have signed Beltran(even though Beltran is overpriced, the Cubs have tons of money and should pony up anyway). But if they get Mags, then that is a better move.
We all know that he got this money because of his post season hitting last year. Fact is, guys who excel like that in the post season are just as likely to fail the next time, as they are to excel again. It has been done time and time again. Just look at the post season numbers of everyone, I did. Bernie Williams had that same 'post season player' tag when he first started. Then after getting there a few more times he had some miserable post season series, and in the end he wasn't any different from the post season as he was in the regular season. There is no such thing as a post season player. He is the same player as the regular season. Over time, the post season numbers will show that perfectly. GM'S...NEVER, and I mean NEVER sign a guy based on his post season numbers! Look at the numbers over 1,000's of at bats and that will tell you what you are getting. Don't fall in love with a two week hot streak just because it happened when the leaves are starting to turn brown.
I am glad the Cubs didn't sign him, especially if they can gets Mags for half the price, because Mags is just as good. I will be upset if the Cubs go with Hollandsworth in LF, and they could have signed Beltran(even though Beltran is overpriced, the Cubs have tons of money and should pony up anyway). But if they get Mags, then that is a better move.
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Comments
Oh wait, they did get Kenny Lofton so all is good ..... Phuggin Phillies
<< <i>
I am glad the Cubs didn't sign him, especially if they can gets Mags for half the price, because Mags is just as good. >>
Sounds like sour grapes to me. If the Cubs had signed him, I suspect you would have been bragging what a great player he is. As it is, it sounds a lot like you are trying to justify the Cubs money-grubbing way of running the team.
Fact, in today's game, you have to spend money if you want to win. Period. Moneyball is great as it gives the smaller market teams a chance to compete, but in the long run, the teams that spend are going to be the teams that win.
Had the Cubs actually ponied up some money this year, they might put a watchable product on the field. They'll be contending for the cellar again this year, unfortunately.
<< <i>Oh wait, they did get Kenny Lofton so all is good >>
1420,
Don't forget we just signed Terry Adams to sure up the bullpen! I'm actually contemplating a
20 game plan with that signing. This way I can get a shot for some over-priced post season
tickets when we make it.
I love the Phillies website when they ask who should be the team's opening day pitcher. They give
you a choice of all the number three's they have but don't give you a 'none of the above' choice or
'still searching for a number one' option.
Anyhow, I'd take Beltran right now. It sure would of filled quite a need the Phillies had. I don't
care that the Mets overpaid!
aconte
<< <i>
<< <i>
I am glad the Cubs didn't sign him, especially if they can gets Mags for half the price, because Mags is just as good. >>
Sounds like sour grapes to me. If the Cubs had signed him, I suspect you would have been bragging what a great player he is. As it is, it sounds a lot like you are trying to justify the Cubs money-grubbing way of running the team.
Fact, in today's game, you have to spend money if you want to win. Period. Moneyball is great as it gives the smaller market teams a chance to compete, but in the long run, the teams that spend are going to be the teams that win.
Had the Cubs actually ponied up some money this year, they might put a watchable product on the field. They'll be contending for the cellar again this year, unfortunately. >>
Money grubbing, where do you come up with these factual nuggets? They spent over 90 million last year, making them 7th in the majors. Where do they have to rank in your view not to be called money grubbing?
The Cubs still benefit by getting Beltran out of Houston and out of their division.
If the Cubs had been money grubbers, they wouldnt have signed Sosa to his overpaid contract and they could have had a chance to dump him this off-season.
I dont think they will be contending for the cellar. The word "again" was used, but its been a while since they were a cellar dweller. Certainly not the last two years and certainly not next year.
I stated that if the Cubs didn't sign Beltran so Todd Hollandsworth could play LF, then I would say they should have spent the money on Beltran as they have it to spend. However, seeing that Beltran is WAAAAY overpriced for what he produces, if the Cubs do sign Magglio Ordonez for about half the price, then they just got a player who has actually been a better player than Beltran. Then that makes it a smart move because now they would have a player just as good, and they would have millions of more dollars to sign another player!
I have been one of the biggest bashers in the world in the Cub's failure to spend money the past dozen years, as they by all rights should have a similar payroll as the yanks. However, in this case, a GM fell in love with the guy and overpaid for his value to creating runs(or lack therof)! Plain and simple. And yes, the playoffs did have a big impact because a lot of people in the so-called 'know' still believe in those myths. I hear that all the time, "well he has shown he produces in the post season blah blah blah." I can show otherwise.
THe question is whether Beltran will improve even more upon last years numbers, which would put him closer to the elite. However, I don't see numbers any better than what he did last year. I believe that is his ceiling. Which means he will probably stay there a couple more years and then start to go down.
Mags of course needs to be healthy, which by all accounts he is. Sign Mags for one year while the Cubs will still have top notch pitchiing, then they have a chance to do something. Then spend the money on a better player than Beltran is.
Jay
I agree vlad is better last year. who knows this year beltran 27 and starting to show his upside. i think it was the best move the mets have ever made.
