cohodk, she is going to have to take 5% I believe at this point in time....She does not need the distribution to live on...I am going to put that money into another instrument to keep her estate growing....The Fixed Annuity I am speaking of is 10% bonus on signing and 3.25 guarateed which is or can be an indexed annuity. I also like your ladder CD approach...with increasing interest rates and the variable maturity dates of the CD's sounds better than the Annuity...due to the time frame on Fixed Annuites...also there is no given guarantee on the indexed portion of the annuity, so the worst that can be done is a 3.25 interest rate...With CD's you know what to expect and mature at different rates! Thank You.
Will Ladies and Gentlemen you can color me gone as far as the mining stocks are concerned. I wish all of you still holding these babies the very best, in fact I hope you all make a small fortune, and I turn out to be the one that is wrong. Fortunately most of my holdings in this area are in physical metals and I will be keeping that. I just could not stand the Miners, and the speculators, playing the options markets any longer. For my taste this area of investment is just another volatile market where games are played, and I am happy to be out.
i spent the day fishing in the beautiful weather we are having today. I received a few calls from the bullion dealers and it appears they are very anxious to sell to me today. gold is not doing well today and they are in a panic. not only are they trying to pawn off the gold but silver too. let see what tomorrow brings. CS
dlimb2......... glad to help.....please PM if you want to discuss further
goldsaint.......sorry the miners didnt work for you. They will still offer more bang for your buck than the metal itself. They usually move at 3x the move in the underlying metal. You should have been out of this group about 10% ago, when the XAU broke its uptrend.
Gold got hammered for over $5 today. This should come as no surprise as I have posted graphs on the XAU in recent weeks showing the breakdown in the mining stocks. Todays move places gold under its 200 day moving average, and depending on how I draw a trendline the uptend has been broken also.
The dollar looks to be breaking out. It closed at its highest level since last October and above the 200 day moving average. The dollar WILL continue to go higher and gold WILL continue lower. Currently the dollar index is around 85, it should continue up to the 95 level. Not a huge move but substantial. The only caveat is that the Chinese do not revalue. If they do this would cause further weakness in the dollar.
Until the trade deficit is mostly eliminated the direction of the dollar will trend down. It's the better trade numbers which is causing a rally in a continuing bear market.
I just had to "copy and paste" this one. It's really incredible what's been going on here in S Fla. So much so that my wife and I are very serious about getting OUT of here. It's becoming more and more "california-like". G-note a square ft for some of these condos in Miami. Unreal.
Ahh well Tom
Vultures smell drop in hot Florida condo market By Jim Loney Thu May 12,10:38 AM ET
MIAMI (Reuters) - The vultures are circling the construction cranes and unfinished concrete-and-glass towers of Miami's white-hot condo craze.
A handful of real estate entrepreneurs are forming "vulture capital" funds to pounce on what they call an inevitable downturn in an exploding south Florida real estate market fueled by foreign buyers searching for safe havens and aging baby boomers looking to downsize and move closer to the coast.
Analysts have long predicted a slowdown in the blazing U.S. real estate market, where stock investors scorched by the Internet bubble of 2000 poured money into rental properties and second homes.
Owners in New York, Washington and California cities have seen double-digit annual growth in property values for years. Nowhere is the champagne fizz of the real estate mania more evident than Miami.
In the city of Miami, more than 60,000 high-rise condo units are in some stage of planning or construction, officials say. The city has fewer than 400,000 people, a fraction of greater Miami's 2.3 million population.
Jack McCabe, chief executive of McCabe Research and Consulting of Deerfield Beach, Florida, said he has formed an "opportunity fund" that is nearly "eight figures" to take advantage of a swoon he sees coming next year as a result of a bulge in the south Florida condo pipeline.
"We're seeing people taking equity loans, people emptying their savings accounts. The really giddy are maxing out their credit cards to get in on this gold rush," he said. "We think a lot of people are not going to be able to close."
The median price of an existing U.S. home climbed from $156,000 to $185,000 from 2002 to 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. The price of a greater Miami home shot from $190,000 to $277,000 in the same period.
Price rises in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach were even higher, and Florida cities like Bradenton, Melbourne and Sarasota were red-hot as well. Buyers who failed to act quickly tell tales of desired properties rising $10,000 or $20,000 from month to month.
