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So...how rare are 1794 dollars, really? (Warning...dry statistics to follow)
cardinal
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1794 dollars have been receiving a lot of press lately, more collectors (and board members) are inquiring about 1794 dollars, and more specimens seem to have come up for auction this year than the last 10 years combined.
So, the question is, how rare are they really? I believe I do have some genuine empirical data to help provide the answer.
Early dollars in general and 1794 dollars in particular have been an interest of mine for more than 10 years now. In addition to working to put together a collection of early dollars, I have also been assembling a library of auction catalogs. In building the library, I've specifically sought out catalogs with strong early dollar listings, and I've looked to acquire EVERY catalog that contains a 1794 dollar.
Including auction catalogs dating from the 1860's to 2004, my library now exceeds 2000 catalogs and fixed price lists, totalling over a quarter-million pages and listing more than 5 million lots. So, you're probably asking yourself, out of those 5 million listings, how many were for 1794 dollars?
Precisely 368! That represents less than 0.007% of the population, and, admittedly, that population is already biased to create the greatest degree of likelihood of containing early dollars.
Realizing that some coins appear at auction more than once, I have carefully reviewed each auction lot description and image (when included) and matched things up to identify as many of the duplicate listings as possible. Indeed, some specimens have appeared at auction more than once. For example, the SEGS-AU58 specimen last appearing in the Heritage May, 2004 CSNS auction (lot #7928) has now come to auction 9 times, including 7 appearances within the last 10 years.
After eliminating the duplicates, how many distinct specimens can be traced? Only 131.
Of those, six have since been acquired by museums and other public organizations, so only 125 are left for private collectors (plus some number of specimens never traded publicly and thus not included in my survey). Of those, most display weakness of strike, heavy adjustment marks, and planchet problems to some degree. Many specimens bear noticeable post-striking impairments, such as grafitti, holes filled in, details re-engraved, whizzing, etc.
So, how many have become sufficiently impaired that they would be considered "problem" coins (i.e., ignoring light cleanings and handling marks that do not trigger body bags from the services)? By my count, 56.
That leaves only 69 reasonably unimpaired specimens -- or about one one-thousandth of one percent (0.001%) of my survey population.
You'll notice that even with escalating prices, very few of the unimpaired specimens have been coming to market publicly. Clearly the owners of those realize their rarity and are holding on. Multiple impaired specimens have been coming to market, and they have been selling for very strong prices. Clearly, the new owners recognize them for what they are -- genuine specimens of a popular classic rarity, available at prices far lower than their details-grade would command otherwise.
Here are some pricing statistics:
Impaired Specimens--
Heritage 1/29/04, Lot #6206, Fine details, holed, plugged, repaired, tooled, whizzed and artificially toned -- 19 separate bidders, realized $37,950.
Heritage 5/7/04, Lot #7927, VF details, tooling to strengthen lower left obverse stars and upper left reverse lettering, reasonably natural looking for a VF coin -- 9 separate bidders, realized $86,250.
Heritage 5/7/04, Lot #7928, SEGS-AU58, porous planchet with deep flaws, tooled, cleaned and artificially toned (and FAR less attractive than its January, 1996 auction appearance) -- 10 separate bidders, realized $115,000.
Unimpaired specimens --
By comparison, recently (2004) reported private sales of unimpaired specimens include one PCGS-VF20 trading wholesale at $120,000, one PCGS-VF35 offered at $140,000, 2 PCGS XF-40 coins trading wholesale at $180,000, and one PCGS-AU53 trading at $350,000. In addition, the "Richmond Collection" specimen, graded NGC-XF45 (formerly PCGS-XF40), to be auctioned this fall is being reported at a pre-sale estimate of $175,000.
Whew! Enough statistics for one thread! For those wanting more statistics, you'll have to wait for my book (due out for the Pittsburgh ANA). And, yes, it will contain pictures and the auction history for all of the 131 known specimens!
Good luck to all who are thinking of bidding on the 1794's coming up!
-- Cardinal
So, the question is, how rare are they really? I believe I do have some genuine empirical data to help provide the answer.
Early dollars in general and 1794 dollars in particular have been an interest of mine for more than 10 years now. In addition to working to put together a collection of early dollars, I have also been assembling a library of auction catalogs. In building the library, I've specifically sought out catalogs with strong early dollar listings, and I've looked to acquire EVERY catalog that contains a 1794 dollar.
Including auction catalogs dating from the 1860's to 2004, my library now exceeds 2000 catalogs and fixed price lists, totalling over a quarter-million pages and listing more than 5 million lots. So, you're probably asking yourself, out of those 5 million listings, how many were for 1794 dollars?
Precisely 368! That represents less than 0.007% of the population, and, admittedly, that population is already biased to create the greatest degree of likelihood of containing early dollars.
Realizing that some coins appear at auction more than once, I have carefully reviewed each auction lot description and image (when included) and matched things up to identify as many of the duplicate listings as possible. Indeed, some specimens have appeared at auction more than once. For example, the SEGS-AU58 specimen last appearing in the Heritage May, 2004 CSNS auction (lot #7928) has now come to auction 9 times, including 7 appearances within the last 10 years.
