Crossover Rate
Max2
Posts: 108
Does anyone have an opinion as to what service has a better chance to crossover to PCGS; NGC or ANACS? Any % guesses?
% NGC pass to PCGS = ?
% ANACS pass to PCGS = ?
Thanks.
% NGC pass to PCGS = ?
% ANACS pass to PCGS = ?
Thanks.
0
Comments
NGC to PCGS -- 40%
ANACS to PCGS -- 30%
SO DONT GET YA FEELING HURT
geez guys...i am reading all these posts...and so far....nobody has properly posted the correct answer...nobody....thus there is a lack of understanding of....HOW THE GAME IS PLAYED
im going to be pretty rough here...but in first year law you learn "once its been said it never goes completely away....so now you have said this
>>>>>>NGC to PCGS -- 40%
ANACS to PCGS -- 30%
>>>>>
it will be hard for the jury to forget...and i dont care if the judge says disregard that last statement...they dont!!!!
unless i go" kruschev "on ya and take my shoe off and start banging the table...so here goes
its pretty easy to have a 100% crossover rate.....how does that sound...
when i pedigreed my morgan set i had 100% of 22 the morgans in my set cross...6 were upgraded...one was a 92-s in ngc 66 to a pcgs 67...that was a 6 figure upgrade...(thankyou pcgs for the money)...why i go pcgs...at the time i was a "founding father" of the registry...i gave pcgs some ideas on how i thought they should scale it...and ngc didnt even have a registry....IN FACT EVERYONE MISSED HOW BIG THE REGISTRY WOULD BECOME
in fact i have an upgrade rate from ngc to pcgs.....several "masters" do...master dave s now owns a pop1 cleveland in ms 68 that he bought in an ngc 66 holder ( go see the heritage search ).....imagine a coin bidding at 600 bucks in an ngc holder now in a pcgs holder at 50,000 .....my god people have lost their mind...the real fact is ...it was in an auction and a few others knew pcgs would upgrade that old ngc coin too...so he had to pay 20 times bid for it...thats 12,000 for a ngc cleveland...but now its in a pcgs 68 holder...the new price 50,000...for the same coin all because of a plastic holder
this year i had a 100% crossover rate from icg to pcgs
and 1 key coin go from a icg 67 to a pcgs 68....a huge huge hit for me...thanks again pcgs
the secret is simple.....START WITH A GREAT COIN and it will cross
what you have admitted to me is that you only start with 40% good ngc coins and 30% good anacs coins
if you want a better % try being a better buyer....be more selective ..be a better grader....youll have to work harder....and youll have to pay more...but the fact is your % is directly related to you!!!...think about that...yep im busting you and if you take it right you improve your %...personally i have noticed when my kids get a 40% on a test at school they shi$ can the evidence.....then they get their butts back into their books
.....they dont post it on the internet...
what everyone one here is missing is simple....and the posts ive read scare me....just flat out scare me....im sure you have all heard the theory of <<<BUY THE COIN NOT THE PLASTIC>>>
well use it..........buy the coin not the plastic!!!!!!
next...understand this is a unique market filled with nuances...learn them...or lose money
next...understand about gradeflation..its a fact
next...understand pcgs`s and ngc`s role in the market place..AND HOW THEY PLAY OFF EACH OTHER...and both ring the cash register
next...understand after this post you will have many dealer comments....listen and learn...they will not bs you ...as its not smart on a public forum...i can hear mark feld now...he is a very good dealer and expert grader and he spends much of his time educating on these boards...and loves to buy ngc coins....and pcgs coins..and anacs coins...and icg coins ....but he buys the plastic
fyi
i have crossed all my monster colored commems to ngc holders...why...because they look better with a white backround...they do...BEAUTIFULL.....am i dumb??i dont think so...if they are power coins they will bring power money....and there are smart people out there who buy the coin not the plastic.....if you only buy pcgs coins....sorry you lose....you will never have a chance to buy them.....personally if i wanted the mona lisa...i dont care whose holder it was in....my goal is simple...buld it and they will come...my goal is to build such a monster colored commem set that i want to fill up a plane.....what???...fill up a plane!!!.thats what i said....when i sell ...a plane load of people will come to buy....when you do that ...you know you have done a great job
another thing to think about...another dealer i like very much is larry whitlow....he is great and has made me a lot of money...in more ways than one...one he has sold me some great coins...HOW ABOUT THE VERY FIRST COMMEM EVER MADE...yep he sold me my col. ellsworth 1892 pr 68 columbian which was the first of all of those to follow...thanks larry and mike...but the other is a little different....he is a very large player in the market and has bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of coins...problem is he is a pcgs clone...he only buys pcgs coins...to me "only" is a dumb as "never"...but what this does is eliminate all his clients from ever having a shot at any other services coins.....AND IT COSTS HIS CLIENTS...but saves me money...this kind of stick your head in the sand attitude is amazing to me......
