How Many Coin Shows Can the Market Take?

RYK

I am no dealer, nor do I have an exact count on the number of national coin shows we have had this past year. If I extrapolate this year's shows and what I anticipate for next year, here is what i come up with:

FUN-1
ANA-2
Baltimore-3
Long Beach-3
Santa Clara-2
Central States-2
NY Invitational-1
Palm Beach-2 (spring and fall)
Las Vegas-2

Throw in a couple Trade-n-Grade shows and whatever else I missed, and we are talking about two big coin shows (on average) each month.

jbsteven

I am pretty sure there is a trade and grade every month between the 2 services. that's alot of shows

roadrunner

It's not the shows themselves that glut the market with coins for periods of time. It's the 1-5 auctions that accompany each show where up to $50 MILL in coins trade hands. A few more shows is no problem, just keep the auction houses under control. The number of national shows is not much different than in previous decades. There may have been more in the past when semi-national shows like Boston's Bay State had more clout.

roadrunner

RYK

It's not the shows themselves that glut the market with coins for periods of time. It's the 1-5 auctions that accompany each show where up to $50 MILL in coins trade hands.

I agree, and I thought about including that point in my initial post. Each major show has between one and five auctions that precede or coincide with the show.

tradedollarnut

Mid Winter ANA....

Agree - it's the auctions that overwhelm the market. But without auctions dealer liquidity would be seriously compromised.

rgwill

I wish we had more shows here. I have a chance to go to maybe three shows a year.

nwcs

As Rockefeller said, just a little more.

cladking

Most of the buyers and sellers at shows will keep the money and coins in the market
or in their collections. There is no outflow of money. This leaves the shows as more
an indication of the health of the market than a drag on the market.

Auctions, on the other hand, have a significant percentage of the proceeds flowing out
of the market. In the very long run it can be a wash, but in the shorter term they do
tend to take money out of the market. They do benefit the market to the degree that
they return coins that have sometimes be off the market for generations. Sometimes
just having the coins available can increase demand in an area.

Longacre

I'm surprised by the lack of shows in the NYC area. The NY Invitational just started last year. There are the Stack's auctions, but no major shows.

SilverDollarMan

Noob question: Does anyone know of a Cincinnati show or nearby?
Thx Alot

DaveG

Longacre:

Many dealers have commented on the high cost of shows in Manhattan. Dr. Arnold Saslow has put on a couple of them, but I don't think they've been successful.

On the other hand, if we (all us NYC-area collectors, that is) go to the WESPNEX shows in White Plains (October, November, January and April) and spend money - then it'll become a major show! (The next WESPNEX show is just after Thanksgiving, by the way.)

Other than that, please come out to New Jersey - to the first Sunday of the month show in Parsippany - the greatest regularly scheduled one-day show in the country and meet the elite of the PCGS boardmembers!

SilverDollarMan: There's one on Nov. 28 in Greenhills - the ad in Coin World says there's going to be 50 tables. To find other shows, I'd check the coin show listings on Coin World's website every week or so.

Conder101

Silverdollarman, the Greenhills show is held every month. There are also two larger shows each year in Sharonville (one around April and One around Sept) that are run by Paul Padgett. They are about 100+ table shows. About every 6 to 7 years EAC has their annual convention in Ft Mitchell.

And the Central States is now down to one show per year. The fall show in Cincinnati this year was their last fall show.

kranky

At this point, are the shows more for the dealers than for the public anyway?

I suspect that at the handful of giant shows and at the very smallest shows, there might be more collector-dealer dollar volume than there is dealer-dealer. At all the other shows, I would guess the dealer-dealer volume is greater.

SilverDollarMan

Thx bro. I appreciate ur reply. R U near Cinti?
Look foward 2 going 2 the shows, thx again.

btw What time of the month is the Greenhills show?

mdwoods

FUN-1
ANA-2
Baltimore-3
Long Beach-3
Santa Clara-2
Central States-2
NY Invitational-1
Palm Beach-2 (spring and fall)
Las Vegas-2

I'd like to make 5 or 6 shows on this list every year. But 3 or 4 is probably what I will settle for.

mgoodm3

<< <i>FUN-1
ANA-2
Baltimore-3
Long Beach-3
Santa Clara-2
Central States-2
NY Invitational-1
Palm Beach-2 (spring and fall)
Las Vegas-2

I'd like to make 5 or 6 shows on this list every year. But 3 or 4 is probably what I will settle for. >>



Hell, I'd settle for one.

RYK

This is an old, stale thread, but with Long Beach, Baltimore, and the Spring ANA occurring within a four week period, it begs to be asked again.

ziggy29

The goose is still laying golden eggs but isn't dead yet...

roadrunner

I don't consider Palm Beach, Las Vegas, Santa Clara as key shows.

