Then that must be why the Bank of England's sale didn't drop the price to 252.
ANY sale of STORED gold affects the market. Proportionally to size of sale. Has to.
It seems to me that CB sales of up to 15,000 tons of gold over the past 10-15 years certainly did plenty to help keep the gold price from spiraling out of control. Even some of the recent CB sales of only 10-100 tons helped to stop rallys that were occuring. On paper I would agree that shifting gold around between the CB's should have no real effect on the overall gold market, but history seems to say something different.
That Cramer post is rather interesting. I was unaware of all the brew ha-ha Booya that was going on late last week. All I knew was that gold recovered some ground.
Why is it that guys like Mr. Cramer never seem to see what many of us have been talking about right here in this thread for several years? There is just no way you can build a pyramid scheme like this with multiple leveraged deals that lasts forever, they all must crash in the end.
Surly Mr. Cramer knows that as weak as the dollars is on international markets that if the Fed starts reducing the interest rate they will not be able to roll the international debt, and most likely not even the debt being bought here.
How much room is there in our current rate? The Bank of England is paying 5.75% and the Europeans keep moving their Rate up, and both of these currencies are very strong compared to ours.
“The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate steady at 4 percent on Thursday.
The Bank of England also left its benchmark rate unchanged Thursday, at 5.75 percent.
Mr. Trichet’s use of that phrase suggested the bank’s benchmark interest rate would rise a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25 percent, at the next policy meeting, in September — the ninth increase since the end of 2005.”
It's funny to see Cramer grovel for the Fed to bail out his speculator buddies. If the Fed cuts this week, what kind of message does that send? A bad one, methinks.
I don't think they cut til it gets really bad, where they are forced to act. Like I said in another thread, the Fed is painted into a corner. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
It was another bad week in the market for stocks and non government bonds. There still hasn't been any place to hide, except for cash and some treasuries.
What the market seems to lack is accurate information on the extent of the subprime problem. The Bear Stearns conference call was not helpful and the market quickly went down, probably based upon some of the comments in the call. The stock and bond markets seem to be acting on emotion in the absence of accurate information.
Perhaps the Fed could be helpful in saying what they will do if there is a major problem in liquidity and what they are prepared to do. The markets need some calming down.
There is so much printed money in the world now that any scheme to make bets on nearly anything will allow you to set up a hedge fund.
Gambling in these crazy markets is not only great fun, but the leverage is fantastic. Put up $50,000 and get derivative leverage of $1,000,000. Not only that, but who cares what the money is for?
“Hedge Funds Pluck Money From Air in $19 Billion Weather Gamble By Peter Robison Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group trader Patrick Ayash rarely reads earnings estimates and just skims news about inflation. One thing he never misses: the daily weather report.
Ayash, 31, is part of an army of mathematicians, hedge-fund whizzes and programmers pouring into the $19 billion market for weather futures, financial instruments tied to everything from storms over Kansas, an early frost in the Netherlands, or a frigid spring in New York.
The market was once a sideline for utilities looking to insure against swings in demand for natural gas or electricity. Now, with hedge funds increasingly hungry for market-beating returns, more are gambling on untested strategies.
``There are no 100 percent forecasts -- but what if we can say something with 80 percent confidence? That's where it gets interesting,'' says Brad Hoggatt, 35, chief portfolio manager of MSI GuaranteedWeather LLC, which sells weather futures.”
Enron Corp. sold the first weather derivative 10 years ago, agreeing to pay a utility $10,000 for each wintertime degree that was below normal.
In the year ended March 31, 2007, the contracts had a notional value, or face value, of $19 billion, according to the Weather Risk Management Association, a trade group in Washington.
The ones who would benefit the most by lower interest rates are the ones who owe the most. US federal and state governments.
<< <i>if the Fed starts reducing the interest rate they will not be able to roll the international debt, >>
I think the plan is to monetize the debt. The assumption is we need to sell Tbills to borrow money to spend. In fact, a lot of money that is spent is not borrowed, it is printed. This trend will continue to accelerate.
This process benefits the creditor (theUS and its debtor public) and harms the creditor (Asian countries and others with huge dollar reserves).
