1895-O is undervalued

luckyluciano

For most of us a 1895 proof is not affordable, but can someone double check my numbers but 1895-0 is scare considering the mintage.
For those of you tracking the 2004 greysheets this was and still is a good buy.

jdimmick

Actually, the cdn has shown a significant increase in price of the 95-o in the past 6 months. I had picked up a few prior to the price increase and offered them for sale at near the newer bid/ask levels a short time later, but actually had some price resistance. I had to discount them some from the newer levels to move them. (PCGS coins) had I bought them at the newer levels, I would have broke even at best!!

jim

DorkGirl

I have to disagree, I have always felt that the mintages of this year did not justify their higher prices. I've always felt the prices reflected the mystique of the year they were minted. Take a look at other years with comparable mintages:

1899 Philly-this coin has a mintage of 331,000, that's 70k less than the 1895s and 120k less than the 1895o. This coin brings about 6x less than the 1895 issues (this is a ballpark figure). Why? I think it is the collector's perceptions about the coins, not the real numbers.

Two other undervalued coins (IMHO) are the Philly and New Orleans issues in 1893. The CC coin in this year always brings more money, but why? Both the P and O have mintages of half the CC's. Again, I believe it has to do with the perception that the CC coin must be rarer, the numbers however, show that is not the case.

I think at this time, the 1899 Philly and the 1893 O and P are much better values. Again this is just my opinion.



to the forums!!!

anablep

ziggy29

Hard to say. Because of the popularity of the Morgan series and demand for the 1895 date (for Morgan "year sets"), the price is certainly much higher than it would be for, say, an 1895 Barber coin with the same availability. But it's also true that it can seem "undervalued" because high demand can also result in many pieces residing in "held for life" collections, thus fewer are available than one might think based on their overall scarcity.

Want overvalued? Try AU-58 Type 2 gold dollars. They're *everywhere* and they still go for over a grand.

K6AZ

Mintages mean nothing in the Morgan series. At the current prices, the 95-O is actually overvalued in XF-AU.

razorface1027

Mintages mean nothing in the Morgan series. At the current prices, the 95-O is actually overvalued in XF-AU.

You're damn tootin', Eric. An F-12 is going for $350.00 right now. A year and half ago, F-12 was fetching $105 to $115, talk about overvalue.

BAJJERFAN

The 1899 has a much higher survival rate in MS than either of the 95's, and this is reflected in the price and availability of the 1899 coins. Also most or all of the 95-o mintage was released to circulation so MS and better circ examples are scarce. There is some question as to the accuracy of the mintage figures for the 1899 as well.

KollectorKing

DorkGirl -
You're missing a small factor in your analysis: DEMAND. There is tremendous demand for CC Morgans over P, and O ones. Hence demand has resulted in higher prices on the 93-CC's.

coinkat

The 1893-O in EF-AU is probably alittle undervalued, however, the surviving UNC pop is nothing in comparison to the 1895-O or 1892-s. As for the 1895-O, an argument can be made that the reason for the price increases in EF-AU is due to the small remaining UNC population. The problem with this theory is what about the 1892-s? It is a tougher coin in UNC as well as AU, however, the EF 40 prices are still in the 125-140 range while the 95-O is in excess of $600. Alot of what goes on really just does not make alot of sense. The 1895-s is far tougher than the 95-O in EF-AU, but the remaining UNC population is significantly higher.

SarasotaFrank

welcome back kelso

DorkGirl

Good points everyone, but the thread is about undervalued coins, not demand. Demand is very hard to quantify. Rarity because of mintage is a little easier, making values more subjective, for me anyway. Still making my point that the 1893 O and P are a good coins that are undervalued.

A quick ebay search shows 85) 1895-O's, 24) 1895-S's, and 34) 1899's for sale right now. Maybe everyone is trying to cash in on the high prices on the 95's right now?

The pops on the 1899 intrigue me, I can't say I ever heard that before, but I do believe there are a lot more high grade 99's now that I think about it. That does make some me think you may be right about that BAJJERFAN.

Interesting discussion so far, thanks guys

BAJJERFAN

I don't know what the demand for 1899's in MS is but the reason it appears to be undervalued is that the supply is quite adequate. Its possible that the dealers may start to hoard it and affect prices just like we saw with the 92-cc; I really don't know.

DennisH

Until you hit AU58 the 1895-O is readily available in all circulated grades. I believe it is a significantly overrated date whose high price in circulated grades is due to the enormous price in Mint State grades -- at which point the coin is legitimately rare and justifiably expensive.

Now to play devil's advocate, I could also make the same statements about the 1889-CC, 1892-S and 1893-S.

coinkat

I forgot to mention my comments regarding the 1899 Morgan...there is information regarding the 1899 mintage and the real number is significantly higher than 330,000 or thereabouts. DMPL and PL examples are tough but not impossible.

mintluster

I think 1895-O is actually OVERPRICED...in my opinion. I think a lot of Morgans are actually overpriced.

mintluster

...and I love Morgans. I just know everything that goes up must come down...and I see a few instances where a few rich collectors spend some money on a key date or two and it drives all prices up. This sort of activity is destined to bring danger down the road when prices start adjusting to more realistic levels.

greghansen

Can't swing a dead cat without knocking over a basket of '95-O's....especially since their mid-year price explosion. In comparison, try finding a no problem vf-xf '95-S. Its tougher to find even though its only about half the price. But then, thats why I picked it for next years price increase contest.

coinkat

nice choice

BillJones

A great many dealers think that the 1895-O silver dollar is an overpriced coin in the circulated grades. I've heard that the coin regularly trades at less than "bid" since the prices were boosted on a the Gray Sheet about 6 months ago.