rermember my 92-s in ngc 66 going to a pcgs 67....hows this sound...i buy it for 60,000 in an auction in a ngc 66 holder ....(a smarter person would of got me out at 70,000)...i cross it to pcgs 67 and the new price is 260,000....hello...larry....listen i got this 92-s in 67 at 260,000 i sending you for your pcgs clone...ok...great just send the check...ok buddy see you later.......sweet hey...but you get the point
*******buy the coin not the plastic....that what the pros do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IN FACT THE TRUTH BE KNOWN...the pros...the really pros...the really really experts...buy many more ngc coins than pcgs coins...and not so "pros" buy more pcgs coins........oh my gawd he said it!!!!now think about that
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
IN FACT THE TRUTH BE KNOWN...the pros...the really pros...the really really experts...buy many more ngc coins than pcgs coins
Well, that's probably true. But they have access to the coins before the majority of the collectors and what do they do with them? A lot of them are tried for crossover and then the price jacked up. The ones that don't cross are what we have access to at the lower price, the ones that do cross are now more expensive.
It's not necessarily that collectors wouldn't buy the coins like the pros do [tho certainly that's some of it], it's that they don't have access like the pros do.
Case in point [tho I don't really categorize myself as a pro] I bought the Share Collection - which was 99% NGC ... the only PCGS coins were ones that he'd bought since his set review. I kept the best and sold the rest. When I went in for my own set review, all but one that I kept crossed. Of the dupes I sold off, only a few crossed.
So monsterman is exactly right that if you are discerning you can up your crossover percentage. And he's probably exactly right that the pros buy more NGC than PCGS. But most of us don't ever get access to the coins that are the reason they buy more NGC than PCGS... those coins are crossed and increased in price before they're available to the general collecting public. The remainder of what's out there in the marketplace tends to be the not quite as nice stuff.
Thank-you for your thoughtful answer. Far from being offended, I fell relieved after reading your post. It's good to hear that coins still are the center of our hobby, not plastic.
you a painful and costly downgrade. Even if you think you know how to grade,
the High Lords of Grading can be a fickle bunch at times.
Camelot
<< <i>Gotta love a monsterman post! >>
Isn't that the truth!!!!!!!!!!!!
I enjoyed the Monsterman post, but there is a flaw in the logic. He didn't mean it this way, but the bottom line is his crossover rate is virtually flawless, so he is a genius, and the rest of us poor slobs don't have a flawless rate, so we are ignorant. Again, that is me talking, not him, but using that as my starting point, the flaw in the logic is this: since we don't know what we are doing, why the heck would we venture into buying NGC slabs? If given the choice, we wouldn't. It is safe for him to do that because he's the genius and knows it will cross. For the rest of us poor dumb slobs, we aren't so sure it will cross, so the prudent think to do for the poor dumb slobs is to discount the purchase price to minimize the risk. So, there may be no risk to MM to cross his set from PCGS to NGC (?!), but he's going to get less money in the marketplace when he goes to sell, in my opinion. Of course the point is moot if he's buried with his boots on in a bed of those fabulous commemoratives.
The question as I see it is why do you only want PCGS slabs? If your goal is to compete in the registry set then yes you are best buying PCGS slabs. If you are trying to collect coins that you like why limit yourself to only one segment of the market. Or are you looking to sell and are trying to maximize your selling price? Monsterman is very correct; buy the coin you like not the slab it's in.
Chris
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
<< <i>understand after this post you will have many dealer comments....listen and learn...they will not bs you >>
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>understand after this post you will have many dealer comments....listen and learn...they will not bs you >>
Russ, NCNE >>
Here is another thought -- we can not assume PCGS always gets it right. They don't.
