Population reports annoy me :(

RYK

Perusing the NGC population reports for branch mint No Motto half eagles demonstrates some absurd data. I was looking to determine how really scarce my 1845-O $5 NGC-58 is. Heck, it's not scarce at all: 100 coins graded, 36 in EF, 24 in AU 50-55, then a huge peak of 29 AU-58 coins, and a total of 6 in the uncirculated grades.

Let's look at another example, the 1846-O $5 in AU-58: 103 coins graded, 39 in EF, 24 in AU 50-55, huge peak of 26 in AU-58, and 5 in Unc. Almost the exactly same story.

Think it's just New Orleans gold (maybe a hoard?), let's look at the 1843-D $5 in AU-58: 149 total coins, 51 in EF, 36 in AU 50-55, peak of 31 in AU-58, and 11 in Unc.

What appears to be occurring is that the AU-58 are getting repeatedly submitted to try to get the 61/62 grade (and the huge price jump that accompanies it), and unfortunately, the tags are not getting sent back. Thist results in data that is useless for me as a collector and creates distortions when I am trying to determine the relative price/value of an AU-58 coin for my collection.

If you think I am mistaken, I would challenge anyone to find 10 unique NGC AU-58 45-O $5's--I would doubt that you would find even that many.

ms70

I have heard on several occasions that the pop totals are inflated by approx 30%. No one to blame but those that don't send the tags in.

BillJones

<< <i>I have heard on several occasions that the pop totals are inflated by approx 30%. No one to blame but those that don't send the tags in. >>



For some issues, like the 1854-D Three dollar gold coin, I think the "inflation rate" is worse than that.

But how do you send in the tags if you are looking for upgrades? The idea is to get the services NOT to put 2 and 2 together. You are looking for more grading points.

Like all condition census and survival date, the population reports have their problems. The biggest problem is that someone has to pay money to get the coins on the list. I like the census work that collectors did years ago in books like Sheldon and the like. They consisted EVERY coin that they could verify, no just the pieces that were submitted for slabbing.

Fairlaneman

Heck do not be annoyed. If a person tells you that your coin "Appears" to have a fairly high Pop just agree and state that it does "Appear" to be that way and give him a wry smile. Certainly you know better even if the other person is in the dark.

We are stuck with what the reports say and know the Pop for certain coins is way way off. Much more than the 30% people always come up with.

Ken

dorkkarl

<< <i>Population reports annoy me >>

not me! i never look at 'em.

K S

Elcontador

They don't annoy me for the reasons mentioned above. I expect to see inflated pops for coins at the level just below a big price jump (ie., 1940s S Mint Walkers in MS 64, any Seated $ in Ms 63 & MS 64, etc). I'll never forget the conversation I overheard about 3 years ago at Long Beach. It went like this, "yeah, he did it. Had to submit his Seated $ in 4 eleven times to get it to 5." I don't think the guy returned the tags, either.

Baley

the clever follow uses these inflated pop reports (along with observations of how many of these coins actually are available in the market) to identify coins which are scarcer in the world than they "appear" in the pops,
and accumulates those coins

someday, there will be a new, better census system, and "common" rare coins will be rare, once again!

smselvek

Here's the solution to not turning in the tags

Instead of tagging the slab...
...why not just engrave the number on the coin.