What's the highest possible MULTIPLE...

MrEureka

...that you could imagine paying for a one point upgrade? Name the coin and the price for each of the two grades.

Assume that you're going to hold the coin for at least ten years, so the relative values between the two grades will need to hold in the long run.

nwcs

Highest multiple I would pay... about 1.5. Pretty much for any series. I'll usually buy the one below the big price jump.

FC57Coins

In Franklins, many times the difference between MS64FBL, MS65FBL, and MS66FBL is huge. Generally MS65FBL's run about 10X of their MS64FBL counterparts and the MS66FBL's run anywhere from 5-7 times the MS65 Price.

BigE

I am not smart enough to respond to this post, I read it twice though----------BigE

Russ

I would pay $30 plus shipping cost to Newport Beach.

Russ, NCNE

topstuf

Hmmm....lessee....widout too much research, let's flip to da Morgan sheet.

The 1886-o MS64 $6500

MS65 $160,000

I'll take that one. And I'll see Russ' $30 and bump it ten bucks.

Twenty if the buyer doesn't disagree with the grade.

MrEureka

Twenty if the buyer doesn't disagree with the grade.

TopStuff - You think that premium will hold for ten years?

Bear

Why do people always tell you to hold for 10 years?

Is it so they have enough time to spend your money

then get out of town?

coinguy89

I don't know about that, depends if I can tell the difference in grade.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Andy

Do you realize WHAT you are saying?

and How people are interepreting what you are saying ?

stewart

LincolnCentMan

Well, in the over $500 coins, I'd have to say about 2-3X. I often have "minimum" grades that I'm willing to accept, though.

In the under $500, I pretty much buy what I want "reguardless" of price. I've bought several 54-P cents in PCGS 66RD in the $400+ range, but wont spend $50 on a 65RD. So I guess in that aspect, about 8X.

David

MrEureka

Do you realize WHAT you are saying?

Yes.

and How people are interepreting what you are saying ?

No. Stewart, please enlighten me.

eyoung429

I think that after reading this that I thought I had an answer for myself but then I thought, ten years won't be long enough for the doctors to help me interpret the cost vs. longevity minus the separtarate grades of the set that I wished to accomplish with the tenure of most admins being less than the original concept of my diagnosis.

Is this still reality or are you a figment of my own imagination?

lloydmincy

Completely unanswerable.

Many coins go 10X to the next grade. Depends on the rarity to the next grade, for starters. If ONE ms65, and 10 64's, could be a huge price difference from 10 64's to TWO 65's. And what do you mean bythe price holding for ten years??? Do you mean the spread from one to another holding! Who's to say what will happen in ten years??? No rhyme or reason will answer this one. I've seen 1933 Eagles at MS 64 go for, in the same year, same grader (NGC) $176,000, $276,000 and $191,000. Used to be 1.5X MS63 in recent years. Those last three sales, do you average??? Can't do it.

I guess a dealer may have a set multiple in his/her head for certain issues, but it's not always going to work!!! Collectors don't think about multiples. I thought I would NEVER pay DOUBLE for something 3 years later. Have done it and then some 10 times this year, and TWO I wish I had paid the 2.5X they went for. (Garrett 1853-O NA half. Still crying...).

MrEureka

See, Stewart! EYoung gets it!

MrEureka

Completely unanswerable.

Lloyd - It's easy enough to answer. I didn't say that time has to prove you right.

lloydmincy

O.K., Andy. I'll try to "get it". I COULDN'T imagine a year ago paying even 3 times the next grade, but have done it. So my answer would be, no more than 3X if a top pop, with only ONE, and less than 4 one point below it. Gee whiz, even that doesnt make much sense. There are just too many variables, and so I don't get it.

eyoung429

Thank you MrEureka~~

The balance of any given coin at any grade is subjected to innumerable outside influences. Take for instance, if a highly desired coin in PL68 values at 10k.....two more are found in 7year spreads. A Hurricane in florida finds the PL68 coin and smashes it against a tree and with a new presidential election has gold tied up with the common citizen not allowed to have it......what would the cost of the 2 existing coins be?

There are circumstances and then there is logic...... If you buy a coin, there is always another one out there or a series of events that would cause the better to fall. It's just a manner of time.

Make the circumstances more rigid on your query and we may be able to answer a little more logically.

100proof1957

1957 Proof 67 Cam Linky at 275.00
1957 Proof 68 Cam Linky at 2200.00

dorkkarl

i could easily envision a 10000x mutliple of a coin like, say a 1959 nickel that is worth 5 cents in ms-66 but $5000 in ms-67. ultramodern pop-top slabbed crap is like that.

disclaimer: example used for illustrative purposes only

K S

tcmitssr

In my area of concentration, classic silver commemoratives, my highest multiple would be 2x ask. Most of the time, however, I am able to get top of the line quality from the best dealers for about 20 to 25 percent above ask. At the last Baltimore show, I did go 2x in an auction for a monster San Diego in PCGS MS66. It was one of those coins that when you see a catalog, of even a digital picture, you would not consider going that high. Yet, the description made it worth the look and once it was in hand, it screamed "buy me". As the auction progressed, many coins were opening for bid and going for that or not much more. I thought I might luck out. However, when this coin started, it opened from the Net (probably had someone at the show look at it) for over 1.5 ask with two Net bidders. At the hammer, I owned it for 2x, including the buyer's premium.

