ANA auctions: Reality check, please...

MrEureka

I just reviewed the ANR, B&M, Superior and Heritage catalogs. There must be $40-50 million dollars worth of coins! Yet, it seems like there aren't very many surprises. Just more of the same as we've been seeing. Is it my imagination, or are virtually ALL of the really great coins in hiding?

Coinosaurus

I guess it depends on what you mean by "great". There are a few good things for me, even though I am fairly specialized. But if there are only 5-10 examples of a certain coin you are willing to accept, you can't expect to see them in every sale

What was more interesting to me was the sheer volume of the combined sales. If this is all for real, we should start seeing some more auction houses coming to the party.

wayneherndon

We have to buy all these first then they pull out the good stuff.

WH

tradedollarnut

Prices have to go higher before the really good stuff comes out?



A lot of great coins are quietly trading privately. The owners use the auction venue as a threat ... as in "if you pass I'll put it into auction and you may not get it". Buyers still feel the market hasn't topped, so they step up. Perhaps the first sign of a market top will be when the buyers stop stepping up privately and the really good stuff does indeed become apparent in auction?????

RYK

I do not have anywhere near the experience as the guys who have already posted to this thread. But, is it possible that we have become a bit jaded by all the great coins that have come out in the last year or two? I mean, what's left? 1964 Peace Dollar? 1870-S $3? 1849 $20?

tradedollarnut

True. It's hard to argue with this list:

Gem Chain cent
Gem proof 1867 rays shield nickel
Gem 1794 half dime
1870-S half dime
Gem 1796 dime
1873-CC no arrows dime
Branch mint proof 1875-S twenty cent pieces
1876-CC twenty cent pieces
Gem 1796 quarter
Proof 1823/2 quarter
1827 quarter restrike
Gem 1797 half
Specimen 1796 half
Choice 1796 half
1853-O no arrows half
Several near unique Gobrecht patterns
1870-S dollar
several 1884 trade dollars
1885 trade dollar

sheesh... I'm tired and I haven't even made it to the gold yet!

MrEureka

several 1884 trade dollars
1885 trade dollar

TDN - You really think those deserve to be on the list???

tradedollarnut

Grrrrrrrrrr.

michael

andy you make a really good point

90% of the certified usa coins in the ana auctions are just that

average stuff/retread coins

and this is not bad or good!

but less than 5% of the auctions are really great extraspecial extraordinary coins


michael

Lakesammman

I wrote a throw-away article a few years ago about IHC collections 65R or finer. There are only a handful that can be completed and there are quite a few people trying to do it. The real set stopper is the 1886 Ty2, the relative stoppers the 1872 and 1871. I've noticed over the last 6-12 months that "properly graded" 65 and 66R IHC's are getting really hard to come by. It's been at least 6 months since I've been offered one that I would want to own. To me, this suggests that truly nice coins (at least IHC's and FE's) are still being tightly held and it would appear that the average coins are still being churned.

Andy, you would know better than I re: patterns. The patterns I like to buy are scarce. Used to be fairly common to find MS/P65 or better small cents. Lately, it's all 64 or worse. Is it your impression that nicer patterns are also being locked up/tightly held??

MrEureka

Is it your impression that nicer patterns are also being locked up/tightly held?

Very much so.

Zulan

Like it makes a difference to the majority of collectors who cannot touch that level of coin anyway. Lets see, shelter or coin... hmmmmmm

MrEureka

Lets see, shelter or coin... hmmmmmm

I'd go for the coin.

Elcontador

Lots of Chain & 1794 Cents in the Heritage Auction. Ditto re 1927 S Quarters and a bunch of othe stuff that I can't afford, like a Draped Bust Half in MS 63. There's also an interesting looking Bust $ in AU 55 which has been cleaned, dipped and retoned (Bust $s don't look like that; some late dated Seated material does). ANR has an original Bust $ on which I might bid.

The one lot that interested me is already bid higher than I think it's worth. I don't know whether it's a real or a shill bid. I guess this means more $ for my upcoming vacation & on home improvements.

