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Anybody think gold is a good investment at these levels?


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  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,948 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’m leery it. High bullion prices have been the main reason why I have avoided buying double eagles for inventory. As a small dealer, the downside from a drop in the bullion price is too large to make up for the minor upside that I might get from selling a $20 gold to a collector.
    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • StuartStuart Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $20 Gold pieces are still relatively affordable at $400 gold prices. However, I can see a day in the not-to-distant future when if gold takes off to over $500 per ounce, common date MS-63/64 $20 Saints & Libs will be $1000+ coins and alot of us may wish we had bought (and held) more for $350 when gold was at $270...

    Stuart

    Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal

    "Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭

    With the Fed saying the economy still stinks, I'm not too sure about the gold/inflation argument.......

  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,948 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>$20 Gold pieces are still relatively affordable at $400 gold prices. However, I can see a day in the not-to-distant future when if gold takes off to over $500 per ounce, common date MS-63/64 $20 Saints & Libs will be $1000+ coins and alot of us may wish we had bought (and held) more for $350 when gold was at $270... >>



    Affordable really does not have too much to do with wheather this is an investment or not. In the current market a $400 double eagle is basically a lump of gold. Its only up side is an increase in the gold price. From a numismatic perspective it's a dud.

    I've done much better with scarce numismatic items. If I wanted to invest in gold I'd buy the bullion gold coins. Low grade $20 gold pieces are kind of like messing with Mr. In Between. They are neither pure gold speculation nor a numismatic coin with a future. They are just a fairly "safe" investment with limited potential.
    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • StuartStuart Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bill: I agree with your investment assessment of $20 Gold pieces. However I collect $20 Gold Pieces for the enjoyment of it, and because I feel that they are beautiful coins to hold & behold.

    I have assembled a modest-sized set of Saints & Libs over the years, and purchase a select coin when I find either a Saint or Lib with outstanding luster, or a Lib with Semi-PL to PL surfaces.

    Since I prefer big Gold & Silver Coins they are alot of fun for me to collect!

    If you want to discuss investing, I'll change the subject from coins and will suggest that you check out a couple of micro-caps in the energy field that I am following image

    Stuart

    Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal

    "Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
  • From a collector's perspective, I also agree with Bill's assessment. Many folks here know I ALWAYS recommend staying clear of gold as an investment, regardless of what the price per ounce is. You can read several of my previous posts for my reasons. Gold has a very high risk level for a very small reward. For investing, I ONLY recommend investing in the following three things:

    1. Good growth stock mutual funds with a good five-year track record or longer.
    2. Paid-for investment real estate, like single-family homes and apartment buildings.
    3. Money market account for your three- to six-month emergency fund.

    I have no problem in someone collecting gold coins for numismatic purposes only. If you do collect gold coins, do this for enjoyment only.

    I recommend against the following:

    1. Precious metals
    2. Bonds of ANY kind (UNLESS you are already retired with a huge nest egg, and just want some tax-free municipal bond income)
    3. Individual stocks (average investor makes 7% per year, vs. 12% for a good growth stock mutual fund)
    4. Currency trading
    5. Leveraged investments of ANY kind
    6. Coins, stamps, antiques, paintings, etc.
    7. CDs (MUCH too low reward for tieing your money up)
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,323 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Personally, I don't speculate in gold. However, at a local show last Sunday gold and silver is where the action appeared to be. The action was entirely in bullion, not numismatic, gold/silver. Gold seems to rise and fall with the dollar. If you think the dollar is going to fall in value vs. the Euro or Swiss Franc then it may be a good short term play. So far as silver goes, I wouldn't touch it as an investment. It is bulky and seems to be far more prone to speculation than gold. Silver is not rare and, at more than $7 an ounce, seems pricey vs. gold.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,948 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hi Stuart,

    If you enjoy collecting double eagles, why not? It certainly makes for an impressive looking collection.
    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭


    Many folks here know I ALWAYS recommend staying clear of gold as an investment,


    And I always respond that my account balance does not know if I invested "Right" or "Wrong"....image



  • << And I always respond that my account balance does not know if I invested "Right" or "Wrong".... >>

    That is true. However, ON AVERAGE, a person will make more money in good growth stock mutual funds and paid-for investment real estate than anything else. These are both ownership investments, where you own part of a company or a piece of dirt. Ownership investments, on average, will have the highest returns in your account. If you were to make more money on anything else, you would be in the minority.

    Check out: Dave Ramsey, a highly popular personal finance guru. If you don't believe me, listen to his radio show or read one of his books.
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
  • I watch some of the money shows and most predict that gold will reach $600 by the end of the yearimage. I love gold coins so even at these prices I’m still buying them but for their beauty. As for a good investment you should get an advisory like Morgan Stanley....


    image
    JoeCool
    image
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭
    Frankly, I could not care less about "average." The only thing that matters is my account balance.

