Options
CONTEST: So How Easy or Tough Are 1981(s) TY 1 Lincoln Cents To Slab in PCGS-PR69DCAM - PRIZE!!
wondercoin
Posts: 16,687 ✭✭✭✭✭
I just got in some PCGS-PR70DCAM coins dated 1981(s) from a large bulk deal of (400) fresh 1981(s) Proof Sets submitted to PCGS. I was really hoping the fresh 400 Proof set batch would have graded at least -1- PCGS-PR70DCAM Ty 1 Lincoln cent for my collection (every other denomination yielded PR70 coins), but it did not. But, how many 1981(s) Lincoln cents in PCGS-PR69DCAM Ty 1 did the 400 proof set batch yield? First person to guess the exact number of 1981(s) Ty 1 PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincolns graded from the 400 proof sets wins a handpicked "monster deep cameo" PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincoln cent (date my choice, but, I will sort through my "special" inventory to hopefully find a super PR69DCAM monster DCAM specimen from the 1990's or possibly even the 1980's).
One guess per board member. Have fun and good luck!
Wondercoin
One guess per board member. Have fun and good luck!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
0
Comments
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
U.S. Nickels Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
U.S. Dimes Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
littlejohn
36 is my final answere
12/14/03 Bremer Confirms U.S. Captured Saddam
Joe Holt
joe_holt@bellsouth.net
Mark - All Lincolns were labeled correctly.
If no one guesses the exact answer I will award the prize to the board member whos guess was closest to the right answer without going over the correct number. If (2) or more board members have a winning guess - the first in time wins the prize. I will announce the answer in less than 2 hours at 11:00 p.m. CA time tonight.
Wondercoin
Sorry about no 70's
My guess = 282 Pr69DCAMs out of a well picked batch of 400.
Better luck next time.
CLif
The pop report indicates that 600 1981-s Type 1 lincolns have graded pr69Dcam or better out of 826 submitted. Assuming your "fresh" batch matched the average (and rounding down since I don't want to go over), my guess is 290. If you had handpicked the sets, naturally, I would have rounded up!
MS Buffalo
MS 1951
12/14/03 Bremer Confirms U.S. Captured Saddam
Joe Holt
joe_holt@bellsouth.net
RR
One of the interesting things about some proof moderns, such as pre-1982 Lincoln cents, is that, in my experience, many of the coins which are slabbed come about through large "bulk" submissions, such as the (400) 1981(s) Proof sets submitted here. Yet, PCGS does not count the coins which do not achieve the particular minimum grade assigned to the bulk submission - in this case 390/400 Lincoln Cents actually graded by PCGS, but, failing to achieve the minimum grade of PR69DCAM and never getting holdered.
Consider the current online PCGS population on 1981(s) TY 1 Lincolns: there are 826 total coins (in RED) showing in the pop report, of which -8- are in the grade of PR70DCAM, 592 are in the grade of PR69DCAM, 105 in the grade of PR68DCAM and 121 in graded PR62 through PR67.
One of the board members formulated his guess with this comment:
"Mitch,
The pop report indicates that 600 1981-s Type 1 lincolns have graded pr69Dcam or better out of 826 submitted. Assuming your "fresh" batch matched the average (and rounding down since I don't want to go over), my guess is 290. If you had handpicked the sets, naturally, I would have rounded up!"
The above comment demonstrates that the typical collector (even an advanced collector) might naturally assume that basically 1/100 coins submitted grade PR70DCAM and nearly 75% of all coins submitted are at least of PR69DCAM quality. Yet, just from this one single batch this week, we see that 390 sub-PR69DCAM coins never found their way into the PCGS pop report. Hence, in the case of 1981(s) Lincoln cents, I believe the pop numbers are heavily skewed in favor of the misconception that nearly 75% of all 1981(s) Lincolns from Proof sets are of PR69DCAM quality (when, in this sample, a mere 2.5% were of PR69DCAM quality!) Basically, PCGS does not maintain records on exactly how many coins fail to achieve a minimum grade so we really do not have a handle on exactly how many proof sets are being broken up to "make" these PR69DCAM and better coins.
NOW THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS BEING LAID OUT BY A NOVICE (ME) IN THE FIELD OF STATISTICS - I WILL STATE UP FRONT THE NUMBERS I COME UP WITH ARE PROBABLY WRONG - BUT, DOES ANYONE TRULY HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT THE RIGHT NUMBERS ARE?
