These numbers are usually VERY accurate. They are not poll numbers. There might be some slight revision as additional info comes in, but I would say the error is measured in one hundreths of percent.
Point of the post was that even as the economy sank into oblivion, tapped out American consumers still found a way to spend money. Some of this is pent up demand as business basically stopped in January. Eventually the consumer will say "No Mas", then we get the next leg down, which will provide a great opportunity to buy distressed assets.
This might be J6P's way of getting his bailout money figuring that his c/c may not always be there. If he goes bankrupt even better as he won't have to pay any of it back.
To those that are serially suspect at any stats posted here and by definition ignore them, here's an article using ONLY govt provided banking, derivatives and Comex stats....all from the OCC and CTFC. All real numbers in easy to read format. What Douglas is pointing at is the apparent continued and increased manipulation of gold and silver prices. In looking at the charts in 2006/2007 the degree in silver and gold shorting by 2 US banks (thought to be JPM and HSBC) is rather controlled. Even as gold and silver rose to peaks from the end of 2007 to March 2008, these guys were actually tapering down their Comex short positions, possibly just to profit on the run up. And like smart betters they kept those shorts off for the next few months as prices lingered below the peaks.... that is until July. At that point their short positions increased massively to in essence garner the bulk of all short positions. Unlike in early 2008, they did not reduce their short positions after the metals crashed in July-October. They have kept them on, even with gold and silver staging 40% rallys. Why the big change in logic in their short philosophy from early 2008 to late 2008?
Other interesting facts in the charts shown:
Silver derivatives held by the above 2 banks in 2007 was $10.8 BILL. Silver derivatives held by the 2 banks in July 2008 just prior to the July PM's crash was $15.8 BILL. A 46% increases. (100% of annual silver production value is only $8.8 BILL/yr.) The 2 banks needed to hedge almost 2 yrs of silver production value??
These 2 banks have held about 90% of all PM's (non-gold) derivatives for the majority of 2007-2008. 4th qtr of 2008 was 98%.
Yes, there is always a long for every short, and supposedly a counter party to every derivative, but that same argument has helped get us to where we are today. If 50 bankers took out 50 derivative bets that your neighbor's house would burn down, are there really 50 counterparties to those bets that figure it won't burn down? If the house had a Fannie mortgage with a market value of $200,000, then the 50 bets on the transaction are worth notionally 50 x $200K = $10 MILL. Yet the cost to make ALL the bets at 50-1 leverage is only the orig value of the house, or $200K. If the winners are all paid off via the govt, then $9.8 MILL in money has been created. Where's the deflation in this even assuming that the house has dropped 25% in value to $175,000?
Note too that while bail out money is being funneled through AIG to pay off losing and highly leveraged derivative bets, only the broker bank's name is listed. The actual winner's name of the derivative bet will not be known. It could be the bank itself or it could be a different 3rd party. The initial derivative contract played little role in the money supply or inflation when it was created. But now that it is being payed off at 30-1 or 50-1, that money is ending up with a winner who will eventually spend/invest it. The overall transaction imo is not a "wash" and appears to be net-inflationary. If the derivatives were just all canceled so that winners were not paid off then that would be a wash.
About 3 weeks ago when the DOW was near 6500, I began to sell naked puts on many of the "blue chips"---MSFT, MMM, BA, ect. This means that I was selling someone the right to sell their stock to me at a specific price. My thought was that the market was oversold and we would rebound thus no one would sell (put) their stock to me, since the current market value would be higher than my put contract price. All of the contracts expired worthless or I closed with 90%+ of potential gain.
So what I did was open a short position---I sold puts. Is it possible that the short position in PMs are actually naked puts contracts? In this case the seller of the puts would want the price to move higher or stay stable so the contract expires worthless and the sell makes the premium on the sale.
It seems strange to me that there is ALWAYS a massive short position.
Ted Butler's article on 4th qtr data released by the govt's own OCC (Office of Comptroller of the Currency). It shows a massive dumping of gold and silver derivatives in the 4th quarter....approx 20% drop in gold derivatives. Considering that these OTC derivatives are exempt from any regulation and any congressional oversight it's much easier to manipulate paper markets here (ie influence Comex pricing) than anywhere else. If one asks why didn't gold didn't perform better in the wake of the financial crisis, this is one possibility. The gold derivatives dropped by approx $20 BILL. Butler suggests that this would have been a good way to hit the gold price and at the same time allow JPM an opportunity to reduce it short derivative's risk. It's like having a 2nd Comex for a couple of big banks, only completely free of any regulation whatsoever. Complete unregulation was one of the features purposely designed into new derivative's regulations in the late 1990's and championed by Alan Greenspan. Greenspan said that the big boys could faithfully regulate themselves.
This article shows the current CDS and IRS views. Basically, the Interest Rate Swap risks are starting to leak out. Some interesting OCC stats follow:
Top 5 US banks own 96% of the total derivatives exposure. Top 25 banks own 99.78% of the total derivatives. JPM carries a 382% Credit Derivatives exposure vs risk based capital. GS has a 1056% Credit D's exposure. The highest ratio of all banks. Int. Rate Swap losses were a record $3.5 BILL last qtr. (7X higher than any previous recorded qtr). Int. Rate Swaps are 82% of the total derivatives pie (CDS at 7.8%) IRS swaps dwarf the CDS exposure at over 10X larger. JPM has $87 TRILLION in derivatives. GS has $30 TRILLION in derivatives.
This should be the kicker. Hummmm...surely that's what some of the bank bail out is for as this would have been predicted by the paper boys and already be written into the forward assessments. So, if the cardholder defaults and the bank has to eat it but they get stimulus to cover the losses then those of us that are actually paying for the taxes for the bail out are actually bailing out our non paying neighbor with our federal taxes...kind of like paying their mortgage so this must be phase II of spreading the wealth around a little.
On the other hand, there is no way we are going to get past this economic resturcturing until it has been dealt with so let's just move on, stay loose, and let things sort themselves out however they may. Besides, there is pretty much nothing that can be done about it right now except gripe a little and pay our "fair" share. We can add up the score later.
