OK, I can't take the suspense anymore.............
Boom
Posts: 10,165 ✭
WHY ARE SO MANY PEOPLE SELLING OUT?? All opinions appreciated. How about it Mark, Laura, John Feigenbaughm, Leo Frese, HRH, Mr. Sherman, etc etc and the rest of you heavyweights!
How about you monsterman, oreville, Russ? Open invitation for honest opinions.
How about you monsterman, oreville, Russ? Open invitation for honest opinions. 
0
Comments
Chris
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Low pop moderns (IMHO, THE wrong thing to be shelling out crazy money on because moderns' low pops can be destroyed overnight) are hot while older higher grade standards are cheap.
Lots of people bailing out!
Guess I'm outta the loop, cause other than a few sets being sold, I wasnt aware the market was turning. Bein overseas, I miss alot.
<< <i>I miss alot.
Hammiebone gets the understatement of the year award!!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>I miss alot.
Hammiebone gets the understatement of the year award!!!!
Hey Puff...I see stock in Depends went up. Havin more problems huh?
now, quit tryin to derail Booms thread
<< <i>WHY ARE SO MANY PEOPLE SELLING OUT?? All opinions appreciated. How about it Mark, Linda and the rest of you heavyweights!
To drive the market down so that I can afford more coins, of course... Duh.
Self Indulgence | Holey Coins | Flickr Photostream
Jerry
Seriously ... a lot of classic coins have put on some really solid gains over the last five to seven years ... why not try to sell into a strong market (if you are ready to move on to something else that is)?
Okay, so a lot of people think about selling occassionally, especially as some stuff gets the "hot" money. Then when the market starts to saturate, more and more coins start coming out as people are afraid this will be their last chance out at these prices for a while.
BTW, Typically this cycle starts with high reserves, and then more and more coins are not selling ... isn't that kind of what we are starting to see ... a start of some market saturation? That's what I think I see.
If that's the case, the bigger question is ... was it hyped so much that the sell-off from newbies and speculators as any prices start to soften (not to pre-run levels, but not top prices) will cause a correction of "crash-like" proportion again?
I don't think so ... at least not for original quailty classics. They may not hold 100% gains for the five year run, but most won't give back half that (overall, this would be maybe a 25% drop) ... at least IMHO
Are people borrowing heavy to get in? Are they so over extended they're holding their breath? Does a 15% drop trigger a sell of a classic coin?For some, yeah, I know it does ... but that happens. Hopefully not much more than other hot markets.
And hopefully not like 1988-89 when the fast Wall Street money rolled in at the same time ... and everybody jumped on for the ride ... and then a little while later, much of that money disappeared, leaving the last man standing holding the dime.
Let's not talk moderns ... I liken them to the NASDAQ in 1999 ... for the most part a large herd chasing a few winners, but only a few smart leaders. There will be a lot of consolidation IMHO long-term. There are some smart collectors in the modern arena, to be sure ... and they'll have the best of the best locked up ... but the rest, well ... we'll see.
... I think I drink too much coffee after dark ... and so I ramble ...
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
My Ebay!
fingers crossed.
And since you're obviously a bunch of smart people, I'm sure you don't have all your eggs in one basket.
<< <i>
Let's not talk moderns ... I liken them to the NASDAQ in 1999 ... for the most part a large herd chasing a few winners, but only a few smart leaders. There will be a lot of consolidation IMHO long-term. There are some smart collectors in the modern arena, to be sure ... and they'll have the best of the best locked up ... but the rest, well ... we'll see.
>>
"Everybody" loved the NASDAQ in 1999. It was overbought and ended up crashing.
"Everybody" hates moderns in 2004. They are extensively and widely underbought.
Nobody can control the modern markets for exactly one of the reason that "everybody"
keeps bashing them: Most were made in huge quantities and were widely distributed.
Of course there are numerous modern rarities but these would have been just as hard
to control since the low prices mean there just aren't any interested sellers.
This is not to say that I agree that classic prices are dropping or that modern prices are
rising. It is merely to point out that your reasoning contradicts what I see in classics, in
moderns, and in the markets.