FLOOD OF MONEY
A flood of money from Latin America and Europe has financed 30- and 40-story tower projects in Miami's Brickell banking district, downtown's Biscayne Boulevard and on flashy South Beach, as developers sell urban lifestyle and boomers seek water view homes.
"We're getting, easily, between Latin America and Europe, easily 40 to 50 percent of our buyers in this downtown area," said Pedro Martin, chief executive of developer Terra Group.
Miami's condo boom has shown notable signs of excess. When the bayside Mirador rental building was converted to condos last fall, buyers pitched tents in its driveway for days to have a shot at a unit.
In South Beach, the beach/hip-hop/model mecca, developers throw wine-and-hors d'oeuvres parties to open sales offices with the aim of creating buzz for frothy unbuilt projects where $600,000 apartments will sit next to noisy roadway overpasses.
Last week, developer Leon Cohen revealed plans for the Empire World Towers, a 110-story downtown condo project that would be the world's tallest residential building, if it gets off the ground.
"I believe many of them won't get built," said David Dabby, president of Coral Gables-based Dabby Group and a longtime observer of the Miami market. "If all those projects go forward it seems pretty clear that there will be an oversupply."
Local real estate analysts say 80 percent of the units in some projects are bought by speculators. About 48,000 new condos are scheduled to hit the south Florida market -- Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, by 2007, McCabe says.
He believes a market downturn beginning next year will leave some speculators unable to close, buyers in bankruptcy or foreclosure and developers out of business. That's when the vulture capitalists will swoop.
"Some of the greatest fortunes were made in down markets," he said. "A down market sorts out the really savvy from the naive. The savvy will understand what opportunities are out there and the naive will suffer the consequences."
The vultures may flock too early, Dabby said, recalling that the south Florida market took about six years to recover from a condo bubble in the early 1980s.
"That's a fool's game right now," he said.
But with an estimated 1,000 new residents moving to Florida every day and land available for development running dry, particularly in south Florida, some analysts say any downturn will be less a crash than a period of flat or moderately lower prices.
"South Florida will always be an excellent real estate market in the long term," McCabe said. "We have a scarcity of land and we have constant population growth."
(Additional reporting by Michael Christie in Miami)
The interest (whutcha git every 6 months) is fixed...FIXED ....for 30 years.
In the last year or two the govt stopped paying on 30 yr Treasuries taken out in 1979. Basically they were saying they could no longer continue to pay out such a high rate of interest (9% or so). Why should we trust them with other sorts of bonds?
TIPs certainly have some problems as they are not fully adjusted for inflation. Why should the govt give you all that they are supposed to get? That would be stupid. Hence indexing tied to the CPI is a great govt game.
Goldsaint, by getting out of the miners you played directly into the hand of the commericals. Then again, that's why they make the money and the rest of us give it away to them. I can understand your disgust as the entire PM markets are heavily manipulated, more so the miners. But we're almost to the point where stocks and bonds are manipulated in the same degree. Other than the price of fertilizer I don't see any "clean" markets. I have about $10,000 of my 401K at work in the miners and bought them when they were cheap. I'm in those for the long term so while the gyrations are annoying, I can still sleep at night.
Currently the dollar index is around 85, it should continue up to the 95 level. Not a huge move but substantial. The only caveat is that the Chinese do not revalue. If they do this would cause further weakness in the dollar.
I don't foresee the dollar getting that strong with all the current problems. And I disagree that gold's long term trend is broken. You'd have to go to $350-375 to break it down. For what it's worth I'll bet you 1 MS65 Saint that the dollar index does not reach 93 for the rest of this year. There are too many problems for the dollar to have that strong a recovery. It is still in a long term down trend and even at 86 it hasn't broken above that. The "great" trade numbers were bagged and tagged by fixing aircraft sales to India that have not yet been built. Once again, govt stats at work. Take those future sales out and you have not so rosy trade numbers.
Our family has a condo in Sarasota. We were considering selling it in 2001 but decided to hold. That area is growing rapidly. John Ringling (of the circus fame) made a huge fortune in real estate in that area in the 1920's....and lost it all by the end of the 1920's after the speculation ended. A shame. The home he built in the 1920's is a state park and it's a wonderful tour if you ever happen to visit NGC!
Hi, Dave...I appreciate your help...and I am looking for the security of what my father worked for all of his life...It is a difficult thing to do...as his death was unexpected...and my mother is just out of it...but this task has to be taken care of...and I am trying to do the best by her that I can.