<< <i>This should be the kicker. Hummmm...surely that's what some of the bank bail out is for as this would have been predicted by the paper boys and already be written into the forward assessments. So, if the cardholder defaults and the bank has to eat it but they get stimulus to cover the losses then those of us that are actually paying for the taxes for the bail out are actually bailing out our non paying neighbor with our federal taxes...kind of like paying their mortgage so this must be phase II of spreading the wealth around a little.
On the other hand, there is no way we are going to get past this economic resturcturing until it has been dealt with so let's just move on, stay loose, and let things sort themselves out however they may. Besides, there is pretty much nothing that can be done about it right now except gripe a little and pay our "fair" share. We can add up the score later.
By DAVID STREITFELD Published: March 31, 2009 MOUNT PLEASANT, S.C. — Boat owners are abandoning ship.
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
The bad economy is creating a flotilla of forsaken boats. While there is no national census of abandoned boats, officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.
Marina and maritime officials around the country say they believe, however, that most of the abandoned vessels cluttering their waters are fully paid for. They are expensive-to-maintain toys that have lost their appeal.
The owners cannot sell them, because the secondhand market is overwhelmed. They cannot afford to spend hundreds of dollars a month mooring and maintaining them. And they do not have the thousands of dollars required to properly dispose of them.
When Brian A. Lewis of Seattle tried to sell his boat, Jubilee, no one would pay his asking price of $28,500. Mr. Lewis told the police that maintaining the boat caused “extreme anxiety,” which led him to him drill a two-inch hole in Jubilee’s hull last March. In South Carolina, four government investigators started canvassing the state’s waterways in January. They quickly identified 150 likely derelicts.
Article links the recent low visibility news that the ECB sold 35.5 tons of gold this week as part of their long term selling agreement. What was also interesting was the Deutsche Bank delivered 850,000 ounces of gold on 3/31 to cover the April Comex contract. Question was, did DB who was shorting 8,500 contracts actually have it to give, or did the ECB come to their aid to prevent the Comex from looking bad if they couldn't drum up the ounces?
Interesting day at the G20 summit where the word is that $1 TRILL more in money will be tossed at the current problems. At the same time FASB announces relaxation of marked to market accounting rules...whatever "orderly" means. Just coincidentally during all this chaos the dollar falls 2.5% and oil and commodities rise....except for gold and silver of course which got pounded again. Gold in particular took the biggest licking today. Looks like "risk aversion" is out again but that may change with the next gust of wind.
Charles Bowsher, Chairman of the FHLBS Office of Finance since April 2007 decided to resign rather than sign off on the audit of the 12 banks he supervises. He does not agree with the way many of the MBS's are valued, esp in light of the relaxing of the M2M accounting rules. Better to leave rather than sign off on something you don't believe in. Bowsher was Comptroller General back in the early 1990's. He commented in 1994 that the derivatives dealers and that market in general needed more oversight to ensure that players were financially sound. He had that one right as well. The FHLBS oversees a total of $1.2 TRILLION.
Charles Bowsher, Chairman of the FHLBS Office of Finance since April 2007 decided to resign rather than sign off on the audit of the 12 banks he supervises. He does not agree with the way many of the MBS's are valued, esp in light of the relaxing of the M2M accounting rules. Better to leave rather than sign off on something you don't believe in. Bowsher was Comptroller General back in the early 1990's. He commented in 1994 that the derivatives dealers and that market in general needed more oversight to ensure that players were financially sound. He had that one right as well. The FHLBS oversees a total of $1.2 TRILLION.
roadrunner >>
am i understanding this correctly he was alright with signing off on it for the last several years but only when the crap hits the fan he decides he does not want to?
Or better yet he did not understand all these years what he was signing off on and only when the crap hit the fan did he pay attention? After all the profits were nice and allowed him not to have to pay attention?
I am skeptical of this whole thing about portraying him as an honest man. More like a rat scurrying from the sinking ship.
The last several years? What are you talking about, fc?
If he started his job in April 2007, then the only full year that he's been in charge of the FHLBS was 2008 - and that's the year that he's not willing to sign off on the audit. He saw a problem and won't agree to the valuation that resulted from the recent change in accounting rules.
Same thing as with mark to market. They want to relax the rules so that the worthless crap will stay on the books forever, which is also a very dishonest approach.
I don't understand your cynicism towards a guy who hasn't done anything except to stand up and object to more financial shenanigans.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
fc seems to side with the opposite opinion regardless of what is presented (could just be selective speed reading). I wonder if he would agree with a similar situation: that former AIG CEO Maurice Greenberg had no role in AIG's financial mess considering he was gone in 2005, long before the "official" SHTF. (but does it make a difference that the crap started in the 1990's and continued up until his departure?). Something tells me that those hot shot CEO's who left many huge corporations and govt agencies from 2004-2007 knew what was coming and wanted to distance themselves as much as possible from the fallout while keeping their parachutes golden.
On a lighter tone, recent AIG auditing is starting to show that AIG's off shore accounts were possibly a tax evasion haven for many of its bigger clients and corporations (esp Real Estate) throughout most of the roaring 1990's. When regulators are away, the cats will play.
This is a pretty simple graph. Its not hard to see that we had a stagnant economy while savings rates were high and a booming economy as savings rates were falling. Now as savings rates are supposed to be increasing, what do you think will be the economic impact? Is govt spending going to pick up the slack?
my mistake. i read it as he was there for several years while jmski is totally correct he was only at the post since Apr 2007. I take back my comments. I thought he was there for years.
<< <i>"I still find it amazing how quickly the world economy came to a virtual standstill."
Yes, a very interesting phenomenon. The system was wound so tightly in an effort to wring every last cent out of an already maxed out US consumer and using that income as a way to pump up asset fund paper values well beyond any credible justification. The main problem was people were projecting strong growth at the top while the assuming the health of the prey propulation was stable and prospering...at least, that's what it looked like on paper. We here had noticed the disconnect a while back, well before anyone put it in the media but you can be sure folk that were working the deals must have had questions about the sustainability of the model but they plowed ahead anyway with their paper derivatives based on the continued spending and increasing indebetness of the mullets as the managers collected their bonuses and vacationed in Costa Rica; life was good for the paper boys, life was good for the mullets, it was all good.
