Why do collectors and dealers expect the impossible??
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
What I'm talking about is the constant haggling, wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth over how out of whack this-or-that price guide is. It's almost laughable that some want a sheet that tells them what they need to pay for a coin while at the same time acknowledging that in many, many instances ANY previous sales price is irrelevant. These are guides, references. I find it funny that even if there were some way to accurately track every price of every coin that sold on the floor and at auction during the ANA convention and the Greysheet were to have updated their listings on the Monday after the convention ended, that listing would already be useless, prices are moving that fast and dealers are that greedy.
I am convinced that as long as the market is moving at it's current pace, that as long as dealers continue to sell between themselves 3-5 times before a collector gets a shot, as long as collectors agree to pay premiums on any/all coins without self-discipline, we will see inane rants about out-of-whack pricing sheets. There's always a solution. When the current pace slows somewhat, maybe a little and maybe a lot, actual prices paid and sheet prices will move closer together. Till such a time, quit expecting someone else to tell you what a coin is worth or what you should expect to pay for an item.
Do your homework and then take it to the shows/shops/online auctions with you. But please, stop whining about the Greysheet and continuing to reference it with the expectation that it'll help you out. That, in a word, is stupid.
Al H.
I am convinced that as long as the market is moving at it's current pace, that as long as dealers continue to sell between themselves 3-5 times before a collector gets a shot, as long as collectors agree to pay premiums on any/all coins without self-discipline, we will see inane rants about out-of-whack pricing sheets. There's always a solution. When the current pace slows somewhat, maybe a little and maybe a lot, actual prices paid and sheet prices will move closer together. Till such a time, quit expecting someone else to tell you what a coin is worth or what you should expect to pay for an item.
Do your homework and then take it to the shows/shops/online auctions with you. But please, stop whining about the Greysheet and continuing to reference it with the expectation that it'll help you out. That, in a word, is stupid.
Al H.
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Ken
i run into the same thing and i have a perfect solution------------------i walk away!!!!!!!!! perhaps you missed my post phrase about "self-discipline" which i believe is the most damaging aspect of any individual collector's personality. lack of same not only causes that individual money, it also bites us all in the ass somewhere down the road. after all, unless you're speaking of very,very few coins, other examples will show.
discipline, grasshopper!!!
al h.
Aerospace Structures Engineer
They are all called Price "Guides"
Most important word is "guide."
Some coins warrant prices higher than the "guide" and some below the "guide."
It is definately impossible to track prices during a bull run like right now. Plus, just because someone paid $300 for coin A a week ago at a Heritage Auction does not mean it is not worth 350 today.
<< <i>reminds me of this one time at a show when a 40 yr old was haggling over an AG-3 barber quarter. He kept yelling at the dealer that he bases the price on mintage. What was even funnier was that he was haggling over paying an extra 50 cents. >>
That is just plain rediculous....but funny. Every show their people like this. Amazing, truly amazing.
but all coins trade in a range which can be quite wide when their is a disinterested
seller and a motivated buyer or a buyer who has to have his arm twisted to be in-
terested.
...and, of course, no two coins are exactly alike anyway. The price guides can't list
a price for every coin on the market.
Be this as it may there are still obvious shortcomings with most guides and even the
best are doing a slower job than usual keeping up with a dynamic market.
Same here but it is also very frustrating when a dealer knows so little about coins that the only thing he can consult is a darn price guide that is worthless. The situation out here is that the price guide must get up to date or the collector is basically screwed. Thats why I think the whine is needed.
If I was wealthy and could travel alot then I agree with you because the price guide would mean nothing at all. Thats not the case. Maybe this collector should only buy over graded raw junk from now on. There is no listing for those pieces.
Ken
Price guides drive most of the heard. You are free to sell elsewhere, but be prepared for miles of walking at a major show and tons of rejection. Or you can sell to one of the board members who so often step up and offer more than dealers do........
Do your homework and then take it to the shows/shops/online auctions with you. But please, stop whining about the Greysheet and continuing to reference it with the expectation that it'll help you out. That, in a word, is stupid.
