Numismatic Facts of Life

Askari

A link to a 2001 article by David Hall was recently posted over on the Liteside that I thought y'all might find very interesting. It was called, naturally enough, The Numismatic Facts of Life. Much of it is excellent, although I'd quibble on various aspects of Nos. 6 & 7 in particular. Do note though, that even in these areas, what he writes is much more true for rare U.S. coins than for Darkside coins in general. What he says about taking the middle ground between accumulating/collecting and short-term market investing is dead on.

MacCrimmon

<< <i>Never buy non-certified coins. There's simply no reason to do this. - - Fact of Life #7 - HRH >>

Huh! Guess I shouldn't have risked buying these raw Swissies!

1 21303427 1908 B 1 Rap SWISS SP66RD
2 21303428 1914 B 2 Rap SWISS MS66RD
3 21303429 1932 B 2 Rap SWISS MS66RD
4 21303430 1934 B 2 Rap SWISS SP66RD
5 21303431 1938 B 2 Rap SWISS SP66RD
6 21303432 1894 B 5 Rap SWISS MS67
7 21303433 1902 B 5 Rap SWISS MS66
8 21303434 1922 B 5 Rap SWISS MS66
9 21303435 1928 B 5 Rap SWISS SP67
10 21303436 1946 B 5 Rap SWISS SP67
11 21303437 1953 B 5 Rap SWISS SP68
12 21303438 1871 B 10 Rap SWISS MS65
13 21303439 1909 B 10 Rap SWISS SP68
14 21303440 1938 B 10 Rap SWISS SP67
15 21303441 1936 B 20 Rap SWISS SP67
16 21303442 1953 B 20 Rap SWISS SP67
17 21303443 1945 B 1/2 Fr SWISS SP67
18 21303444 1903 B 1 Fr SWISS MS66

-------------------------------------------------------------

1 30048266 1888 B 2 Rap SWISS MS66RD
2 30048267 1904 B 10 Rap SWISS SP68
3 30048268 1899 B 1 Fr SWISS MS67
4 30048269 1908 B 1 Fr SWISS MS67
5 30048270 1913 B 1 Fr SWISS MS66
6 30048271 1931 B 1 Fr SWISS MS66
7 30048272 1934 B 1 Fr SWISS MS66
8 30048273 1946 B 2 Fr SWISS SP66
9 30048274 1913 B 2 Fr SWISS MS66
10 30048275 1949 B 5 Fr SWISS SP67
11 30048276 1911 B 20 Fr SWISS MS65

Hey, I must be the luckiest Scotsman alive!! I guess I'll quit while I'm ahead!!

Lloyd

OMG ... I was a little concerned when he said about never buying uncertified coins. But when I came to Fact number 6..... "PCGS IS THE GRADING STANDARD FOR THE RARE COIN INDUSTRY".

"You can't beat the dealer". Right here's three coins sitting side by side that you can all buy on line at this minute and double your money.... It's from a very reputable and knowledgeable British dealer who's been in the business since the 60's.

I'll post the link in a few minutes.

Lloyd

Lloyd

Top Three Coins....

Dealer Beaten



EDIT TO ADD: There's probably 50 on this list. And this is the most overpriced UK based list. Note especially the halfpenny section:

Ingram

E1223 1757 Forgery F VERY RARE £17.50
(weighs 5.3g)
E1234 1775 Forgery GFair-NF unusual £11.00

These sold for a combined total of £467

Dealer Beaten (with a vengeance(

If I was a real dealer I'd be telling you you can't beat the dealer too....

L

Philip

Hey, McCrimmon, some of us people have a weak heart over here

SYRACUSIAN

Mac, how can you tell if a raw Swiss coin is a specimen ? Do you submit it as such, or do you expect pcgs to determine if it's a specimen?

And since we're at it, I've invaded your dominion. toned 1920 1 fr. MS65


reedited a few times

WhiteTornado

Well, of course he's going to say that PCGS is the industry standard. I wouldn't necessarily agree with that statement all the time, however. That all goes back to the notion of buying the coin, not the holder.