They assumed the mullets could handle the toxic mortgages that were slipped to them, like someone slipping a date rap e drug in their drink while the hapless consumees listen to the live music of their own success. The model was flawed and people knew this but they kept piping the sunshine into the living rooms of the new middle class. They blew sunshine into the credit cards also, upping the limits so everyone could spend more while slipping in some 29.9% interest rates and other corporate friendly onerous small print terms...hoping to boost the corporate projected income on paper but they knew, they were just hanging paper; no way the consumers could handle the load. New car, new house, new stuff, cash in hand...same ol' job with the same lame pay and benefits; how could it possibly work? But, methinks what turned the worm is the $4 gas. Once a little pressure was put on the US consumer, the game was up; he couldn't pay in cash. Then the ARM resets started and then the house of cards began to cave and the rest is in the history books. The whole thing didn't take 90 days and spread across the globe like a tsunami of cash destruction. The US consumer was shouldering the world aided by the paper boys spreading their joy like confetti falling from a pinata and everyone in the world was lapping at the pool happiness and prosperity.
Those that realized that the model was unsustainable kept stashing cash, slashing personal debt, hoarding metal and hard assets...we talked about it here, we took comfort in the strategy and the recognition, we preached it to those that would listen but it was already too late to turn the herd. But, no one is laughing just because they saw it coming, everyone got cut a little...a quick flick of a butterfly knife as the blade bumps along the rib cage. "There is no joy in Mudville-the mighty Casey has struck out." >>
Exactly.
This sums up the mess and this thread pretty well.
But more importantly this is probably pretty close to how history will view this debacle.
I think, though, that history is going to be very hard on the regulators and on ignoring the warnings of 1987 and LTCM.
From our point in time it's difficult to see many possible scenarios where this comes out well in the near term for anyone except those who have had their fingers in the cookie jar and those who are supposed to be watching them.
Link to BIS semi-annual report. This is the currency page. What is of interest are the gold, non-gold PM's, and commodities information. We already know that the total size of the otc derivatives is $683 TRILLION of which the large majority are interest rate contracts. But the size of the commodity sector is pretty impressive, actually dwarfing what is seen on the Comex.
These are the notional values. Note that they also list the gross value (net) at approx 3% of the notional. It remains to be seen if such a number means anything when the counter party can't pay up.
The gold derivatives are roughly equivalent to 19,000 tons of gold or about 60% of what the CB's claim to still own. This would also be equivalent to about 1/8th of the world's historical total mined gold and about 6X the average annual world demand. This is also about 6X the size of the max Comex shorts that the top couple of banks carry. So obviously they can do more damage under the totally unregulated otc derivatives. And at 35 to 1 leverage, why not, no one is watching.
The size of the silver derivatives are simply amazing considering the current gold to silver ratio is 71 to 1. Yet their difference is only 3.4X. Why in the heck would there be such a need for a net position so huge? This would be equivalent to a current price of silver at $255/oz or gold at $41/oz depending on which way you look at it. Considering that the annual usage of silver is around $1-$2 BILL per year, the derivatives give over a 100 yr annual supply! Note also that the amount of silver derivatives more than doubled over the past 2 years ($84 Bill to $190 Bill). Does anyone think these were placed by the miners for hedging? (lol). The net Palladium and Platinum markets are far smaller than silver so it is a safe bet to assume that most of the "non-gold" derivative contracts are for silver. Plat and Pall are industrial metals and most of the hedging is done by the manufacturers and miners. The analysis above was taken from Jason Hommel. I've read other sources who have made the same estimate with silver undoubtedly being the lion's share of the non-gold number. The base derivative's numbers are all from Uncle Sam - 100% accurate.
If I was forced to bet on either massive manipulation of PM's or minimal to no manipulation, I'd have to go with massive. I don't see how the numbers at Comex and BIS say anything different. It still comes down to what is more beneficial to the bankers and currency managment? You have to have a strong leash on anything that can alter the perceived value of the currency.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
"We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century.
In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it.
I dunno, but 100 million ounces, worth only $90,000,000,000 seems pretty small to really impact the market much. Congress spends that much on a few earmarks here and there without even flinching.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
"We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century.
In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it. >>
Nice find RG. I was thinking how a new world currency could come into play. That has been bantered about here for some time. When I heard the news of a Trillion ($) stimulus for the world at the G-20, I thought in what currency? Is the US taxpayer on the hook? Then I thought what if the IMF created their own currency. I didn't know that it was already on the books. There you have it...a new world currency...SDR. I'm sure the SDR will be named something more colorful down the road like the "globero." If this is truly the intent then there will be a slow destruction of all currencies.
Sinclair has discussed the IMF gold and SDR's at lengths. Neither will have any impact on the long term price of gold. These are things that are periodically trotted out more for effect than substance. He stated that the IMF SDR's was tried back in 1969 and was a failure back them. On more current news the IMF just reported that bank losses will probably be 2X larger than what has already been reported....approx $4 TRILL. No surprise to anyone here. Sinclair estimated total banking losses at a minimum of $10-$20 TRILL 2 years ago. Was this the bad news that needed gold fully "prepped" during the G20 meeting or is there similar news due out soon?
I like Katz's simpler view of the Great Depression as it is not typically in line with what most economists spout. He has mentioned anecdotally that one of the reasons for the FED pulling back liquidity in 1920 as well as 1930-1932 was to reduce the price of a 10c cigar back to it's original price of 5c. The FED succeeded on the cigar pricing, but at the expense of causing/worsening 2 recessions.
A link to gold's historical role from 1850 to the present. I found it interesting that during WW1 the gold standard was "in limbo" without it being closely followed. During that time the US money supply was doubled and then had to be contracted in 1920, causing a recession in 1921. Most everyone concludes that gold was a fixed and adhered to standard from the 1800's on. Yet it wasn't until 1900 that the US first got fully on board. One might say that a strict gold standard may have only existed from 1900-1913. After 1913 it was altered in many ways over the years until it's demise in 1971.
To those that criticize gold as a failure during panics of yesteryear, remember that gold as money, was only as good as the integrity of the bankers and regulators adherence to the standards. It's no different with today's bankers and how well they have adhered to generally acceptable/unacceptable financial principles. The existence of a gold standard plays no role in the performance in how well standards are adhered to. Had a gold standard been in effect during the era of otc derivatives it would have had no effect in stemming them since they exist outside the world of any regulation.