RoadRunner, regarding "In the last year or two the govt stopped paying on 30 yr Treasuries taken out in 1979", I don't think this is correct. Certain older treasury bonds are callable (by their original terms), and on certain classes of bonds (such as some US savings bonds), interest stops accruing after a certain period.
But, what you are describing would constitute a default, and this has definitely not happened!
<< <i>The interest (whutcha git every 6 months) is fixed...FIXED ....for 30 years.
In the last year or two the govt stopped paying on 30 yr Treasuries taken out in 1979. Basically they were saying they could no longer continue to pay out such a high rate of interest (9% or so). Why should we trust them with other sorts of bonds?
roadrunner >>
Roadrunner,
Really? When? Certainly we haven't seen this on CNN!
Why are you interested in protecting all of your mothers principal. If she is 76 then she has at most 25 years left and you might look taking distributions in an increasing scale over that time period.
I don't know her exact numbers but she shouldn't need to make sacrifices at her age to make sure she doesn't touch the principal, that is what it is there for.
Determine how much she needs each year over the next 10 years and plan the distrbution accordingly. If half the money is gone and she is still alive then you can readjust.
Does anyone know if this is the longest thread to appear on the coin forum? If it isn't it sure has the potential to become the lonest thread.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Personally I have no idea if it is the longest, but in hindsight this does appear to have been a good idea. It gives those of us interested in not only coins, but other related investments that would certainly effect our collecting ability, a place to put our thoughts. In addition it keeps down the numbers of posts related to gold, silver and other metals that might take up lots of space on the regular forum. I am very grateful to our host PCGS for allowing this thread to continue even though many posts might certainly be considered OT. Terry
coynclecter, she is not making sacrafices...her SS covers her nicely...but the monies I speak of are in IRA accounts at the present which are just distributing her funds...I am looking for a way in which these funds can be placed to grow the estate...she has more than enough to live life very nicely, money wise, that is when she stops crying, but I don't know if she ever will!!!
topstuf, I have been doing some research and have found what I would like to do...but I have two sisters that have to agree and there is a lot of splannen to do...to get them to understand the reasoning behind my choice...which I hope will be theirs...
Yes, the distribution is manditory now...but I have found out through fixed annuities that if you invest a set amount for a set period of time...when that set period of time is over you still have what you started with or more...even with the distributions being taken out...now how is that for a deal!
Ok....here's the link. And there is also an interior link the bureau of public debt which states that the interest rate of 9-1/8% was too high to pay to 2009 so they were calling in all the remaining bonds. Was going to save the govt $544 Million....but renege of the promise to those individuals (mostly private) bondholders. Of course the govt would "borrow" the $4-5 Billion needed to buy these bonds back. May 15, 2004 was the deadline date...from then on....no more interest grandma and grandpa...suckers! Now if there was some fine print in these bond contracts that allowed the govt to call them in early then please enlighten. Regardless, it still amounts to paying a smaller interest rate than advertised and backing out of a "promise."
But I would object to the term "reneg". These bonds were originally issued with a call feature allowing them to be called any time within 5 years of maturity. The government legitimately exercised a call feature included in the original terms of the bond.
Higashiyama, did you actually look up the details on those bonds to verify the 5 yr early recall? I searched all over the internet trying to find a history on those bonds and found nothing. Regardless, it seems like a cheap trick. How often does the govt do that? And we know when interest rates are far lower than the bonds in question they don't call them early to allow you to seek a better interest rate elsewhere! For a piddly $544 million (6 hours of borrowing on a normal Treasury day) they looked like jackazzes. Do brokerages or the govt spell out in bold letters that this clause is in there?
How about if all stocks had a clause that if you were making too much money on them they could be recalled by the company with you left holding the proverbial empty bag?
Topstuf, you mean a death benefit! Yes that is a very good question to ask...Two of my fathers were...give me the fixed from an Insurance comapany anyday, insurance brokers can not play with indexes but your broker can play all he likes with variables!
Insurance Fixed annuites are guaranteed for a fixed amount upon one's death...stock brokers are for an amount they want to guarantee them for...made money on the Insurance fixed annuity death benefit and lost on the stockbrocker variable annuity death benefit.