The plan is brilliant,
1) give them paper for real goods
2) allow the paper to loose value over time
3) keep the game going as long as possible.
4) Eventually make the paper worthless and create a new currency.
What the market seems to lack is accurate information on the extent of the subprime problem. The Bear Stearns conference call was not helpful and the market quickly went down, probably based upon some of the comments in the call
Considering that since 2000 the derivatives market has exploded from $60 TRILL to hundreds of Trillions, one doesn't need much imagination to figure out that there is lots of hot air in these debt obligations. Subprime will get far worse.
Cramer was pushing for the federal government tonight to guarantee the bad debts of the 7 million who are standing on a banana peel now with their mortgages. I presume any such "guarantee" would be backed with devalued money.
One side of me believes that we should use the "let it burn" approach, let those that have acted responsibily reap the reward that comes from being qualified for the loans they have and for having the where with all to meet those obligations; let all the losers burn. The other side of me sees the human suffering, the loss of jobs, houses, cars, credit ratings and it is an onerous fate that lasts for a lifetime. Where could there possibly be a compassionate federal response? Surely, they can't all be bailed out.
I know that the lenders were unabashedly predatory with the go go, no doc. loans and arm's, leaning well out over the edge of proper lending practices. We've discussed that here and it's been a well researched and nicely appointed discussion. But in addition to this discussion, I just got to watch my son in law go down at the hands of an exploding arm...and he's got my two grandchildren, this could cost me some real buks before it's all over. If he had told me before he went under, I could have helped...he didn't. Now, he's burnt toast on a pointy stick and I've got a couple of babies to worry about. All politics are local.
The lenders should burn but they are more likely to be helped by the govt. than the schlepps that got fried. Hedge funds are the culprit...they are like crap shooters betting on the come line and laying odds on the side to better their win pay out. In craps, the player makes the bet and wins or loses. If the govt. bailed the fund players out, it seems that it would open the gates to letting banks and funds fleece the workers from here to forever, with out any risk.
This whole thing just stinks...smell that, do you smell that?
I'm not in favor of a bailout for the Wall Street bums but we should do something for the homeowners. Not all of them lied about income and overbought. They got the Greenspan screw like Kramer said.
I remember getting a fixed when GReenspan was saying all should take ARMs. The young were foolish enough to believe a government clown. Then when they were hooked he raised the rates 17 times in a row. Sucked em in and burned them.
Homebuyers are to blame just as much as the lenders. Anyone who bought 1500 sq ft townhomes in Northern New Jersey for $450,000 deserve to lose. They all thought they would flip it in 6 months and make $50,000. I guess in the end, "they" were the greater fool. Greed is a terrible emotion that overrides common sense. Unless one learns from their mistakes they are doomed to repeat them. People should only be bailed out if you want to see this happen again.
Yepper, flippers were being greedy and we all know...greed kills. But there were a bunch of just regular folk that had a chance to get their families into a real home with out having the financial pedigree and that's where the crime is.
"People should only be bailed out if you want to see this happen again."
The regular folk were more concerned with the interest rate they were paying rather than the actual home they were buying. Home prices were ridiculously high in many areas. They NEVER should have been valued so high. If that $450,000 townhome appreciated at a historic rate of 5% then in 30 years when the regular folk were finished with their mortgages then it would be valued at almost $2 million. Did these people actually think a 30yr old townhome would be worth $2 million?
With home prices already so high, the regular folk never had a chance.
If in 2035 $2 million will only get me a 1500 sq ft townhome that needs to be updated, then I think we will all be living in tents.
We've traded control of our economic future for a pile of cheap Chinese trinkets at Wal-Mart. Disgusting.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
This is mostly politically motivated. The last thing the Chinese want to see is someone in office who is free spending and will reduce the value of their dollars. Some people think the arms of the Chinese can be twisted but this isn't the case. They hold most of the aces.
As they said though they don't want to upset the economic applecart. Diplo- macy might work to get agreement that they need to ramp down their expor- ting machine and trade a little growth for wealth. It's not like they gain noth- ing with a more realistically valued currency.