At a 2.5% grade through rate for 1981(s) PR69DCAM Lincolns and assuming a significant portion of the existing (592) PR69DCAM coins were slabbed through bulk grading (does anyone really knows just how many made it in the pop report through bulk grading vs. non-bulk grading?) - exactly how many proof sets were broken up to achieve the (592) PR69DCAM coins? Using a 2.5% grade through rate (and by no means does this one bulk submission prove 2.5% is the right figure), it might require 23,680 fresh, random, sets to get (592) PR69DCAM 1981(s) coins!! Moreover, applying the ratio of 8 PR70DCAM compared to 592 PR69DCAM (1.35% of the coins are PR70DCAM and 98.65% of the coins are PR69DCAM (vis a vis only those (2) slabbed grades) - one might need as many as roughly 150,000 1981(s) Proof sets to slab a PCGS-PR70DCAM Lincoln cent on average (again, assuming my (faulty) 2.5% grade through rate and any advanced knowledge of statistics which I admit I do not possess)!! OK - let's assume my 150,000 figure is wrong for a PR70DCAM Lincoln and my 23,680 is wrong for a PR69DCAM Lincoln -still, inquiring minds would like to know exactly how many unopened sets of 1981(s) coins it does take on average to slab these Lincolns?
When moderns are discussed, I often see folks "throwing the baby out with the bathwater". While (400) fresh sets of 2004 proof coins might possibly yield 350+ PR69DCAM coins (and, therefore, an easy calculation as well on how scarce or common PR70DCAM coins are as well) - when one begin to discuss proofs from the 1970's and early 1980's, my continuing research demonstrates that many of the pre-1982 proof coins are extremely difficult to locate in PR69DCAM and PR70DCAM (depending upon the coin). On the other hand, a huge percentage of every 2004(s) Lincoln cent struck by the mint these days is of PR69DCAM quality I believe.
Anyway, I just thought this would be interesting "food for thought" as I am personally fascinated by many of the higher grade proof coins struck between 1950 and the early to mid- 1980"s. I hope you also enjoyed the contest.
The answer here is -10- PCGS-PR69DCAM Lincolns out of (400) fresh and original 1981 Proof Sets!! Mark Wood is our winner - he guessed 7. Mark - a super guess!! Congratulations on winning the contest.
Wondercoin
Mike
About Rare Coins
About Rare Coins
12562-B Central Ave
Chino, CA 91710
mike@gemcoins.net
www.gemcoins.net
Mike
About Rare Coins
About Rare Coins
12562-B Central Ave
Chino, CA 91710
mike@gemcoins.net
www.gemcoins.net
I really received alot of info from reading this post and I for one appreciate it.
By the way, I would have guessed less then 100 would have been PR69DCAM.
Later, Paul.
Later, Paul.
Thank you for your insight into PCGS modern proof top pop numbers and their grading. It helps me understand a current submission I made.
A little background, if I may. I have collected all the Lincoln cent memorial proofs over the years. Most were from proof sets I got from the US Mint and some earlier ones were raw. Last year I submitted them all to PCGS for grading to get into the registry. The results are shown in my memorial BASIC registry. This year I got the proof set from the US Mint and sent it in immediately for grading. I was very careful in the transfer. I got the results last week. They graded my 2004 Lincoln as PR68DCAM, one of only 2 graded so far. I was disappointed and immediately went on EBAY and ordered a PR69DCAM. Both coins arrived yesterday. I compared them and I could see that the PR69DCAM did have a superior cameo than my proof set coin.
So, based on what you said in this thread, it was really stupid of me to try to "make" one of these modern Lincoln proofs IF I am looking to get a 69 grade. Fact is, early this year I upgraded all my 1978's forward to 69 since that will be the ONLY acceptable grade for the last quarter century of proof coinage going forward. I'm guessing that very few collectors are submitting modern proof coins for grading by PCGS. Probably 95% or more of the coins are submitted by bulk from dealers as you describe with any not making the 69 or 70 grade just being returned. Makes sense to me. I will not be sending my 2005 Lincoln proof to PCGS. I will buy it slabbed. Much cheaper that way. Thanks again for the insight.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
I also love to go through rolls to find coins.
BST
MySlabbedCoins
I am trying to soak up your knowledge like sponge! Thanks for the great read. I learned my lesson last month trying to make a PR69 DCAM Lincoln. Steve is right, just buy it slabbed....it's much easier and most of the time cheaper. Got any 79-S TY II Lincolns in 69 DCAM? Looking to upgrade my 68 DCAM....