All these Globalists and foolish bureaucrats can talk about, and play with, their little SDR’S and world currencies all they like but in the end this is a big waste of time. No matter how the socialists like the idea they have simply not thought this through.
In order to have a balanced world currency one must also have lots of regulations that determine just how many "globeros" each country would be able to have and how much DEBT each country would be allowed.
If we told the IMF the U.S.A needs access to 75 Trillion "globeros" because we spent all the Social Security and Medicare money for our people, the Chicoms, the Arabs, and many others would have to say,” no way comrade.”
If the U.S.A. had to pay for its "globeros" in un-inflated cash or hard goods it would never have enough to pay its obligations.
In terms of per capita debt we are not a 3rd world country we are a 5th world country.
Kirby lists some OCC data that I wasn't familiar with, that is some of the credit derivative's positions held by major corporations. These companies all have credit derivative positions at least $4 BILL greater than their total market value. A number of these are in the $14-$40 BILL range. The average leveraged value for those companies in the red is 22X to 1. The names are quite recognizable:
Time Warner, Aetna, Alcoa, Autozone, Sprint Nextel, Ford, Toll Brothers, CBS, Whirlpool, Ford, GMAC, etc. Clearly, the outcome of the derivative bets would be crucial in knowing how a company will perform in the future. Are most of these companies future TARP or TALF recipients?
AIG has been able to lower it's CDS exposure from $2.6 TRILLION to $1.6 TRILLION. The flip side of that is that the 6 major US banks still carry $15.8 TRILL in CDS exposure. JPM alone has $8.39 TRILLION. The US has about 1/3 of the world's exposure. Since the CDS reached their peak in 2008, total CDS exposure is now only about 90% of what it once was.
"In terms of per capita debt we are not a 3rd world country we are a 5th world country."
Yep, there was a news article last week about how the US couldn't qualify to be in the EU because of the lack of capitalization aka the national debt. A peculiar assessment in light of the fact that we spend trillions for insurance companies, banks, programs of this and that nature...another unworkable model. Members of the EU Hey, you mean Slovenia and Lithuania are more qualified to be in the EU than US?
<< <i>"In terms of per capita debt we are not a 3rd world country we are a 5th world country."
Yep, there was a news article last week about how the US couldn't qualify to be in the EU because of the lack of capitalization aka the national debt. A peculiar assessment in light of the fact that we spend trillions for insurance companies, banks, programs of this and that nature...another unworkable model. Members of the EU Hey, you mean Slovenia and Lithuania are more qualified to be in the EU than US? >>
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I wonder if BHO's intent during his European Apology Tour is to enter the US into the EU someday....because it's are only hope. Give up our rights, religion, property and Constitution for debt forgiveness.
( )
Comrade Renski
PS: Don't confuse the "globero" with the "globeso" which will be the interim currency.
"...if these results were released during earnings-season we'd see another Jan-Mar decline in the market."
Manage the information and you can manage the herd. It's unfortunate that a byproduct of hiding critical financial information like stress test results, tarp fund distributions, etc, results in us mullets having our stock funds and our bank money at risk with institutions that are known by the administration to be insolvent. But, it is fun listening to the admin reps telling us why we don't need to know this stuff anyway. Why would they do that? Hummmm...how much do you think those globeros are going to sell for?
Reggie Middleton points our today that the stress test is using umemployment estimates that are not realisitic, and therefore will arrive at incorrect results. The stress test assumed base rate unemployment has already been exceeded this past month. The highest possible rate they are assuming is 8.9% and will likely be exceeded before the year is out.
On a happier note, the Comex silver supplies have been drawn down from 80 MILL to 63 MILL ounces of silver since December. Of particular interest is the delivery of 2 MILL ounces each of the past 5 trading days. Someone seems to be in a big hurry to pick up some silver. Another few weeks of that and the silver ETF SLV will hold more silver than the Comex. 6 weeks of this and it will be emptied. As I mentioned earlier, why do the top couple of banks need $190 BILLION in silver derivatives to cover $756 MILL in Comex silver value using the above inventory number? This is a ratio of 251 to 1. Can you say massive overkill?
At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year
on a happy note............. A little town Pico Rivera(66,000) in Los Angeles county thought they'd be clever a few years ago and raise a little money by increasing sales tax. Little did they think that would become so popular with the county and the state and now their sales tax rate is 11%. Wonder how that is working out for them?
Generally speaking...........THE TOTAL effect of UNEMPLOYMENT in a lot of areas in SoCal ...............if you measure a) total out of work, b) total underemployed and c) those that have involuntarily or voluntarily just plain given up-------------is close to 20% .
I see a lot of slow business's and nobody hiring. People just aren't spending. __________________________________________________________________________ I love the banner ad on this thread
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I see a lot of slow business's and nobody hiring. People just aren't spending
All the more reason to tax them more on what they do make and spend.
In my state of NY we are facing a $16 billion deficit, so what did the legislators do? Increase spending by $6 billion!!. What is wrong with these people? I have a gut wrenching feeling this is all going to end very badly.
At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year >>
With the sole exception of Arizona the 10 States are all "blue" states - Illinois, New Jersey, California and New York are deep, dark blue.
But some of these dirtbags said Dr Paul's ideas were "kooky". ( the same people whose "ideas" makes a convincing argument that evolution is a failed theory )
It appears that many of the assumptions about worse than expected stress test results or that the treasurey was hoping to delay or muzzle any information getting out, for the sake of keeping markets from tumbling during earnings season, were misguided.
<< <i>It seems almost certain we will see efforts to impose a national sales tax, over and above the income tax, as a means of funding national health care. >>
Agree 100%.
The dreaded VAT or "value" added tax. I ask my friends in Europe and Canada what the "value" added is, and no one can give me an answer.
There is a large VAT added to the price of silver purchases over in Europe, 15% if memory serves me. No reason not to expect silver and gold to be one of the early recipients of such a tax.
In reading an article today it was made quite clear that "scrap" gold is now the biggest gold miner in the world, by a mile. We could see 1500-2000 tons per year not too far down the road if prices escalate. The continuing movement of scrap gold to the market can change dynamics immensely.