After eliminating the duplicates, how many distinct specimens can be traced? Only 131.
Of those, six have since been acquired by museums and other public organizations, so only 125 are left for private collectors (plus some number of specimens never traded publicly and thus not included in my survey). Of those, most display weakness of strike, heavy adjustment marks, and planchet problems to some degree. Many specimens bear noticeable post-striking impairments, such as grafitti, holes filled in, details re-engraved, whizzing, etc.
So, how many have become sufficiently impaired that they would be considered "problem" coins (i.e., ignoring light cleanings and handling marks that do not trigger body bags from the services)? By my count, 56.
That leaves only 69 reasonably unimpaired specimens -- or about one one-thousandth of one percent (0.001%) of my survey population.
You'll notice that even with escalating prices, very few of the unimpaired specimens have been coming to market publicly. Clearly the owners of those realize their rarity and are holding on. Multiple impaired specimens have been coming to market, and they have been selling for very strong prices. Clearly, the new owners recognize them for what they are -- genuine specimens of a popular classic rarity, available at prices far lower than their details-grade would command otherwise.
Here are some pricing statistics:
Impaired Specimens--
Heritage 1/29/04, Lot #6206, Fine details, holed, plugged, repaired, tooled, whizzed and artificially toned -- 19 separate bidders, realized $37,950.
Heritage 5/7/04, Lot #7927, VF details, tooling to strengthen lower left obverse stars and upper left reverse lettering, reasonably natural looking for a VF coin -- 9 separate bidders, realized $86,250.
Heritage 5/7/04, Lot #7928, SEGS-AU58, porous planchet with deep flaws, tooled, cleaned and artificially toned (and FAR less attractive than its January, 1996 auction appearance) -- 10 separate bidders, realized $115,000.
Unimpaired specimens --
By comparison, recently (2004) reported private sales of unimpaired specimens include one PCGS-VF20 trading wholesale at $120,000, one PCGS-VF35 offered at $140,000, 2 PCGS XF-40 coins trading wholesale at $180,000, and one PCGS-AU53 trading at $350,000. In addition, the "Richmond Collection" specimen, graded NGC-XF45 (formerly PCGS-XF40), to be auctioned this fall is being reported at a pre-sale estimate of $175,000.
Whew! Enough statistics for one thread! For those wanting more statistics, you'll have to wait for my book (due out for the Pittsburgh ANA). And, yes, it will contain pictures and the auction history for all of the 131 known specimens!
Good luck to all who are thinking of bidding on the 1794's coming up!
-- Cardinal
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Comments
Wish I could buy an early dollar, but at this point they are a little too expensive. (or I have to save my money for a year, and buy nothing else. That's way to hard for me)
Dennis
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Thanks Cardinal for all your efforts. While most here could probably never afford a 1794, I for one love to hear that stats. It only makes me appreciate these coins even more.
Michael
Also, have you used any information compiled by Jack Collins, who I believe put out a book or a manuscript on the 1794 Dollar several years ago?
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Don
jim
siliconvalleycoins.com
Thanks Cardinal for the info.
I will also be looking forward to your book.
Summer ANA,here I come.
Brian
U.S. Nickels Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
U.S. Dimes Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
will you be accepting pre-release orders for your book here?
I'd certainly be interested in getting on the list for one (signed?) if at all possible.
Keep on postin'
Tom
Thats sad,
Ray
Capped Bust Half Series
Capped Bust Half Dime Series
Dan
mcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu">dmcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu
As BigMoose mentioned, Jack Collins performed extensive research into 1794 dollars. He prepared a complete manuscript intended for publication, and he provided a great amount of information to Dave Bowers for inclusion in Bowers' 1993 Silver Dollar Encyclopedia. Based on Bowers' references, the Collins manuscript was due to be published very shortly after Bowers' Encylopedia. However, Collins passed away several years ago, leaving his manuscript unpublished, and based on some comments from a numismatist who happens to have a copy, it seems unlikely that it will be published at any time in the near future.
Having a key interest in 1794 dollars, myself, (and wanting to figure out the pedigree of the 1794 dollar I own) I would have very much liked to have seen the manuscript published when originally intended 10 years ago. Since that work was not available, I was forced to do all the research on my own to find out what I was looking for. Now after years of searching through auction catalogs and price listings, I've put together my own picture of the population of 1794 dollars, and that will soon be published. I will let the board members know when it is finished at the printer, but it will certainly be available at the ANA in Pittsburgh. (In the meantime, I'm working to get authorizations from the auction houses to use their coin images in the book.)
tjkillian asked about the comparisons to auction lot totals. My idea in making that comparison was to show how rare 1794 dollars are in relation to the whole body of coins that someone may choose to collect. As far as the original production was concerned, Mint records report that the total (net) mintage of 1794 dollars consisted of 1758 specimens.