Toby Leach
Wondercoin
from perhaps .2% for a '74-P Ike to as high as about 5% for a '72-D quarter. For a few coins
you need to change the definitions a little to make them fit; a '65 SMS cent in the top 2%
will hardly be a DC gem while an '88-D cent will be a spectacular gem about 30% of the time
unless you demand that it be PL then it's more like 2%. The proofs are the same way but
there tends to be a little less variability. '81-S cent gems do tend to run a little more common
than most.
There is probably no real cause of this number being at about 2%, it is just the odds that
most everything went right in the manufacturing process when they were made.
Of course these top 2% are not really created equal either. There are some (often ~5%)
that stand out from the rest.
Web: www.tonyharmer.org
Wondercoin
Interesting analysis. Let's see where it leads. First, my disclaimers - I love to play with numbers
Let's assume your 400 fresh sets truly were "fresh" and were a representative sample of the mint's production quality in 1981. If true, then your 2.5% "grade through rate" is statistically reasonably accurate. This implies that 2.5% of all the proof Lincoln cents minted in 1981 were of Pr69DCam or better quality. Since there were over 4 million proof cents minted in 1981, that comes to over 100,000 1981 PR69DCam or better cents. With similar and additional assumptions as you describe, 1.35% of this number would be PR70DCam, or a mere 1,350. To me this says they may be a lot of work to make, but there are a very large number of 1981 pr69DCam and pr70DCam cents out there.
CoolKarma
P.S., I just noticed that these number don't agree with the straightforward interpretation of the 23,680 sets and 150,000 sets. The first can be reconciled by noting that the 23,680 sets were needed to slab 592 pr69DCam cents not 1 (40 sets per which was your experience). I can't derive your 150,000 so I don't know where that discrepancy may be
MS Buffalo
MS 1951
If it only took 50,000 sets to slab a PR70DCAM, I believe that number jumps to around 80 PR70's, and so on.
But, the above discussion is sort of "micro"-moderns 301 advanced class. In "macro" moderns 101 - the concept is learned that attempting to calculate grade through rates of raw proof set coins merely from pop report numbers is faulty analysis due to minimum grade considertations. That is really all I was trying to show from this real life experience.
Wondercoin
<< <i>If you assumed my numbers and 150,000 sets were needed to slab a 1981(s) TY 1 PR70DCAM, >>
then to yield the 8 known 1981 PR70DCams cents, 1.2 million 1981 sets would have to have been submitted to PCGS. PCGS has been very busy, but that sounds incredible. As I said, I can't follow your calculations to reach 150k sets needed per PR70DCam. I calculate 3,000/PR70Dcam, 40/PR69DCam, based on
your success: 400 sets yields 10 PR69DCams => 40 sets to get 1 PR69DCam
and the ratio of PR69DCams/PR70DCams: for every 75 PR69DCams there is 1 PR70DCam => 40 sets * 75 = 3000 sets.
And the assumption that all PR69DCams and PR70DCams were made by bulk submissions, and undoubtedly other assumptions
<< <i>But, the above discussion is sort of "micro"-moderns 301 advanced class. In "macro" moderns 101 - the concept is learned that attempting to calculate grade through rates of raw proof set coins merely from pop report numbers is faulty analysis due to minimum grade considertations. That is really all I was trying to show from this real life experience. >>
Agreed
MS Buffalo
MS 1951
Very interesting discusion about statistics. With my experience in sending in MY ONE proof set for grading each year, I did "make" 5 PR69DCAM's on my own. Mitch, I would be interested in getting your "gut feel" as to what percentage of modern Lincoln cent proof coins (1990 to present) are submitted to PCGS and NOT GRADED (returned) from dealers on their bulk submissions. I recognize that most of these submissions would have been pre-screened by dealers in the first place. Your own personal experience may be an accurate guess. Thanks again for your input. Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
You essentially never really know how many sets have been searched until they nearly run out - right? Again, we are not talking about 1999-date proof sets here where the vast majority of EVERY coin is shot PR69DCAM. In the case of pre-1982 Lincolns, or pre-1978 in other denominations, the PR69DCAM grade (and higher) becomes increasing difficult (consider a coin like the 1974(s), 1975(s) or 1976(s) Lincolns (just a bit older than the 81(s) we are discussing here) where -0- PR70DCAM coins have ever been graded in any of the 3 years since PCGS opened its doors. So, how many proof sets are needed to locate a true PR70DCAM of the 1975(s) or 1976(s) Lincoln cent? Anyone? Indeed, there are just slightly over 100 PR69DCAM's (let alone PR70) of these 2 years and they sell for $200-$300+/coin whenever a nice one is available!