    Pretty easy nutshell to work with, IMO. image



    PS: I fired my first Advisor (sic) back in 1995 over his misleading use of "average." Oh the good ol' days!!!!




  • << <i>From a collector's perspective, I also agree with Bill's assessment. Many folks here know I ALWAYS recommend staying clear of gold as an investment, regardless of what the price per ounce is. You can read several of my previous posts for my reasons. Gold has a very high risk level for a very small reward. For investing, I ONLY recommend investing in the following three things:

    1. Good growth stock mutual funds with a good five-year track record or longer.
    2. Paid-for investment real estate, like single-family homes and apartment buildings.
    3. Money market account for your three- to six-month emergency fund.

    I have no problem in someone collecting gold coins for numismatic purposes only. If you do collect gold coins, do this for enjoyment only.

    I recommend against the following:

    1. Precious metals
    2. Bonds of ANY kind (UNLESS you are already retired with a huge nest egg, and just want some tax-free municipal bond income)
    3. Individual stocks (average investor makes 7% per year, vs. 12% for a good growth stock mutual fund)
    4. Currency trading
    5. Leveraged investments of ANY kind
    6. Coins, stamps, antiques, paintings, etc.
    7. CDs (MUCH too low reward for tieing your money up) >>



    I'm not sure it's such a good idea for you to be so specific in your advice. You may regret it later. I prefer to say what I have done and allow others to draw their own conclusions. You're advice is excellent for periods of low inflation, orthodox and reasonable, and correct in your attempt to steer folks away from fear mongers. But we are about to enter an unusual period when inflation will be viewed politically as the best of evils in terms of policy. See Bill Gross, Stephen Roach, Jim Rogers, Peter Drucker, Warren Buffet, et al. Good luck.

    Atomic
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot


  • << <i>From a collector's perspective, I also agree with Bill's assessment. Many folks here know I ALWAYS recommend staying clear of gold as an investment, regardless of what the price per ounce is. You can read several of my previous posts for my reasons. Gold has a very high risk level for a very small reward. For investing, I ONLY recommend investing in the following three things:

    1. Good growth stock mutual funds with a good five-year track record or longer.
    2. Paid-for investment real estate, like single-family homes and apartment buildings.
    3. Money market account for your three- to six-month emergency fund.

    I have no problem in someone collecting gold coins for numismatic purposes only. If you do collect gold coins, do this for enjoyment only.

    I recommend against the following:

    1. Precious metals
    2. Bonds of ANY kind (UNLESS you are already retired with a huge nest egg, and just want some tax-free municipal bond income)
    3. Individual stocks (average investor makes 7% per year, vs. 12% for a good growth stock mutual fund)
    4. Currency trading
    5. Leveraged investments of ANY kind
    6. Coins, stamps, antiques, paintings, etc.
    7. CDs (MUCH too low reward for tieing your money up) >>




    I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold, then again, I don't know anything about bonds or investing.

    But gold is always worth something, I think **if** the US backed its money by gold it'd be better than just paper money where inflation just keeps rising things to an unbearable high. I know some people who have to have 2 jobs just to feed a family of 3. Due to this inflation thing.

    I looked in my '99 coin magazine that I still have, and was shocked on how "great" the prices looked in that book on gold coins. In '99 those prices for gold were norm, and now gold has risen up so fast, its pretty shocking to me.

    I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold as a investment because its always worth something , I don't see how its risky.


  • << <i>

    << <i>From a collector's perspective, I also agree with Bill's assessment. Many folks here know I ALWAYS recommend staying clear of gold as an investment, regardless of what the price per ounce is. You can read several of my previous posts for my reasons. Gold has a very high risk level for a very small reward. For investing, I ONLY recommend investing in the following three things:

    1. Good growth stock mutual funds with a good five-year track record or longer.
    2. Paid-for investment real estate, like single-family homes and apartment buildings.
    3. Money market account for your three- to six-month emergency fund.

    I have no problem in someone collecting gold coins for numismatic purposes only. If you do collect gold coins, do this for enjoyment only.

    I recommend against the following:

    1. Precious metals
    2. Bonds of ANY kind (UNLESS you are already retired with a huge nest egg, and just want some tax-free municipal bond income)
    3. Individual stocks (average investor makes 7% per year, vs. 12% for a good growth stock mutual fund)
    4. Currency trading
    5. Leveraged investments of ANY kind
    6. Coins, stamps, antiques, paintings, etc.
    7. CDs (MUCH too low reward for tieing your money up) >>




    I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold, then again, I don't know anything about bonds or investing.

