Has value in Barry Bonds topped out?

frankhardy · August 20, 2004 2:53AM

Is it time to start invensting in Barry Bonds? Not to mention that he will pass the 700 HR milestone this year, and Babe Ruth early next year, but he is also having a great season AGAIN (AND AT AGE 40).

As much of a Cardinals fan that I am, I am starting to believe that Bonds will win yet another MVP award this year. I know Pujols and Rolen are having tremedous years, but this Bonds guy is unbelievble. He gets maybe two pitches to hit all game and makes good nearly every time. Look at these stats (keeping in mind that Pujols has 177 more AB's) .358 avg., 34 HR, 76 RBI, and get this .609 on base percentage! That is incredible. That would set an all-time record for on base percentage. He is slugging .799 and his OPS is an unheard of 1.408. He has 34 HR and only 24 strikeouts! That is amazing. He also has no one protecting him in the line up.

Taking all of that into consideration, if the Giansts even come close to the playoffs, Bonds has to be the MVP, even though I would love Pujols or Rolen to get it.

Now, should we start buying up a bunch of PSA 9's and 10's? I tend to think that when he breaks Aaron's HR record that his cards might go up a bunch. Just think if this guy was as loveable as McGwire, ARod, or Sosa!

jrinck · August 20, 2004 2:56AM

Sorry, he's an a-hole. That's the cap.

frankhardy · August 20, 2004 3:11AM

I know! I actually can't stand his personality either, but those stats don't lie.

milbroco · August 20, 2004 3:14AM

Those stats don't lie, but those steriods sure do.

willmacowski · August 20, 2004 3:29AM

i dont think they'll level out until he finishes breaking every record of all time. this guy is a machine!

-will-

frankhardy · August 20, 2004 3:37AM

<< Those stats don't lie, but those steriods sure do. >>

Agreed!

BugOnTheRug · August 20, 2004 4:07AM

<< Those stats don't lie, but those steriods sure do. >>

Interesting. He's putting up stats just like he did the last few years (of course, when they pitch to him at least), so he must be fooling the investigation this year by somehow taking steroids unnoticed with everybody watching him. He must have close ties to David Copperfield. I'm sure talent has nothing to do with the stats. Obviouly Pujols isn't taking steriods........just look at his stats.

<< Sorry, he's an a-hole. >>

Yep, there's the proof that his cards won't go higher in value.

BOTR

TheRoach · August 20, 2004 5:52AM

That sucks. I am a HUGE fan of Barry Bonds, and I hate to hear that all of the lame accusations and uneducated assumptions were actually true. Can someone please send me a link to the ESPN page, or wherever it was that they found the article announcing that he has tested positive? I would really appreciate it. I have had my radio on all day since reading this, but still no news.

BOTR - Why do we have to keep going through this with everyone??? Pujols, Rolen, and maybe even Jim Edmonds will steal MVP votes from each other, and Mr.Bonds will win his 7th award in '04. Hey, Barkley, Malone, and Ewing were all great players also. They were just unfortunate to have to play their careers in the same era as Michael Jordan. Lots of great players, but only one MVP. Bonds has 6 of them. Even as one of the most hated players in the game. Why? Because the numbers don't lie.

I think their will be a bump again in his card values when he passes 700 HR later this year.

TheRoach

helionaut · August 20, 2004 6:23AM

I think Bonds cards have topped out and maybe even slipped a little since, say, the first of the year, though I don't check very often. Whatever they're at now, they will probably reach new heights if he approaches 750. Whether he plays that long, though, is debatable. I think he said before last season he said he just wanted to play 3 more years. In the past he's said he would like to pass Ruth but not try to catch Aaron. Of course, he also once said he just wanted the 500/500 and he'd be gone. The way the numbers are shaping up, he might not get to 755 by the end of next season. If he ends 2005 with 740 or so, he might quit. If he's at 750, though, I don't see how he could. The wintertime of 2005-06 will be quite hot for Bonds, if it works out like that, with 6 months of anticipation building up.

BTW, he's also at just under 2700 hits. The way he's walking though, he might not get 3000 in another 2 seasons, either.