Wasn't modern bashing ... if that's what it sounded like. Also, I firmly believe that those who assemble the absolute finest of these coins will do well in the long-term.
My idea of modern might be dated a bit compared to how it is taken in context these days. I consider "modern" to include all those coins that come after the first major hiatus of lady liberty ... with her complete demise by 1948. I usually consider 1951 and beyond "modern", although I think 1964 is another turning point (as was 1934).
Quite frankly, I see a lot more of the heard mentality in the group of collectors that chase coins from the later years at todays top prices(generally speaking). They're fleety, they come and go quicker. A set building process is six months, or a year. Of course this is only my observation.
I hear of wonder coins from the 50's, 60's and 70's fetching $1000's, even a few at 10's of $1000's ... yet many gems sit locked in rolls for years to come. Hell, I have some. How many super coins are there in those rolls, that will be perserved for many, many years before they ever reach our market? How many 65's and 66's are really 67's and 68's waiting for a specialist to find them? Hard to say ...
... but, and in reference to my NASDAQ comment; it is betting on the unknown and the chance of numerous possible dilutions.
Maybe the modern market isn't moving ... as it seems you suggest ... so that would be a bad comparison.
At least with many classics there are less probable dilutions. In fact, maybe there is even a consolidation. As more coins get "conserved", etc. there are less truely original classics left.
Anyway ... if you collect what you like, and like what your collection becomes as you learn what's important to you, then it always has value. Whether it be a world class collection of Walkers like Puff's, a PR69DCAM set of SAE's, or a Choice AU/Unc set of original classics like mine.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
different in any way to other collectors. There are still few enough that I have some difficulty
believing that many are getting into moderns because they're popular. Most are probably
getting in because of the strenghts and charms of the moderns rather than that someone told
them that these are the greatest coins in the world.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, there are many rolls which are simply not out there. How
many original rolls of '69 quarters can you come up with? Even many rolls that were saved in
"large" quantities like '66 nickels do not contain gems. People who collect these coins have some
idea of what's available and what isn't. Even when we're wrong, we still certainly know the diff-
erence between a common coin and a rarity. Yes, populations of any and all of these coins may
well increase in time but this does not make them any less desirable. And if the number of coll-
ectors grows more quickly, it will not make them any cheaper. In the mean time we're just having
fun and if prices increase it will increase the fun for some and decrease it for others. ...And it will
add excitement for all.
I am sure it is still early to tell if a trend to the down side has developed, but there seems to be accumulated selling of large collections. Besides the individual rarities and sets, large collections like the Tidwell Bust Halves, Registry sets, and many other collections seem to be coming to market in greater numbers. After a pretty slow show last week, Heritage is having their largest ever Internet Auction this week, and telling bidders to load up?
Generally in a tight “HOT” market you would expect to see less and less available, rather it appears that few are holding good coins for the fall, dealers, auction houses, and large collectors are choosing to unload. Most of these folks are the ones at the top with their figure on the pulse of the market, so what do they know that we do not?
This 1796 Half sold after the reserve was dropped, and seems a little soft for this market?
1796 Half Dollar, VF25 NGC. O-102, R.6, realized $57,500 From the Queller Family.
Heritage:
Attention Internet Bidders!This week's Exclusively Internet (EI) Auction is the largest Internet-only auction we have ever had, containing over $1,000,000 worth of fresh coins. Most of the coins are being offered with unusually low reserves! This sale includes an exceptionally fresh retail consignment, in addition to coins purchased at the ANA and Long Beach Coin Shows. You will be pleasantly surprised at the breadth of this week's offerings, and how easily you will be able to acquire coins at favorable prices. The quality material in this week's Exclusively Internet Auction compares favorably to what we offer in our popular Bullet Auctions. If you are already a regular EI buyer, we suggest you budget 2-3 times as much time as you normally spend, because this sale is a doozy!
even more interesting is that the speculation surrounding any market determines it's future. When you have a huge influx of new collectors, due mainly to State Quarters and new Nickels, possibly someone watching Coin Vault since they don't have the Knife Show for entertainment any longer, or maybe a new coin shop opened near them and sparked some memories of collecting with their grandfather.
what I'm trying to say is. Just because it's a bear market, doesn't mean that it is instantly going to turn into a bull market. But when there is messageboard after messageboard and show after show full of people screaming that the sky is falling!, the market will begin to take that shape. Unless there are specific reasons that are shaping the future of coin collecting. I can't forsee anything that will turn the market around in the near future. There are going to be plenty of people being turned on when they actually notice that their nickels have now changed as well, and will most likely take an interest in the coins they can no longer find.