Comments
<< <i>
My comments....Spending increases while income decreases. Only in America. Thank God for credit cards!! >>
those percentages are tiny. what is the margin of error? probably +-2-3 percent. heh.
These numbers are usually VERY accurate. They are not poll numbers. There might be some slight revision as additional info comes in, but I would say the error is measured in one hundreths of percent.
Point of the post was that even as the economy sank into oblivion, tapped out American consumers still found a way to spend money. Some of this is pent up demand as business basically stopped in January. Eventually the consumer will say "No Mas", then we get the next leg down, which will provide a great opportunity to buy distressed assets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This might be J6P's way of getting his bailout money figuring that his c/c may not always be there. If he goes bankrupt even better as he won't have to pay any of it back.
Pirates of the Comex - Adrian Douglas
To those that are serially suspect at any stats posted here and by definition ignore them, here's an article using ONLY govt provided banking, derivatives and Comex stats....all from the OCC and CTFC. All real numbers in easy to read format. What Douglas is pointing at is the apparent continued and increased manipulation of gold and silver prices. In looking at the charts in 2006/2007 the degree in silver and gold shorting by 2 US banks (thought to be JPM and HSBC) is rather controlled. Even as gold and silver rose to peaks from the end of 2007 to March 2008, these guys were actually tapering down their Comex short positions, possibly just to profit on the run up. And like smart betters they kept those shorts off for the next few months as prices lingered below the peaks.... that is until July. At that point their short positions increased massively to in essence garner the bulk of all short positions. Unlike in early 2008, they did not reduce their short positions after the metals crashed in July-October. They have kept them on, even with gold and silver staging 40% rallys. Why the big change in logic in their short philosophy from early 2008 to late 2008?
Other interesting facts in the charts shown:
Silver derivatives held by the above 2 banks in 2007 was $10.8 BILL.
Silver derivatives held by the 2 banks in July 2008 just prior to the July PM's crash was $15.8 BILL. A 46% increases.
(100% of annual silver production value is only $8.8 BILL/yr.) The 2 banks needed to hedge almost 2 yrs of silver production value??
These 2 banks have held about 90% of all PM's (non-gold) derivatives for the majority of 2007-2008. 4th qtr of 2008 was 98%.
Yes, there is always a long for every short, and supposedly a counter party to every derivative, but that same argument has helped get us to where we are today. If 50 bankers took out 50 derivative bets that your neighbor's house would burn down, are there really 50 counterparties to those bets that figure it won't burn down? If the house had a Fannie mortgage with a market value of $200,000, then the 50 bets on the transaction are worth notionally 50 x $200K = $10 MILL. Yet the cost to make ALL the bets at 50-1 leverage is only the orig value of the house, or $200K. If the winners are all paid off via the govt, then $9.8 MILL in money has been created. Where's the deflation in this even assuming that the house has dropped 25% in value to $175,000?
Note too that while bail out money is being funneled through AIG to pay off losing and highly leveraged derivative bets, only the broker bank's name is listed. The actual winner's name of the derivative bet will not be known. It could be the bank itself or it could be a different 3rd party. The initial derivative contract played little role in the money supply or inflation when it was created. But now that it is being payed off at 30-1 or 50-1, that money is ending up with a winner who will eventually spend/invest it. The overall transaction imo is not a "wash" and appears to be net-inflationary. If the derivatives were just all canceled so that winners were not paid off then that would be a wash.
roadrunner
About 3 weeks ago when the DOW was near 6500, I began to sell naked puts on many of the "blue chips"---MSFT, MMM, BA, ect. This means that I was selling someone the right to sell their stock to me at a specific price. My thought was that the market was oversold and we would rebound thus no one would sell (put) their stock to me, since the current market value would be higher than my put contract price. All of the contracts expired worthless or I closed with 90%+ of potential gain.
So what I did was open a short position---I sold puts. Is it possible that the short position in PMs are actually naked puts contracts? In this case the seller of the puts would want the price to move higher or stay stable so the contract expires worthless and the sell makes the premium on the sale.
It seems strange to me that there is ALWAYS a massive short position.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ted Butler's article on 4th qtr data released by the govt's own OCC (Office of Comptroller of the Currency). It shows a massive dumping of gold and silver derivatives in the 4th quarter....approx 20% drop in gold derivatives. Considering that these OTC derivatives are exempt from any regulation and any congressional oversight it's much easier to manipulate paper markets here (ie influence Comex pricing) than anywhere else. If one asks why didn't gold didn't perform better in the wake of the financial crisis, this is one possibility. The gold derivatives dropped by approx $20 BILL. Butler suggests that this would have been a good way to hit the gold price and at the same time allow JPM an opportunity to reduce it short derivative's risk. It's like having a 2nd Comex for a couple of big banks, only completely free of any regulation whatsoever. Complete unregulation was one of the features purposely designed into new derivative's regulations in the late 1990's and championed by Alan Greenspan. Greenspan said that the big boys could faithfully regulate themselves.
CDS and Interest Rate Swap view of OCC 4th qtr report
This article shows the current CDS and IRS views. Basically, the Interest Rate Swap risks are starting to leak out. Some interesting OCC stats follow:
Top 5 US banks own 96% of the total derivatives exposure.
Top 25 banks own 99.78% of the total derivatives.
JPM carries a 382% Credit Derivatives exposure vs risk based capital.
GS has a 1056% Credit D's exposure. The highest ratio of all banks.
Int. Rate Swap losses were a record $3.5 BILL last qtr. (7X higher than any previous recorded qtr).
Int. Rate Swaps are 82% of the total derivatives pie (CDS at 7.8%)
IRS swaps dwarf the CDS exposure at over 10X larger.
JPM has $87 TRILLION in derivatives.
GS has $30 TRILLION in derivatives.
roadrunner
On the other hand, there is no way we are going to get past this economic resturcturing until it has been dealt with so let's just move on, stay loose, and let things sort themselves out however they may. Besides, there is pretty much nothing that can be done about it right now except gripe a little and pay our "fair" share. We can add up the score later.
Phase II...credit card write-offs
Edited to add that gold is holding nicely, resting as they might say.