I think this is Albert's year to win the MVP, though. I know Bonds's stats are better, but writers don't seem to like voting for the same guy every year even if he's the clear winner. Mantle, Musial, Mays, etc. all could have won 7 or 9 MVPs if the voters were honest with themselves. More recently, after Mo Vaugh won in 1995, he was actually better the next year. Same with Giambi in 2000-2001. But with his numbers being so incredible, maybe Bonds will win again even if a lot of people want to give it to Pujols.

jrinck · August 20, 2004 7:23AM

And you can't forget that ALL of his cards were produced in the overproduction era. That's a big factor. It's not as if the cards are hard to get or that people all-of-the-sudden are realizing he's good. I'm by no means a Barry Bonds fan and I must have 100's of his cards--many 9-worthy and possibly a few 10's in there.

Something only goes up in value if demand exceeds supply. So it's really demand that we need to look at. Like I said, how many people are waking up to Sportscenter each morning and saying to themselves Hmmm, who is this Bonds guy? He's good! I need to get some of his cards before the rest of the world finds out!"? Maybe in 1990 there were a bunch, but certainly not now.

CADILLACN97 · August 20, 2004 9:09AM

i agree with JRINCK. at moments his cards may turn a quick buck, but they have leveled off, and may go lower. so much product, so much more that hasn't been opened. you may find a few bandwagon jumpers as he nears another milestone causing a soar in prices for that moment (namely people that don't know better), but they will trickle down again. who doesn't know about bonds, and who still doesn't have at LEAST 1 (out of 6 TRUE) rookie card in a 9 or 10 holder?

SDSportsFan · August 20, 2004 11:18AM

Here's another way to look at Bonds card values...

Ty Cobb was hated by nearly everyone, and now his cards are some of the most valued and desired ones around. If Bonds breaks Aaron's all-time HR record, will his cards pick up value, not necessarily right away, but in later years, by those people who weren't around to see Bonds play, but only know of him due to the HR record? They won't necessarily care whether Bonds was an a-hole or not, they will just want the cards of the all-time HR king.

I know that Cobb cards are thousands of times rarer than Bonds cards, and that that factor plays a huge part in the value of Cobb's cards. I also realize that in this age of card grading, there will probably never be a shortage of Bonds graded cards. Regardless of these factors though, I think that Bonds cards, especially his rookie cards, will continue to go up, up and away in future years if he breaks Aaron's record.

Heck, look at the value of Willie Mays cards. Most people, at least those who have attempted to get his autograph at a show or wherever, agree that Mays is an a-hole. That doesn't seem to have done much damage to his card values. People just want his cards, since he is arguably the greatest player of all-time.

Steve

jaybyrd · August 20, 2004 12:17PM

When and if he gets close to the record, it will be all over the news. Even if he isn't a media darling, the most vaunted record in sports cannot be ignored.

I agree the late 80's will never be scarce, but people who don't know anything about cards will probably be looking for Bonds cards with all the publicity that will surround the chase. I think his rookie cards will show a jump in price when he gets close to the record. They will probably level off afterwards like Mc Gwire's rookies did. But should hold much better long term value since he will be the all - time record holder.

WinPitcher · August 20, 2004 1:17PM

who still doesn't have at LEAST 1 (out of 6 TRUE) rookie card in a 9 or 10 holder?

moi

inFluX · August 20, 2004 1:29PM

<< who still doesn't have at LEAST 1 (out of 6 TRUE) rookie card in a 9 or 10 holder? >>

I don't have one.. almost bought one but thought.. 'why would I want a card that everyone else has I may as well go to ikea and buy a billy bookcase'

TheRoach · August 20, 2004 1:40PM

Go get them while you can still afford them!!

He's 3-3 so far tonight. Batting avg upto .365 and we are only in the 5th inning. He's unreal folks.

TheRoach

uniship · August 20, 2004 2:42PM

He could double all his stats over the next 12 years, and his cards will always be what they are relative to vintgage cards - and that is TOILET PAPER. too much production for his mainstream cards to be any more than they are now. In fact, in 10 years, I bet they are lower than they are now. imho

BugOnTheRug · August 20, 2004 2:44PM

Bonds cards will go up in price as the 700, 714, and 755 numbers are met. How much so %-wise remains to be seen. Look for the BGS 9.5's, PSA and GAI 10's to gain the most. But since there is SO much modern of Bonds out there, years from now those cards will fall back to earth pricewise. I have 50+ rookies (87D and 86DR) that I will sell during this 'journey'. I'll buy them back years later for less coin. Sorry, you can't compare Mays, etc. cards due to the comparable rarity. With ebay being the auction and collection 'pit', you will typically find multiple copies of any of his rookies at any time in any grade.