And #7, "never buy non-certified coins", points to the larger problem I experience when collecting Liteside. That is, many collectors automatically assume all Liteside collectors are going for high-grade UNCs or at least ultra-rarities (1877 Indian Head Cent, 1916-D Merc, etc.). It may come as a shock to Mr. Hall and others that there are those of us with limited budgets who get excited about buying $5 and $10 coins!

1jester

"I guess I'll quit while I'm ahead!!" --Mighty Mouse

You do that, sir!!!



Mr. Hall must have skipped logical reasoning courses while in college. How could PCGS stay in business if everybody only bought sl*bbed coins???

ajaan

Great point jester. Everybody buy certified coins and no one submit to PCGS.

Askari

Actually, what he says about buying only certified coins and that the PCGS label gives top value applies well to rare U.S. coins. Remember, the Liteside market is so "hyper" that cleaning, whizzing, doctoring, cracking out, etc. are major aspects of "the game." If I was to buy a rare U.S. coin from anyone I didn't know very well, I'd want it slabbed and preferably in a PCGS coffin as well. (I can remedy that aspect later.)

I did have to laugh at the statement that you can't beat the dealer. They say that in Vegas, too, don't they (and eject you from the house if you succeed consistently)? For that to be true, dealers would have to be omnipotent, and -- with the possible exception of Mr. Hall aside -- that's not the case. Cherrypicking wouldn't be such an art if his assertion would be true. What is probably more correct is that you can't beat the dealer's need to make a profit over the short term and the long run. Those pressures can even force a dealer to "lose money" on a sale to get the cash to buy other coins he thinks will move better. That's one of the reasons Darkside coins have been such a sleeper value-wise for such a long time. US coin dealers simply didn't know the value of their stock nor did they have much of a clientele who'd buy them. Every week it seems, somebody here is showing off the items they cherrypicked out of the "junk box".

The main reason I posted this, though, was for his comments emphasizing pursuit of value and not trying to short-term speculate so much. Long-term "investing" is always more profitable over the long run than speculating. Being focused on building your set and buying the best you can afford, rarities first, is the most successful approach to building an outstanding set, whatever your means.

WhiteTornado

True, Mark, on the comments mainly applying to the high-grade and truly rare Liteside items. Also, I have to say that Mr. Hall at least takes the proper attitude, that coin collecting is enjoyable. I've come across too many dealers who only seemed to be in it for the money.

Clankeye

I think his comments about finding a focus to your collecting are good.

When I read of people just casting about throwing their money at different things on the liteside or the darkside, it makes me feel a little nervous for them.

Everytime I have decided on and put together sets of coins--for whatever reason--it has helped narrow down the search, and I think provided a good platform from which to learn about numismatics, markets... and people, as a whole.

Clankeye

hookedoncoins2

Not a bad article. I disagree on a few points, but for the most part I think he did a good job.

The only thing that I think is total BS is:



<< <i>Strategy: Buy PCGS graded coins exclusively. There is simply no reason why you should buy non-PCGS graded coins. If a dealer has a coin you want and it's graded by grading service other than PCGS, ask the dealer to have the coin graded by PCGS. If the coin is as good as he says it is, he shouldn't have a problem doing this. If you buy non-PCGS graded coins, you are running the risk of getting less than you paid for. This is a financial risk you do not need to take. >>



I used to buy into this kind of PCGS propoganda when I was doing their registry. Then I realized that PCGS is rather hit or miss sometimes with grading and there are nice coins in other holders (as well as raw if I am familiar with the coin) as well.

-Jarrett Roberts

laurentyvan

Askari, when he says "you can't beat the dealer", you know it means that on balance, (but with plenty of exceptions) you can't beat the dealer.
Las Vegas will, averaging out, always take your money (with exceptions). Yes?

Fact: Rare coins are superbly performing long term assets that have many collateral financial benefits.
Nothing wrong with the above statement but please add this important caveat:only if you buy the right coin

Right coins, right grade, right price, no problems. Anybody see anyone buying rare coins without these qualifications on E-Bay?

cladking

<< <i>

<< <i>Never buy non-certified coins. There's simply no reason to do this. - - Fact of Life #7 - HRH >>

Huh! Guess I shouldn't have risked buying these raw Swissies!

