GROUND FLOOR OPPORTUNITY........
COINDOG
Posts: 402
Right now there is a window of opportunity for collectors to take advantage of circumstances before most of these coins become too expensive, or not available at any price !!
I remember in 1978, most people were not especially interested in buying gold. in late 1979 it was pushing $ 800.00 per ounce, and EVERYBODY wanted to buy !!!
Most people will not take advantage of this opportunity, they will wait until prices are off the charts, however, here goes :
I Recommend :
High grade ike dollars, full step jeffersons, and full torch roosevelts,
in that order !!
In addition, ALL coins graded pr 70, or ms 70 by pcgs or ngc ONLY !!
Futhermore, SBA dollars, and modern gold.
Lastly, now is a good time to SELL morgans, mercury dimes, and buffalo 5 cent pieces. they are at a all time high, and will eventually fall in price as soon as this " bull market " cools down ( in about 18 months )
most " bull markets" last about 5 years, so selling prices for these coins are great right now !!!
0
Comments
to go up but if you must this is the chance to do it. While your selections are excellent,
MS clad quarters should not be overlooked. There are hundreds of thousands of folders
for these being filled from circulation. Those collecting states quarters are going back
and adding the earlier issues also. As they become increasingly sophisticated growing
numbers of them will want their earlier coins to be as high grade as the later issues.
These coins do not exist in the kind of numbers to supply large markets. It may take more
than just a few years for choice and low grade gems to be fully appreciated but in the
long run many of these should be at far higher levels.
This applies to many of the moderns which have never been collected. Even the cents
are often surprisingly tough to find in nice choice grades and these were saved and col-
lected to some degree.
If you're just talking price appreciation then look at any of the moderns in nice choice unc
or even in very high grade. These latter are a little more speculative since prices are so much
higher, but when the pops are a few dozen one has to think that demand could greatly out-
strip this sort of supply.
This doesn't mean to ignore the many other moderns (or classics) but these seem to be
much more likely to continue to enjoy increasing demand into the foreseeable future. Surely
they'll be good bets at least until most coin shops carry them.
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Pragmaticgoat....I agree on the softening of SOME high-end MS Ikes Dollars. In particular,
the 40% Silver ones. I think the clads have remained strong and even increased.
Gandyjai
Cameron Kiefer
Rare is rare: It's about the coin and not the metal. It's a different thing in my opinion.
about Clad Ikes. I'm no good at proofs either!
Gandyjai
This thread started about what series' of coins were supposedly going higher and what were supposedly going lower...yet it's become a chat about clads. So with that said, I see that the subject has veered away from a broad discussion and I'll take my ball and play elsewhere. And didn;t you mean to say "It's NOT a different thing??"
I like gold better than steel anyway.
Oh, and I will keep all my Mercs as I am a collector, not an investor. What I am going to sell are my U.S. Mint wrapped rolls of quarters. Who knew these would go up so far (percentage wise).
I have nothing against Saints. I think they are beautiful and will undoubtedly go up in the near future.
I even have one....but it turned out to be a fake!
Segoja at a show and he thought it was real too. We walked it over to the ANACS table and he says
it was a fake in less than 2 secs! There are apparently a lot of fake Saints out there and people can
spot them just by "the look" or the way the light bounces off of them. I can't.....so I went to Ikes.
They are much more affordable and hardly any fake ones out there!
Gandyjai
<< <i>Is this ONLY about CLAD COINS? How about coins that are actually made of PRECIOUS metals....?? >>
I agree !! modern gold has nowhere to go but up !!! Saints are great to collect, if you have the finances. i have several examples in high grade, as most collectors collect this coin as a type coin.
It becomes very difficult, and expensive to put together a saint set
in the better grades because most of us who collect saints, collect them as type coins in the highest possible grade. i do not have a set of saints, however, the saints that i own are top pops !! most type collectors collect this way, which creates a problem for the full set collector.
The problem is that the better coins are " tucked" away as type coins !!! This is true for all sets that become too expensive for the average collector to collect as a full set.
They become " short sets", and later as the price increases turn into " type sets', or type coins.
I haven't seen a single fake in a PCGS holder since I started!
<< <i>MORAL OF THE STORY...don't buy raw gold coins.
I haven't seen a single fake in a PCGS holder since I started! >>
Outstanding advice !! Q. David Bowers rule of thumb is to never buy
a coin over $ 100.00 unless it is certified !!
Personally, i go it one better : I never buy a expensive coin unless it's in a pcgs holder. It's not that i can't grade, with pcgs they suffer the loss if there is a problem.