BOTR

Axtell · August 20, 2004 3:53PM

I think if there is any spike in his card values if/when he breaks the all-time HR record. After that, there may be an additional spike when he gets into the HoF, but after that, I'd say no. His valuable cards (as mentioned here previously) are just far too easy to get in perfect condition. The fact he's been a complete a** to the media and fans his entire career doesn't help his appeal to the hobby (neither does his perceived involvement in the entire BALCO investigation).

Scumbi · August 20, 2004 10:42PM

I'm going to go against the grain here. I think Bonds cards will continue to appreciate as long as they are slabbed PSA 10, BGS 9.5 and GAI 10. There will be a lot of fanfare when:

1) He passes 700
2) He passes Ruth
3) He passes Aaron
4) He gets his 3000th hit
5) His retirement
6) Hall of Fame Induction
7) A few years later when his accomplishments are put into perspective. This means the On Base Pct., the intentional walks, the MVPs (I think this will be #7), the 3000 hits, his final batting average with the # of dingers, stolen bases, his early fielding, etc...

How many of you ever thought Aaron would be surpassed? I thought the 755 was nearly as solid as the Dimaggio streak. How many people ever thought they'd see a man walk over 200 times in a single season? How many people thought a .600 on base average was possible? This isn't the early days around the turn of the 20th Century when athletes weren't exactly what they are today and baseball was still taking shape. A lot of these accomplishments took place without someone hitting behind him in two of the hardest dinger ballparks.

Collectors will always want to have a high grade example of Bonds. Kids will become adults and remember him as the dominant player of their generation. Also, I think grading companies will start to become very stingy with 10s. I think they will balance the bell curves a bit.

If I actually liked Bonds and thought of baseball cards as an investment, I'd put away a ton of the 86 Topps Traded and 87 Fleer RCs. I don't think 500 dollars for a 10 is out of the question within a few years. The Tiffany Topps XRC will probably triple because of greater rarity. But, I do think this will be limited to rookie cards and later issues where there is some scarcity. It won't be like the high prices across Mantle's years.

Plus, the roids will probably lead to an early death, so, there's another bump in price.

S.

jason045 · August 21, 2004 12:19AM

Axtell, I wouldn't say his best cards are easy to get in perfect condition. Just take a look at the Beckett an PSA pop reports for his most valuable card, 1987 Fleer #604. Beckett: 7,832 total graded, 113 9.5s, and 0 10s. Psa 19,432 total graded, 421 10s. This translates into less than 2% of all the '87 Fleer Bonds RCs graded by PSA and Beckett come back Gem Mint. By no means easy. As of right now there are only 534 total gem mint Bonds Rcs from the 2 best graders in the industry. How many people do you think will be looking for this card when he approaches 700, 714, 755, 800? This will be all over the news and people who don't even collect cards will be jumping into the mix to get a piece of the action. Demand will greatly exceed supply, and we all know what that means.

frankhardy · August 21, 2004 12:44AM

When I posed the question, I wasn't talking about just any old rookie card of his. I am talking about MINT and GEM MINT examples.

I think "jason045" hit it on the head.

Sure, everybody has 1 or 101 of his rookie cards, but how many have PSA 10's, or BGS 9.5's, or GAI 10's. I sure don't, but I am thinking about buying some.

wallst32 · August 21, 2004 1:18AM

86TTR Tiffany is the card to get in MINT or higher grade. 87 Fleer is way over produced (and overvalued in my opinion). Thousands of them on the market, and thousands more to be uncovered in unopened packs and factory sets. 2% gem mint for cards of that era is nothing unusual, and then factor in the large number of cards; 2% of a large number is still a large number.

Lothar52 · August 21, 2004 1:41AM

what is the beckett and smr values of his psa 9 cards right now for 86 fleer update, topps trade, DR, and his 87 fleer/donruss??

loth

bobsbbcards · August 21, 2004 2:20AM

Plus, don't forget about his 1987 Donruss Opening Day card error picturing Johnny Ray! This is the toughest of Bonds' early cards and should go up to at least 1 million dollars (and change).

qualitycards · August 21, 2004 2:45AM

<< Mr.Bonds will win his 7th award in '04 >>

ROACH - The fact that he has already won 6 will probably hurt him w/ the votes, some may vote on others figuring that its time for a different face, maybe Albert...jay

TheRoach · August 21, 2004 9:28AM

3-3 so far today....

2 doubles and a triple. Batting .370 now.....