Just serve up FUN, ANA (3), Central States, Long Beach (2-3), and Baltimore (2-3), and you have all the big shows you need to attend.
It's basically been this way for at least 20 years.

roadrunner

JrGMan2004

<< <i>This is an old, stale thread, but with Long Beach, Baltimore, and the Spring ANA occurring within a four week period, it begs to be asked again. >>



I talked to about 6 different dealers about Spring ANA and Summer FUN while I was in Baltimore this weekend. No body I talked to said they were going to Summer FUN (which was kind of sad because they were good dealers that I would have liked to see there) and more than a few said they weren't going to Phoenix, or were just going to be walking for a day or two... even heard Laura Sperber joke that she wasn't going to bring any coins because retail traffic always seemed to be very light for shows in Phoenix...

291fifth

The market has gone triple-nuclear! There is no top and no limit to the number of shows this market can support!

Sunnywood

If the auctions are "overwhelming" the market, that tells us where we are in the market cycle. Aside from new modern issues, the supply of rare coins out there is relatively finite. There aren't "more" coins now then there were before. What happens is that in a rising market, the coins get turned over, i.e. flipped, much more frequently for two reasons. First, there is the profit motive; and second, the coins become too expensive for individuals to hold. But the demand side of the market has grown too. So during a rising market, the supply of auction lots increases. Eventually, the cycle peaks, and as soon as the market begins to contract, a glut of supply (people dumping coins) overwhelms a shrinking demand, and you enter a bear market during which the number of auction lots begins to shrink again.

It's not that the auctions or the auction houses are bad, or that they are somehow deliberately producing more auction lots and flooding the market. On the contrary, we're in a hobby with a relatively fixed supply. What happens is that the market cycle itself dictates the ratio of auction lots (supply) to market demand. The ratio increases as the market rises, until it tops out (when supply finally overwhelms demand), and then you have an inflection point (where the market gets flooded with material being dumped), and then goes down (causing the auction lot supply to shrink again).

Conversely, a bottom happens when the auction supply dries up. There was very little to be had in the mid-1990's. Even after Eliasberg, there was little to be had for several years, until the current cycle got going. In a bear market, fewer coins get flipped because prices are falling, and collectors can afford to and want to hold on to their coins. The supply dries up until it hits bottom.

The current glut of auction material is a sign IMHO of being close to a top.

Best,
Sunnywood

fc

<< <i>If the auctions are "overwhelming" the market, that tells us where we are in the market cycle. Aside from new modern issues, the supply of rare coins out there is relatively finite. There aren't "more" coins now then there were before. What happens is that in a rising market, the coins get turned over, i.e. flipped, much more frequently for two reasons. First, there is the profit motive; and second, the coins become too expensive for individuals to hold. But the demand side of the market has grown too. So during a rising market, the supply of auction lots increases. Eventually, the cycle peaks, and as soon as the market begins to contract, a glut of supply (people dumping coins) overwhelms a shrinking demand, and you enter a bear market during which the number of auction lots begins to shrink again.

It's not that the auctions or the auction houses are bad, or that they are somehow deliberately producing more auction lots and flooding the market. On the contrary, we're in a hobby with a relatively fixed supply. What happens is that the market cycle itself dictates the ratio of auction lots (supply) to market demand. The ratio increases as the market rises, until it tops out (when supply finally overwhelms demand), and then you have an inflection point (where the market gets flooded with material being dumped), and then goes down (causing the auction lot supply to shrink again).

Conversely, a bottom happens when the auction supply dries up. There was very little to be had in the mid-1990's. Even after Eliasberg, there was little to be had for several years, until the current cycle got going. In a bear market, fewer coins get flipped because prices are falling, and collectors can afford to and want to hold on to their coins. The supply dries up until it hits bottom.

The current glut of auction material is a sign IMHO of being close to a top.

Best,
Sunnywood >>



The current glut of auction material is a sign IMHO of being close to a top.

but this current "glut" i see when it comes to half eagles is very low
quality coins, problem coins, and a small sprinkling of better coins.
How can one call that a glut when I have a hard time finding a dozen
coins that just say wow!, buy me if you can. Seems to me the auction
houses are filling up with leftovers... not nice PQ rare half eagles.

TwoSides2aCoin

Omaha is the hub. It's a nice city and we have a lot of good restaurants and motels. As long as it was right before or after the College World Series of baseball, which could also ensure a large following. Logistically, it might be a massive undertaking since we're hicks out this way, but I think numismatics would benefit with more host cities of LARGE venues. We even have a Museum that holds Byron Reed's collection (what's left of it, that is ).


The more the merrier, so long as the collector base is strong. I'm a proponent of not having to travel too far. Across town would be cool

ziggy29

<< <i>Omaha is the hub. It's a nice city and we have a lot of good restaurants and motels. As long as it was right before or after the College World Series of baseball, which could also ensure a large following. >>

Could be cool. Either that or right before/after the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.

WTCG

<< <i>Omaha is the hub. It's a nice city and we have a lot of good restaurants and motels. As long as it was right before or after the College World Series of baseball, which could also ensure a large following. Logistically, it might be a massive undertaking since we're hicks out this way, but I think numismatics would benefit with more host cities of LARGE venues. We even have a Museum that holds Byron Reed's collection (what's left of it, that is ).