<< <i>Higashiyama, did you actually look up the details on those bonds to verify the 5 yr early recall? I searched all over the internet trying to find a history on those bonds and found nothing. Regardless, it seems like a cheap trick. How often does the govt do that? And we know when interest rates are far lower than the bonds in question they don't call them early to allow you to seek a better interest rate elsewhere! For a piddly $544 million (6 hours of borrowing on a normal Treasury day) they looked like jackazzes. Do brokerages or the govt spell out in bold letters that this clause is in there?
How about if all stocks had a clause that if you were making too much money on them they could be recalled by the company with you left holding the proverbial empty bag?
Any way you call it, that's con job 101.
roadrunner >>
Being a former broker I frequently sold these bonds to my clients. The callable feature is evident and is required to be disclosed by the broker. And it isnt even a "clause", it is in the "description" of the bond, spelled out in big letters on the confirmation.
At a time when everybody rants about fiscal irresponsibility, this case is the rebuttal. If you took a mortgage at 15% and now rates are at 6% wouldnt you want to refinance? Of course you would. Thats what the govt did. Now before you feel sorry for grandma, remember that she bought that bond at a time of high interest rates and has been enjoying above market yields for most of those 25 years.
30 Treasury bonds may be redeemed at 25 years at the option of the government. This has always been the case, and is written in the bond agreement. In fact, the Treasury has been calling ALL of these bonds since interest rates in the 1970's is much higher than can be refinanced at current rates. This article does show the type of irresponsible hype however that will discredit proponents of a balanced budget and make them look like wackos. Here's a link from the redemption of 1975 long bonds. There is nothing underhanded or sneaky or illegal about the government choosing to refinance the debt under the terms of the bond. It's not a con job, it's a simple contract that a 10 year old can understand. In fact it helps reduce the burden of the debt on taxpayers.
Of course this savings is irrelevant because the current administration is determined to drive us into bankruptcy no matter what.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Ok. So this is not a con job. But I don't see the comparison to a Refi where the mortgage company is making a few thousand or more on the deal. Tell me how the owner of the 30 yr bond is getting paid a "refi fee" to give it up early. They aren't. What should happen is the govt should pay a fee to call the bond early.
So while Grandma made 9% a year (and inflation ate up 50% of her gains from 1980-2005) for 20 years, she got the option to put that money back to work for 3% for the final 5 years. Paying taxes on inflationary "gains" of 50% is truly one of the better con jobs.
The real con job is spending 200 billion a year playing around in Iraq. Unless this stops, we're going to be bled just like the USSR was bled to bankruptcy in Afghanistan.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>Ok. So this is not a con job. But I don't see the comparison to a Refi where the mortgage company is making a few thousand or more on the deal. Tell me how the owner of the 30 yr bond is getting paid a "refi fee" to give it up early. They aren't. What should happen is the govt should pay a fee to call the bond early.
So while Grandma made 9% a year (and inflation ate up 50% of her gains from 1980-2005) for 20 years, she got the option to put that money back to work for 3% for the final 5 years. Paying taxes on inflationary "gains" of 50% is truly one of the better con jobs.
roadrunner >>
Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
dlimb2: CD's are permitted and encouraged in IRA's. Where did you ever hear otherwise????
You need to be careful about your Mom's IRA. If you do TOO WELL with it and do not distribute the monies out it quickly enough and pay the tax as she ages each year when she passes away, the remainder balance will be distributed to her heirs and unless there are a lot of them sharing such proceeds the tax liability result could be devastating as once you inherit the IRA's you MUST report the IRA monies received ALL in ONE YEAR (possibly split it in two years if you time it right) with NO ABILITY TO ROLL IT OVER INTO A NEW IRA. This is only a concern if the IRA accounts are large enough and if the heirs tax bracket is higher than Mom;s tax bracket.
Example: Mom earns $20,000 a year incluidng $8,000 IRA distribution annually with lots of medical expenses reducing her taxable income to close to zero ends up paying little or no annual income (FED or State) tax on her IRA. She suddenly dies leaving $200,000 traditional (not Roth IRA) to her two kids. Her two kids suddenly must report $100,000 each in additional income as a IRA distribution with no ability to roll it over permanently and will have to pay an enormous income tax, all in one shot.
<< <i>Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
>>
I think you meant it the other way around. US government bonds are exempt from State taxes and are taxable only at the Federal level.