.................................................... ...

Hey, I must be the luckiest Scotsman alive!! I guess I'll quit while I'm ahead!!

>>



Great thread.

Wow! A lot of these are really tough coins even in typical unc.

You can beat the dealer even in the short term if he has a large and diverse stock. The
only real advantage he has is that he knows what he paid but by his acceptance and rejection
of offers you can soon get a good feel for what he paid and then it's just a matter of buying
all the items he paid too little for. Certainly it's true that time is the collector's friend and the
dealer's enemy.

Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.

coinkat

Numismatics covers alot of territory... unfortunately, no TPG covers it all. While DH makes many helpful comments, and perhaps some of his comments can apply to world coins too. Rarity is the key. And there is a difference between rarity and condition rarity with respect to world coins.

MacCrimmon

<< <i> Mac, how can you tell if a raw Swiss coin is a specimen ? Do you submit it as such, or do you expect pcgs to determine if it's a specimen? >>


Dimitri, The primary diagnostic on Swiss specimen strikings are the fields, and the strike quality, i.e., is the strike full? But the primary giveaway are the fields which should be deeply to moderately mirrored depending on how many blanks were coined with that set of dies (usually there is only one set per given year - more on that later). The other primary characteristic to the mirrors are the presence of a great multitude of very fine, wispy die-polish marks. The devices can be nicely cameoed, but not always. They will also usually have broader, more well defoned rims; much as you would see with a US proof.

I have seen Swiss coins though that were slabbed as MS which have the numerous die polish mark characteristic. So, the logical question is, did the Bern mint use the Specimen dies after completing the years orders for collectors and banks, or do true first-strike MS coins also have this diagnostic but with less deeply polished dies? Secondarily then, always look for a strike which is very full.

As to the second part of your question; yes, I do write 'SP' for Specimen (Proof) on the submission form. However, if someone here finds a nice Specimen and submits it as simply Unz, not knowing, you could expect a better than 90% chance that PCGS would correct the error. I'm told they have a grading set for these Swiss, probably due to the fact that Hall once collected them quite extensively as I understand.

Now, to the other question in my mind......how many die pairs were employed in a given year, and how many specimens were struck off for each denomination. The quick answer is we don't definitely know presently, but work is being done in this area on both questions. We can fairly well estimate these numbers from auction appearances and other records which are available. For instance, the 1904 10 Rappen Specimen in the list is most probably the finest known of 5 specimens which have been uniquely traced......so, it's a very rare coin but unfortunately not worth north of a million bucks like the 1913 Lib......ah well, maybe someday! It now resides in a famous European cabinet.

For those new here, the most common Specimen-strikings are the silver WWII era issues. These 1/2, 1, & 2 franc Speicmens were minted in the range of about 200-300 or so, The bronze, cu-ni, and nickel (20 rp.) issues are actually harder to find and I believe much more rare on the whole. Add to this the fact that copper doesn't hold up so well in the atmosphere, and you understand the survivorship of speck-carbon free examples is very low indeed. The collector base in Switz. doesn't seem to be that great in the last half of the 20th c., so since these Specimens were pretty much 'made-to-order', they are truly the ones to nab, if they can be found. Expect no more than 30-40 examples of any given denom pre-1900.

Well, that's my 2 rappens, as it were.

wybrit

Excellent thread and interesting article. It is easy to pick apart the exceptions to the "facts of life" and I think the prior posts have covered that ground.

The key takeaway is to have a goal and to buy the best grade coin possible. I stumbled on the first goal quite by accident because I realized the limitations of collecting British coins before Queen Victoria. Her 64 years worth of coin dates will take more than a lifetime to amass, to say nothing of 20th century predecimal. About ten years ago at a coin show in Denver, a world coin dealer gave me that old advice "buy the best grade coin you possibly can." I still hear that advice every time I look at a coin.