The thing that should concern Mets fans, is that he has never failed in the MLB. He has played in two towns that treat their atheletes like gold....now into New York????
What happens if he starts out like he did in KC a couple years ago....0 fer 20??? He went on to have a fine year.....I don't see any New York fans giving him the thumbs up....more like the middle finger up.
I wish him luck in such surroundings - he's gonna need it.
As for the small-market thing --- hey, you gotta play by the rules! If you can sign a gazillion$ TV/radio contract and then use that money on your baseball club, you'd be a fool not to.
Most true baseball fans are just waiting for the era of "economic revision" to hit baseball....won't happen until that pu** commish gets his rear out of office.
I do hope he does well for the Mets! I'm just surprised he went to NY (not the team, the city). He was on record in KC as saying that NY was a place he didn't see himself playing in.....I guess we all can change our mind though.
One more comment. I read recently that Beltran, in the end, will actually walk away with less money signing for the Mets compared to signing with the Astros. NY has a much higher cost of living and has a state income tax, whereas Texas doesn't. The bottom line is that his agent made more money signing him to New York and Beltran is a buffoon for not looking at the big picture. Good riddance!
That is a bitter post.. Beltran will be an allstar this year. Shea is not a hitters park but he still plays 81 games on the road. with a lot of them coming in hitters parks like atlanta and philly. and he will still play in wrigley and houston. i look for 30 hr's 40 steals 100 rbi's.
mets have 4 guys that can swipe 30 or more bags will be a very exciting year at shea.
Atlanta is not a hitters park and Florida is definitely not, but then again Kansas City isn't either and Beltran put up nice numbers there. I do think he will be an all-star this year even especially since he was robbed of it last year when he switched leagues. Speaking of hitters parks I wonder how the National's park will be.
Ya, and im sure you believe he'd make more in endorsements in Houston than N.Y right
<< <i> The bottom line is that his agent made more money signing him to New York and Beltran is a buffoon for not looking at the big picture. Good riddance! >>
Hate hate hate...gotta love the hate!
Maybe he thought NY would offer him a better chance to play for a contender...maybe he wanted to live the NY lifestyle?
It's easy to sit from afar and judge an athlete and crucify them for wanting to play on a bigger national stage...but if you were in the same position, you are going to sit there and say you wouldn't want to benefit from playing in the biggest market for the most money? Of course it's easy to sit there and say 'oh no I'd be loyal to my team!' but the truth is, good players always want the biggest challenge, and there is no bigger challenge than succeeding in NY. Period.
but philly is for sure. nationals even have a home yet? i forget what is going on with them.
This is a couple years old but it's the best I could find:
ranking of hitters/pitchers parks
I'll bet that Arlington (Taxas Rangers) would move up to 2nd or 3rd after the past few seasons.
seems like a constant wind blowing out every evening. Compare the Rangers offense at home and on the road last year.
Surprising to see the Toronto Skydome miss the list.
Living in Houston, I would have to say that I'm glad the Astros didn't sign Beltran for the money he wanted. I agree with the initial message in that Beltran was overpaid based on his past history. He just lucked into being the best perceived free agent at the end of this past season. I think the only real impressive thing about him was his speed. He had a career year and played in a hitter's ballpark. Shea Stadium isn't a hitters ballpark so don't expect to see 38 HR's out of him this year. I think Jason Lane who will end up being his replacement will put up solid numbers at a tiny fraction of Beltran's salary.
One more comment. I read recently that Beltran, in the end, will actually walk away with less money signing for the Mets compared to signing with the Astros. NY has a much higher cost of living and has a state income tax, whereas Texas doesn't. The bottom line is that his agent made more money signing him to New York and Beltran is a buffoon for not looking at the big picture. Good riddance!
In which kuhlmann replied:
Dude
That is a bitter post.. Beltran will be an allstar this year. Shea is not a hitters park but he still plays 81 games on the road. with a lot of them coming in hitters parks like atlanta and philly. and he will still play in wrigley and houston. i look for 30 hr's 40 steals 100 rbi's.
mets have 4 guys that can swipe 30 or more bags will be a very exciting year at shea.
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kuhlmann --
Sorry for slow reply to your post.
I wasn't bitter at all in my analysis. Skinpitch was correct and I agreed and we were right.
Also recall that I wrote:
"I think Jason Lane who will end up being his replacement will put up solid numbers at a tiny fraction of Beltran's salary."
JASON LANE: (SALARY: $345,000)
HR: 26
RBI: 78
SB: 6
BA: .267
CARLOS BELTRAN (SALARY: $11,571,429)
HR: 16
RBI: 78
SB: 17
BA: .266
Poor Carlos won't be getting any playoff money either.
Numbers don't lie, and Houston is in the playoffs
Have fun playing golf in October, Beltran
Boston had to deal with Boras to keep Varitek, but did not get raked over too bad because of Varitek's desire to stay with the Red Sox (they still slightly overpaid for him, but had to to maintain team chemistry). However, Boras' unrealistic demands for Derek Lowe kept the Red Sox from even consdiering at all to keep him, so they went after Wells and Clement.