....because the ever-expanding Chinese middle-class will eventually be able to buy what they've been exporting over here to the USA. This will be a new outlet for their goods.
Why not take care of the standard of living at home first? The day may be coming when we can't even get the Chinese trinkets here at home. To those that sold Manhattan for $24 in beads, we're on the same path. And in a complete 180...who owns all the newer casinos now?
<< <i>And the reason China would want to destroy the economy of the largest customer for their products is?
CG >>
First, not all countries think solely in terms of economics. Believe it or not, countries often act even when it's not in their short-term economic interest.
Second, why is it in their long-term economic interest to keep selling us stuff in exchange for overvalued paper currency?
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I think were all missing the point here They didn't need us before so now they have all of our dolllars we printed [no valuein real term in their world] and if they don't play our game we'll ? wake up they didn't need us before why in the world would they need us now they can print money i think and have 90 % of their people waiting to play the game under their rules just my thoughts
one more thing before you burn me you say we have all these companys and money invested so no way they'll burn us we'll hurt them i think the mideast nationized the oil fields so i guess chinese with their feelings for us wouldn't think of it yea right nothing like being played but we pay our way well kind of we do print real well and it looks great
>>>>Considering that since 2000 the derivatives market has exploded from $60 TRILL to hundreds of Trillions, one doesn't need much imagination to figure out that there is lots of hot air in these debt obligations. Subprime will get far worse.
roadrunner
you are exactly right.....and thats exactly why the fed no longer controls the money supply....why have the fed print the money when you can print it yourself....now that we are awash in cash...aka credit derivatives....we have been inflating at over 10% for a few years now...100k in salary on jan 06 will be worth severnty something christmas 07
sure is a shame that the leaders in washington dont have a clue what a derivative is.....as they should of legislated controls...too late now!!!
the fact is....washington has spent the entire 45 trillion we have sent in for social security.....are running a huge budget def....and are now stuck with only one " bullet" left to stop a recession and that is to lower rates....WHICH THEY WILL DO LATER IN THE YEAR....which in turn will spin inflation up a notch or two
so what is a business owner to do in order to survive ???you got it...raise prices.....in fact i already have in order to get in front of the curve......aka more inflation
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
(1) A dollar crisis would be as damaging to China as it would to the US. (So probably they are smart enough to "dump in moderation"!)
(2) It would be a good thing for us if China and other countries were less willing to fund our deficit spending.
(3) Henry Paulson is correct that protectionist measures being discussed in Congress pose a grave danger to the global economy. A move towards protectionism is a more serious risk than China dumping dollars.
>>>I am definitely concerned with inflationary pressures, but I don't see 100 depreciating to around 70 in this period.
i guess you dont go to the grocery store...where as the 100 bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
been to a resturant lately...that coke which used to be 90 cents...then 1.20....then 1.40....then 1.60.....now is at 1.90
in nov 2006 gas was 1.95.....now 2.75
have you been reading in your paper where your teachers got raises this year...expect your property taxes to go up next year
have you been reading where corn is up 100% year over year??? now you dont eat much corn but the cattle do....you beef has gone up
while prices go up and raises are given....expect every single aspect of prices to go up....garbage collection....city services ect ect
now you might be looking a t the core inflation rate which is the benchmark washington uses for governemtn entitlements and now arounf 2.5% but headline inflation is the number we all feel!!!which ws 10.3% in 2006.....THAT IS A REAL FIGURE!!!...add that to what your feeling this year and that will total over 20% in 2 years....FACT
had any home repairs done lately????? you will see then...plumbers tacking on trip charges to cover gas costs......
the fact is i own 8 stores and have had 17 price increases from my largest supplier.....and passed every penny along to you the consumer.....in fact i added some to cover increased labor costs
the inflation you should be feeling but arent is real....maybe your just rich and dont feel it....but 250 million other americans feel it...i can assure you
monsterman
my goal is to find the monsters and i go where they are but i sometimes miss some.... so if you have any and want to sell IM THE BUYER FOR THEM!!!
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i> the inflation you should be feeling but aren't is real....maybe your just rich and don't feel it....but 250 million other Americans feel it...i can assure you
monsterman >>
Heck yes I can feel it. 3 years ago I signed a 3 year contract for what was a healthy raise and very good money. It still is a very good salary.