I used to collect VF/EF until I stopped at that table that fateful day. I now know that VF/low EF is the absolute worst grade range to collect, whether or not investment is one of the objectives, unless the coins are very scarce or rare. This middle grade range is uninteresting to those seeking the best specimens and yet is too expensive for young collectors looking to fill holes in a Whitman folder.

Aethelred

Good reply Wybrit. I began collecting English along with Scottish and Irish coins at about age 14. For many years I would buy any coin that I happened across that graded F or better. In the process, I added a lot of nic ecoins to my collection, but also ended up with a lot of things that I was not really happy with. I reached the point where it hit me that I had a lot of coins, but not many to be really proud of. I decided that I would sell off everything that I was not 100% pleased with unless it had some sentimental value. At the same time I decided that in order to build the kind of collection I really wanted that I would need to narrow my focus. Everything Scottish and Irish went and I decided that a superb George III type set was my ticket. I ended up keeping only about 20% of the collection. Although I went a little too far in some cases and perhaps not far enough (yet) in others, I have been very happy with the result. It is far better to buy ten heavy hitters a year than twenty ho-hum coins a month. After having worked at a coin shop full-time for over six months now, I have seen a lot of collections. There are those that have box after box of coins that we see every day and are clearly very random collections and there are those which may only have a few dozen coins, but every coin is a superb, well selected example. The latter is what always sticks out in my mind!

MacCrimmon

<< <i>The key takeaway is to have a goal and to buy the best grade coin possible. >>

Exactly. My philosophy and I'm sticking to it. From the standpoint of my Victorian Type set, nothing below an MS65 will make me happy, and that's with the nearly impossible to obtain gold save for the fivers maybe. My poor old pocketbook is all that holds me back!! But frankly, I would rather save and plot for two years to get just the perfect specimen than to settle for a lesser coin....but hey, that's just me.

To wit, I have a few baubles on the way that have taken this poor old church mouse quite some time to secure.........ah, waiting can often be sweet!

MacCrimmon

<< <i>Wow! A lot of these are really tough coins even in typical unc. >>

Thanks cladking! I think I'm going to raise my prices based on your assessment!!

Actually, the dollar deval. vs. the Euro is forcing the prices of uncs. upward for now. Otherwise, the usual Swiss stability is in effect.

1jester

Definitely a first-rate thread.

Although I've been a numismatist for well over 25 years, I still consider myself a relative novice. THere's so much to learn.

I guess one thing I've begun to learn lately, although I've always known of the tenet, is to collect the finest example you can find and afford. I suppose for me the "afford" part has always held me back, given the many interesting collecting directions you can have. So, to echo the other sages, I'd say the second thing that's important is to try to limit your focus. I have to say I've not been very good at that, always having wanted nice examples of most everything available. Over the past few years, I've started to concentrate on British and Commonwealth coins (which still leaves tons of coins to collect), and possibly some others. I guess for me, I used to collect whatever I found interesting. Now, I try to limit my interest to more defined collecting directions, always with a mind to acquire the best condition possible. Also, I've grown less tolerant of hairlines and other unnatural flaws (like re-toning, or corrosion) that coins can come with.

I disagree that one should never buy any coin that's not entombed in a PCGS sl*b. Depending on your resources and market you're in, you can find good, original, even rare (even U.S.) coins raw. But you really have to know your stuff, and be ready to pounce on a deal if you come across such a coin. So, to reiterate, I think arming yourself with knowledge is of paramount importance, and it's a lifelong trip.

May it be a good trip for you!!!

SYRACUSIAN

It's hard to resist adding a few thoughts to this thread. I apologize for my off topic question in my previous post,
but it's been something I always wanted to ask and Mac's reply exceeded my expectations, thank you.

The article is a good guide for the novice collector of US coins, even if DH threw a little SSP inside,
but it certainly can't suit everybody's tastes and opinions, especially the Darksiders.