TheRoach

helionaut · August 21, 2004 10:09AM

For the record, I have 1 1987 Fleer RC that might grade a 9 but it has a little red toning on the back bottom edge. I also have a 1987T I pulled from a pack back then. But this winter might bear searching out PSA 10s, BGS 9.5s, and such as I have to think there will be greater demand in the future.

bobsbbcards · August 21, 2004 10:12AM

4 for 4 with 2 walks. Now batting .372. If the game continues on long enough and Barry gets 13 hits in his next 13 at bats, he will be batting exactly .400. Wouldn't surprise me.

Bob

jason045 · August 21, 2004 11:54AM

A mint 86 Topps Traded Tiffany Bonds is no rare find. 2,061 total have been graded by PSA and BGS and exactly 1,400 have come back as mint or gem mint (1,127 mint, and 273 gem mint). Thats an astonishing 68% of cards graded by BGS and PSA that are mint or better and over 13% gem mint. And while there may only be 5000 sets in existence, the percentage of high quality cards is much greater than with the '87 Fleer. Pretty much, if you want a mint or gem mint '86 TT Tiffany Bonds, all you have to do is buy a factory set. Anyone who has ever submitted the '87 Fleer knows how difficult it is to get in high grade. I have been lucky enough to get a BGS 9 and a BGS 9.5 which I will be holding onto until they peak somtime next season.

jrdolan · August 21, 2004 12:18PM

What was the production run on 1986 Fleer Update?

Axtell · August 21, 2004 1:21PM

I am no fan of Bonds...but if I were, the PSA10 I'd want of his would definitely be the topps traded tiffany. Limited to 5000, and then have just 163 of those to be in 10? Who cares about percentages on things like this...lets look at raw numbers.

If you were to say you could have a true rookie of the greatest hitter of our era, in a true 'limited' edition, or a second year card produced in limitless quantities, you're saying you'd rather have the '87?

RedHeart54 · August 21, 2004 1:27PM

The 1987 Classic and 1987 Fleer Hottest Stars cards may prove to be the best bets. At the very least, they were printed in much lower numbers than the mainstream '87 sets.

Though then again, not by much...

fsjeter · August 21, 2004 3:02PM

I think you may see a spike when he gets closer to 755. I don't see much of a spike at 714. Right now, barring any injuries, 714 is a foregone conclusion. I personally think that his game used memorabilia is a better investment than his cards right now. The bottom line is his attitude. If he changes that, the game used stuff will appreciate a lot faster than his cards because there will be a lot less of it (the law of supply and demand at it's finest). It's much more expensive but I would rather have a couple of GU Bats or Jersey's than a few high grade RC's. In 10-15 years one of those bats could be worth 3x or 4x more than it is today. Because of supply, I don't know if I can say the same about his cards.

Scott

Stone193 · August 21, 2004 3:15PM

<< In 10-15 years one of those bats could be worth 3x or 4x more than it is today. Because of supply, I don't know if I can say the same about his >>

I agree Scott
As a ball/bat collector, I can say that Bonds was a cheap buy in terms of auto ball years back - I'm thinking Scoreboard had them on sale for like 20$ in 93 - check out the ball prices now! The GU stuff was always a bit pricey for me.
Mike

PDUB · August 22, 2004 1:38AM

In 10-15 years the Topps Traded Tiffany PSA 10 GEM MINT will be worth what Jordans 85 fleer gem mint rookie is worth now. I believe the PSA 10 will hit around the 8-10k range in the next decade, while Jordans card will go up too.

100 Jordan PSA 10's
163 Bonds PSA 10's

The Topps Traded Tiffany #11T is still a great investment.

ajw · August 22, 2004 5:29AM

PDUB, as Giants fan, I'd like to think you'll be right about your prediction. One big difference between the Bonds Tiffany and the Jordan Fleer is that there is only one (or two if you count the 85 Star) real rookie for Jordan. Bonds has at least three, but as many as six true rookie cards. So, if you want a Jordan 10 you buy one of a hundred or so Fleer. If you want a Bonds 10 you have thousands of cards to choose from.

jrdolan · August 22, 2004 6:28AM

I was curious, so I looked it up. From the PSA population report for Barry Bonds (9's and 10's):

1986 Donruss Rookies 3,897 and 540
1986 Fleer Update 6,418 and 498
1986 Sportsflicks Rookies 1,742 and 803
1986 Topps Traded 13,734 and 2,198
1986 Topps Traded Tiffany 927 and 163
1987 Donruss 8,138 and 543
1987 Donruss Opening Day 428 and 42
1987 Fleer 7,555 and 421
1987 Fleer Glossy 3,198 and 247
1987 Fleer Hottest Stars 280 and 29
1987 Topps 1,568 and 121
1987 Topps Glossy A.S. 9,161 and 4,834
1987 Topps Tiffany 682 and 67
1987 Toys R Us 718 and 68

The jaw-dropper for me was regular '86 Topps Traded. More of those are graded than anything in either '86 or '87 ... about 8 times more than regular 1987 Topps! Clearly regular TT is not the Bonds rookie to buy if you later want to sell to a hungry market.