However, I keep an accurate log of expenses. I can tell you my water bill for any month 10-12 years ago, as an example.
Each month/quarter I can see less and less left over after basic living costs and my mortgage hasn't gone up. Property taxes sure have, though, as well as insurance. Homeowners was up 7% this year, while the actual value of my house is dropping. People are taking 100K less to sell in my neighborhood, one couple ended up taking 150K less just a few homes down the street and theirs was the only one that has sold in several months. There must be close to a dozen for sale in short walking distance. My guess is they had ARMs. Never have so many been for sale at once. This is an upscale Houston area. Memorial/Wilchester, for those that know Houston.
Back on point: what's left over for investments/savings is less and less each month. It's inch by inch, so you don't notice the bite severely, but if you keep records, it's shocking. Kind of like the frog in the cool water as you slowly turn up the heat till he's boiled alive.
That contract comes up again this September First. You can bet I'll have the paperwork in hand to show the inflationary nature of our current situation, not to mention why I've earned a raise over that as well.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
O.K. now we are seeing some serious money getting printed!
Gee, how much private American debt has gone to foreigners in the last few years?
Most of the ARM mortgages made over the last five years have not even reset yet, if this is what the start of this looks like things should be real interesting in 6 to 12 months.
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank, in an unprecedented response to a sudden demand for cash from banks roiled by the subprime mortgage collapse in the U.S., loaned 94.8 billion euros ($130 billion) to assuage a credit crunch.
``There seems to be a hole in the balance sheet of World Inc. that will have to be filled by government intervention,'' said Peter Lynch, chairman of private equity fund Prime Active Capital Plc in Dublin.”
The ECB said today it provided the largest amount ever in a single so-called ``fine-tuning'' operation, exceeding the 69.3 billion euros given on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terror attacks on New York.
The ECB's decision, just one week after the German government arranged the bailout of IKB Deutsche Industriebank, is confirmation that the subprime debacle isn't contained within the U.S.
The U.S. Federal Reserve added $24 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system today.
There has been a lot of volatility, but I haven't seen much of a correction yet. The mutual funds that I sold a few weeks back are still way above where they were 6 months or a year ago.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
When the government started printing money at an ever increasing rate to encourage people to keep their money in the market, it was the beginning of the end. Now we'll have to watch to see how many investors believe that you can spend yourself out of debt...the rest are moving their money to guaranteed accounts. Just think how much worse things would look if the 401K accounts were not available to investment houses for market stabilization.
You know a hundred billion here, and a hundred billion there, and pretty soon you are talking about real money!
How long until we hit a trillion?
Ah the bail out!
In the U.S., the federal funds rate opened at 6 percent, the highest in six years. The rate fell to 5.25 percent after the New York Fed bought $19 billion of mortgage-backed securities and then followed up with $16 billion of funds in a second operation.
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added about $132.7 billion to the banking system today in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in global credit markets.
``This is a situation of great uncertainty,'' said Alice Rivlin, a former Fed vice chairman who's now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Central banks ``are all injecting credit in hopes that collectively they can stabilize things.''
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve added an additional $38 billion in temporary funds to the banking system through the purchase of securities including mortgage-backed debt.
<< <i>The Swiss and Italian central banks have been selling gold. If the Swiss banks don't want gold, why should I?
CG >>
They may be making a monumental error.
They might be doing it to show an air of confidence.
People should always own at least some gold and this is more true now than it has been in several years. As great as the risks are now they have been much higher in the past.
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added about $132.7 billion to the banking system today in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in global credit markets.
I wish they'd inject some of that into my bank account in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in my own personal credit market!
Next week's sucker's rally is primed and ready to go.
They're planning a party for next week, and didn't invite me? dang.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The guys in Washington are hoping that the Fed can prop up the "free market" long enough for the wealthy to get their money moved into safe investments...after that, who cares if the little investors and those relying on 401K accounts for their retirements lose their shirts.