Now if you meant Municipal bond interest then your statement would make sense but only if the municipal bonds are from another state outside your resident state. Municipal bonds issued from your home state plus PR, VI, DC are tax free from Federal and state income tax, although they may cause your social security income to become "taxable."
oreville, This Insurance company I an thinking of going with will let this go back to 3 generations...so my kids can also participate on this when I die...as each distribution is made you pay the taxes on that distribution...upon my death my kids will inherit my portion and it will continue through their lifetime....it will just roll over to them....it is a great vehicle...it guaratees your heirs an income...or they can cash out and pay the whole taxes...
If the distribution you take is not needed as income...taxes have been payed so you just turn around buy another policy that is not taxed upon distribution...and keep growing.....each one compounding...but if you do not anuitize at some point the kids could get hit hard with taxes...so it is imparitive that one take distributions....
oreville, she will never have medical insurance problems...all her bills will be payed...my father has taken good care of her and us...and we are missing him greatly...
<< <i>Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
>>
I think you meant it the other way around. US government bonds are exempt from State taxes and are taxable only at the Federal level.
Now if you meant Municipal bond interest then your statement would make sense but only if the municipal bonds are from another state outside your resident state. Municipal bonds issued from your home state plus PR, VI, DC are tax free from Federal and state income tax, although they may cause your social security income to become "taxable." >>
Oreville,
You are exactly correct. That will teach me to post late at night
Well I just got back from the Trust Planners and Estate Planners...they say Annuities are not the way to go with an IRA....SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooo!!!!
dlimb--you are single handedly keeping this thread to the top.
By the way Steeter...you live in California...why do you like the BEARS!!!! HUMMM inquiring minds really want to know! I played linebacker for the CAL Golden Bears eons ago. Also, rugby. So now you know why some of my posts are FOS. Got my head banged up a little too much.
Streeter, are you one of those little devils! No, I am not. I own a manufacturing CO. in SoCal. I have a couple of friends that have done quite well for themselves selling "investments" to little old ladies. And unbelievable as it may seem ---have managed to keep themselves out of jail while doing it--much to my suprise.
Your mom is 70? And you are going to put her into an annuity?
Well she is 78, but I just found out it would be a wrong move...so I guess I will not...I am going to have to look down other avenues now...but what ever is best, that is what I will do.
I don't know how much money you are playing with but "investment managers" for individuals would be my last choice when looking for information on what to do with my money.
IMHO, for a 76 yr. mom you need to think yield, preservation, liquidity. Go to some investment internet chat rooms and do not sign anything until your attorney looks it over. In fact just save yourself the lawyers fees and DO NOT SIGN ANYTHING.
ANNUITY= too much skim and levels of cost built in. Aren't annuities mostly front end loaded? IMO it's like buying coins on HSN. Good luck.
Comments
YTD Return*: -12.59%
Newcrest Mining Ltd N/A 5.97 N/A
Impala Platinum Hldgs Ltd N/A 5.47 N/A
GLAMIS GOLD LMT GLG 5.32 -19.93
Goldman Sachs ([Wts/Rts]) N/A 5.23 N/A
BARRICK GOLD CP ABX 5.05 -7.84
FREEPORT MCMORAN B FCX 4.96 -6.95
NEWMONT MIN CP (HLDG NEM 4.92 -14.31
AGNICO EAGLE MINES AEM 4.51 -4.16
Anglo American Platinum N/A 4.43 N/A
PLACER DOME PDG 4.32 -28.96
goldsaint.......sorry the miners didnt work for you. They will still offer more bang for your buck than the metal itself. They usually move at 3x the move in the underlying metal. You should have been out of this group about 10% ago, when the XAU broke its uptrend.
Gold got hammered for over $5 today. This should come as no surprise as I have posted graphs on the XAU in recent weeks showing the breakdown in the mining stocks. Todays move places gold under its 200 day moving average, and depending on how I draw a trendline the uptend has been broken also.
The dollar looks to be breaking out. It closed at its highest level since last October and above the 200 day moving average. The dollar WILL continue to go higher and gold WILL continue lower. Currently the dollar index is around 85, it should continue up to the 95 level. Not a huge move but substantial. The only caveat is that the Chinese do not revalue. If they do this would cause further weakness in the dollar.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
better trade numbers which is causing a rally in a continuing bear market.
