Poll: Are high grade certified modern coins a one-way market?
RYK
Posts: 35,797 ✭✭✭✭✭
A spin-off from two other threads, maybe I just don't get it. Are certified modern coins meant to be bought and enjoyed (and there is absolutely nothing wrong with this) with no hope of getting any reasonable fraction of your money back in the future? I am not talking about searching proof sets and mint sets, making them, and then selling them. I am talking about the next step--when the buyer decided he no longer wants the coin and tries to resell it.
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Specializing in 1854 and 1855 large FE patterns
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I heard about this guy once whose dad bought some coins from R&I and he called and he called because he wanted to sell them back but then nobody called him back so he didn't call anymore and when R&I posted here he wanted to say that he called and he called because he wanted to sell them back but then nobody called him back so when they said call him he didn't call and then we took a poll to see if the guy should have called him back - oh wait - originally it was about the black screen and the blue text but I forgot about that part and so he didn't call and they didn't call and nobody called to buy the coins back and then dorkkarl stumbled into the thread but he didn't know it was about the blue text and the guy whose dad bought some coins from R&I and that he called and he called because he wanted to sell them back but then nobody called him back and then he sold them to somebody else and that was what I heard and it was all because of the blue text and the not calling about selling the coins back.
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<< <i>Musical chairs is more like it. When the music stops, the last buyer will still be standing. Let the flames begin! >>
I agree. It might happen on the first sale, or the 3rd, but the last one holding it gets to keep it.
Tom
Chris
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Joe
<< <i>Buy if you want to enjoy, or enjoy and resell. The downside to buying high grade certified coins is that the population might double or triple in the next few months or years. A pop 10 coin today could be a pop 100 coin this time next year. The more modern the coin, the bigger the risk. The circle begins with a rising price, then an increase in the search & submissions, then the decrease in price, which makes everyone stop looking,....... Many, many examples, but a "recent" one is the 1976 silver Kennedy. A $90-$100 coin in PR69 D/C when the pop was 300, now a $25 coin in pop 3000.
Joe >>
To some extent this can be seen most recently in PCGSMS70DCAM Texas Flag Series Quarters. When they firsr hit they were going in the $500 range. As the pop grew, or became more widely known, the price backed off first to about $380, then $320, then.... I picked one up from Teletrade about a month ago for just under $250. I'm talking about the silver proofs.
Jerry
Russ, NCNE
But they are fun to collect.
Heck, I even bought the set of my wifes birthyear.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
-KHayse
<< <i>One way. They're also a trial run for toned coin premiums. >>
I couldn't agree more.
al h.
Look at the Modern Commemoratives you can buy the high mintage gold coins for spot which are less than 1 million made in the high grades and if you buy sets you get the $1 and half thrown in for near free! Most of the 100k can be brought on ebay for $150-$250, everything has it's cycles.....who wanted the quarter or nickel before the redesigns? Now the prices are going up because people don't know if they'll ever be back. JMO
On the high grade scarce stuff it runs in cycles too and its buys limited to those with extra money. The rich start feeling poor and the price drop, but a good time to buy for those with extra cash.
As far as proof franklins are concerned (the only high grade modern I know much about), I don't think it's entirely a one way market- in that if you buy smart and buy from other collectors and then sell to other collectors, you can avoid losing a bunch of money. And I suspect that the populations on the franklins aren't in danger of suddenly exploding.....
Of course, I could be just ignorant.....
My problem though is unevenness in prices. Since these coins are found cheap and raw, sellers sometimes don't mind selling them No Reserve or for discount prices. You'll see a NR coin go for $600 say, and then $180 the next month, and then $500 right after that. I have right now an ms68 1983 Lincoln for example, I've twice seen sell for over $500, but I can't sell mine for that much right now. It doesn't seem fair to take less (esp since I very rarely have such a pop top to sell).
Oh yeah, I have an even bigger problem with grading consistency on moderns. I'm sure some large percentage of the ms67rd Lincoln Memorials would not grade ms67rd if cracked out and sent in today. (I'm 0 for 4 now on buying a graded ms67 and keeping it because I thought the grade was right). And there's usually a 10x price difference from ms66 to ms67!