When i buy coins that are certified by other services, i buy them at discount prices, or i don't buy them at all. If they are raw, then the coin is purchased with the understanding that it will be sent to pcgs, with me paying for the grading, then paying the asking price ONLY if pcgs sends it back as at the designated grade.
If the dealer is confident in their grading skills, and if they know the coin is not a problem, they usually accept my offer.
<< <i>Those are bold statements without any discussion as to why you think this. What about GOLD? Do you think that after coming out of a 22 year bear market, that the bull market is near-done?? >>
:
No i do not think that gold is done, quite the opposite !!!
During the vietnam era, we spent 220 billion dollars on the war.
we did not raise taxes to pay for the war. we simply borrowed money, and printed a lot more money. as a consequence of those actions, the dollar lost 80 % of it's buying power beteween 1969 and 1999 ( a article in numismatic news described this situation about 4 years ago )
In 1969 a hamburger was $ .18 cents at mc donalds, a gallon of gasoline was less than $ .30 cents, and a 396 super sport chevelle cost $ 3,800.00 !!
we are spending considerablly more money in iraq and other places, so i would expect gold to hit $ 1,000.00 + per ounce in the next few years.
I am not agreeing, or dis-agreeing with current policies. i am simply stating facts)
<< <i>Is this ONLY about CLAD COINS? How about coins that are actually made of PRECIOUS metals....?? >>
No, not at all !! I would highly recommend modern gold. it has two ways to increase in value. first as collector demand, and secondly as bullion prices go up the coins value increases.
This is a way that the "average " collector can get into the hobby,
afford to collect, and make a profit while doing so. opportunities to buy will always exist for collectors with " deep pockets".
Futhermore, the collector will enjoy the hobby much more if they become a collector first, with a eye toward investment second.
At some point every collection is sold. it's not un-reasonable to expect a profit when we sell. we can do so if we take advantage of ground floor opportunities. the only way to sell high, is to buy low !!
<< <i>It seems like the high grade IKE $ prices have been softening this year, and if You were to stop supporting the prices they would fall even more... >>
You are gight about high grade silver issues of ike dollars declining in price, and this is to be expected. the silver planchets were made of much softer metal, and much better care was taken in their preperation, and striking.
On the other hand, the clad dollars were the most difficult coin that the mint ever produced !! Poor preperation , striking, and handling was the norm for clad ikes. This was especially true at the philadelphia mint !!
The clads will continue to increase in price, as the silver issues decline. What can be expected is fewer, and fewer clads in high grade and more and more silver issues in high grades !!!
Lastly, i buy only the most perfect ikes that i can find, not necessarily the highest numerical designation !!!
<< <i>I suggest that you should collect what you enjoy. Someone always loses in these "opportunities" and it is usually the one who buys int
o them. >>
What it's about is providing an opportunity for the " average " collector to collect a series, and make a profit while doing so. the opportunity will always exist for collectors with "deep pockets"
In addition, it's not unreasonable to make a profit if, and when the collection is sold.
Taking advantage of "ground floor opportunities" is a very good way to do this.
If i collected all the coins that i wanted i would collect 1804 dollars, and 1913 liberty nickels !! however, even if you have the resources, many times the coin is not available at any price!!
<< <i>Can I subscribe to your newsletter?
With many collectors it's sometimes better to have a good laugh, otherwise they would cry !!
It's a known fact that a majority of collectors actually loose money when they sell their collections. ( If you account for inflation, and take the buy and sell spread into consideration )
The coin or collection might be worth millions. However, it's never about worth, but who is willing to pay those millions !!
Look at the recent SS Central America coins. There was a lot of hype and promotion when they were first sold. Now they are selling for thousands less on the secondary market !!
Two years ago the 'hummer " was hot, now they can't give them away !!
With coins it's very simple : a news letter is never necessary !!
Buy the key coins as type coins in any series ( keys are valuable in any grade ) or buy the common coins in the highest grades possible.
Take advantage of ground floor opportunities such as ike dollars in high grades, full step jeffs, and full torch roosevelt dimes.
Only 7 years ago a 1953-S FBL Franklin in ms 65 was selling for $ 1,800.00 it now costs $ 17,000.00 + ( that was a example of a ground floor opportunity )
The collector that pays $ 17,000.00 for this coin does not enjoy the same respect as the collector who wisely bought the same coin when it was $ 1,800.00 !!