Whatever you say. I've done my homework over the past 30 years. I know that an 1851-0 seated half in MS63 is worth closer to twice what CDN says. Since I did my research Keets, are you ready to fork over the money to me? Didn't think so. That's the game.
roadrunner
If I was wealthy and could travel alot then I agree with you because the price guide would mean nothing at all.
hey Ken
my perspective is somewhere in the middle of those two statements. collecting anything Modern forces us to do our homework and know what prices are while at the same time being held at the mercy of a dealer who must price according to where he bought. this is why i'm so keenly aware of the constant dealer-dealer-dealer-dealer-dealer-dealer....................trading that goes on. the same people who post that the Greysheet is all screwed up will comment that the dealers are limited to those prices and the trading is limited by it, also. that's a very dire misconception. i've witnessed dealers buying/selling between themselves at past sheet only for stock and knowing that collectors will pay a price/profit that is based solely on what they bought the item for. it's all a stupid game predicated by the bull market. till that market slows, all sheets will be outdated as they roll off the press, collectors will bemoan that fact and , well, add whatever you'd like to, but it's silly to complain about it while adding to the problem.
al h.cool;
as seems to be your style you offer a comparison about a specific coin and would have it speak for all things. that's OK i guess, but why ask a question and then sarcastically answer it?? besides, we're talking mainly about the "ask" side of the equation. the "bid" side is always a wash for the collector even if the sheet is perfectly reflecting all sales.
but hey, rant on and whine on, it'll probably serve you well, right?? i thought so.
al h.
They are the ones who will sell 20% back bid when the real price is 20% over bid.
During the 1988-1989 the CDN and Bluesheet changed prices every week across the board. It was nuts, but they kept up. Pluses littered the sheet every week for months on end. Since the CDN ownership has changed, the updates no longer occur with any frequency. There is a reason other than it's just too hard...because it ain't that hard.
roadrunner
you seem to know the market you move in, so why would you need a pricing guide?? perhaps it would be helpful for the dealers you're trying to sell to, but if you go to someone who moves in the same market, wouldn't they also know the pricing and make a fair offer?? if they don't, walk away.
i guess the whole premise of this thread is that there isn't enough "walking away" being done by collectors, they buy too high, sell too low, and then complain. that's stupid. people don't do that in other markets, they go to different stores or something. in this hobby we are our own worst enemy and stick out head in the sand. that is stupid.
complaining about the price sheets is kind of like an attempt to sherk responsibility. i, for one, won't claim to be a victim for my own lack of discipline.
al h.
<< <i>.
During the 1988-1989 the CDN and Bluesheet changed prices every week across the board. It was nuts, but they kept up. Pluses littered the sheet every week for months on end. Since the CDN ownership has changed, the updates no longer occur with any frequency. There is a reason other than it's just too hard...because it ain't that hard.
roadrunner >>
This is very true. While accuracy on a continuing basis is impossible for many reasons, there
is no reason that when prices have obviously increased they can't be updated on a case by
case basis. While there may well be no more reason for their actions than mere editorial pol-
icy, it is not necessary to show prices increase by huge amounts and then languish for a pro-
tacted period followed by another large "pop". While collectibles markets do behave this way
as a whole over the long term, individual coins do not behave this way over the short term.
Well, perhaps a little later, got to run for now.
Ken
jom
what i usually see is dealers consulting many sheets at the same time, Greysheet, Bluesheet, CoinValues, Trends and their inventory lists. others already have the price or use a code and will generally negotiate.
al h.
And it would be done for Free.
Since the price guides generally are off in my area, auctions are about the only place to determine value. Walking a bourse floor is often a useless proposition for better date seated in higher grades.
Sure, you can sell your coin on a bourse floor on any specific day....if you're willing to take a 20-40% hit. There isn't one major dealer who I've dealt with that doesn't use the sheet as a guide. And if the sheet is 100% off...that's a problem to the seller...especially an uneducated one. He or she IS going to GET LESS for their coin if they are not fully tuned in to the market. And what collector can be tuned in day to day?
Examples, you bet. You need them. Here's another that I've mentioned on other threads.
CDN just doubled the price of the No Drapery half in MS63 to MS64. It was off by 100% for 2 years until the CDN changed it following the Jung sale. Where was the CDN when Jung bought that coin for 80% over bid about 2 years ago? It was on a major website and sold.
Do these guys ever look at the web? That's hard I know. Or how about when 2 others sold at the same time in 2002 for that same kind of money? Do the editors of the CDN even talk to real collectors and dealers to get their inputs? Of course not. That would be work....and less profit to the dealers if prices went up too much. I know when Keith Zaner first worked for Coin World in the the 1980's I wrote him a letter mentioning how far off his seated material prices were. I gave him concrete examples, dates and grades, and he eventually changed them, no doubt after doing a bit of his own research.
This was not a rant...just the facts.
roadrunner
There are good dealers who will "consult many sheets at the same time, Greysheet, Bluesheet, CoinValues, Trends and their inventory lists" before make an offer. Nevertheless, majority (I would say over 60%) of dealers simply read the blue sheet to give offer(s). If you don't believe this, try it yourself.
