PCGS vs NGC on multiple seated coinage submissions

roadrunner

Didn't really intend to do this as a test but the results might be informative to some. Some of these submissions are over 2 years time. This was a group of coins I felt at one time or another could or should be graded higher. Most have made 4 trips to the grading services. It sort of shows that you can be on the wrong side of the curve on most any submission. The services wander a point either a way. You could easily get hammered if you accept the grade as gospel. This sort of supports my theory that in general, PCGS and
NGC are around 50% repeatable on seated submissions.


1856-0 25c purchased at auction in an old green tag PCGS64 holder.
Paid PQ money as the coin is the 3rd finest I've ever seen after the
Gene Edwards 65 and Eliasberg 66. It has more eye appeal than
either coin however. This went in 4 times looking
for a 65 grade as the obv is 65 and reverse solid 64.

In order of resubmissions: NGC64, PCGS64, NGC64, PCGS63!!!!
The current grade is clearly moronic. Would love to be a buyer at 63.
____

1841 50c purchased at auction raw as a solid 63+ coin. The only
dipped coin in this group.

NGC62, NGC63, PCGS63, NGC body bag!, PCGS-63
____

1856-0 50c purchased at auction raw as a 64++ coin.

NGC64, PCGS64, NGC64, PCGS63. Another moronic final grade.
____

1865 50c purchased at auction raw as a PF 65. This was a mistake.
Proofs at auctions can be troublesome with well-hidden wipes.

NGC 64, NGC 64, PCGS 64, NGC 63, PCGS 64.
____

1877-s 50c purchased off ebay in a first gen PCGS64 holder.
A truly solid orig PQ64++ coin that I turned down 40% over bid
from a top "cracker" to send in myself. Thought no brainer 65.
An amazing coin with stone cold 66+ obverse fields except for
a tiny tick next to the date. Rev is 64+. Obv is 65+. Being a
very PL coin, I think PCGS confused those striations with hairlines

Only tried this once and sent it back to PCGS raw: PCGS63!!!
This one will end up in a 65 holder.
___

1893-0 25c purchased off Teletrade years back in a PCGS green
tag 65 holder. Very choice 65+ and colorful. Cannot see why it's
not a 66 compared to most of the swill in current 66 holders.

NGC65, NGC65, PCGS65......for once...consistency!! Amen!!



The moronic grades will go back to what they averaged. That's part of the admission fee to play.

roadrunner

jbsteven

this is one of the main reasons there are "crackout" dealers. On any given day any coin can be a different grade and large swings in prices.

roadrunner

As TDN and others have said here, can't I just pay a double or triple grading fee to have the graders look at the coin carefully for a few minutes and assign the correct grade the first time? Then all the mystery would be removed and we'd have some real support for the assigned grades.

roadrunner

kieferscoins

You are assuming there is a "correct" grade for every coin.

I don't think that is possible for every coin. Some, yes, bit others no.

Cameron Kiefer

RYK

This is 100 times more useful than the typical anecdotes about how the grading services were wrong, inconsistent, etc. Send the same coin to both services over a period of time and see how it turns out. Your results were about what I would have expected, albeit a little disappointing on the lack of upgrades for PQ coins. Is it possible (or even, likely) that you know your series better than the graders?

Barry

It's also the reason why pop reports are totally worthless.

coinlieutenant

Great post roadrunner...it does show that sometimes you need to take more than one bite from the grading apple.

I dont often get into the multiple submissions like you but sometimes I do. Here is my most recent example.

1881 PCGS AU55 Quarter Eagle...paid strong money for the coin from legend and thought it had the look of at least a 58 in which they jump in price. Rare coin...mintage 640 for those that dont follow the series.

PCGS AU55...NGC BB for altered surfaces...NGC BB for artificial toning....PCGS AU58. By that time, I was tired and sold it for what I paid for a net loss...

DHeath

Any three guys on any given day. ALL coins live in an acceptable grade range. It's magic to know what PQ for the grade looks like. Good post.

tradedollarnut

As TDN and others have said here, can't I just pay a double or triple grading fee to have the graders look at the coin carefully for a few minutes and assign the correct grade the first time? Then all the mystery would be removed and we'd have some real support for the assigned grades.

The collector's great equalizer is the set review. Build the best collection you can and when you get to the point that you're thinking of upgrading but your coins look better than many of the upgrades, then fly your set down to Las Vegas and take advantage of sitting down with PCGS and going through your coins with them. Then give them the set to take back to the office to do a full set review.

It's money well spent - just don't lose your collection in the slot machines!

roadrunner

There is a correct grade for every coin. Absolutely! And the test?
Send it in 10 times or even 20. Toss out the highest and lowest grade(s). Average the grades. That's the real grade and value regardless of the holder. If a coin comes back as 63 80% of the time, then that is the grade. Not the 64 or 63 that may occur one in ten times. The services just don't offer such a service in a short time span. They could offer it up as "real grade." And most people, including myself, don't want to spend the 10 grading fees to find out the "real grade." 4 submissions should be all it takes (proof above).

RYK, I won't surmise to know my series better than the graders.
They certainly should know problem areas like AT and altered surfaces better than myself. Mostly all I've looked at for many years is seated material. It potentially makes me more consistent in the grading. I don't have to shift gears and look at moderns, 20th cent. sets, gold, or commems in large quantity to confuse me. But that's what exactly happens at PCGS/NGC. I think they get confused shifting gears all the time. And the expertise that used to exist in the classics has been somewhat eroded to make room for moderns and later 20th century issues. That's where the money lies in grading fees.

roadrunner

keoj

This is one of the best posts that I've seen in some time. Good data!!!!!! I'm actually surprised at the relative consistency between the two services. Well done!!!!!!


keoj

PhillyJoe

Great information. Really shows how subjective grading can be over a period of time, but still within a very narrow range. Hope that these coins received more than a 10 second glance. Do you think the pops come into play in the grading process; meaning if your coin in 63 is 30 and in 64 it's a pop 3, would that put extra pressure on any coin that is going into a 64 holder?