    But gold is always worth something, I think **if** the US backed its money by gold it'd be better than just paper money where inflation just keeps rising things to an unbearable high. I know some people who have to have 2 jobs just to feed a family of 3. Due to this inflation thing.

    I looked in my '99 coin magazine that I still have, and was shocked on how "great" the prices looked in that book on gold coins. In '99 those prices for gold were norm, and now gold has risen up so fast, its pretty shocking to me.

    I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold as a investment because its always worth something , I don't see how its risky. >>



    Your common sense trumps many financial experts. Indeed the cost of living has greatly increased during this period of so-called "low inflation" such that two incomes are now required where only one was before... to pay for health care, rents and mortgages, car payments... The second parent's job used to pay for luxuries or if the second parent was unemployed represented a buffer if the first parent became unemployed. Now both need to be employed full time just to keep the household solvent. This is inflation, not the price of milk or TVs.

    Why Middle Class Mothers and Father are Going Broke

    I own many, many coins. Only one is worth only what I paid for it, all of the rest more. Wish I could say that about the stocks I own.

    Atomic
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • << I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold, then again, I don't know anything about bonds or investing. >>

    I know a lot of folks disagree with me, and I understand the arguments. The main arguments FOR investing in precious metals, as I interpret them, are the following:

    1. Good short-term investment, but lousy long-term investment, i.e., different times demand different investing styles
    2. Falling value of U.S. currency compared to other currencies
    3. Increasing U.S. deficit and record national debt putting downward pressure on U.S. currency
    4. Political and economic instability, i.e., fear of an economic collapse
    5. Inflationary fears in the future
    6. Uncertain U.S. stock market
    7. Safe and intrinsic value of a hard asset, which is not tied to any currency

    Here are quotes from a new book that is fast becoming a national best-seller, The Total Money Makeover, (c) 2003 by Dave Ramsey:

    1. "The truth is that gold is a lousy investment with a long track record of mediocrity. The average rates of return tracked as far back as Napoleon are around 2 percent gain per year. In recent history, gold has a fifty-year track record of around 4.4 percent, about the same as inflation and just above savings accounts."

    2. "It is important to remember that gold is not used when economies fail. History shows that when an economy completely collapses, the first thing that appears is a black-market barter system, in which people trade items for other items or services."

    I know many folks disagree with me on this, but I'll stick to basic long-term investing principles that are supported by mainstream personal finance experts like Dave Ramsey. I will respectfully agree to disagree with many folks here and leave it at that. Everyone has to make up his or her mind, and I wish everyone the best in their investing.
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.


  • << <i><< I don't see whats wrong with collecting gold, then again, I don't know anything about bonds or investing. >>

    I know a lot of folks disagree with me, and I understand the arguments. The main arguments FOR investing in precious metals, as I interpret them, are the following:

    1. Good short-term investment, but lousy long-term investment, i.e., different times demand different investing styles
    2. Falling value of U.S. currency compared to other currencies
    3. Increasing U.S. deficit and record national debt putting downward pressure on U.S. currency
    4. Political and economic instability, i.e., fear of an economic collapse
    5. Inflationary fears in the future
    6. Uncertain U.S. stock market
    7. Safe and intrinsic value of a hard asset, which is not tied to any currency

    Here are quotes from a new book that is fast becoming a national best-seller, The Total Money Makeover, (c) 2003 by Dave Ramsey:

    1. "The truth is that gold is a lousy investment with a long track record of mediocrity. The average rates of return tracked as far back as Napoleon are around 2 percent gain per year. In recent history, gold has a fifty-year track record of around 4.4 percent, about the same as inflation and just above savings accounts."

    2. "It is important to remember that gold is not used when economies fail. History shows that when an economy completely collapses, the first thing that appears is a black-market barter system, in which people trade items for other items or services."

    I know many folks disagree with me on this, but I'll stick to basic long-term investing principles that are supported by mainstream personal finance experts like Dave Ramsey. I will respectfully agree to disagree with many folks here and leave it at that. Everyone has to make up his or her mind, and I wish everyone the best in their investing. >>



    Yesterday's financial hero is tomorrow's goat. What's new is old, and what's old is new again. Here's a piece I posted on my web site Feb 2000. Not many, but a few, understood what it meant. Those that did were glad.

    Atomic

    For five years, at least, American business has been in the grip of an apocalyptic, holy-rolling exaltation over the unparalleled prosperity of the "new era," upon which we, or it, or somebody has entered. Discussions of economic conditions in the press, on the platform, and by public officials have carried us into a cloudland of fantasy where all appraisal of present and future accomplishment is suffused with the vague implication that a North American millenium is imminent. Clear, critical, realistic and rational recognition of current problems and perplexities is rare.

