Has value in Barry Bonds topped out?
frankhardy
Posts: 8,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
Is it time to start invensting in Barry Bonds? Not to mention that he will pass the 700 HR milestone this year, and Babe Ruth early next year, but he is also having a great season AGAIN (AND AT AGE 40).
As much of a Cardinals fan that I am, I am starting to believe that Bonds will win yet another MVP award this year. I know Pujols and Rolen are having tremedous years, but this Bonds guy is unbelievble. He gets maybe two pitches to hit all game and makes good nearly every time. Look at these stats (keeping in mind that Pujols has 177 more AB's) .358 avg., 34 HR, 76 RBI, and get this .609 on base percentage! That is incredible. That would set an all-time record for on base percentage. He is slugging .799 and his OPS is an unheard of 1.408. He has 34 HR and only 24 strikeouts! That is amazing. He also has no one protecting him in the line up.
Taking all of that into consideration, if the Giansts even come close to the playoffs, Bonds has to be the MVP, even though I would love Pujols or Rolen to get it.
Now, should we start buying up a bunch of PSA 9's and 10's? I tend to think that when he breaks Aaron's HR record that his cards might go up a bunch. Just think if this guy was as loveable as McGwire, ARod, or Sosa!
As much of a Cardinals fan that I am, I am starting to believe that Bonds will win yet another MVP award this year. I know Pujols and Rolen are having tremedous years, but this Bonds guy is unbelievble. He gets maybe two pitches to hit all game and makes good nearly every time. Look at these stats (keeping in mind that Pujols has 177 more AB's) .358 avg., 34 HR, 76 RBI, and get this .609 on base percentage! That is incredible. That would set an all-time record for on base percentage. He is slugging .799 and his OPS is an unheard of 1.408. He has 34 HR and only 24 strikeouts! That is amazing. He also has no one protecting him in the line up.
Taking all of that into consideration, if the Giansts even come close to the playoffs, Bonds has to be the MVP, even though I would love Pujols or Rolen to get it.
Now, should we start buying up a bunch of PSA 9's and 10's? I tend to think that when he breaks Aaron's HR record that his cards might go up a bunch. Just think if this guy was as loveable as McGwire, ARod, or Sosa!
Shane
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Shane
email bcmiller7@comcast.net
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<< <i>Those stats don't lie, but those steriods sure do. >>
Agreed!
Shane
<< <i>Those stats don't lie, but those steriods sure do. >>
Interesting. He's putting up stats just like he did the last few years (of course, when they pitch to him at least), so he must be fooling the investigation this year by somehow taking steroids unnoticed with everybody watching him. He must have close ties to David Copperfield. I'm sure talent has nothing to do with the stats. Obviouly Pujols isn't taking steriods........just look at his stats.
<< <i>Sorry, he's an a-hole. >>
Yep, there's the proof that his cards won't go higher in value.
BOTR
BOTR - Why do we have to keep going through this with everyone??? Pujols, Rolen, and maybe even Jim Edmonds will steal MVP votes from each other, and Mr.Bonds will win his 7th award in '04. Hey, Barkley, Malone, and Ewing were all great players also. They were just unfortunate to have to play their careers in the same era as Michael Jordan. Lots of great players, but only one MVP. Bonds has 6 of them. Even as one of the most hated players in the game. Why? Because the numbers don't lie.
I think their will be a bump again in his card values when he passes 700 HR later this year.
TheRoach
BTW, he's also at just under 2700 hits. The way he's walking though, he might not get 3000 in another 2 seasons, either.
I think this is Albert's year to win the MVP, though. I know Bonds's stats are better, but writers don't seem to like voting for the same guy every year even if he's the clear winner. Mantle, Musial, Mays, etc. all could have won 7 or 9 MVPs if the voters were honest with themselves. More recently, after Mo Vaugh won in 1995, he was actually better the next year. Same with Giambi in 2000-2001. But with his numbers being so incredible, maybe Bonds will win again even if a lot of people want to give it to Pujols.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
Something only goes up in value if demand exceeds supply. So it's really demand that we need to look at. Like I said, how many people are waking up to Sportscenter each morning and saying to themselves Hmmm, who is this Bonds guy? He's good! I need to get some of his cards before the rest of the world finds out!"? Maybe in 1990 there were a bunch, but certainly not now.