Joe

morgannut2

This is the type of thread that is really useful because it's supported by data. The idea of a set review makes sense too.

roadrunner

Other than the 1856-0 quarter which is pop 1 in MS65 and around pop 10 in MS64 at both services, the other dates don't have any great significance one grade up or down. I'm sure that both services think twice about giving up an MS65 or better to a New Orleans seated quarter. They are far and few between. Out of the 20 or so dates, there are only probably 20 gems in existence....one per date average. If I had to pick one set to build, had the money, and had the access, I'd assemble a choice to gem UNC set of "O" mint seated quarters. After nearly 20 years of slabbing, several of the dates have still yet to show up in top grades.

roadrunner

jdimmick

Roadrunner,

Same here, excellent post and very informative. This further supports that inconsistencies among the grading services can occur on any submissions at any given time. I think this post also indicates that one should become well educated on the grading and specifics of a series in which they choose to collect in order to become a smarter/more educated buyer.

tsacch

thanks for the expensive lesson at your expense. And sometimes I wonder why I no longer submit coins and just buy them already graded..............?

Tom

roadrunner

I made a pact to myself back in 1990 never to buy raw coins at auction again and also no proofs. I just didn't keep it. In the long run it is just not worth the aggravation. Missing just one coin out of 5 is enough to screw you up. And the inconsistency of the services doesn't help any either. The TPG graders are only 80% accurate themselves.

You can find equivalent coins elsewhere and holdered. It's more about getting into the right coin at the right time than it is about price. For every score there is eventually a counteracting hit or hits.
The 2 "moronic" MS63's will end up back in their correct 64 holders. It's just more time and fees tied up. The only coin of the group I'll take a good hit on is the Proof seated half. Buying raw, toned proof coins at auction is pretty risky. Miss one minute thing, and the TPG's will see it when they view the coin free of the vinyl flip. For every proof coin that ends up higher than expected, I'd bet several end up lower.

Buy nice coins in the right holders at the right time for a good price and leave it at that.

roadrunner

MrEureka

There is a correct grade for every coin. Absolutely!

Roadrunner - First, a grade is a subjective opinion. By definition, there can be no such thing as a "correct" grade. (Try explaining to a friend that he's wrong about his girlfriend being a "ten" because the consensus says otherwise.) Second, although your proposed test does give you a grade consistent with the TPG's intended standard, that information is of limited value. Obviously, dealers resubmit worthwhile coins until they achieve the highest reasonably imaginable grade. So in practice, the grading standard observed in the marketplace is (to some highly debatable extent) more consistent with submitters' dreams than it is with the TPG's intended standard.

roadrunner

Mr. Eureka, my comment was directed at determining what the coin is really worth day in and day out to a majority of potential buyers.
While that shifts somewhat, knowing that a coin submitted 10 times,
only achieved the highest grade one time, would indicate the coin is really worth closer to next grade down. While some newbie will probably pay that price and feel they got a bargain, the more seasoned collectors and dealers will avoid the coin. When overall market demand drops, as it will most certainly do in the coming years, such coins will be worth the next grade down and be nearly unsaleable in their upgraded holders.

This is what I really intended to say. The grade should be a basis for value. There will always be liners and tweeners, but a coin that when resubmitted comes back 64,64,64,64,64,63,64,64,64,65.....it's a 64 and worth what a 64 brings. It's not worth 65 nor 63 money to
me. The TPG concensus should have some value in this case. It is purely hypothetical as most submitters have no idea on the overall submission history of said coin. In the case of my 4 or 5 submissions, I do. If a potential buyer is convinced that said coin is worth 65 money to him so be it. Upon resale, should that occur, he or she will discover in the majority of the cases, that it will be a difficult sell at 65 levels, and is actually worth strong 64 money.

I feel it is important to potential sellers as to how the general market
(a TPG concensus if you will as discussed above) perceives the coin.
Not just how they the seller perceive it. And one grading submission is hardly a concensus.

roadrunner

barberlover

Isn't the crackout game a fools game anyway ?

I guess on classic coins everyone justifies playing it for the 1 big score that would justify all the submision money that they flush down the grading service dumper.

For me, third party grading of my best coins is & always has been about authenticity & confirming the minumum grade I believe a coin to be. The nature of human beings is to not be perfect which is why your pq 65 that your hoping to score a 66 with might come back in a 64 holder or a body bag and that is why I don't play the crackout game. For me its enough to know my holdered coin is authentic and that my expectation for the grade is at a minumum the grade on the holder with the eye appeal that made me want the coin in the first place.

Les

MrEureka

Isn't the crackout game a fools game anyway ?

Only when played by a fool.

barberlover

<< <i>Isn't the crackout game a fools game anyway ?

Only when played by a fool. >>



Splain please ? I suppose only fools lose on the crack out game right ?

Les

tradedollarnut

So in practice, the grading standard observed in the marketplace is (to some highly debatable extent) more consistent with submitters' dreams than it is with the TPG's intended standard.

Trime

Roadrunner,
The most consistent finding in your resubmissions report was that despite your long experience and skill in evaluating grade you were unable to upgrade your coins. This aspect of the tale was more telling to me than the inconsistency of grades below your expectations.