Again, all of this is just "food for thought".
Wondercoin
P.S. Richard - I really don't have a handle on the annual grade through rates for the Lincoln proof series. My suspicion is coins from the 1990's and 2000's have very high grade through rates, while coins from the 1970's and early 80's do not. Of course, when you get into the 60's and early 70's, the coins often are not even cameo at all, let alone achieving a PR69 grade. Heck - the last 1971(s) Lincoln cent in PR69DCAM sold at Heritage for more than $17,000.00 as I recall! A "true" 2-sided PR69DCAM 1971(s) Lincoln cent is, no doubt, a "modern rarity" in my opinion.
been brought up. But there is one point that Wondercoin touched on that is being very
much ignored and needs to be looked at. Namely it's the fact that these high grade coins
are coming from nice original sets. They aren't found much in sets which have been kicking
around between dealers for a few years and they certainly won't be found in the sets being
sold on TV nor by the large retailers. Almost every set which has hit the market over the last
decades has been either destroyed or stripped of varieties and other desirable coins. Even
those sets which remain original with some gems are mostly going into mint or proof set col-
lections. These are being formed by relatively young people and they aren't going to sell them
simply because the value goes up. Most will be held for decades until these collectors retire.
The supply of mint and proof sets remaind very much the same as it's always been; estate
sales and very tired longs. These are the sets which were purchased by the original owner
right from the mint. Since most of these buyers were in their 40's and 50's when they purchased
the sets, the supply coming on the market has been slowing for years. These sets have not on-
ly been destoyed by retailers and collectors but simple time and tide has destroyed more than
1% annually. These latter are no longer available at all. The coins are lost and destroyed or
in circulation. Many people simply can't comprehend the numbers of these in circulation. Despite
the many billions of coins circulating a significant percentage are proofs which is even more in-
credible when you consider that most of these are removed by the first collector who notices it!
Even those sets which have been dismantled by dealers and collectors will have a large tendency
to no longer represent high grade coins. Some dealers dismantle the sets indiscriminately and
sell the contents to the first person willing to pay a quarter or fifty cents for the coins. These were
then pushed into albums and even folders. Those sets have essentially been consumed. There
will be a few collectors and hoarders who have some quantities of these but consider getting and
saving these coins is hard work and there have always been few who ever thought there might be
a payoff for the effort.
This means that to a large extent the original mintages no longer have a lot of meaning and what
you see is what you get. Most dealers have a lot of these sets in stock and this has been suffi-
cient to supply the aenemic retail demand. There probably aren't even 50,000 proof sets of each
date in dealer inventories any more. The rate at which most of these sets flow onto the market
from estate sales and the like will not be sufficient to supply the burgeoning demand for intact sets
from collector in the near future. Indeed, it has probably already started! Dealers are paying more
now for the old mint sets which suffered the highest attrition because there simply aren't enough
walking in the door to keep them in stock. As time goes on this will spread to other dates and be-
come far more acute as the fresh supply continues to dwindle and the demand continues to ratchet
up.
At some point it's even likely that larger numbers of collectors begin seeking these sets just because
of the growing perception of "rarity". With such tiny numbers of most of these sets available a buying
panic cannot be ruled out.
With a minrtage of 4,000,000 and an incidence of 2% the implication may be that there are no more
than about a couple thousand of the top grade coins still available plus whatever has been set a-
side by investors, speculators, and dealers over the years!!! This last number is probably far lower
than most would predict and is even much much lower for some of the coins from modern sets.
Time will tell.
Makes me want to start looking at '81 proof sets.
Then again, naw. Better things to do.
date in dealer inventories any more."
CK: Exactly the piece of the puzzle no one really knows the answer to.
How many Mint sewn bags of 1960(d) and 61(d) Jeffs are still in existence (heck, a MS64FS of the 60(d) just sold for around $31,000)!!
How many 1983(p) rolls of quarters still exist?
You really never know, but you can begin to speculate when you start seeing $31,000 for a nickel from the 1960's
Wondercoin