<< <i>The guys in Washington are hoping that the Fed can prop up the "free market" long enough for the wealthy to get their money moved into safe investments...after that, who cares if the little investors and those relying on 401K accounts for their retirements lose their shirts. >>
As long as that DOW number keeps going up there'll be an endless supply of suckers. So what if tomorrow's dollar only buys half of what today's dollar can buy? Most morons will still think they're making money in the market.
Comments
<< <i>So there is no real effect to Gold markets when governments sell . >>
Then that must be why the Bank of England's sale didn't drop the price to 252.
ANY sale of STORED gold affects the market. Proportionally to size of sale.
Has to.
Most important post ever
And
Cramer goes nuts
Got gold?
ANY sale of STORED gold affects the market. Proportionally to size of sale. Has to.
It seems to me that CB sales of up to 15,000 tons of gold over the past 10-15 years certainly did plenty to help keep the gold price from spiraling out of control. Even some of the recent CB sales of only 10-100 tons helped to stop rallys that were occuring.
On paper I would agree that shifting gold around between the CB's should have no real effect on the overall gold market, but history seems to say something different.
That Cramer post is rather interesting. I was unaware of all the brew ha-ha Booya that was going on late last week. All I knew was that gold recovered some ground.
roadrunner
Got MORE gold? (and silver )?
Why is it that guys like Mr. Cramer never seem to see what many of us have been talking about right here in this thread for several years? There is just no way you can build a pyramid scheme like this with multiple leveraged deals that lasts forever, they all must crash in the end.
Surly Mr. Cramer knows that as weak as the dollars is on international markets that if the Fed starts reducing the interest rate they will not be able to roll the international debt, and most likely not even the debt being bought here.
How much room is there in our current rate? The Bank of England is paying 5.75% and the Europeans keep moving their Rate up, and both of these currencies are very strong compared to ours.
“The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate steady at 4 percent on Thursday.
The Bank of England also left its benchmark rate unchanged Thursday, at 5.75 percent.
Mr. Trichet’s use of that phrase suggested the bank’s benchmark interest rate would rise a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25 percent, at the next policy meeting, in September — the ninth increase since the end of 2005.”
(I've never seen CNBC play a disclaimer specifically citing Cramer like that one at the end of the segment.)
Edited to add: It might also be adviseable for that CNBC host to have a lithium dart gun handy, in the future.
I knew it would happen.
If the Fed cuts this week, what kind of message does that send? A bad one, methinks.
I don't think they cut til it gets really bad, where they are forced to act.
Like I said in another thread, the Fed is painted into a corner. Damned if they do,
damned if they don't.
There still hasn't been any place to hide, except for cash and some treasuries.
What the market seems to lack is accurate information on the extent of the subprime problem.
The Bear Stearns conference call was not helpful and the market quickly went down, probably
based upon some of the comments in the call. The stock and bond markets seem to be acting on emotion
in the absence of accurate information.
Perhaps the Fed could be helpful in saying what they will do if there is a major problem in liquidity and what they are prepared to do.
The markets need some calming down.
There is so much printed money in the world now that any scheme to make bets on nearly anything will allow you to set up a hedge fund.
Gambling in these crazy markets is not only great fun, but the leverage is fantastic. Put up $50,000 and get derivative leverage of $1,000,000. Not only that, but who cares what the money is for?
“Hedge Funds Pluck Money From Air in $19 Billion Weather Gamble
By Peter Robison
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group trader Patrick Ayash rarely reads earnings estimates and just skims news about inflation. One thing he never misses: the daily weather report.
Ayash, 31, is part of an army of mathematicians, hedge-fund whizzes and programmers pouring into the $19 billion market for weather futures, financial instruments tied to everything from storms over Kansas, an early frost in the Netherlands, or a frigid spring in New York.
The market was once a sideline for utilities looking to insure against swings in demand for natural gas or electricity. Now, with hedge funds increasingly hungry for market-beating returns, more are gambling on untested strategies.
``There are no 100 percent forecasts -- but what if we can say something with 80 percent confidence? That's where it gets interesting,'' says Brad Hoggatt, 35, chief portfolio manager of MSI GuaranteedWeather LLC, which sells weather futures.”