You'd think some people want a "set in stone" price for everything. Funny thing is, because we all have access, many believe they should be able to pay these advertised dealer buy prices (or less) everytime they buy, and get at least those prices (if not full retail) everytime they sell.
In the long run, this (of course) can not work or there would be no dealers, who, by the way, do a large part in keeping the market alive. Which dealers would buy a coin for resale, advertise and show their coins to potential buyers, and then hold the coin until someone came along who wanted to pay exactly the same price they did (or less) for it. That would be a truely failed business model.
The market is a DYNAMIC marketplace with buyers and sellers, from wholesalers to retail customers, and everypoint in between. For many it is a business (not for me), for some a hobby, for some an appearent investment, and for some a mix of these.
However, a real dealer (which I define as someone dependant on the money they make buying and selling to provide their personal income), has to make some profit or they can't be in business (although these days I think that there are quite a few wannabe's paying near retail prices and hoping to make another 10-25% {or more} everytime out ... and then trying in any way they can to get a rip on everything new they see so they can make more).
From some of the whining I've seen here, it also seems there are a lot of seller's hoping that every dealer is that same wannabe; more money than brains.
They'll all be gone soon enough (I hope), just like in years past.
Spreads and pricing are (and need to be) different for different coins. I typically look at the greysheet and bluesheet bid as the lowest common demoninator. A price to pay for a coin that probably would not be very exciting to own, at least to a seasoned colelctor. One that makes the grade, but that's it. And given what I already said, if that's the case, then why would a dealer offer good money for that coin. If the buyers he knows are reluctant at greysheet pricing, he better be well back when he buys it.
On the other side of the table, trends used to be (and still is, I believe) more of the highest common demoninator. The coin, for the grade, has everything. Originality, eye-appeal, enough scarcity and desreability to attract buyers. Usually it is priced accordingly. The dealer offering it probably paid all or more of bid to get it (and even then they may have gotten a pretty good deal). When the coin says, "Step up and buy me, or someone else will", and the dealer steps up and drops strong money to bring it into his offering, and then wants a fair profit to place it, do you begrudge him? If he's wrong about the coin he'll eat it.
Grading, pricing, eye appeal, desirability ... all are SUBJECTIVE.
Knowledge, patience and percerverance are all learned parts of this hobby/profession.
This is a very serious hobby to some, and a very real business to others.
If you are one of the one's who wants it all layed out on a silver platter, you came to the wrong place. If it was that easy to do, make money at, et al ... everyone would do it.
And I second Keets on his closing ... quit whining about it and figure out something that works for you.
On a side note ... I buy a sheet package either once a year or once every two years. I also look at trends and other guides about as often ... even in this (and other) "high-paced" market times. I take those numbers and make my own model for the coins I want to own (in case they become available), using multiple colums for the grade ranges I am interested in and wieghting and averaging those numbers. This requires alot of time, and watching certain issues being sold that I do not intend to buy, but that are similar (same series, grade range, etc.) so I can wieght the pricing properly. I consult the latest sheet I own and the models for an approximate price. It has proven to be very accurate unless someone "statue-of-liberty's" the coin, or is just holding out for moon money.
Then it's up to me. Is it the coin I really want to spend my hard earned money on?
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Something seems strange in all of this. Everyone is complaining about CDN being out of whack. Then don't use it. They are not obligated to anyone to keep this up to date. For those who think they can do better, please do. Do your research, get it printed and sell it. I am sure that if you can keep it updated frequently, you will be able to sell many copies.
My local dealer generally looks at a few guides before giving me the price. The "counter guy" is different from the "buyer guy". The counter guy will guide me if he feels that they paid too much for the coin. It is my option to still go ahead and purchase if I feel that I really want the coin.
Also in regards to the Greysheet, 2 recent sales of a particular coin way above sheet should not make their listed price match the recent sales. As a collector, I expect that I will pay above sheet for a coin and get below sheet when I sell. That is how dealers make money.
Again, if you don't like the price, walk away. Don't whine.
And even if each one were the same there is no reason to believe that everyone would pay the same price. Each dealer is different and for various reasons they may sell or offer to buy that coin at a different spread than the dealer sitting right next to them. Maybe they have a customer with that coin on there want list or maybe they have had one in there inventory for the last 6 months and its just dead money to them.
If 5 of us went to 5 different Ford dealers and we all bought the same car I doubt that we would all pay the same price and vice versa If we all took the same car and used it for a trade in I doubt that we would all receive the same money.
Why would we expect coins to be any different?