Scarcity among the mainstream issues can be found in '86 TT Tiffany, '87 Donruss Opening Day, '87 Fleer Hottest Stars, '87 Topps Tiffany, and '87 Toys R Us (which may not strictly qualify). And amazingly, regular 1987 Topps.

Also of interest is the fact that '87 Topps Glossy Bonds, often called "rare" by those selling it, has more than twice as many PSA 10's than any other single issue -- in fact 48 TIMES AS MANY as regular 1987 Topps, which you would think would have the most.

Now this obviously does not account for the mega-tonnage of unopened and ungraded '86 and '87 material still out there, or the vast number of Beckett-graded Bonds rookies. For what it's worth....

phreakydancin · August 22, 2004 9:01AM

Becket Pop Report

The Beckett numbers pretty much mimic the PSA stats. The 87 Topps Glossy are also the highest pop for Gem Mint (BGS 9.5).

Also interesting that of 5000+ 86 Fleer Update graded, only 73 earned BGS 9.5. Based on Beckett's number, this is the card to own in Gem Mint.

Edited to say: and of course the Canadian issues (87 OPC, 87 Leaf) start to look pretty damn good compared to the mainstream issues

jrdolan · August 22, 2004 9:16AM

<< Also interesting that of 5000+ 86 Fleer Update graded, only 73 earned BGS 9.5. Based on Beckett's number, this is the card to own in Gem Mint. >>

Yeah, as you might expect, the cards with dark borders have a small percentage of PSA 10's.

Still can't figure out why so few '87 Topps are graded. Because they're ugly?

wallstreetman · August 19, 2007 4:04AM

<< Becket Pop Report

The Beckett numbers pretty much mimic the PSA stats. The 87 Topps Glossy are also the highest pop for Gem Mint (BGS 9.5).

>>

The 87 is a nice looking card, that is why so many are graded. When the others start catching up, the 87 Glossy AS will be the card to own, there are only about 30,000 total!

wallstreetman · August 19, 2007 4:18AM

BTW, Barry is going out of his way to be more friendly, this will make people be more forgiving and not set him apart from all of the other drug users(of which consisted of just about all players).

TNTonPMS · August 19, 2007 6:48AM

<< BTW, Barry is going out of his way to be more friendly, this will make people be more forgiving and not set him apart from all of the other drug users(of which consisted of just about all players). >>

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That's quite an accustation there . . .
I'm more than certain you have proof of that when you make a statement like this .

grote15 · August 19, 2007 8:27AM

Most Bonds Rc cards these days aren't even worth the grading fee...

jmbkb4 · August 19, 2007 9:14AM

the more people hate, the more i love.

rube26105 · August 19, 2007 9:14AM

they never had any to me,digging up boring old bonds thads from 3 years ago, thats impressive

wallstreetman · August 19, 2007 10:21AM

<< Most Bonds Rc cards these days aren't even worth the grading fee... >>

Thats exactly the time to buy em, unless you're the type of person that buys from shopping channels!

TomGshotput · August 19, 2007 11:14AM

The supply side on any cards (and autographs, etc.) is simply too big

And unlike a lot of stars from previous generations his contributions to both baseball history and American culture end outside of the baseball field

rube26105 · August 19, 2007 12:42PM

<BTW, Barry is going out of his way to be more friendly,>
yeah he was pretty human actually and nice when he hit 756 in the interview,
randy

TNTonPMS · August 19, 2007 2:15PM

I dunno about that . . . . I ran out of matches to light the Bar-B-Q so what I did was grab a Barry Bonds rookie , lit it on the stove and ran out to the Bar-B-Q and lit it with that , so it did have some worth .

Matter of fact, I think I still have enough of a piece left to have another Bar- B -Q .

wallstreetman · August 20, 2007 1:37AM

Has value in Barry Bonds topped out?

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