Enron Corp. sold the first weather derivative 10 years ago, agreeing to pay a utility $10,000 for each wintertime degree that was below normal.
In the year ended March 31, 2007, the contracts had a notional value, or face value, of $19 billion, according to the Weather Risk Management Association, a trade group in Washington.
<< <i>if the Fed starts reducing the interest rate they will not be able to roll the international debt, >>
I think the plan is to monetize the debt. The assumption is we need to sell Tbills to borrow money to spend. In fact, a lot of money that is spent is not borrowed, it is printed. This trend will continue to accelerate.
This process benefits the creditor (theUS and its debtor public) and harms the creditor (Asian countries and others with huge dollar reserves).
The plan is brilliant,
1) give them paper for real goods
2) allow the paper to loose value over time
3) keep the game going as long as possible.
4) Eventually make the paper worthless and create a new currency.
5) Repeat as needed.
The Bear Stearns conference call was not helpful and the market quickly went down, probably
based upon some of the comments in the call
Considering that since 2000 the derivatives market has exploded from $60 TRILL to hundreds of Trillions, one doesn't need much imagination to figure out that there is lots of hot air in these debt obligations. Subprime will get far worse.
roadrunner
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I know that the lenders were unabashedly predatory with the go go, no doc. loans and arm's, leaning well out over the edge of proper lending practices. We've discussed that here and it's been a well researched and nicely appointed discussion. But in addition to this discussion, I just got to watch my son in law go down at the hands of an exploding arm...and he's got my two grandchildren, this could cost me some real buks before it's all over. If he had told me before he went under, I could have helped...he didn't. Now, he's burnt toast on a pointy stick and I've got a couple of babies to worry about. All politics are local.
The lenders should burn but they are more likely to be helped by the govt. than the schlepps that got fried. Hedge funds are the culprit...they are like crap shooters betting on the come line and laying odds on the side to better their win pay out. In craps, the player makes the bet and wins or loses. If the govt. bailed the fund players out, it seems that it would open the gates to letting banks and funds fleece the workers from here to forever, with out any risk.
This whole thing just stinks...smell that, do you smell that?
I remember getting a fixed when GReenspan was saying all should take ARMs. The young were foolish enough to believe a government clown. Then when they were hooked he raised the rates 17 times in a row. Sucked em in and burned them.
Let the big boys burn but save the homeowners.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"People should only be bailed out if you want to see this happen again."
Absolutely correct!
Edited for spelling.
With home prices already so high, the regular folk never had a chance.
If in 2035 $2 million will only get me a 1500 sq ft townhome that needs to be updated, then I think we will all be living in tents.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Woah...get up wind of the fan. >>
This is mostly politically motivated. The last thing the Chinese want to see
is someone in office who is free spending and will reduce the value of their
dollars. Some people think the arms of the Chinese can be twisted but this
isn't the case. They hold most of the aces.
As they said though they don't want to upset the economic applecart. Diplo-
macy might work to get agreement that they need to ramp down their expor-
ting machine and trade a little growth for wealth. It's not like they gain noth-
ing with a more realistically valued currency.
They are 100% intent on bringing down the US. They will do this by destroying the US dollar. They have the means to do this right now.
I heard it said that the third world war will not be fought on the battlefield, but will be a 'financial' world war.
Hopefully, all this 'doom and gloom' will not transpire.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
CG
This will be a new outlet for their goods.
Why not take care of the standard of living at home first?
The day may be coming when we can't even get the Chinese trinkets here at home. To those that sold Manhattan for $24 in beads, we're on the same path. And in a complete 180...who owns all the newer casinos now?
roadrunner
<< <i>Unfortunately for us in North America, the Chinese are patiently waiting for the right time to pounce.
They are 100% intent on bringing down the US. They will do this by destroying the US dollar. They have the means to do this right now.
I heard it said that the third world war will not be fought on the battlefield, but will be a 'financial' world war.
Hopefully, all this 'doom and gloom' will not transpire. >>
they have had to cool thier own heels at home. they have a lot to learn to integrate.
i am just not as paranoid as you (yet)
this subprime fiasco will go supernova through the economy that is my biggest concern, short term.