I submit an NGC coin for crossover, and it fails. I submit the same coin in the same NGC again to PCGS and the second tme it crosses. Based on that one submission, it sounds more accurate to say my success rate is 100%, and the success rate of PCGS is 50%.
Grading is an inexact science, so a 100% cross rate means a perverse sampling.
<< <i>Here is another thought -- we can not assume PCGS always gets it right. They don't. >>
Ain't that the truth. Witness this Two Cent Piece that started as an NGC MS64RB:
Submitted for cross at MS63RB - DNC.
Cracked out and submitted - bodybag, altered surfaces.
Submitted a third time - graded MS65BN, pop 1/0.
Russ, NCNE
100% crosover rate is not hard at all.....and if you disagree ..your not thinking....now warm up that brain and use it!!!
try this one on...buy the book before the coin....increase your knowledge.....look at tdn...he is very knowledgeable...he has paid his dues and knows the market....fact is he has been in the market a long while
1) what is any collectors advantage over every pro???.....TIME
2) is there gradeflation.............THATS A FACT
CONCLUSION:
KNOW COINS...SHARPEN YOUR GRADING SKILLS...KNOW THE MARKET ...AND HAVE TIME IN THE MARKET
if you buy great coins....and if you stay in the market a while all your coins will up grade and or cross
if you think 100% is bs...listen to this....
i have been in this market since `73...so i have learned and adjusted with the ever changing market...and i know how it works
so here is how you get a 100% crossover....and you dont even need to be a great grader...you just need to think!!!
1) go to a real pro upgrader....i use several.....he put his own cash out there on the coins he buys...so if he errors too much he will be back home driving a bus in no time..so if he has been there a while you can bet he is good...because thats what it takes to stay!!
before you go to him find out how the grading has been during the show...if its been tuff....now you know something.....the upgraders wil need money!!!!
near the end of the show the upgraders will have a box of coins that didnt work....go buy some of them....they are the high end coins...
the trick is not to be a great grader...but to be a great finalizer...aka do you agree with the grade...you see the trick is some of these guys will tell you ah it didnt work..wanna buy it....when it did indeed work...now its properly graded and wont up grade...that what you need to know...is it undergraded or not!!!!!!!!!!!simple
now go home...stcik it in your safe for a year and send it in>>>boom instant upgrade
me personally wait 3 years and put in 20 coins at a time
so you see its not hard...collectors have time...upgraders do not
and that is our advantage
****************
as far as the morgans...when jack lee built his morgans 10 years ago there were 2 master upgraders who would comb the floor...the deal was simple...every coin they bought was sold......nice deal for them....always making money...nice deal for jack as he got all of the upgrades which would be all pop 1 coins...jack loved it too...so thats 2 people who loved this deal....me...i was the third player...i bought all the coins that didnt work....3 guys ...all getting what they wanted...and thats a great deal for all!!!!!!!!!
personally i loved my side of it....i built the NFL set....which i have since sold.....wanna know why you never see any NFL coins on the floor?????they have all been upgraded.....and the new owner doesnt want you going back to the auction records and say hey you paid 9,000 for this 91-p .....why is it 50,000 now to me....they rather say i have this ms 66 coin to sell you and its the only 66 there is!!!
so you see 100% cross over rate is no joke...and its not hard...you just have to think about what your advantage is
all the great collectors you hear about ...and all the money they made with their collections.....not one of them was in the market for a few years...not one..
...spend time in the market...buy great coins....know the market...go where the monster coins are.....and YOU WILL RING THE BELL
any questions
monsterman
ps monsterman rule #54...nice coins arent cheap...and cheap coins arent nice
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
I'm curious about these upgrade and crossover wizards. If they are so good, why are they so anonymous. I'd like to work with one. Can you name names, or are the folks you mentioned before the wizards?
i hope by reading my last post you can easily see 100% is not hard
your error is in equating a professional upgraders record to mine....my record better be better than a pro`s record or im a poor numismatist ...remember he does not hold these coins for years and years like we can and do...he is combing the floor and working with last years upgrades...while i am working with last decades upgrades
***************two keys*********
1) buy great coins
2) spend time in the market
3) know the market
and...ding...ding...ding..ring the bell!!!!!!!!!!!