Ahh well
Tom
Vultures smell drop in hot Florida condo market By Jim Loney
Thu May 12,10:38 AM ET
MIAMI (Reuters) - The vultures are circling the construction cranes and unfinished concrete-and-glass towers of Miami's white-hot condo craze.
A handful of real estate entrepreneurs are forming "vulture capital" funds to pounce on what they call an inevitable downturn in an exploding south Florida real estate market fueled by foreign buyers searching for safe havens and aging baby boomers looking to downsize and move closer to the coast.
Analysts have long predicted a slowdown in the blazing U.S. real estate market, where stock investors scorched by the Internet bubble of 2000 poured money into rental properties and second homes.
Owners in New York, Washington and California cities have seen double-digit annual growth in property values for years. Nowhere is the champagne fizz of the real estate mania more evident than Miami.
In the city of Miami, more than 60,000 high-rise condo units are in some stage of planning or construction, officials say. The city has fewer than 400,000 people, a fraction of greater Miami's 2.3 million population.
Jack McCabe, chief executive of McCabe Research and Consulting of Deerfield Beach, Florida, said he has formed an "opportunity fund" that is nearly "eight figures" to take advantage of a swoon he sees coming next year as a result of a bulge in the south Florida condo pipeline.
"We're seeing people taking equity loans, people emptying their savings accounts. The really giddy are maxing out their credit cards to get in on this gold rush," he said. "We think a lot of people are not going to be able to close."
The median price of an existing U.S. home climbed from $156,000 to $185,000 from 2002 to 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. The price of a greater Miami home shot from $190,000 to $277,000 in the same period.
Price rises in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach were even higher, and Florida cities like Bradenton, Melbourne and Sarasota were red-hot as well. Buyers who failed to act quickly tell tales of desired properties rising $10,000 or $20,000 from month to month.
FLOOD OF MONEY
A flood of money from Latin America and Europe has financed 30- and 40-story tower projects in Miami's Brickell banking district, downtown's Biscayne Boulevard and on flashy South Beach, as developers sell urban lifestyle and boomers seek water view homes.
"We're getting, easily, between Latin America and Europe, easily 40 to 50 percent of our buyers in this downtown area," said Pedro Martin, chief executive of developer Terra Group.
Miami's condo boom has shown notable signs of excess. When the bayside Mirador rental building was converted to condos last fall, buyers pitched tents in its driveway for days to have a shot at a unit.
In South Beach, the beach/hip-hop/model mecca, developers throw wine-and-hors d'oeuvres parties to open sales offices with the aim of creating buzz for frothy unbuilt projects where $600,000 apartments will sit next to noisy roadway overpasses.
Last week, developer Leon Cohen revealed plans for the Empire World Towers, a 110-story downtown condo project that would be the world's tallest residential building, if it gets off the ground.
"I believe many of them won't get built," said David Dabby, president of Coral Gables-based Dabby Group and a longtime observer of the Miami market. "If all those projects go forward it seems pretty clear that there will be an oversupply."
Local real estate analysts say 80 percent of the units in some projects are bought by speculators. About 48,000 new condos are scheduled to hit the south Florida market -- Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, by 2007, McCabe says.
He believes a market downturn beginning next year will leave some speculators unable to close, buyers in bankruptcy or foreclosure and developers out of business. That's when the vulture capitalists will swoop.
"Some of the greatest fortunes were made in down markets," he said. "A down market sorts out the really savvy from the naive. The savvy will understand what opportunities are out there and the naive will suffer the consequences."
The vultures may flock too early, Dabby said, recalling that the south Florida market took about six years to recover from a condo bubble in the early 1980s.
"That's a fool's game right now," he said.
But with an estimated 1,000 new residents moving to Florida every day and land available for development running dry, particularly in south Florida, some analysts say any downturn will be less a crash than a period of flat or moderately lower prices.
"South Florida will always be an excellent real estate market in the long term," McCabe said. "We have a scarcity of land and we have constant population growth."
(Additional reporting by Michael Christie in Miami)
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
In the last year or two the govt stopped paying on 30 yr Treasuries taken out in 1979. Basically they were saying they could no longer continue to pay out such a high rate of interest (9% or so). Why should we trust them with other sorts of bonds?
TIPs certainly have some problems as they are not fully adjusted for inflation. Why should the govt give you all that they are supposed to get? That would be stupid. Hence indexing tied to the CPI is a great govt game.