<< <i>Those are bold statements without any discussion as to why you think this. What about GOLD? Do you think that after coming out of a 22 year bear market, that the bull market is near-done?? >>
Most "bull" markets in our hobby historically last about 5 years. I think that we have at least 18 more months to go before we see a decline.
Gold on the other hand is just getting started !! In the next 4 years it would not surprise me to see gold hit $ 1,000.00 + per ounce !!!
<< <i>In the next 4 years it would not surprise me to see gold hit $ 1,000.00 + per ounce !!! >>
Cameron Kiefer
Thanks
Tim
<< <i>Why the FT roosevelt dimes?? reason please
Thanks
Tim >>
Collectors gravitate toward coins that are a challenge !!
Full torch roosevelts sure fill the bill in this area !!!
Futhermore, coins that are worth hundreds of dollars can still be found in dealers cases for a few dollars !! Not everyone has " deep pockets ", so the opportunity to accquire a coin worth hundreds of dollars is a tremendous " windfall " for the average collector !!
Lastly, it is much more satisfying to find a coin such as this as opposed to having to pay hundreds of dollars for the same coin.
The level of respect given to the collector who finds his coin is much greater than the individual who pays hundreds for the same coin !!
( Not to mention the savings !! )
What evidence is out there that the high end (I mean top grade) Ikes are softening? I see them getting stronger, and I'll cite TT pricing. Look at what the MS68 Ikes are going for compared to 6 months ago. Look at the recent MS66 clad, they are all up.
I'll also cite some recent E-Bay numebrs on the tough Type II Ikes. MS65's have been selling for over $3000 per coin, and 64's are bringing $450+
I have been and will support this market. If you don;t think so, sell me some Ikes.
I have a long list of orders that I can't fill (Tens of thousands of dollars worth).
If this amrket were getting soft, then I'd be getting much more material.
Like to see your data points
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
how long do you have to hold and who will pay the big money for them??
Tim
<< <i>So if you can get these roosevelt dimes for a few bucks
how long do you have to hold and who will pay the big money for them??
Tim >>
Many,many people will pay those prices ( me for one ) any roosevelt from 1946 to 1964 pcgs in ms 68 . send me a post and i will reply asap.
In addition, registry set collectors, several dealers that specialize in roosevelts. ( however i would like the first shot !)
<< <i>OK...my inference regarding the new bull market in gold is that after a 22 year bear market it would be short-sighted IF anyone thought it was going to be a 2 year bull. Gold should stay in a bull market for a decade or more...with lots of corrections. I don't see $1000 gold unless there is some squeeze or some anomoly, but I have stated in other threads that I would certainly expect $600 in the next 5 years. I'd guess that the high could reach $700 before correcting. >>
It's pretty simple : during the vietnam era we spent 220 billion dollars on the war. we did not raise taxes to pay for those expenditures. what we did was to borrow, and print huge amounts of money. the dollar lost 80 % of it's buying power from 1969 to 1999 ( a article in numismatic news re-stated this exact fact )
We have already spent 135 billion in iraq, and not raised taxes to pay the bill. I am not supporting or opposing a political position, i am simply stating facts.
Futhermore, this is not 1979-1980 where we have the hunt brothers trying to manipulate the market. gold will continue to rise over the next 5 years, regardless of who is in office !!
A perfect example of this is the hyper- inflation that existed in germany after world war 1. Any notgeld collector knows exactly what i am talking about !!
The germans simply printed more, and more money to pay their bills. It eventually took a wheelbarrow of currency to purchase a loaf of bread !!
The logic is simple: no one, individual, company, or government can spend more money than they take in without causing inflation.
If you don't believe this to be true, then go out , charge $ 10,000.00 on your credit card. at the end of the month, don't pay it off, and watch the interest charges accumulate !!
Tim
<<MORAL OF THE STORY...don't buy raw gold coins>>
I agree 100%!! My father had bought this coin (and others) back before they
were slabbing coins. There were a total of 13 of them that turned out to be fakes....Most
of which were $5 Indians and one was a Saint.
Because of this I would NEVER buy a raw gold coin and in fact, have never even bought a
slabbed one!
Gandyjai
<< <i>I recommend raw MS64 State quarters, but what do I know
This sounds like an almost sure winner too. The highest grade issues that can be easily
found whether it's MS-64 or MS-65 are likely far less common than is percieved. Huge numbers
of coins are being set aside but most are MS-63 at best. The cost of finding the low grade gems
and very choice coins are low and carrying costs are nearly insignificant at this time. If you have
storage space and the time to put into it then there is a good chance of at least getting a couple
dollars each for them in the next few years. Higher prices are hardly out of the question.