In Bowers' Encyclopedia, he discusses the survival rates of early dollars, the original mintage figures and the estimated remaining populations. Using the averages of Bowers' estimates of the remaining populations for all varieties of early dollars, there is a total estimated remaining population of 60,411 specimens -- 1794 to 1803 combined. Mint records reflect 1,438,566 total coined, so the computed aggregate survival rate for ALL early dollars would be approximately 4.2%. Bowers reasons that the earlier years' mintage would have a somewhat lesser survival rate than the average, and the final year's mintage would have a somewhat greater survival rate. On that basis, he expects the survival rate for 1795 dollars to be approximately 3.3%.
So, if 1794 dollars were viewed as no more important than 1795 dollars over the years, only 3.3% would survive -- amounting to 59 specimens. The fact that 131 distinct specimens can now be traced means that 1794 dollars were regarded highly early on, and, consequently, they were saved even when in such a low grade or damaged condition that any other coin would have simply been turned in for bullion. Also, since we're already accounting for more than 200% of the normally-expected survival rate, we would expect that there are not that many other specimens still out there and unaccounted for.
--Cardinal
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
you said you would never buy a repaired coin or damaged one. Many of the 1794 $ are just that, and some of them are so obviously repaired, they look stupid. BUT STILL GO FOR $80,000 PLUS. The 1794 Dollar is not as rare as many coins (Proof or Circulated), but it's mystery, place in history, and beauty keep it at increasing threw-the-roof prices. Many want to own one in their lifetime. I cant wait for Cardinal's book. it is the only coin I would buy impaired one way or another. Two of mine are, one isnt (smile).
Anyway, about those two SEGS AU58's. I have seen both. First one, lot #7928 from Milwaukee show early May, seems to have gotten a bad rap from Cardinal. I thought the details were strikingly clear. Some corrosion, I guess that is what they are saying, in and around the coin, but hardly noticable without a glass. I didnt see any tooling or repairing, and the only other flaws were the planchet trouble (which you can spot on the eye area, and neck). BOTH the AU 58's show cleaning, proof with the noticable color difference around the stars vs. the rest of the surfaces without any imprint. The second AU58's STRIKE IS NOT NEARLY AS SHARP. THE FIRST ONE (#7928) HAS CLEAR DATE LETTERING, WITH TYPICAL WEAK LEFT STARS, BUT THE SECOND ONE WEAK DATE IMPRINT (OR WEAR). Another piece of info I have noticed: I find it hard to pay so much more for a PCGS (I have one though) vs. not for the lower graded 1794 when you can only make out part of the date. Who wants to pay so much more just because it is in a PCGS holder, (Yes I know they are picky on choosing to grade or not) and you can only see the 4 sometimes!! (Look at past auctions). IMO.
10 bid up to the reserve on #7928's AU58 SEGS. Sold 7 times in the past 10 years? Someone will always want these beauties. It will be interesting to see if the one AU58 SEGS at Heritage now will meet the reserve. The other three are just ragged, IMO. Prices on these are going up, as with most everything else. That is why you are going to see most of the classic rarites that were hidden for years, come out of the woodwork...
Is the book out?? If so, how can I acquire a copy?
I've owned my 1794 dollar since 1982, when it was in Spinks's Carnegie sale in NYC. It now reposes in a PCGS VF20 holder, and is one of the centerpieces of my collection.
I looked the info on the 1794 dollar in Jules Reiver new early silver dollar book. He reports 1758 1794 dollar were struck with 2 patterns struck in copper. It would be amazing to see a pattern of an incredibly rare coin. Reiver estimates only 25 to 50 1794 dollars remain based on communications with other collectors. Cardinal, you have done a much more through job in documenting the survivors.
FrederickCoinClub
I'll probably never own a 1794, but I am going to buy your book just because I think your research is really kewl.
I am very pleased to announce that the new 1794 Dollar book has been published. The title is: The Flowing Hair Silver Dollars of 1794: An Historical and Population Census Study. The book totals 212 pages, containing nearly 200 separate images (well...nearly 400 if you count coin obverses and reverses separately), and discusses the historical background of 1794 dollars as well accounting for every individual specimen that I could positively identify.
The first printing of the first edition will be released at the Pittsburgh ANA show later this month, and ultimately it will get posted in its entirety on the EarlyDollars.org website.
Here are a few previews:
(Now why can't PCGS put out a grading book that has similar quality photos, instead of the dot matrix photos contained in its second edition?)
Any chance those of us that can't get to Pennsylvania can place a pre-order for a hard copy? I'd certainly be interested in expanding my library with that work of art.
The Cardinal Collection Educational Foundation?
Are you going to Pittsburgh?
Keep my copy of the book aside for me. Where on the floor are they going to be sold?
Oh also, how much for the book?
Thanks for sharing the info with us.
Looks like I won't get getting one for my collection anytime soon.
Dennis
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Truly a great thread.
So now you know why cardinal likes THE 1794 Specimen silver dollar! He no longer has to concern himself with dry statistics!