Actually the coin is really only scarce in TRUE Mint State condition. It's worth maga bucks in REALLY NICE Mint State (MS-63 PQ +) because the 1895-O dollars were very poorly made. Really nice AUs bring good money too if they are bright and attractive. Most of the coins that get called AU-50 are pretty ugly and not worth the price IMO.

BAJJERFAN

<<"A quick ebay search shows 85) 1895-O's, 24) 1895-S's, and 34) 1899's for sale right now. Maybe everyone is trying to cash in on the high prices on the 95's right now?">>


A quick check on eBay shows that there are currently 33 items found under 1893-S Morgans yet this coin is constantly touted as rare or very rare; when in fact it is what you would call scarce IMHO.

Stuart

<< I forgot to mention my comments regarding the 1899 Morgan...there is information regarding the 1899 mintage and the real number is significantly higher than 330,000 or thereabouts. DMPL and PL examples are tough but not impossible. >>

CoinKat: Here's an 1899 PCGS MS-63 DMPL that I am very pleased to have acquired this week. Bacause of it's strong cameo contrast between deeply mirrored fields and very frosty devices, in my opinion, it has the eye appeal of an MS-65 DMPL. Some forum members have been very complimentary of her...

ultradmpldollars

1899 Philly-this coin has a mintage of 331,000, that's 70k less than the 1895s and 120k less than the 1895o. This coin brings about 6x less than the 1895 issues (this is a ballpark figure). Why? I think it is the collector's perceptions about the coins, not the real numbers.

By no means is this a tough date to loacte. The mintage is low, however these are readily available at most shows. There are a lot of 99-P's survivng in the mint state grade and can usually be found around greysheeet ask (give or take).

morgannut2

First: The grade of the 1895O's wasn't mentioned. In mint state I believe they are very undervalued because

their survival rate is on the magnitude of the more highly valued 1893S. The problem is eye appeal.

Second: The survival rate of XF and AU 1895O's is much higher than most other key dates, plus the price is in top FIVE

price increases in 2 yr.s, I measured about 6 months ago. I believe they are very overpriced and stay even or lower.

Third: As Bajjerfan- plus Stuart's image point out, the eye appeal of a coin is terribly important. The 1895O is notoriously

poor in strike and commonly overdipped at an earilier time in an attempt to pass AU-58's as unc.s. It is much harder

to find any prooflike '99 that has a real Cameo and eye appeal than to find any old dipped out XF/Au 95O, but the

values don't reflect this---and they will at some point IMHO. The idea was correct--but, one year too late!!

coinkat

Stuart:

nice looking coin. I thought I would check the PCGS Jan 2004 pop report for the 1899 in PL and DMPL for 63. PL is at 80 with a total in all grades of 308 and DMPL is 54 with 213 for all grades. The pop for just a 63 is 2080. The difference in greysheet price is like $10.00. Smart buy...

Stuart

CoinKat: Thanks for the population report info on the 1899 and for your endorsement of my purchase.

Bottom line is that it's a beautiful MS-63 DMPL, and my personal preference favorite grades for my PL/DMPL Morgans is either MS-64 PL or a PQ MS-63 DMPL.

I do appreciate your kind words and the post! Thanks!!

roadrunner

No doubt there are plenty of Morgans out in the world. And there are tons of collectors who love them. An 1859-0 seated quarter is probably 10X rarer than an 1893-s dollar yet you can buy the quarter for $15-50 with no problem. A MS64 1859-0 will set you back about $4-5K, try that for a 93-s. There aren't probably 10 MS64 quarters in existence. But it's the demand thing. The numbers on the Morgans always look too high to me because I'm influenced by the numbers on earlier silver coinage.

I remember John Kamin plugging the 1899 BU rolls back in the 1970's. My brother actually bought a roll from him. The low mintage has always attracted moths to the flame. Yet it's the survival rate that matters. The 59-0 quarter has 2-1/2X the mintage of the 93-s dollar (260,000 quarters). Yet its survival rate is probably only 0.2% (300-500 pieces known). I would place the 93-s survival rate
at 2-5% or more (2500-5000 pieces known...or more).

roadrunner

BAJJERFAN

I was under the impression that there are around 8000 of the 1893-s coins in existence.

roadrunner

You may be right Bajjerfan, I just took a swag and obviously erred on the low side. So that makes an 8% survival rate which is rather
high if you think about it. The survival rate for many mid-19th century coins is only around 0.1 to 0.2% Imagine if that applied to a 93-s dollar and only 100 to 200 pieces existed. More than likely Morgans would have been considered much less collectible and the demand would not be what it is today. But in a strange way, adequate supply has created demand. For most 19th century coinage, lack of supply has created a lack of demand.

roadrunner