On the subject of focus: I was probably one of the most focused collectors among the members when I've joined,
it was always natural to me and didn't think twice about non Greek coins, with rare temporarily exceptions.
This has changed dramatically the last year and I'm not sure that it's a bad thing.
My Greek collection is far from being complete, but I've given up on the idea of achieving such a goal one day, even if it was possible.
For the first time in the past 10 years, I'm going to end this numismatic season with three, maximum four, new Greek coins .
This is because the prices keep an amazing rally that few people can afford,
the amount of high grade coins offered is very small and even then,most of the times I already have the coin.
It's also because the mintages are small, survival rates even smaller,
people couldn't afford to put aside coins for further generations of collectors,
and (the sad truth), there's a complete lack of numismatic education in Greece,
and the amount of coins that are improperly cleaned or mishandled is very high.
What's worse, people continue to mishandle them and clean them and nobody seems to care...

So , in the meantime, I've acquired a taste for foreign coins, notably British,
where it only took me 6 months to complete two (2) 20th century type set albums in BU (almost complete),
with a very small budget. If compared with Greek coins, both albums would pay me one good quality coin if found.
Obviously the amount of fun and education cannot be compared.
I also bought a few select Japanese high grade coins, a half dozen of inexpensive certified world classic coins,
such as the Swiss franc, the French Walker and about 30 others, mainly minors,bronze and copper,
but all of them are choice to gem BU. That's the only common denominator,
because I only like bu coins and the fact that they're high grade and therefore easy to sell, might come very handy later.

Focused? Ask me again next year.

But I can definetely add one advice to Mr Hall's article:
find a nice forum, and you'll have a lot of fun, time to reflect and of course education for free.
As for myself, I really feel that the Darkside and the interaction with all of you,
has actually helped me become a better person and continues to do so. How can you beat that?

(everybody's entitled to a rant once a year, right?)

trozau

<< <i>(everybody's entitled to a rant once a year, right?) >>


You can rant all you want anytime you want.

Askari

<< <i>On the subject of focus: I was probably one of the most focused collectors among the members when I've joined, it was always natural to me and didn't think twice about non Greek coins, with rare temporarily exceptions. This has changed dramatically the last year and I'm not sure that it's a bad thing. >>

Ah, the "Liteside Syndrome" has its parallels in other countries! It's only when the veil has been parted and the wonders beyond revealed that the more adventurous souls dare venture into that terra incognita.

I would modify Hall's strident emphasis on focus to a more nuanced one: You should have a "main focus" on which you concentrate, but "play" a little on the side. Maybe you apportion your resources 80/20 between them or something like that. Sometimes there is an "outside" coin too attractive to your eye to not acquire. That may lay the roots for your next collecting focus. At some point your main focus will reach a level of difficulty where acquisitions are increasingly few and far between or else you become bored with it. Rather than let ennui overtake your collecting enthusiasm, keep it spiced up on the side, broadening your knowledge base and interests. Having both a "working collection" and a "playing collection" is a wonderful approach at balancing your "numismatic life"!

cladking

Taken to an extreme focus would mean studying various die states of a single variety
of a single coin. I actually do this with the '60-D US five cent coin a little bit. But to me
it's not so much focus a collector needs so much as he needs a theme or themes which
fit his personality and temperment. For me that originally meant a collection of everything
in world and US coins, tokens, and medals, but this has been refined over the years to
exclude many things because they were obscene, irrelevant to other collecting interests,
overly expensive, impossible to store, or impossible to locate. What's left essentially re-
presents many different themes from specific token money to world coinage of a specific
era. Within these many different themes there are many different specialties. It is only
at this level that I specialize and this fits my temperment.

It would seem this also fits many collectors who might like only uncirculated coinage, or
rare issues from 19th century Japan. Certainly in this sense focus is critical because it
does provide a collector with a thorough knowledge of specific coins and allows him to
value these coins accurately and build a network for acquiring them at a fair price. While
a more "diffuse focus" doesn't allow for so much in depth knowledge it does present one
with more opportunities to acquire needed pieces and does allow one increased opportun-
ity to see relationships between the various series and types.

Much of what anyone collects is largely driven by personality and interest and alone can
reveal something about a collector. To each his own.

1jester

That's why I collect Matchbox and HotWheels cars too...