I'd love to hear reasons from others why they think the market is going to head downwards.
Last year at this time everyone was scrambling, buying like crazy, especially within the category of coins that interest me, Washington Quarters, circulation strikes 1932-1964. Some people went absolutely crazy , buying PCGS 67 pieces, paying crazy money...even assembling multiple sets! NOW things have slowed to a trickle. I just witnessed a PCGS 67 1934 go without a bid. Last year the seller would have made a killing on this coin. Timing- If I owned that coin I sure wouldn't be giving it away!
Example- CW "Trends" writer continually says the market is strong ...
Conversely, a newly released coin that is top pop for a day goes for CRAZY money?? Now THAT is REALLY insane! (No disrespect meant to those that either "Make" or collect these, but ) THAT has to be a stupid investment, especially since there are others out there, yet to be certified, that when are certified will destroy this "Low-Pop" coin's value. Now, which is the smarter buy, a freshly released coin that is a tentative (shaky at best) top pop or a stable older coin whose pop is unlikely to change much?
IMHO, with all due respect, the Registry itself shares some of the blame. As coins came out and pops loaded up there came to be a direct correlation with falling premiums. The more pops rose and the market flooded, the more these Gem ++ coins decreased in market value.The obvious winner here is the grading service. What a great way to bring out the high quality coins that had previously been stashed away. What a great way to generate revenue for "The Company", capitalizing on human nature to compete. Submissions got so out of hand that they could not keep up as witnessed by the turnaround times that many complained about which seguays into my next point!
If it all crashed tomorrow, the real winner is PCGS because of this brilliant marketing strategy. Next point...submissions will now slow...why should I submit, for example, anything MS66 or lower at a minimum of $16 when I would be fortunate to sell, let's say, a PCGS 66 Washington Quarter for $35.00? A coin almost 60 years old, in that high a grade, certified by PCGS and THAT'S ALL it brings? Well, for the most part I and a lot of people have stopped selling these coins. I'd rather sell them raw (click the sig). Another good example...the undisputed King of Washington Quarters, my friend , manofcoins... take a look at what he is auctioning.
OK, I started this thread and I waited to submit my diatribe. There are some that are regretting shelling out big bucks as recently as just a few months ago attaining high grade Washies. Many that have "extras" are selling them off. A couple of old sayings come to ming here. #1-ONLY THE STRONG SURVIVE and #2- Just as in stock, real estate, etc..."Buy low-Sell high!" Put these together and IMHO, this is the WRONG time to be bailing and the RIGHT time to be buying! Everything I own...I OWN. I am in no danger of losing anything therefore I intend to hold and wait and buy. This is not bragging, simply the facts/ the truth. I'm not going anywhere and my heart goes out to all that got in over their heads and stand to lose BIG TIME. OK...thanks.. I'm done. (Whew)...NEXT!!!
BY ALL MEANS, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ENLIGHTEN US. This invitation to "contribute" goes out to everyone, even HRH, Mr Sherman, any and ALL of you that are even more "in the know" than a 50 year old that has been active, studying Numismatics for over 40 years. What do you guys have to say? Your opinions are requested here too and would very much be appreciated.
<< <i>It's very interesting when any market has a peak or valley.
even more interesting is that the speculation surrounding any market determines it's future. When you have a huge influx of new collectors, due mainly to State Quarters and new Nickels, possibly someone watching Coin Vault since they don't have the Knife Show for entertainment any longer, or maybe a new coin shop opened near them and sparked some memories of collecting with their grandfather.
what I'm trying to say is. Just because it's a bear market, doesn't mean that it is instantly going to turn into a bull market. But when there is messageboard after messageboard and show after show full of people screaming that the sky is falling!, the market will begin to take that shape. Unless there are specific reasons that are shaping the future of coin collecting. I can't forsee anything that will turn the market around in the near future. There are going to be plenty of people being turned on when they actually notice that their nickels have now changed as well, and will most likely take an interest in the coins they can no longer find.