<< <i>And the reason China would want to destroy the economy of the largest customer for their products is?
CG >>
First, not all countries think solely in terms of economics. Believe it or not, countries often act even when it's not in their short-term economic interest.
Second, why is it in their long-term economic interest to keep selling us stuff in exchange for overvalued paper currency?
They didn't need us before so now they have all of our dolllars we printed [no valuein real term in their world]
and if they don't play our game we'll ?
wake up they didn't need us before why in the world would they need us now
they can print money i think and have 90 % of their people waiting to play the game under their rules
just my thoughts
HUH
so no way they'll burn us we'll hurt them
i think the mideast nationized the oil fields so i guess chinese with their feelings for us wouldn't think of it
yea right
nothing like being played but we pay our way well kind of we do print real well
and it looks great
roadrunner
you are exactly right.....and thats exactly why the fed no longer controls the money supply....why have the fed print the money when you can print it yourself....now that we are awash in cash...aka credit derivatives....we have been inflating at over 10% for a few years now...100k in salary on jan 06 will be worth severnty something christmas 07
sure is a shame that the leaders in washington dont have a clue what a derivative is.....as they should of legislated controls...too late now!!!
the fact is....washington has spent the entire 45 trillion we have sent in for social security.....are running a huge budget def....and are now stuck with only one " bullet" left to stop a recession and that is to lower rates....WHICH THEY WILL DO LATER IN THE YEAR....which in turn will spin inflation up a notch or two
so what is a business owner to do in order to survive ???you got it...raise prices.....in fact i already have in order to get in front of the curve......aka more inflation
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/08/07/bcnchina107a.xml
They'd never try that they're are friends right?
Regarding "100k in salary on jan 06 will be worth seventy something christmas 07"
Where are you expecting dramatic price increases?
Will the house that was worth $ 200,000 in Jan 06 we selling for $ 280,000 in Christmas 07?
Will the Toyota I bought for $ 35,000 cost $ 50,000?
Will the computer that sold for $ 2000 sell for $ 2800?
Will my daughter's $40,000 college tuition go to $57,000?
I am definitely concerned with inflationary pressures, but I don't see 100 depreciating to around 70 in this period.
(1) A dollar crisis would be as damaging to China as it would to the US. (So probably they are smart enough to "dump in moderation"!)
(2) It would be a good thing for us if China and other countries were less willing to fund our deficit spending.
(3) Henry Paulson is correct that protectionist measures being discussed in Congress pose a grave danger to the global economy. A move towards protectionism is a more serious risk than China dumping dollars.
>>>I am definitely concerned with inflationary pressures, but I don't see 100 depreciating to around 70 in this period.
i guess you dont go to the grocery store...where as the 100 bag of groceries has been getting smaller and smaller
been to a resturant lately...that coke which used to be 90 cents...then 1.20....then 1.40....then 1.60.....now is at 1.90
in nov 2006 gas was 1.95.....now 2.75
have you been reading in your paper where your teachers got raises this year...expect your property taxes to go up next year
have you been reading where corn is up 100% year over year??? now you dont eat much corn but the cattle do....you beef has gone up
while prices go up and raises are given....expect every single aspect of prices to go up....garbage collection....city services ect ect
now you might be looking a t the core inflation rate which is the benchmark washington uses for governemtn entitlements and now arounf 2.5% but headline inflation is the number we all feel!!!which ws 10.3% in 2006.....THAT IS A REAL FIGURE!!!...add that to what your feeling this year and that will total over 20% in 2 years....FACT
had any home repairs done lately????? you will see then...plumbers tacking on trip charges to cover gas costs......
the fact is i own 8 stores and have had 17 price increases from my largest supplier.....and passed every penny along to you the consumer.....in fact i added some to cover increased labor costs
the inflation you should be feeling but arent is real....maybe your just rich and dont feel it....but 250 million other americans feel it...i can assure you
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
<< <i>
the inflation you should be feeling but aren't is real....maybe your just rich and don't feel it....but 250 million other Americans feel it...i can assure you
monsterman >>
Heck yes I can feel it. 3 years ago I signed a 3 year contract for what was a healthy raise and very good money. It still is a very good salary.