291fifth

"Great coins" means different things to different people. To the "billionaire", ego driven collectors, great coins are those that are finest known and carry huge price tags. To ordinary collectors, "great coins" can mean a nice problem-free original high circulated grade type coin that the "billionaire" collectors, or the dealers that cater to them, wouldn't be bothered with.

darktone

<< <i>"Great coins" means different things to different people. To the "billionaire", ego driven collectors, great coins are those that are finest known and carry huge price tags. To ordinary collectors, "great coins" can mean a nice problem-free original high circulated grade type coin that the "billionaire" collectors, or the dealers that cater to them, wouldn't be bothered with. >>

I agree. The great coins that were mentioned are nice but really mean little to me as I could not afford them 10-20 years ago and I can't afford them now. mike

keets

............from Webster's:

Great Coin---a hyped ultra-rarity that few can afford and which has little "same issue" to be compared to for an accyurate judgement as to it's breathtakingness. please note that there are exceptions.

al h.

tradedollarnut

To the "billionaire", ego driven collectors, great coins are those that are finest known and carry huge price tags.

When I was young and poor and just getting started in coin collecting, my Grandfather told me to 'always buy the best'. I know many collectors of more modest means than myself who buy the best examples they can for their collections. Could it be that people of wealth aren't necessarily driven by ego, as you state, but rather the desire to own the best they can afford - just like most other coin collectors of any financial status?

Isn't it funny how it always seems that those who are better off than you have motives different than your own?

MrEureka

Isn't it funny how it always seems that those who are better off than you have motives different than your own?

Cute, and true.

As for "What is a great coin?", I'll add that it is not necessarily mega-grade or mega-value. Yes, a perfectly original gem XF 1904-S half dollar is a great coin. Yes, a dramatically triple struck gem early date Jefferson nickel is a great coin. Yes, a superbly toned super gem 1971-D Ike is a great coin. Even a choice VF 1866 nickel with a giant cud can be a great coin. A great coin is one that has the power to astound, regardless of price range.

It doesn't take a billionaire to buy great coins. It takes knowledge, persistence, passion, luck and friends in the field.

puff

>>Could it be that people of wealth aren't necessarily driven by ego, as you state, but rather the desire to own the best they can afford - just like most other coin collectors of any financial status?<<

Well said TDN.

>>It doesn't take a billionaire to buy great coins. It takes knowledge, persistence, passion, luck and friends in the field.<<

And one could always use more of the above Andy.

UncleJoe

Beauty (great) is in the eye of the beholder.

What I think a previous poster was trying to point out was you started this thread stating that there were no (or few) "great" coins in the $40-50 million dollars worth in the various catalogs. I agree that boggles my mind as to what your definition of "great" is.

For me, one of much more modest means, a "great" coin is an original circulated silver coin. I can certainly "afford" better quality coins but I choose not to purchase them as they do nothing for me.

I agree with MrEureka that some of the "lesser" coins given as examples can also be "great" but seriously how many times have you seen these are others like them or even "lesser" coins in catalogs or at auction (not eBay)?

Joe.

BigMoose

TDN and MrEureka, I agree with you both completely. Very well said!

291fifth

Are 1913 Liberty nickels "great" coins? To me they not a coins at all. They are a midnight mint product. The same can be said for some of the "made for people with connections" issues of the 1850's-70's era.

Nysoto

The 1796 and 1797 draped bust, small eagle half dollars have come out in force this year from the huge price increases on these, everything from problem AG's to the Norweb/Koshkarian @ $966,000. There are probably as many small eagles on the market this year as the underrated 1802 half.

The selection of 1801-1807 draped bust heraldic eagle halves at this years ANA auction is poor, with a few nice high grade coins, but no R.5-R.7 rarity varieties. Last years ANA was great for this series, with many rarities. I managed to buy 4 at last year's auctions, but I will pass this year. The Pre-turban variety rarities are in strong hands, and price increases will not bring them out.

Good comments by Andy and TDN. One of the coins I bought at auction at last years ANA was an 1805 O.109a NGC EF45 @ $1380, definately within the top 3 for the variety, which is tougher than the R.3 rarity indicates. Not a great coin to the masses, but for the few who specialize in DBHE halves by die variety, it is a great coin and a bargain for a condition census early half dollar. Since there are no "pops" given for varieties (except NGC, but incomplete), catalogers often do not know when they have a condition census variety.

Edit - The pages of this years ANA catalogues are filled with registry sets being sold. Why are people selling their registry sets, after having them a few short years?

flaminio

<< <i>Edit - The pages of this years ANA catalogues are filled with registry sets being sold. Why are people selling their registry sets, after having them a few short years? >>

For many people, the thrill of collecting is in the chase. Once you've completed the set, it's time to move on to the next adventure.