I'd love to hear reasons from others why they think the market is going to head downwards. >>
I'm not convinced any market is necessarily turning down. It does look like some are
taking a little breather but this is probably about equivalent to an anaconda eating a
small goat; it takes time to digest. This isn't to say that there can't be some rotation in
the market also and as Boom says the time to buy is when prices are low, not when
they're through the roof.
There also seems to be a little increased seasonality in the market the last couple years.
This is probably caused by the fact that many of the newer collectors are younger and have
more warm weather activities which keep them away from their collections. When the snow
flies you just might forget about this "correction" altogether.
With the ever increasing value of my collection, and hot market, I have to take a look at the investment side of the collection. When I had two or three thousand dollars worth of coins, market swings wouldnt do anything to my bottom line. However, now my collection value is really close to my net yearly salery. Since I'm a middle class citizen, I need to factor in the investment side of the hobbie. So I took a good look at the current market and asked myself two questions:
1) If I sell out and keep the money in my hobbie, where does it have strong potential for growth.
and
2) If the bull gets eaten by the bear, what coins will most likely take the smallest financial hit.
So, thinking about this a while, I dicided that the Key dates offered strong potential for growth paired with some pricing ineartia in the event of a fall out in the market. After all, what dealer isnt going to think twice about dropping the price on a SVDB lincoln or 93-S morgan to a level below what they paided? Sure, if it sat there for a year or two, but I think they will go down the slowest.
Considering these things, I started selling off my collection to purchase some of the tougher keys. At this point, I've been concentrating on the $1000+ coins. I can get those now, but once the $ from my cent collection is gone, they will become much more difficult for me to get. I want to get some really hard ones (for me) while I can.
I hope this help explain the logic to you.... at least in my case. I cant speak for everyone else that's selling out.
David
<< <i>I dicided that the Key dates offered strong potential for growth >>
Very good point which I did allude to. I can appreciate THAT decision!
ER, I editted that line to read properly now, sorry...had a brain glitch and temporarily forgot her name! My apologies.
Think about it...have circ. shield nickels been affected? No way. They never participated in the run up to begin with. Have the high end mint state and proof specimens been affected??? Anyone have a feeling for this?
I agree there are a lot of sets being sold. However, I'm not sure that it is any more than normal. We may be seeing more in auctions and less private sells, however. The auction companies have done a good job of reaching the collector and now that venue is more attractive to a seller than it would have been previously when auctions were more of a wholesale outlet. So, while the sellers may be more visible now, that does not necessarily mean that more are selling.
On the other hand, if there are more selling, I think it is driven by desire to take some profits with the phenominal gains that have occured over the past few years.
I don't think people "see" the end and are thus selling. No one's crystal ball is that good.
WH
All other factors aside relating to any market, This is an ELECTION year, people in general will HOLD onto their money until they know what the outcome is going to be. This year is a close race so people will hold until November, and then there's another variable I've noticed, the HOLIDAY's, people hold heading into Nov. through Dec. then start spending after New Years if the world doesn't blow up(thank you y2k), then progressively spend more the warmer it gets, until they get the first big Energy bill from running their A/C 24.7
I remember after 9/11, nobody was doing anything in real estate, it took a good couple months to get up and running again, which then led right into the holiday's, so it was a complete disaster for some(like me) without the huge bank roll to float through the lull's.
I have no fear that the coin market will continue to strive, sure it will fluctuate, but that's when you must know when to buy and when to sell, basic investment strategies. Even if you're not in this for an "investment", it's stupid to buy the coins you collect at the top of the market when you could grab them and more at the bottom.
When something is on our mind [say, perhaps, buying a new jeep], we notice the instances of that occurring [a jeep drives by on the road] more than if it wasn't on our mind.
Some segments of the market are strong, some are stable and some are weak. I wouldn't get worried until all are strong or all are weak.
I'm still buying and paying strong prices for what I need, it's just that I need less than I did a few years ago.