<< <i>This should be the kicker. Hummmm...surely that's what some of the bank bail out is for as this would have been predicted by the paper boys and already be written into the forward assessments. So, if the cardholder defaults and the bank has to eat it but they get stimulus to cover the losses then those of us that are actually paying for the taxes for the bail out are actually bailing out our non paying neighbor with our federal taxes...kind of like paying their mortgage so this must be phase II of spreading the wealth around a little.
On the other hand, there is no way we are going to get past this economic resturcturing until it has been dealt with so let's just move on, stay loose, and let things sort themselves out however they may. Besides, there is pretty much nothing that can be done about it right now except gripe a little and pay our "fair" share. We can add up the score later.
Phase II...credit card write-offs
Edited to add that gold is holding nicely, resting as they might say. >>
Credit card debt is only about $1 trillion. We can "fix" that, no problem. Been there, done that.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
Credit card debt is only about $1 trillion. We can "fix" that, no problem. Been there, done that.
Hm, maybe I should stop paying my credit card!!
Alrighty then FREE BOATS lets round them up!
Hey these could be water front homeless shelters?
By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: March 31, 2009
MOUNT PLEASANT, S.C. — Boat owners are abandoning ship.
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
The bad economy is creating a flotilla of forsaken boats. While there is no national census of abandoned boats, officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.
Marina and maritime officials around the country say they believe, however, that most of the abandoned vessels cluttering their waters are fully paid for. They are expensive-to-maintain toys that have lost their appeal.
The owners cannot sell them, because the secondhand market is overwhelmed. They cannot afford to spend hundreds of dollars a month mooring and maintaining them. And they do not have the thousands of dollars required to properly dispose of them.
When Brian A. Lewis of Seattle tried to sell his boat, Jubilee, no one would pay his asking price of $28,500. Mr. Lewis told the police that maintaining the boat caused “extreme anxiety,” which led him to him drill a two-inch hole in Jubilee’s hull last March.
In South Carolina, four government investigators started canvassing the state’s waterways in January. They quickly identified 150 likely derelicts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Article links the recent low visibility news that the ECB sold 35.5 tons of gold this week as part of their long term selling agreement. What was also interesting was the Deutsche Bank delivered 850,000 ounces of gold on 3/31 to cover the April Comex contract. Question was, did DB who was shorting 8,500 contracts actually have it to give, or did the ECB come to their aid to prevent the Comex from looking bad if they couldn't drum up the ounces?
Interesting day at the G20 summit where the word is that $1 TRILL more in money will be tossed at the current problems. At the same time FASB announces relaxation of marked to market accounting rules...whatever "orderly" means. Just coincidentally during all this chaos the dollar falls 2.5% and oil and commodities rise....except for gold and silver of course which got pounded again. Gold in particular took the biggest licking today. Looks like "risk aversion" is out again but that may change with the next gust of wind.
roadrunner
-------
... either that or your taxes!
Charles Bowsher, Chairman of the FHLBS Office of Finance since April 2007 decided to resign rather than sign off on the audit of the 12 banks he supervises. He does not agree with the way many of the MBS's are valued, esp in light of the relaxing of the M2M accounting rules. Better to leave rather than sign off on something you don't believe in. Bowsher was Comptroller General back in the early 1990's. He commented in 1994 that the derivatives dealers and that market in general needed more oversight to ensure that players were financially sound. He had that one right as well. The FHLBS oversees a total of $1.2 TRILLION.
roadrunner
<< <i>Bloomberg on resignation of Chairman of Federal Home Loan Bank System Office of Finance
Charles Bowsher, Chairman of the FHLBS Office of Finance since April 2007 decided to resign rather than sign off on the audit of the 12 banks he supervises. He does not agree with the way many of the MBS's are valued, esp in light of the relaxing of the M2M accounting rules. Better to leave rather than sign off on something you don't believe in. Bowsher was Comptroller General back in the early 1990's. He commented in 1994 that the derivatives dealers and that market in general needed more oversight to ensure that players were financially sound. He had that one right as well. The FHLBS oversees a total of $1.2 TRILLION.
roadrunner >>
am i understanding this correctly he was alright with signing off on it
for the last several years but only when the crap hits the fan he decides
he does not want to?
Or better yet he did not understand all these years what he was signing
off on and only when the crap hit the fan did he pay attention? After
all the profits were nice and allowed him not to have to pay attention?
I am skeptical of this whole thing about portraying him as an honest
man. More like a rat scurrying from the sinking ship.
If he started his job in April 2007, then the only full year that he's been in charge of the FHLBS was 2008 - and that's the year that he's not willing to sign off on the audit. He saw a problem and won't agree to the valuation that resulted from the recent change in accounting rules.
Same thing as with mark to market. They want to relax the rules so that the worthless crap will stay on the books forever, which is also a very dishonest approach.
I don't understand your cynicism towards a guy who hasn't done anything except to stand up and object to more financial shenanigans.
I knew it would happen.
On a lighter tone, recent AIG auditing is starting to show that AIG's off shore accounts were possibly a tax evasion haven for many of its bigger clients and corporations (esp Real Estate) throughout most of the roaring 1990's. When regulators are away, the cats will play.
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
totally correct he was only at the post since Apr 2007. I take back
my comments. I thought he was there for years.
Thank you for correcting me.
<< <i>"I still find it amazing how quickly the world economy came to a virtual standstill."
Yes, a very interesting phenomenon. The system was wound so tightly in an effort to wring every last cent out of an already maxed out US consumer and using that income as a way to pump up asset fund paper values well beyond any credible justification. The main problem was people were projecting strong growth at the top while the assuming the health of the prey propulation was stable and prospering...at least, that's what it looked like on paper. We here had noticed the disconnect a while back, well before anyone put it in the media but you can be sure folk that were working the deals must have had questions about the sustainability of the model but they plowed ahead anyway with their paper derivatives based on the continued spending and increasing indebetness of the mullets as the managers collected their bonuses and vacationed in Costa Rica; life was good for the paper boys, life was good for the mullets, it was all good.