However, I keep an accurate log of expenses. I can tell you my water bill for any month 10-12 years ago, as an example.
Each month/quarter I can see less and less left over after basic living costs and my mortgage hasn't gone up. Property taxes sure have, though, as well as insurance. Homeowners was up 7% this year, while the actual value of my house is dropping. People are taking 100K less to sell in my neighborhood, one couple ended up taking 150K less just a few homes down the street and theirs was the only one that has sold in several months. There must be close to a dozen for sale in short walking distance. My guess is they had ARMs. Never have so many been for sale at once. This is an upscale Houston area. Memorial/Wilchester, for those that know Houston.
Back on point: what's left over for investments/savings is less and less each month. It's inch by inch, so you don't notice the bite severely, but if you keep records, it's shocking. Kind of like the frog in the cool water as you slowly turn up the heat till he's boiled alive.
That contract comes up again this September First. You can bet I'll have the paperwork in hand to show the inflationary nature of our current situation, not to mention why I've earned a raise over that as well.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Gee, how much private American debt has gone to foreigners in the last few years?
Most of the ARM mortgages made over the last five years have not even reset yet, if this is what the start of this looks like things should be real interesting in 6 to 12 months.
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank, in an unprecedented response to a sudden demand for cash from banks roiled by the subprime mortgage collapse in the U.S., loaned 94.8 billion euros ($130 billion) to assuage a credit crunch.
``There seems to be a hole in the balance sheet of World Inc. that will have to be filled by government intervention,'' said Peter Lynch, chairman of private equity fund Prime Active Capital Plc in Dublin.”
The ECB said today it provided the largest amount ever in a single so-called ``fine-tuning'' operation, exceeding the 69.3 billion euros given on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the terror attacks on New York.
The ECB's decision, just one week after the German government arranged the bailout of IKB Deutsche Industriebank, is confirmation that the subprime debacle isn't contained within the U.S.
The U.S. Federal Reserve added $24 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system today.
How long until we hit a trillion?
Ah the bail out!
In the U.S., the federal funds rate opened at 6 percent, the highest in six years. The rate fell to 5.25 percent after the New York Fed bought $19 billion of mortgage-backed securities and then followed up with $16 billion of funds in a second operation.
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added about $132.7 billion to the banking system today in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in global credit markets.
``This is a situation of great uncertainty,'' said Alice Rivlin, a former Fed vice chairman who's now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Central banks ``are all injecting credit in hopes that collectively they can stabilize things.''
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve added an additional $38 billion in temporary funds to the banking system through the purchase of securities including mortgage-backed debt.
CG
<< <i>The Swiss and Italian central banks have been selling gold. If the Swiss banks don't want gold, why should I?
CG >>
They may be making a monumental error.
They might be doing it to show an air of confidence.
People should always own at least some gold and this is more
true now than it has been in several years. As great as the risks
are now they have been much higher in the past.
I wish they'd inject some of that into my bank account in an attempt to avert a crisis of confidence in my own personal credit market!
Next week's sucker's rally is primed and ready to go.
They're planning a party for next week, and didn't invite me? dang.
I knew it would happen.
Strategic Delivery Failures in U.S. Equity Markets
EDIT: Of course, Reg SHO fixed everything... just like Reg FD gave us all equal access to information. LOL
Well, I didn't get an invite. So, I'm not sure if I'll even go. After all, it's my party and I'll go if I want to.............
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Without you there would be no party. Don't you wish you could borrow from the DTCC like MMs do?
Strategic Delivery Failures in U.S. Equity Markets
EDIT: Of course, Reg SHO fixed everything... just like Reg FD gave us all equal access to information. LOL >>
This is a PDF file.
<< <i>The guys in Washington are hoping that the Fed can prop up the "free market" long enough for the wealthy to get their money moved into safe investments...after that, who cares if the little investors and those relying on 401K accounts for their retirements lose their shirts.
As long as that DOW number keeps going up there'll be an endless supply of suckers. So what if tomorrow's dollar only buys half of what today's dollar can buy? Most morons will still think they're making money in the market.