<< <i>What about pcgs 67fb roosevelt dimes??
Tim >>
Yes !! full band roosevelt dimes ( ms 67- pcgs only ) are hot and expensive !! so are high grade ms state quarters !! again only in pcgs.
I don't want to offend anyone, but ngc is about 1 point "loose",
as far as their grading standards go in these areas. check with cameo cc or any other dealer who specializes in these coins.
a complete set of roosevelt dimes from 1946 to 1964 cost over $ 1,000.00 more in pcgs as opposed to ngc.
The advantage in buying them raw is the low cost per coin, also, you can send them into anyone that you choose for grading !!!
They are a great " ground floor opportunity " for the average collector to accquire a high grade, high value set for " pennies on the dollar "
not everyone has the resources to spend thousands of dollars on a set, so finding them yourself is a great way to do this, and get them at a bargain.
another added benefit : it will improve your grading skills !!!
most of them have gone up about only 50% to 100% in value in the over 20-35 year holding period, a terrible performance whereas a few of them have gone up a minimum of 8500%. This is during the same period that my "investment" in many other things including coins have gone up an minimum of 1200%.
This is why you cannot expect to "invest" in clad coinage.
Collect them? Absolutely. The bonus is you do not know which will be the next star performer of the clads. To try to figure it all out ahead of time is risking terrible performance.
<< <i>I have owned rolls and rolls of BU clad dimes and quarters since the late 1960's.
most of them have gone up about only 50% to 100% in value in the over 20-35 year holding period, a terrible performance whereas a few of them have gone up a minimum of 8500%. This is during the same period that my "investment" in many other things including coins have gone up an minimum of 1200%.
This is why you cannot expect to "invest" in clad coinage.
Collect them? Absolutely. The bonus is you do not know which will be the next star performer of the clads. To try to figure it all out ahead of time is risking terrible performance. >>
Obviously you're right and the numbers are pretty accurate, but I see this from
an entirely different perspective. While I'd again advise against investment in
any coin or collectible let me say why I think the clads have performed so poorly.
Demand for BU clad rolls is exceedingly poor. This is caused by a multitude of fac-
tors from the perception that they are common, to the realization that they are
almost always of very poor quality. Early issues tend to be mushy strikes from
grossly overused dies and later issues tend to be horribly marked and mangled.
There are till very few collectors of the clad coins and most are looking for at least
nice choice coins which can be elusive in the rolls for many dates.
In actuality the supply of these rolls is extremely spotty at best. A few rolls simply
don't appear to exist at all and none are truly common. This leaves the dime and
quarter roll market primarily at the mercy of variety collectors rather than date/ mint
collectors. Variety collectors tend to have no use for their rejects so will spend these
coins after removing the ones of interest. This can be an expensive proposition if
you're paying $20 per roll and a couple dollars shipping and is especially true if you're
finding nothing in the rolls.
The rolls are supremely interesting largely because they are so scarce and the market
is so thin. But the fact remains that gem coins are highly improbable from this source
and there are very few people who are familiar with the varieties on the clad coins.
Because these markets are so thin the reporting of prices is greatly complicated. The
CDN listed the '69 quarter roll for around $100 the last I looked but this is one of the
rolls which is nearly impossible to find. If you make a few calls and know where to start
you might be able to locate one but it's far more likely you'll end up with a roll from mint
sets than an original roll. The point is that this is a roll which rarely trades at all due to
a combination of rarity and lack of demand. How can you accurately price it? You can't
buy it from the CDN and they can't tell you where to get it. You can call the market maker
in Pennsylvania but it's not overly likely he'll have it in stock either and if he does, it's a
safe bet it won't be available anywhere near CDN bid or ask. This tends to be true for
many of the rolls. If you need it then it will cost much more than "market price".
So what are the collectors doing? The few collectors in the market are going through
dealers stock and mint sets trying to find choice and gem coins. They are ordering blind
from a few advertisers who offer these coins raw and they are buying slabbed coins in
the highest grades they feel comfortable with. Guess what? Most of these coins are
coming out of mint sets. They are coming out of mint sets largely because they are the
only coins available. Millions of the mint sets were made and even though most have
been destroyed over the years they remain virtually the sole source for for BU dimes and
quarters. More importantly, choice and gem coins are scarce to rare in the rolls which barely
exist.
