Whats the chances ?

100proof1957

what do you all suppose are the chances that a 2nd or 3rd tier grading service coin would come back from PCGS or NGC @ only 2 grades lower ?
EX: proof 70 lincoln SGS,comes back pr68 or 68 cam.

Proof

kieferscoins

Depends on a coin by coin bais. There is no set guidelines you can go by.

Cameron Kiefer

airplanenut

For an SGS coin... two grades lower would be pretty good.

Gonfunko

Pretty good, assuming it's a modern. I reckon ICG might be right giving out so many 70's to moderns - The mint has the proof production down to a near science now. I think PCGS doesn't give many just because they don't want to be hit with grade guarantee payments. A pre-modern, well, the third or fourth tier services don't grade many of them, and usually give 65. They're probably 63's. So, I'd say the chances are good that a coin "graded" by a third or fourth tier service would onyl come back 2 or 3 points lower.

PCBUM

<For an SGS coin... two grades lower would be pretty good.>

airplanenut

<< <i> A pre-modern, well, the third or fourth tier services don't grade many of them, and usually give 65. >>

I wouldn't say that... oftentimes, the third tiers not only over grade, but also grade coins with problems. Any coin that has value shouldn't be in one of those holders--if it is, you should wonder why.

100proof1957

i guess the real ? would be.
looking at pix via Teletrade or Fleabay,whats the chances of making a coin via PCGS or NGC that would be worthy of keeping ?
not moderns,50's proofs.
should i just ignore the PCI,ICG,SEGS,blah blah blah,coins and look at the big 2 or 3 ?
i do suppose if i had the time and went to some shows i could cherry pick some coins,i aint blind ?
opinions ?

Proof

Myqqy

should i just ignore the PCI,ICG,SEGS,blah blah blah,coins and look at the big 2 or 3 ?

Depends on how adventrous you are and how well you know the series that you are looking to buy from. The way I look at TPG's is that each comes with a certain risk/reward ratio, and that ratio also fluctuates with the particular series I'm looking at. If you can afford to lose some money comfortably and like to look for cherrypicking opportunities- then look at everything and learn how to grade with consistency...

airplanenut

If you want coins worth keeping, then buy the coins, not the plastic.

It's likely that a proof in a third tier holder will be overgraded--that goes IGC and down, as ICG is quite loose on the proofs. In person, buy what you like. On eBay, if it's a generic coin and grade is that important, buy the plastic.

100proof1957

the grade is very important to what im doing.
just dont want to pay 50 bucks for a $10 coin
if i pay 40 for a 30 coin i can live with it.
cherry picking is about buying a 300 coin for 100-200
please keep in mind im a collector not an investor,just wanting the most bang for my buck !

Proof

jbsteven

I had a NTC 66DMPL Morgan come back 65DMPL from PCGS. Depends on the coin.

Placid

80-1.