The more the merrier, so long as the collector base is strong. I'm a proponent of not having to travel too far. Across town would be cool >>



Sure Omaha is geographically central and the people are probably quite friendly, but unfortunately it is a city that's often relegated to being an afterthought even by Midwestern standards. I'd rather travel to a city that boasts a major league baseball team and hotels rather than minor leaguers and a drag strip of low-rise motor lodges.

coingame2000

<< <i>

<< <i>Omaha is the hub. It's a nice city and we have a lot of good restaurants and motels. As long as it was right before or after the College World Series of baseball, which could also ensure a large following. Logistically, it might be a massive undertaking since we're hicks out this way, but I think numismatics would benefit with more host cities of LARGE venues. We even have a Museum that holds Byron Reed's collection (what's left of it, that is ).


The more the merrier, so long as the collector base is strong. I'm a proponent of not having to travel too far. Across town would be cool >>



Sure Omaha is geographically central and the people are probably quite friendly, but unfortunately it is a city that's often relegated to being an afterthought even by Midwestern standards. I'd rather travel to a city that boasts a major league baseball team and hotels rather than minor leaguers and a drag strip of low-rise motor lodges. >>



Wei,

I'll be in Omaha from March 11-18 -- my wife bought me a round trip ticket for my birthday so I could visit my son, daughter-in-law and granddaughter. Personally I like Omaha, lots of good places to eat such as Famous Dave's, Fleming's Prime Steaks & Wine Bar, PF Changs and a host of others. It ain't exactly hicksville...

Mikey

WTCG

<< <i>

<< <i>

<< <i>Omaha is the hub. It's a nice city and we have a lot of good restaurants and motels. As long as it was right before or after the College World Series of baseball, which could also ensure a large following. Logistically, it might be a massive undertaking since we're hicks out this way, but I think numismatics would benefit with more host cities of LARGE venues. We even have a Museum that holds Byron Reed's collection (what's left of it, that is ).


The more the merrier, so long as the collector base is strong. I'm a proponent of not having to travel too far. Across town would be cool >>



Sure Omaha is geographically central and the people are probably quite friendly, but unfortunately it is a city that's often relegated to being an afterthought even by Midwestern standards. I'd rather travel to a city that boasts a major league baseball team and hotels rather than minor leaguers and a drag strip of low-rise motor lodges. >>



Wei,

I'll be in Omaha from March 11-18 -- my wife bought me a round trip ticket for my birthday so I could visit my son, daughter-in-law and granddaughter. Personally I like Omaha, lots of good places to eat such as Famous Dave's, Fleming's Prime Steaks & Wine Bar, PF Changs and a host of others. It ain't exactly hicksville...

Mikey >>



Mike...any place that is home to family, regardless of where that place is is a prime destination to head off to. Okay, the part about the motor lodges is a little exaggerated, but my point is that if geographic location is a factor in city selection then Omaha has a lot of other competitors within a 400 mile radius to contend with.

Coxe

The shows are just fine. It's the auction saturation that is a huge problem. I don't know how the full-time dealers keep it together anymore. You have to spend 2 weeks in the LA metro area 3 times a year just to do do lot viewing, auctions, and table babysitting three times at Long Beach for the four companies that insist on running auctions....not just one each too, but (in the case of Heritage) a slew of sales over the course of a week. Expand that to Orlando, Baltimore, ANA, .... It is a growing infrastructure that is unsustainable. There needs to be a 12-step program for this nonsense. And the fees? F***ing insane. Used to be 10% for real auctions,now 15% for cheezy twice a week internet sales where they make beau coup bucks from buy backs and $8-$9 per lot minima for overgraded problem coins. Goniffs.

Elcontador

Coxe, I can't speak for anyone else, but these days, the only auctions that get my attention are Heritage and to a lesser extent, Stack's. I ignore the rest.

Sunnywood has a good point. As long as people are going to write blank checks, auction lots will become available. I was equally appalled and amused at what some pendejos paid for the three early coppers I saw at the Long Beach Show. One coin had spots and was treated with blue ribbon, another had corrosion, and the third had light pitting and bumped re the grade because of its provenance.

All three coins were slabbed by first world TPGs. but if the average Joe submitted them, it would not have surprised me to see them all bagged.

BECOKA

Heck I have never been to a show outside my local area. There are not too many show's.

Agree with the above that there are too many auctions. I can't keep up with them and am probably missing some items that I would dearly like to have a chance at owning.

BigRed

<< <i>Silverdollarman, the Greenhills show is held every month. There are also two larger shows each year in Sharonville (one around April and One around Sept) that are run by Paul Padgett. They are about 100+ table shows. About every 6 to 7 years EAC has their annual convention in Ft Mitchell.

And the Central States is now down to one show per year. The fall show in Cincinnati this year was their last fall show. >>


Silverdollarman, did you ever make it to the cincinatti show in greenhills, I go there 3 or 4 times a year and for a small show it isn't bad?