They assumed the mullets could handle the toxic mortgages that were slipped to them, like someone slipping a date rap e drug in their drink while the hapless consumees listen to the live music of their own success. The model was flawed and people knew this but they kept piping the sunshine into the living rooms of the new middle class. They blew sunshine into the credit cards also, upping the limits so everyone could spend more while slipping in some 29.9% interest rates and other corporate friendly onerous small print terms...hoping to boost the corporate projected income on paper but they knew, they were just hanging paper; no way the consumers could handle the load. New car, new house, new stuff, cash in hand...same ol' job with the same lame pay and benefits; how could it possibly work? But, methinks what turned the worm is the $4 gas. Once a little pressure was put on the US consumer, the game was up; he couldn't pay in cash. Then the ARM resets started and then the house of cards began to cave and the rest is in the history books. The whole thing didn't take 90 days and spread across the globe like a tsunami of cash destruction. The US consumer was shouldering the world aided by the paper boys spreading their joy like confetti falling from a pinata and everyone in the world was lapping at the pool happiness and prosperity.
Those that realized that the model was unsustainable kept stashing cash, slashing personal debt, hoarding metal and hard assets...we talked about it here, we took comfort in the strategy and the recognition, we preached it to those that would listen but it was already too late to turn the herd. But, no one is laughing just because they saw it coming, everyone got cut a little...a quick flick of a butterfly knife as the blade bumps along the rib cage. "There is no joy in Mudville-the mighty Casey has struck out." >>
Exactly.
This sums up the mess and this thread pretty well.
But more importantly this is probably pretty close to how history will view this debacle.
I think, though, that history is going to be very hard on the regulators and on ignoring the warnings of 1987 and LTCM.
From our point in time it's difficult to see many possible scenarios where this comes out well in the near term for anyone except those who have had their fingers in the cookie jar and those who are supposed to be watching them.
Link to BIS semi-annual report. This is the currency page. What is of interest are the gold, non-gold PM's, and commodities information. We already know that the total size of the otc derivatives is $683 TRILLION of which the large majority are interest rate contracts. But the size of the commodity sector is pretty impressive, actually dwarfing what is seen on the Comex.
These are the notional values. Note that they also list the gross value (net) at approx 3% of the notional. It remains to be seen if such a number means anything when the counter party can't pay up.
Commodities (non PM's) - $12.5 TRILLION
Gold - $649 BILLION
Non-gold PM's - $190 BILLION (mostly silver, some Plat, Pall, Rhod.).
The gold derivatives are roughly equivalent to 19,000 tons of gold or about 60% of what the CB's claim to still own. This would also be equivalent to about 1/8th of the world's historical total mined gold and about 6X the average annual world demand. This is also about 6X the size of the max Comex shorts that the top couple of banks carry. So obviously they can do more damage under the totally unregulated otc derivatives. And at 35 to 1 leverage, why not, no one is watching.
The size of the silver derivatives are simply amazing considering the current gold to silver ratio is 71 to 1. Yet their difference is only 3.4X. Why in the heck would there be such a need for a net position so huge? This would be equivalent to a current price of silver at $255/oz or gold at $41/oz depending on which way you look at it. Considering that the annual usage of silver is around $1-$2 BILL per year, the derivatives give over a 100 yr annual supply! Note also that the amount of silver derivatives more than doubled over the past 2 years ($84 Bill to $190 Bill). Does anyone think these were placed by the miners for hedging? (lol). The net Palladium and Platinum markets are far smaller than silver so it is a safe bet to assume that most of the "non-gold" derivative contracts are for silver. Plat and Pall are industrial metals and most of the hedging is done by the manufacturers and miners. The analysis above was taken from Jason Hommel. I've read other sources who have made the same estimate with silver undoubtedly being the lion's share of the non-gold number. The base derivative's numbers are all from Uncle Sam - 100% accurate.
If I was forced to bet on either massive manipulation of PM's or minimal to no manipulation, I'd have to go with massive. I don't see how the numbers at Comex and BIS say anything different. It still comes down to what is more beneficial to the bankers and currency managment? You have to have a strong leash on anything that can alter the perceived value of the currency.
roadrunner
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Quote from the article:
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
"We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century.
In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it.
I knew it would happen.
me thinks short term gold down (at least the ETF stuff)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>New World Currency Initiative from the G20
Quote from the article:
A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order.
"We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century.
In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it. >>
Nice find RG. I was thinking how a new world currency could come into play. That has been bantered about here for some time. When I heard the news of a Trillion ($) stimulus for the world at the G-20, I thought in what currency? Is the US taxpayer on the hook? Then I thought what if the IMF created their own currency. I didn't know that it was already on the books. There you have it...a new world currency...SDR. I'm sure the SDR will be named something more colorful down the road like the "globero." If this is truly the intent then there will be a slow destruction of all currencies.
Comrade Renski
Katz on prices and unemployment during the past 200 years
I like Katz's simpler view of the Great Depression as it is not typically in line with what most economists spout. He has mentioned anecdotally that one of the reasons for the FED pulling back liquidity in 1920 as well as 1930-1932 was to reduce the price of a 10c cigar back to it's original price of 5c. The FED succeeded on the cigar pricing, but at the expense of causing/worsening 2 recessions.
http://www.gold.org/assets/file/pub_archive/pdf/Rs23.pdf">World gold history from the 1850's.
A link to gold's historical role from 1850 to the present. I found it interesting that during WW1 the gold standard was "in limbo" without it being closely followed. During that time the US money supply was doubled and then had to be contracted in 1920, causing a recession in 1921. Most everyone concludes that gold was a fixed and adhered to standard from the 1800's on. Yet it wasn't until 1900 that the US first got fully on board. One might say that a strict gold standard may have only existed from 1900-1913. After 1913 it was altered in many ways over the years until it's demise in 1971.
To those that criticize gold as a failure during panics of yesteryear, remember that gold as money, was only as good as the integrity of the bankers and regulators adherence to the standards. It's no different with today's bankers and how well they have adhered to generally acceptable/unacceptable financial principles. The existence of a gold standard plays no role in the performance in how well standards are adhered to. Had a gold standard been in effect during the era of otc derivatives it would have had no effect in stemming them since they exist outside the world of any regulation.
roadrunner
All these Globalists and foolish bureaucrats can talk about, and play with, their little SDR’S and world currencies all they like but in the end this is a big waste of time. No matter how the socialists like the idea they have simply not thought this through.