MrEureka

i could easily envision a 10000x mutliple of a coin like, say a 1959 nickel that is worth 5 cents in ms-66 but $5000 in ms-67.

But if those were the values today, I doubt you would (even if you "like the coin") be willing to buy the 67. Especially if you had to hold the 67 for ten years and run the risk that the market will adjust to (what you consider to be) more realistic levels.

RELLA

Dorkkarl,

I think I understand the point of your "illustrative purposes" example, but I can't envision this 10000x multiple that you are dreaming of. Your example is invalid; 1959 5C in MS66 is over a hundred, in MS67 I doubt it would be more than a thousand even to a buyer with more money than brains. With Full Steps a MS66 is $1200-$2000...probably no more than 10x that on the best day in MS67.

I can think of a few POSSIBLE 100x multiples out there in the modern series; but don't try to generalize when you can't even pick a valid example.

RELLA

ziggy29

I don't think I'd ever pay more than about double MS-XX price for an MS-XX+1 coin. If that. And if that meant a low MS grade that is often unattractive (i.e. 60, 61 and some 62s), I'd go the choice AU-58 route.

For circulated coins I might stretch it a bit more if I wanted the extra detail. My '14-D cent is AU-50 and that's nearly twice what an XF-40 sells for. Still I decided I wanted to do that because I loved the coin, it was loaded with eye appeal and because a choice, problem-free '14-D in AU doesn't come available every day (where I can see it, anyway).

I'm a big believer in "best value grade." When I was collecting Morgans I did the same thing. My "target" grade was always the highest grade before the next grade exploded in value. If an MS-63 was $200, MS-64 was $300 and MS-65 was $1000, I'd look for a nice 64, one that might go 65 on a good day, for a little premium over 64 money but still MUCH cheaper than a 65.

dorkkarl

hey rella, the point i'm tryiing to make is a coin w/ a pop-report of, say 937 coins in ms-66, but only a single example in ms-68. i'd think the coins would be worth barely a premium over face in 66 (plus the cost of plastic of course), but huge multiples of that for the lone example in 68.

K S

dragon

<<< TopStuff - You think that premium will hold for ten years? >>>

IMO, the premium(s) will only hold as long as the major 3rd party grading services are around and their numbers on the holders have credibility in the marketplace.

lloydmincy

Dorkkarl:

i dont think your example would work. One would look at all the 66's,a nd shy away paying a high premium for a 68, when so many OTHERS just a bit below are lurking about. That's why I said maybe a FEW just below the top grade, protecting the "investment". Maybe an OLDER doin too, making it less possible other nice ones wold show up.

cladking

<< <i>i could easily envision a 10000x mutliple of a coin like, say a 1959 nickel that is worth 5 cents in ms-66 but $5000 in ms-67. ultramodern pop-top slabbed crap is like that.

disclaimer: example used for illustrative purposes only

K S >>



Certainly we're all well aware that moderns are crap. They are the only "collectible" on the planet to have the unique
property of being more crap-like as they go up in grade. Some day when these high grade coins are as common as the
grains of sand on the beach this will be more widely recognized and the MS-60's will be worth more than the MS-70's.

It's well to use an old coin for an example since the newer ones are even crappier if that's possible.

disclaimer: agreement used for sarcastic purposes only.

khayse

> Highest multiple I would pay... about 1.5. Pretty much for any series. I'll usually buy the one below the big price jump.
I usually buy below the big price jump (though not always), but I consider 1.5 the smallest multiple I would take. If an MS65 is $100
and the MS66 is $150, I'll go for the '66 every time.

Here's an example that I noticed last night. Most recent 2 datapoints from Teletrade:
1981D $1 MS66 $18
1981D $1 MS67 $500 (I was the underbidder at $475)

For a multiple of 27.77. Wow!

-KHayse

mgoodm3

I try to steer clear of all this thinking stuff. I buy coins that fall within a price range that I want to spend. If a 64 falls into my desifnated price range, well then that's where I'll go.

Elcontador

Re high grade 19th century type, I'll go between 2, maybe 3X the prior grade if I really like the coin. However, if I like the coin, someone else will usually like it and be willing to pay more than I would for it.

saintguru

I paid 5 times more for a 1909 ms65 Saint (7K in 64 at the time, paid $35K for 65)...and it was well worh it just as is...then I got it upgraded to a ms66!!! Now it's worth 10 times more!! POP4 none higher!!

I'd wager anything that in 10 years it's over 100K. Actually I wagered 35K allready.