Look at the "scarce" and "rare" '82 and '83 rolls. Everyone knew there were no mint sets
for these years and larger numbers of rolls were set aside!!! Yet, the total number of coins
of these dates available is so small that they sell for up to $1000 now. So how many 1981-D
quarter rolls can there be out there? Very few yet CDN probably lists it for about $15. This
works well for most '81-P quarter rolls simply because there won't be any thing in them to
recommend them. I wouldn't want to pay $15 for most '81-D quarter rolls despite their rarity
because they require room to store and '81-D gem can be acquired cheaply with patience.
However, there are some great varieties for this coin which can not be found in mint sets. They
aren't particularly scarce but account for only about 3% of production. This means they also
account for about 3% of the coins in '81-D BU rolls. With so very few rolls saved these coins
are actually quite scarce. And since varieties run in packs it's not too unusual to find five or
six of them in a roll. This isn't bad for a $15 roll with $10 face in quarters in it.
The real increases in mint state clads have been in the choice and unc coins. Even three years
ago you's see these advertised for 50c or a dollar. No more. Nice choice coins are going for
a few dollars each and gems for more. The coins that are slabable are being sent in. The
increases are spectacular for coins that could be purchased for well under a dollar all through
the '80's and '90's.
BU roll prices have increased sharply in the last 24 months in the real world. These will be the
last of the moderns to be fully appreciated but the gains of the winners will be huge. Typical
rolls with no gems or varieties might even do very well if collectors seek to have original rolls
simply because by that time the rolls won't merely be unusual, they will be rare.
One cannot "invest" in clad coinage because that implies picking out certain dates and mm versus others. The problem is the ones "picked" may not be the winners of the future.
Collecting clad coinage implies buying them ALL (whether riolls, mint sets of gem individual pieces) so that you get ALL of the next generation of winners along with the also rans. Buying into clads is best done with the "collecting" mentality rather than the "investing" mentality so that the buyer does not miss out on the winners.
Example: Who in their right mind ever thought the 1983 Phila and Denver souvenir packs would someday rival many other collectibles? A collector would have NEVER missed buying them in 1983. The investor wouldn't have bothered.
You certainly seem to have a great wealth of numismatic knowledge that must have come from many years experience. How old are you and how long have you been a "coindog"? Were you around for the past bull markets??
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
<< <i>I have owned rolls and rolls of BU clad dimes and quarters since the late 1960's.
most of them have gone up about only 50% to 100% in value in the over 20-35 year holding period, a terrible performance whereas a few of them have gone up a minimum of 8500%. This is during the same period that my "investment" in many other things including coins have gone up an minimum of 1200%.
This is why you cannot expect to "invest" in clad coinage.
Collect them? Absolutely. The bonus is you do not know which will be the next star performer of the clads. To try to figure it all out ahead of time is risking terrible performance. >>
Oreville: I really don't disagree with your post in spirit and most all the particulars. Collecting clads
is a great deal of fun and no coin or collectible makes a really good investment because of the many
inherent risks, not the least of which is the fickleness of collectors. This being said, the probability of
large price increases in some clads is just as high or higher than almost any other "investment" one
can find.
For the main part you're right that just rushing out and buying BU rolls may or may not prove rewarding
in the long run. Frankly I expect the time to buy these is either fast approaching or is already here, but
as you've said the gains in these are spotty and will likely remain that way. Mint sets, however, are a
much more convenient way to buy moderns in nice quality condition. Nearly two mint sets out of three
will contain a nice very choice or gem coin. Many sets have multiple gems in them. Storing these sets re-
quires a great deal of room and their low prices make them untenable for many investors but there are
increasing numbers of ways to get around such drawbacks. It is still possible to select only the better
sets and store only them. This requires a lot of time and effort which again makes it too unwieldy for many
but now days it is possible to buy only the finest coins in slabs. No, I'm not suggesting that anyone rush
out and pay "moon money" for any clads offered in pop top or near pop top, but am merely suggesting
that it's now possible to find the gems in slabs and they are often reasonably priced. As always though
these mopdern markets are young and collectors, dealers, and investors are still hashing out which coins
are common and which are scarcer so it's wise to look at some raw coins before putting down your money.
While nice clads still constitute a "ground floor opportunity" where ever you can find them, they still make
a far better collectible than an investment. Indeed any purchase of any collectible for price appreciation
should be considered a speculation rather than an investment. One should consider that he might never
get any money at all back from a speculation whereas an investment will normally at least be expected to
return most of the original capital.
No doubt, there are still many modern series today that are of great interest to me personally. And, I agree - the key is to always try to get in at "ground level".
Wondercoin