In order to have a balanced world currency one must also have lots of regulations that determine just how many "globeros" each country would be able to have and how much DEBT each country would be allowed.
If we told the IMF the U.S.A needs access to 75 Trillion "globeros" because we spent all the Social Security and Medicare money for our people, the Chicoms, the Arabs, and many others would have to say,” no way comrade.”
If the U.S.A. had to pay for its "globeros" in un-inflated cash or hard goods it would never have enough to pay its obligations.
In terms of per capita debt we are not a 3rd world country we are a 5th world country.
Kirby lists some OCC data that I wasn't familiar with, that is some of the credit derivative's positions held by major corporations. These companies all have credit derivative positions at least $4 BILL greater than their total market value. A number of these are in the $14-$40 BILL range. The average leveraged value for those companies in the red is 22X to 1. The names are quite recognizable:
Time Warner, Aetna, Alcoa, Autozone, Sprint Nextel, Ford, Toll Brothers, CBS, Whirlpool, Ford, GMAC, etc. Clearly, the outcome of the derivative bets would be crucial in knowing how a company will perform in the future. Are most of these companies future TARP or TALF recipients?
AIG has been able to lower it's CDS exposure from $2.6 TRILLION to $1.6 TRILLION. The flip side of that is that the 6 major US banks still carry $15.8 TRILL in CDS exposure. JPM alone has $8.39 TRILLION. The US has about 1/3 of the world's exposure. Since the CDS reached their peak in 2008, total CDS exposure is now only about 90% of what it once was.
Gordy's golden garage sale and Humpty Dumpty Fiat - Rob Kirby
roadrunner
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yep, there was a news article last week about how the US couldn't qualify to be in the EU because of the lack of capitalization aka the national debt. A peculiar assessment in light of the fact that we spend trillions for insurance companies, banks, programs of this and that nature...another unworkable model. Members of the EU Hey, you mean Slovenia and Lithuania are more qualified to be in the EU than US?
<< <i>"In terms of per capita debt we are not a 3rd world country we are a 5th world country."
Yep, there was a news article last week about how the US couldn't qualify to be in the EU because of the lack of capitalization aka the national debt. A peculiar assessment in light of the fact that we spend trillions for insurance companies, banks, programs of this and that nature...another unworkable model. Members of the EU Hey, you mean Slovenia and Lithuania are more qualified to be in the EU than US? >>
---
I wonder if BHO's intent during his European Apology Tour is to enter the US into the EU someday....because it's are only hope. Give up our rights, religion, property and Constitution for debt forgiveness.
(
Comrade Renski
PS: Don't confuse the "globero" with the "globeso" which will be the interim currency.
UPDATE 1-US to delay bank test results for earnings-source
<< <i>It looks like the stress test went real well....................
UPDATE 1-US to delay bank test results for earnings-source >>
So how many people privy to this information do you think are using it to make what should be considered insider trades?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>It looks like the stress test went real well....................
UPDATE 1-US to delay bank test results for earnings-source >>
So how many people privy to this information do you think are using it to make what should be considered insider trades?
Reading between the lines it looks to me that if these results were released during earnings-season we'd see another Jan-Mar decline in the market.
Manage the information and you can manage the herd. It's unfortunate that a byproduct of hiding critical financial information like stress test results, tarp fund distributions, etc, results in us mullets having our stock funds and our bank money at risk with institutions that are known by the administration to be insolvent. But, it is fun listening to the admin reps telling us why we don't need to know this stuff anyway. Why would they do that? Hummmm...how much do you think those globeros are going to sell for?
On a happier note, the Comex silver supplies have been drawn down from 80 MILL to 63 MILL ounces of silver since December. Of particular interest is the delivery of 2 MILL ounces each of the past 5 trading days. Someone seems to be in a big hurry to pick up some silver. Another few weeks of that and the silver ETF SLV will hold more silver than the Comex. 6 weeks of this and it will be emptied. As I mentioned earlier, why do the top couple of banks need $190 BILLION in silver derivatives to cover $756 MILL in Comex silver value using the above inventory number? This is a ratio of 251 to 1. Can you say massive overkill?
roadrunner
Big Jumps in Taxes Loom in 10 States
At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A little town Pico Rivera(66,000) in Los Angeles county thought they'd be clever a few years ago and raise a little money by increasing sales tax. Little did they think that would become so popular with the county and the state and now their sales tax rate is 11%. Wonder how that is working out for them?
Generally speaking...........THE TOTAL effect of UNEMPLOYMENT in a lot of areas in SoCal ...............if you measure a) total out of work, b) total underemployed and c) those that have involuntarily or voluntarily just plain given up-------------is close to 20% .
I see a lot of slow business's and nobody hiring. People just aren't spending.
__________________________________________________________________________
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All the more reason to tax them more on what they do make and spend.
In my state of NY we are facing a $16 billion deficit, so what did the legislators do? Increase spending by $6 billion!!. What is wrong with these people? I have a gut wrenching feeling this is all going to end very badly.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The tax man cometh!!!
Big Jumps in Taxes Loom in 10 States
At least 10 states are considering some kind of major increase in sales or income taxes: Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. California and New York lawmakers already have agreed on multibillion-dollar tax increases that went into effect earlier this year >>
With the sole exception of Arizona the 10 States are all "blue" states - Illinois, New Jersey, California and New York are deep, dark blue.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Fed sees no economic recovery until next year
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
stress tests
I have made a sign for my 3 year old grand Daughter that says.
"I am 3 and I owe $100,000"
I think I will carry one that says,
" No Taxation without term limits"
<< <i>It seems almost certain we will see efforts to impose a national sales tax, over and above the income tax, as a means of funding national health care. >>
Agree 100%.
The dreaded VAT or "value" added tax. I ask my friends in Europe and Canada what the "value" added is, and no one can give me an answer.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
...barely
In reading an article today it was made quite clear that "scrap" gold is now the biggest gold miner in the world, by a mile. We could see 1500-2000 tons per year not too far down the road if prices escalate. The continuing movement of scrap gold to the market can change dynamics immensely.
roadrunner