a little ditty for the board
a small coin shop in town has a counter kid now 27...when he was 19 he bought this beautifully toned commem from the shop in a first gen pcgs rattler holder ms 65 for $150....a few months ago he cracked and pcgs 67`ed the coin....and off it went into a registry set for 25,000....
well he is 100% and 150 times his money...btw ...he put a down payment on a house with the $$$
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
NGC 1 for 3 the one was MS61 1923-Merc BB, I broke it out and sent it back and it graded MS63, two cross at lower grade
PCI 3 for 6 higher grade, 1 equal, 1 lower, 1 BB
ANACS 4 for 7 higher, 1 equal, 1 lower. My 1916-D was G6 in ANACS holder, the coin crossed at the grade, I later sent the coin in for a regrade and the real grade came through VG08.
I think you need to look for quality coins and not worry what holder it is in. Like others have said buy the coin - not the holder.
I have learned that breakouts do better than sending coins in their holder. My 1923-S Mercury was in an NGC MS61. It was send back BB. I broke the coin out and it graded MS63. The other example is My 1916-D ANACS G06. It crossed at grade. I sent it back at a later date and the coin then was graded VG08. I seem to do better when I break them out.
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Well MM, I guess when you say 100% cross rate you mean every coin you have wanted to cross has eventually crossed, maybe not on the first try, but eventually, so in the sense that all of your coins eventually crossed, your cross rate is 100%. I think I understand that part of it.>>>>that correct...they all cross and sometimes it takes twice...and once in a while 3 times
I'm curious about these upgrade and crossover wizards. If they are so good, why are they so anonymous.>>>>they are artists to me and know their biz...they are very good and are time concious...the more coins they see...FIRST...the better their chances of finding "fresh ' coins...so they dont socialize in the begining of shows....after all the grading is done they go to the trade and sell their upgrades to dealers who will sell them to the retail....its best to go introduce yourself to them at the end of the show when the pressure is off and there is no more grading...come informed..know your stuff.....they have no time to teach you....( until they know you ..then they will )...dont waist their time...they hate that....after they know you a friendship and a working relationship will develope
I'd like to work with one. Can you name names, or are the folks you mentioned before the wizards? >>>pm me and i will..i dont think it would be appropriate for me to post names
keep in mind here.....you need to buld a relationship with these people...try this....john doe...im gregg bingham...hey listen im a commem collector and if you ever have any give up coins please let me know...give him your card....and leave...the contact has been made...next show go to him again...hey john doe hows it going...remember me...im the commem collector...dont forget about me...at the end of the show try him for his "did not work" coins....next show you see him he will recognize you and say hi to you first...now the relationship is begun....and you can figure the rest out
hope this helps
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
also...come on guys...grading is carteled....thats right controled...come on people...why do you really think the services tighten up....then loosen...come on guys....you dont think they would flood the market and kill the golden goose do you...nothing worse than having a dealer with 50 ms 67 `83 cc morgans coins in the case do you...if so im not buying anymore....if the case is empty the services will fill it........now btw i have been doing the cc thing many years...and of all the 83cc in 67 there are you think if i was so dam good i would of gotten in postion to buy the best...guess thats why i made the first two ms 68 `83-cc coins...its not i was such a great grader...its because i knew the upgraders who were trying to break that ms68 concrete ceiling...when they gave up...I WAS THERE!!!...with a check...ready to pay a large premium and take them out............weeeeeeeeee...no skill just thinking
monsterman
out of rockets ...out of bullets...switching to harsh language
1) Buy the coin; not the plastic - the most improtant point
2) The grading services position themselves for a reason; ANACS has a market for a certain type of coin (type coins in the less than BU catagory); NGC has a market share for their type (better for toning; less technicle, but more market disarablility); PCGS (market for tough grading, therefore more value for same coin).
3) There may be those who have figured out how to use the above to get the best value for each coin they wish to sell.
Those with more experience may wish to comment.
Monsterman: I mised monsterman rule #53. I have the others from #1 to #52. Thanks.
1) Let the service know that you are part of the registry;
2) Submit via a dealer who is well known by the TPG service.
Do you all think that is the way to go?
And the other unbeliveable item about the morgan set was the ICG going from 67 to 68, that will never happen. They see an ICG holder and they think at least 1 point lower no matter how nice the coin is.
<< <i>1) Let the service know that you are part of the registry; >>
How do you let the service know?