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<< <i>complaining about the price sheets is kind of like an attempt to sherk responsibility. i, for one, won't claim to be a victim for my own lack of discipline. >>
In the real world you can't just pay what you "feel" like or "walk away" if it doesn't "feel" good. That's how my daughter shops for clothes. Thats how they can buy at wholesale and sell at retail.
Now what you charactarize as a whine are those whio have noticed that a newsletter that "claims" to be tracking sales info is not doing its job. They have become used to selling the rag and are not making an effort to keep it current. How we use is not important, the fact is if they claim to have accurate information then they should.
Of course, there are those who like others not having any idea what the market is doing, better to take advantage of them that way.
If you guys choose not to look at the sheet when you buy/sell thats great. But if they are selling info it should be accurate.
Crazy as it seems, it's what most buyers and sellers do.
And even if each one were the same there is no reason to believe that everyone would pay the same price. Each dealer is different and for various reasons they may sell or offer to buy that coin at a different spread than the dealer sitting right next to them. Maybe they have a customer with that coin on there want list or maybe they have had one in there inventory for the last 6 months and its just dead money to them.
What a dealer wants for a coin may have no bearing on its value.
If he wants more for it because of the wrong reason, it won't sell.
The market determines what it's worth....not the dealer. If he underprices it...she sells......if he overprices it....she sits.
If 5 of us went to 5 different Ford dealers and we all bought the same car I doubt that we would all pay the same price and vice versa If we all took the same car and used it for a trade in I doubt that we would all receive the same money.
If there were such a price guide, there is a good chance all 5 buyers would ask for it at that price. But for $15-$40 you can find out the dealer's buy price on line. Since we all differ on our negotiation skills and market saavy we would not get the same price even with the same price guide. But nothing wrong with being in the same ball park. Car dealer's margins have been squeezed down over the past 10 same years....same for coin dealers. Coin dealers can still obscure the real deal by a coin's PQness within it's grade range and by vague price guides that are taken as gospel. The CDN is no longer a Coin Dealer's Newletter but a market place newsletter.
roadrunner
I see you know nothing about buying and selling.
nice to know you have me all figured out.
In the real world you can't just pay what you "feel" like or "walk away" if it doesn't "feel" good.
oh, is that right??!!?? you make it sound like we're obligated to buy coins. i imagine you think this is actually a good market to be buying in, when in fact it's probably much better to be a seller. but hey, i don't know squat about buying and selling, correct??
Now what you charactarize as a whine are those whio have noticed that a newsletter that "claims" to be tracking sales info is not doing its job. They have become used to selling the rag and are not making an effort to keep it current. How we use is not important, the fact is if they claim to have accurate information then they should.
now who knows nothing about buying and selling?? now who goes in ignorant of value and lets a "sheet" tell him what his coins are worth. if the "sheet" is as screwed up as you believe it to be, why on earth are you referencing it. that's just plain stupid. unless you like exercises in futility.
Of course, there are those who like others not having any idea what the market is doing, better to take advantage of them that way.
do your homework, boy. don't expect someone else to do it for you. they could get it wrong, right??
If you guys choose not to look at the sheet when you buy/sell thats great. But if they are selling info it should be accurate.
why use it if we know it ain't right or accurate?? that makes no sense.
you make no sense, but whine on.
al h.
I had "toned down" my reply before I saw your post. It's part of my attempt not to be antagonistic. I apologize for the comment.
My premise still stands. Part of my homework is looking at the sheet, as well as ebay auctions and Heritage etc. That's how I know the sheet is off. The fact remains that I cannot attend every show or follow the price flow of thousands of coins. If I specialized in one of two then it would be easier follow.
I'm sorry stating facts that are not positive are considered a whine. Maybe we just need a board of cheerleader types.
I have to agree with Keets. If you feel that the sheet is so worthless, why do you bother to include it in your price reference/research before buying a coin?
Your comment "...you can't just pay what you feel like or walk away if it doesn't feel good" doesn't make any sense to me. Isn't that how we buy things? If we feel that it is overpriced for what it is, don't most us not buy it and look for it cheaper elsewhere? How goes out to buy a TV and doesn't look at Best Buy, Circuit City, and any other electronics shops we have in our local area? We find the TV we want and if the price is too high, you walk to the next store.
I do use the CDN as a guide. They are not under any committment to you to keep the prices where you feel that they should be. You don't have to pay for their services. I would say that 90+% of what I buy follows CDN. My dealer openly let's me know what his margin is above sheet. If he got a good deal on the coin, I get a good deal on the coin. But we look at the sheet together and get a price. If I don't like the price, I don't take the coin.
I might advise you to do the same.
K S