Ty Cobb was hated by nearly everyone, and now his cards are some of the most valued and desired ones around. If Bonds breaks Aaron's all-time HR record, will his cards pick up value, not necessarily right away, but in later years, by those people who weren't around to see Bonds play, but only know of him due to the HR record? They won't necessarily care whether Bonds was an a-hole or not, they will just want the cards of the all-time HR king.
I know that Cobb cards are thousands of times rarer than Bonds cards, and that that factor plays a huge part in the value of Cobb's cards. I also realize that in this age of card grading, there will probably never be a shortage of Bonds graded cards. Regardless of these factors though, I think that Bonds cards, especially his rookie cards, will continue to go up, up and away in future years if he breaks Aaron's record.
Heck, look at the value of Willie Mays cards. Most people, at least those who have attempted to get his autograph at a show or wherever, agree that Mays is an a-hole. That doesn't seem to have done much damage to his card values. People just want his cards, since he is arguably the greatest player of all-time.
Steve
I agree the late 80's will never be scarce, but people who don't know anything about cards will probably be looking for Bonds cards with all the publicity that will surround the chase. I think his rookie cards will show a jump in price when he gets close to the record. They will probably level off afterwards like Mc Gwire's rookies did. But should hold much better long term value since he will be the all - time record holder.
moi
<< <i>who still doesn't have at LEAST 1 (out of 6 TRUE) rookie card in a 9 or 10 holder? >>
I don't have one.. almost bought one but thought.. 'why would I want a card that everyone else has I may as well go to ikea and buy a billy bookcase'
He's 3-3 so far tonight. Batting avg upto .365 and we are only in the 5th inning. He's unreal folks.
TheRoach
BOTR
1) He passes 700
2) He passes Ruth
3) He passes Aaron
4) He gets his 3000th hit
5) His retirement
6) Hall of Fame Induction
7) A few years later when his accomplishments are put into perspective. This means the On Base Pct., the intentional walks, the MVPs (I think this will be #7), the 3000 hits, his final batting average with the # of dingers, stolen bases, his early fielding, etc...
How many of you ever thought Aaron would be surpassed? I thought the 755 was nearly as solid as the Dimaggio streak. How many people ever thought they'd see a man walk over 200 times in a single season? How many people thought a .600 on base average was possible? This isn't the early days around the turn of the 20th Century when athletes weren't exactly what they are today and baseball was still taking shape. A lot of these accomplishments took place without someone hitting behind him in two of the hardest dinger ballparks.
Collectors will always want to have a high grade example of Bonds. Kids will become adults and remember him as the dominant player of their generation. Also, I think grading companies will start to become very stingy with 10s. I think they will balance the bell curves a bit.
If I actually liked Bonds and thought of baseball cards as an investment, I'd put away a ton of the 86 Topps Traded and 87 Fleer RCs. I don't think 500 dollars for a 10 is out of the question within a few years. The Tiffany Topps XRC will probably triple because of greater rarity. But, I do think this will be limited to rookie cards and later issues where there is some scarcity. It won't be like the high prices across Mantle's years.
Plus, the roids will probably lead to an early death, so, there's another bump in price.
S.
I think "jason045" hit it on the head.
Sure, everybody has 1 or 101 of his rookie cards, but how many have PSA 10's, or BGS 9.5's, or GAI 10's. I sure don't, but I am thinking about buying some.
Shane
loth
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
<< <i>Mr.Bonds will win his 7th award in '04 >>
ROACH - The fact that he has already won 6 will probably hurt him w/ the votes, some may vote on others figuring that its time for a different face, maybe Albert...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
2 doubles and a triple. Batting .370 now.....
TheRoach
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
Bob
bobsbbcards SGC Registry Sets
If you were to say you could have a true rookie of the greatest hitter of our era, in a true 'limited' edition, or a second year card produced in limitless quantities, you're saying you'd rather have the '87?
Though then again, not by much...
