How to price a collection/Registry Set?

dingodog

We're toying with a new feature in our coin BETA - analyzing your collection by set, or by album, etc. Just for grabs I ran this for a prototype Indian Head Cent collection, that is one of each issue in MS60 and in every attribute, to see what it would cost (at retail) for a complete collection in grade MS60. The set totals 321 coins and the results are a little surprizing. This report is a listing of what it would take to compile a complete set in this format. I could run it against my collection to see what I am missing, what it would cost to get the missing coins, what my average monthly budget is for coins, what coin(s) I should buy next (rarest first, of course), and approximately how long it will take to complete my collection. Then I could let the system search the internet for six months or so and automatically alert me to every potential match. If you want to see the list you can grab it at ftp link to list

It would be a small task to include all the PCGS Registry sets. Think PCGS would mind?

Jan

jmccarthy1983

Why wasnt that done in excel? Would have been easier.

FullStepJeffs

But, the real question is... how do you get the prices for the coin grades... where does it come from? I haven't found many price guides that are accurate at all for my specialty - Jeffersons. In fact, I built my own price guide this year. Second, how do you get the program to differentiate the different TPG, which all sell for different prices. I may want to look at your program... you need a beta tester for Jeffersons, I'm your guy. Currently, I have a price guide, which includes close to 11K auction prices realized, 1.3 million in total sales, and 200 pages in length.

dingodog

<< <i>Why wasnt that done in excel? Would have been easier. >>



Hey Airborne!

Remember? Enemy, weather, terrain? What you saw here is a small part of the orverall program (free now in BETA if you'd like to try it). Why not Excel? We have created a "Master List" of U.S. coins since 1616 and have about 3.1 million entries long (and growing rapidly) because we track errors, varieties, attributes, pedigrees, grading companies, etc. for all grades inclusive from 1 to 70 in business strike and 40 to 70 in proof so the Excel spreadsheet would be a bit wide also.

Rgds
Jan
USAF '55

DeepCoin

I think it would be a good idea for most sets. However, when you have coins that are low pop and are not listed in the blue sheet, grey sheet, PCGS price guide... etc. it would make valuing the coins difficult. You might think this is uncommon, but in my lowly Merc NB set I have 6 68s and they are not priced anywhere. Additionally, my pop 1/0 coin would be difficult to value IMHO.

This also does not control for value that some would attribute to toning. I know that many Morgan collectors prefer toning and have paid and will pay over sheet for those coins.

dingodog

<< <i>But, the real question is... how do you get the prices for the coin grades... where does it come from? I haven't found many price guides that are accurate at all for my specialty - Jeffersons. In fact, I built my own price guide this year. Second, how do you get the program to differentiate the different TPG, which all sell for different prices. I may want to look at your program... you need a beta tester for Jeffersons, I'm your guy. Currently, I have a price guide, which includes close to 11K auction prices realized, 1.3 million in total sales, and 200 pages in length. >>



We get our prices from a large number of sources and have written software that weights them, putzs around, does "curve smoothing", and generates "extrapolated" prices for the prices that are missing. Our goal is to become the standard, and we can use all the help we can get. I have been looking for experts in specific fields, please send me your ideas and suggestions via email to my email

Rgds
Jan

dingodog

<< <i>I think it would be a good idea for most sets. However, when you have coins that are low pop and are not listed in the blue sheet, grey sheet, PCGS price guide... etc. it would make valuing the coins difficult. You might think this is uncommon, but in my lowly Merc NB set I have 6 68s and they are not priced anywhere. Additionally, my pop 1/0 coin would be difficult to value IMHO.

This also does not control for value that some would attribute to toning. I know that many Morgan collectors prefer toning and have paid and will pay over sheet for those coins. >>



Hi DeepCoin,

It will take some time but I think our methodology will handle it. As mentioned above, we extrapolate unknown prices based on the shape of the curve of known prices. Does it work? Only real live test I had (F.U.N. last year), a guy handed me an MS66 Pan-Pacific $50 Octagonal in PCGS. We were within $1,500 out of $XXX,XXX.00 - enough to impress him, and that coin in that grade was not only finest known, but only known for a few hours!

There are anomolies in coin pricing of course. My formerly 1821 Small Date Dime used to be 1/0, now one has graded higher and last time I looked at Gray Sheet, my coin was still listed at what I'd paid at auction some time ago.

Rgds
Jan

kieferscoins

<< <i>It would be a small task to include all the PCGS Registry sets. Think PCGS would mind? >>



They might mind. You might want to ask them first before you spend too much time on the project.

Cameron Kiefer

Steve

Jan,
Your concept is good. Whether or not it will be profitable to you is debatable. People are always looking for "what is it worth?" information and you seem to have a "number" for every imagineable year, mintmark, denomination, condition etc. People will judge your program with THEIR perception of what THEIR coin is worth. We all know that an individual coin is worth what the seller wants for it as long as there is a willing buyer to pay him that money. We all know that in the history of price guides, no two guides agree on any specific value at any point in time. And then there is what value are you really talking about? Full retail, wholesale, dealer bid, dealer ask, actual retail, slabbed by PCGS? NGC?, PCI? etc., etc. So, creating a nice listing of all these coins with all these prices may seem like a great idea, whether it has any long term commercial value is debateable. Anyway, I wish you good luck in your venture. Steve

dingodog

<< <i>

<< <i>It would be a small task to include all the PCGS Registry sets. Think PCGS would mind? >>



They might mind. You might want to ask them first before you spend too much time on the project.

Cameron Kiefer >>



Of course!