Goldsaint, by getting out of the miners you played directly into the hand of the commericals. Then again, that's why they make the money and the rest of us give it away to them. I can understand your disgust as the entire PM markets are heavily manipulated, more so the miners. But we're almost to the point where stocks and bonds are manipulated in the same degree. Other than the price of
fertilizer I don't see any "clean" markets. I have about $10,000 of my 401K at work in the miners and bought them when they were cheap. I'm in those for the long term so while the gyrations are annoying, I can still sleep at night.
Currently the dollar index is around 85, it should continue up to the 95 level. Not a huge move but substantial. The only caveat is that the Chinese do not revalue. If they do this would cause further weakness in the dollar.
I don't foresee the dollar getting that strong with all the current problems. And I disagree that gold's long term trend is broken. You'd have to go to $350-375 to break it down. For what it's worth I'll bet you 1 MS65 Saint that the dollar index does not reach 93 for the rest of this year. There are too many problems for the dollar to have that strong a recovery. It is still in a long term down trend and even at 86 it hasn't broken above that. The "great" trade numbers were bagged and tagged by fixing aircraft sales to India that have not yet been built. Once again, govt stats at work. Take those future sales out and you have not so rosy trade numbers.
Our family has a condo in Sarasota. We were considering selling it in 2001 but decided to hold. That area is growing rapidly. John Ringling (of the circus fame) made a huge fortune in real estate in that area in the 1920's....and lost it all by the end of the 1920's after the speculation ended. A shame. The home he built in the 1920's is a state park and it's a wonderful tour if you ever happen to visit NGC!
roadrunner
But, what you are describing would constitute a default, and this has definitely not happened!
<< <i>The interest (whutcha git every 6 months) is fixed...FIXED ....for 30 years.
In the last year or two the govt stopped paying on 30 yr Treasuries taken out in 1979. Basically they were saying they could no longer continue to pay out such a high rate of interest (9% or so). Why should we trust them with other sorts of bonds?
roadrunner >>
Roadrunner,
Really? When? Certainly we haven't seen this on CNN!
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Why are you interested in protecting all of your mothers principal. If she is 76 then she has at most 25 years left and you might look taking distributions in an increasing scale over that time period.
I don't know her exact numbers but she shouldn't need to make sacrifices at her age to make sure she doesn't touch the principal, that is what it is there for.
Determine how much she needs each year over the next 10 years and plan the distrbution accordingly. If half the money is gone and she is still alive then you can readjust.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Personally I have no idea if it is the longest, but in hindsight this does appear to have been a good idea. It gives those of us interested in not only coins, but other related investments that would certainly effect our collecting ability, a place to put our thoughts. In addition it keeps down the numbers of posts related to gold, silver and other metals that might take up lots of space on the regular forum. I am very grateful to our host PCGS for allowing this thread to continue even though many posts might certainly be considered OT.
Terry
It is the longest non-flame thread. The Poe58 thread was over 1000.
I think.
Isn't there a point in time when IRA DISTRIBUTIONS ARE Mandatory? or their income is no longer tax deferred?
I have several friends that did quite well selling them.
renegging on 1979 30 yr treasury bonds at 9-1/8%
roadrunner
But I would object to the term "reneg". These bonds were originally issued with a call feature allowing them to be called any time within 5 years of maturity. The government legitimately exercised a call feature included in the original terms of the bond.
How about if all stocks had a clause that if you were making too much money on them they could be recalled by the company with you left holding the proverbial empty bag?
Any way you call it, that's con job 101.
roadrunner
<< <i>Higashiyama, did you actually look up the details on those bonds to verify the 5 yr early recall? I searched all over the internet trying to find a history on those bonds and found nothing. Regardless, it seems like a cheap trick. How often does the govt do that? And we know when interest rates are far lower than the bonds in question they don't call them early to allow you to seek a better interest rate elsewhere! For a piddly $544 million (6 hours of borrowing on a normal Treasury day) they looked like jackazzes. Do brokerages or the govt spell out in bold letters that this clause is in there?
How about if all stocks had a clause that if you were making too much money on them they could be recalled by the company with you left holding the proverbial empty bag?
Any way you call it, that's con job 101.
roadrunner >>
Being a former broker I frequently sold these bonds to my clients. The callable feature is evident and is required to be disclosed by the broker. And it isnt even a "clause", it is in the "description" of the bond, spelled out in big letters on the confirmation.