Scott
T-205 Gold PSA 4 & up
1967 Topps BB PSA 8 & up
1975 Topps BB PSA 9 & up
1959 Topps FB PSA 8 & up
1976 Topps FB PSA 9 & up
1981 Topps FB PSA 10
1976-77 Topps BK PSA 9 & up
1988-89 Fleer BK PSA 10
3,000 Hit Club RC PSA 5 & Up
My Sets
<< <i>In 10-15 years one of those bats could be worth 3x or 4x more than it is today. Because of supply, I don't know if I can say the same about his >>
I agree Scott
As a ball/bat collector, I can say that Bonds was a cheap buy in terms of auto ball years back - I'm thinking Scoreboard had them on sale for like 20$ in 93 - check out the ball prices now! The GU stuff was always a bit pricey for me.
Mike
100 Jordan PSA 10's
163 Bonds PSA 10's
The Topps Traded Tiffany #11T is still a great investment.
1986 Donruss Rookies 3,897 and 540
1986 Fleer Update 6,418 and 498
1986 Sportsflicks Rookies 1,742 and 803
1986 Topps Traded 13,734 and 2,198
1986 Topps Traded Tiffany 927 and 163
1987 Donruss 8,138 and 543
1987 Donruss Opening Day 428 and 42
1987 Fleer 7,555 and 421
1987 Fleer Glossy 3,198 and 247
1987 Fleer Hottest Stars 280 and 29
1987 Topps 1,568 and 121
1987 Topps Glossy A.S. 9,161 and 4,834
1987 Topps Tiffany 682 and 67
1987 Toys R Us 718 and 68
The jaw-dropper for me was regular '86 Topps Traded. More of those are graded than anything in either '86 or '87 ... about 8 times more than regular 1987 Topps! Clearly regular TT is not the Bonds rookie to buy if you later want to sell to a hungry market.
Scarcity among the mainstream issues can be found in '86 TT Tiffany, '87 Donruss Opening Day, '87 Fleer Hottest Stars, '87 Topps Tiffany, and '87 Toys R Us (which may not strictly qualify). And amazingly, regular 1987 Topps.
Also of interest is the fact that '87 Topps Glossy Bonds, often called "rare" by those selling it, has more than twice as many PSA 10's than any other single issue -- in fact 48 TIMES AS MANY as regular 1987 Topps, which you would think would have the most.
Now this obviously does not account for the mega-tonnage of unopened and ungraded '86 and '87 material still out there, or the vast number of Beckett-graded Bonds rookies. For what it's worth....
The Beckett numbers pretty much mimic the PSA stats. The 87 Topps Glossy are also the highest pop for Gem Mint (BGS 9.5).
Also interesting that of 5000+ 86 Fleer Update graded, only 73 earned BGS 9.5. Based on Beckett's number, this is the card to own in Gem Mint.
Edited to say: and of course the Canadian issues (87 OPC, 87 Leaf) start to look pretty damn good compared to the mainstream issues
<< <i>Also interesting that of 5000+ 86 Fleer Update graded, only 73 earned BGS 9.5. Based on Beckett's number, this is the card to own in Gem Mint. >>
Yeah, as you might expect, the cards with dark borders have a small percentage of PSA 10's.
Still can't figure out why so few '87 Topps are graded. Because they're ugly?
<< <i>Becket Pop Report
The Beckett numbers pretty much mimic the PSA stats. The 87 Topps Glossy are also the highest pop for Gem Mint (BGS 9.5).
>>
The 87 is a nice looking card, that is why so many are graded. When the others start catching up, the 87 Glossy AS will be the card to own, there are only about 30,000 total!
<< <i>BTW, Barry is going out of his way to be more friendly, this will make people be more forgiving and not set him apart from all of the other drug users(of which consisted of just about all players). >>
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That's quite an accustation there . . .
I'm more than certain you have proof of that when you make a statement like this .
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Most Bonds Rc cards these days aren't even worth the grading fee... >>
Thats exactly the time to buy em, unless you're the type of person that buys from shopping channels!
And unlike a lot of stars from previous generations his contributions to both baseball history and American culture end outside of the baseball field
yeah he was pretty human actually and nice when he hit 756 in the interview,
randy
Matter of fact, I think I still have enough of a piece left to have another Bar- B -Q .