Reece: Well - I am at least enjoying the #3 spot until you add your next coin.
IMHO - Desireable modern coins will generally always (absent unusual circumstances) be pursued by dealers, while non-desireable coins will be of little interest. Same, by the way, for many classic coins. If a collector calls me with a 1995W Silver Eagle in PCGS-PR69DCAM for sale - I would be extremely interested. I would be interested in (100) pieces at the right price. On the other hand, if he called me with a 1995(s) Roosevelt Dime in PCGS-PR69DCAM for sale or even (1000) of them - I would personally have little interest at just about any price. Although, there might be a telemarketer type that might be interested in them.
Wondercoin
+People collect modern coins.
xSome modern coins are rare in high grade.
=You do the math, but keep in mind that the mint state coins were mostly
face value not too many years ago. And while you're doing the math you should
also remember that coins make a much better hobby than an investment. Mod-
erns are doing well more because they're fun and there was little supply than be-
cause they are a good investment.
buy what you like and like what you buy...but buyer beware... and that applies to more than just moderns
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
That is not especially useful for me.
Wondercoin
<< <i>That is not especially useful for me. >>
RYK, here's another way to read it:
"I brokered the deals and made a fat commission but I'd never take the coins on a principal basis near those levels."
In a round about way I believe it does address the question that was intially posed. Just my personal interpretation.
HUH?
Wondercoin
<< <i>RYK, here's another way to read it:
"I brokered the deals and made a fat commission but I'd never take the coins on a principal basis near those levels." >>
Russ, NCNE
"I brokered the deals and made a fat commission but I'd never take the coins on a principal basis near those levels."
When the recent buyer of the proof Kennedy's sells the coins to you next year for what he/she paid for them, you will have one article of evidence to disprove my point. While we are waiting, wanna buy some PF-68 state quarters?
IMO, One day this market is going to suffer catastrophically, when a lot of folks begin to sell off these types of coins on the open market and expect to get the same insane price's that have been and continue to be paid recently. Maybe, a couple of the top choice coins (best of the best) will stay fairly high due to a few limited buyers that have unlimited resources that never ever plan to sell, nor care to sell. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I think the smartest people by far, are the folks who have searched, found and made the coins and then sold them, and made a small fortune, not the long term buyers on the end of the line who paid insane money to aquire them????
<< <i>A collector selling off a six figure collection of PR70's - not useful to the question of whether moderns are a "one-way market"?
"I brokered the deals and made a fat commission but I'd never take the coins on a principal basis near those levels."
When the recent buyer of the proof Kennedy's sells the coins to you next year for what he/she paid for them, you will have one article of evidence to disprove my point. While we are waiting, wanna buy some PF-68 state quarters? >>
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>I think its a limited market, not necessarily one-way, but very close. The internet has helped the folks that want to buy/ sell these types of coins when they upgrade or decide to part with them, etc. It's a very convienent way to bring those buyers and sellers together. However, if someone were to approach any dealers in this area with that type of material, they would laugh you out of the shop at the prices these things bring in internet auctions, etc. Most dealer's would offer only standard Ms-64/65 money for high grade lincolns, jefferson, kennedy's ikes, etc. If some one brought in a Ms-68 red 1948 Lincoln for instance, they would get offered something like 3.00-5.00, and thats only becuase its holdered.
IMO, One day this market is going to suffer catastrophically, when a lot of folks begin to sell off these types of coins on the open market and expect to get the same insane price's that have been and continue to be paid recently. Maybe, a couple of the top choice coins (best of the best) will stay fairly high due to a few limited buyers that have unlimited resources that never ever plan to sell, nor care to sell. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I think the smartest people by far, are the folks who have searched, found and made the coins and then sold them, and made a small fortune, not the long term buyers on the end of the line who paid insane money to aquire them???? >>
Your assumptions don't seem too far off and your facts seem close, but your conclusions don't really
follow. It is a thin market and most dealers don't have any interest. This seems to mean there is an
awful lot of room for further growth. It appears with all the newbies coming around that this growth
is happening.