At a time when everybody rants about fiscal irresponsibility, this case is the rebuttal. If you took a mortgage at 15% and now rates are at 6% wouldnt you want to refinance? Of course you would. Thats what the govt did. Now before you feel sorry for grandma, remember that she bought that bond at a time of high interest rates and has been enjoying above market yields for most of those 25 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Of course this savings is irrelevant because the current administration is determined to drive us into bankruptcy no matter what.
So while Grandma made 9% a year (and inflation ate up 50% of her gains from 1980-2005) for 20 years, she got the option to put that money back to work for 3% for the final 5 years. Paying taxes on inflationary "gains" of 50% is truly one of the better con jobs.
roadrunner
<< <i>Ok. So this is not a con job. But I don't see the comparison to a Refi where the mortgage company is making a few thousand or more on the deal. Tell me how the owner of the 30 yr bond is getting paid a "refi fee" to give it up early. They aren't. What should happen is the govt should pay a fee to call the bond early.
So while Grandma made 9% a year (and inflation ate up 50% of her gains from 1980-2005) for 20 years, she got the option to put that money back to work for 3% for the final 5 years. Paying taxes on inflationary "gains" of 50% is truly one of the better con jobs.
roadrunner >>
Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You need to be careful about your Mom's IRA. If you do TOO WELL with it and do not distribute the monies out it quickly enough and pay the tax as she ages each year when she passes away, the remainder balance will be distributed to her heirs and unless there are a lot of them sharing such proceeds the tax liability result could be devastating as once you inherit the IRA's you MUST report the IRA monies received ALL in ONE YEAR (possibly split it in two years if you time it right) with NO ABILITY TO ROLL IT OVER INTO A NEW IRA. This is only a concern if the IRA accounts are large enough and if the heirs tax bracket is higher than Mom;s tax bracket.
Example: Mom earns $20,000 a year incluidng $8,000 IRA distribution annually with lots of medical expenses reducing her taxable income to close to zero ends up paying little or no annual income (FED or State) tax on her IRA. She suddenly dies leaving $200,000 traditional (not Roth IRA) to her two kids. Her two kids suddenly must report $100,000 each in additional income as a IRA distribution with no ability to roll it over permanently and will have to pay an enormous income tax, all in one shot.
There are very, very few exceptions to this rule!
<< <i>Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
>>
I think you meant it the other way around. US government bonds are exempt from State taxes and are taxable only at the Federal level.
Now if you meant Municipal bond interest then your statement would make sense but only if the municipal bonds are from another state outside your resident state. Municipal bonds issued from your home state plus PR, VI, DC are tax free from Federal and state income tax, although they may cause your social security income to become "taxable."
<< <i>cohodk: You said:
<< <i>Or perhaps grandma should cry foul since 3 years after she bought the bonds interest rates were 14%!!!
Also interest from govt bonds is exempt from federal taxes. She paid only at the local level.
>>
I think you meant it the other way around. US government bonds are exempt from State taxes and are taxable only at the Federal level.
Now if you meant Municipal bond interest then your statement would make sense but only if the municipal bonds are from another state outside your resident state. Municipal bonds issued from your home state plus PR, VI, DC are tax free from Federal and state income tax, although they may cause your social security income to become "taxable." >>
Oreville,
You are exactly correct. That will teach me to post late at night
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
By the way Steeter...you live in California...why do you like the BEARS!!!! HUMMM inquiring minds really want to know!
I played linebacker for the CAL Golden Bears eons ago. Also, rugby. So now you know why some of my posts are FOS. Got my head banged up a little too much.
Streeter, are you one of those little devils!
No, I am not. I own a manufacturing CO. in SoCal. I have a couple of friends that have done quite well for themselves selling "investments" to little old ladies. And unbelievable as it may seem ---have managed to keep themselves out of jail while doing it--much to my suprise.
Your mom is 70? And you are going to put her into an annuity?
IMHO, for a 76 yr. mom you need to think yield, preservation, liquidity. Go to some investment internet chat rooms and do not sign anything until your attorney looks it over. In fact just save yourself the lawyers fees and DO NOT SIGN ANYTHING.
ANNUITY= too much skim and levels of cost built in. Aren't annuities mostly front end loaded?
IMO it's like buying coins on HSN. Good luck.