Does it really seem plausible to anyone that ultimately there will be fewer collectors than the pops on
all the moderns? Some of the pops of coins that have been getting graded for decades are under 5
coins. Are there really going to be fewer than five collectors interested in these coins? Sure, most col-
lectors are going to be more interested in the undergrades, but if the prices collapse wouldn't some
step up to buy the high grade coins at the new lower prices.
This market is still in its infancy and this will be true so long as there are rare moderns which sell for
very low prices or are only available in circulation. By the time this is no longer true, most dealers
will stock at least some of the moderns. Then a good case can be made that the coins are over-
priced but then the prices are likely to be much higher.
Right now it is still possible to buy rare moderns for small fractions of the price of equally rare older
coins. So long as this is true this market should probably be relatively safe from huge hits.
Obviously too, there are some overpriced coins in a young and volatile market. All collectors should
know what they are buying and this is true of moderns also. The hobby is mostly about enjoyment,
but there is no point in paying more than market or more than where the market should be.
<< <i>Dumb question, but needed to be asked. What's a POP? >>
It's short for population and is usually in reference to the number of coins graded of a specific coin at each grading service.
Yep, IMO straight down.
You've got to be kidding me. It's worse than I thought. Wow. Makes shower cap collecting sound like a good alternative. Anyone have a Motel 6 from the early '80s when they had the white frilly flower on it? I'll trade you a collection of up to date collection of State Quarters in Proof 69 DCAM for just one of them. It's got to be hairline free though.
[And by the way, some of you modern coin folk need to be able to laugh about things a little bit more. Life's too short to not be able to find humor wherever you can - I see the most humor when I think about myself. Besides, in a few hundred years, you'll have the last laugh because your coins will finally be desired by people who will say "Gee, I wish our great-great-great-great-grandfathers (that's you........) would have stuck back a few of those coins celebrating the handicapped olympics in MS 69.875 which are now worth close to a price of a Arby's Roast Beef Sandwich."]
I'll trade my collection of shower caps for free flips. Gotta be PVC free though.
<< <i>a dealer at long beach said the modern market is just a few dealers submitting moderns by the mega thousands in hope of a few money coins..like buying instant lotto tix it seems..why would they want them back?
>>
There are three dealers and four collectors. That is what's driving the prices up.
very good sport. He takes the anti-modern criticism very well and represents this segment of the hobby (and the hobby, in general) admirably. Moderns would be better served if there were more dealers like Cladking.
<< <i>Are high grade certified modern coins a one-way market? >>
maybe so, maybe not. akin to what russ said, i buy coins w/ the intent to keep em anyway, so many coins for me are a "one way market".
K S
Interesting thread... And a lot of votes!
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Musical chairs is more like it. When the music stops, the last buyer will still be standing. Let the flames begin! >>
I've been comparing the modern market to a game of musical chairs for many
years but most people don't know there's a game and can't hear the music.
In the meantime there are there are lots of collectors gathering up all the best
seats. The singing so many of us hear is perhaps a siren song but it's coming
from the huge numbers of raw moderns. Most people who observe the market
pay little attention to the boxes and boxes of coins that are hauled into coin
shops and shipped off to the big wholesalers, but those who have actually look-
ed into those boxes hear the singing quite plainly. We know what's in the boxes
and what isn't. We know that the boxes have been getting smaller and less num-
erous. Those of us who have studied history also know that never before has
this song played for so long. Never before have collectors refused to hear the
call of any coins for generations.
The last notes may be drifting in the air even now. But if not, then it will occur
because that is the nature of man and time itself.
I enjoy collecting them because my kid was born in 97.
If they quadruple in value I wouldn't care.
If I woke up tomorrow and they were only worth face value I wouldn't care either.
The $5 gold JR that I paid $300 for years ago now sells for $1,500-$2k so I guess I have a smug grin on my face.
I'm pretty sure that I could sell most of my 1997 slabs and get pretty much what I paid for them.
2 way street.