    Changes in the structure and processes of American industry and trade have been swift and sweeping, as the President's Committee on Recent Economic Changes has so well shown. Have these changes fundamentally altered the conditions of economic security and progress for either the individual business man or the nation? The simple truth is that we do not know. The Committee was honest and scientific enough to say so. American business should be sane and sensible enough to recognize it.

    There is not a single new and important development in our economic life in recent years of which we can confidently calculate the consequences or judge the soundness and permanence. We have seen an amazing increase in man-hour production in industry since the war, but we do not know why it took place then, or whether it was merely a resumption of a rise, quite as rapid, that had been going on for fifty years before the war. We certainly do not know how long or rapidly it can continue, or, if it does, whether and how the problems of adjusting employment and consumer purchasing power to it will be met.

    We have seen new industries rise like rockets, and old ones grow tired and die. We do not know how soon the new ones will fizzle out, or what others will take their place.

    We have seen the machinery of distribution formed and reformed into new patterns changing every day before our eyes, but no one can say precisely where they leave the consumer and the independent enterpriser, or whether they will fundamentally alter the costs of distribution or mitigate the rigors of commercial competition.

    We have seen security prices soar out of sight of earnings, brokers' loans swell till they absorb a third of the banking resources of the country, and the blind pools of ancient days return and multiply by endless crossing and pyramiding as the investment trusts of today. Banks merge and emerge in chains, trailing trusts and holding companies, while industrial corporations pay dividends not by producing goods but by buying each others' stocks and by borrowing and lending everybody's money in the market. But of all these things can anyone say with surety what they signify, whether they are safe and sound, or what they are leading to? We do not even know, or cannot agree, whether inflation exists, what it means, or how it shall be measured.

    In face of the ignorance, uncertainty, and irrationality that surround every aspect of the "new era," it were wisdom for business to keep its feet firmly on the ground and assume for the present that the principles that prevailed through the long business past still govern the stability and success of business today.

    Business Week -- September 7, 1929
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • MacCoinMacCoin Posts: 2,544 ✭✭
    even poor peaple can own gold. I just picked up a 1/20 oz maple leaf for $30.00 for a trade over on the other forum
    image


    I hate it when you see my post before I can edit the spelling.

    Always looking for nice type coins

    my local dealer


  • << <i>The second parent's job used to pay for luxuries or if the second parent was unemployed represented a buffer if the first parent became unemployed. Now both need to be employed full time just to keep the household solvent. This is inflation, not the price of milk or TVs. >>



    Both my parents have always had to work in order for us to get by. I'm not sure everyone shares your experiences with one-worker households.
    I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is no such thing as LONG term investments. If you hold too long you lose...almost always. As Fishcooker says, it only matters what is happening now and in the future. Average long term returns from the past are pretty meaningless. I care about my bank account today and tomorrow. All commodities, stocks, investments, etc operate on cycles. These cycles can be from months to years to centuries. Nothing goes up or down forever. This coupled with the fact that humans invest by emotion and not with facts always doom the majority to mediocre to poor results. That's been proven over an over again. The majority always loses so that the minority can win big. By the time a tried and true medium is created that should work for ever and ever, and is presented to one and all as the "only" way to success, you can bet the farm that is no longer the way. The current methodology of real estate and stocks smacks of this to me. Yup, it worked for 20 years, and that's exactly why it's not going to work so well for the next 20. Look at all your possible options. Do some reading and investigating. Besides those others mentioned consider James Sinclair, Jim Puplava, Gary North, Sol, Richard Russell, Congressman Ron Paul (TX), Soros, and others. They all have much to offer, and it's free.

    Gold is getting poised for some great short term gains. This road will be continuously rocky, up and down. It will constantly shake your faith. But the trend is up and staying up until the US financial house shows ANY sign of trying to correct itself. So far there is no hint of trying to deal with this problem except to spend more money and raise the debt ceiling.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    A $20 Saint in MS65 grade carries about the same value ratio as a wheat penny! 3x face value. I don't see anyone bashing wheat cents!

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold


  • << <i>

    << <i>The second parent's job used to pay for luxuries or if the second parent was unemployed represented a buffer if the first parent became unemployed. Now both need to be employed full time just to keep the household solvent. This is inflation, not the price of milk or TVs. >>



    Both my parents have always had to work in order for us to get by. I'm not sure everyone shares your experiences with one-worker households. >>



    fishcooker,

    I'm 46. It was typical when I was a kid that middle class kids like me had one working parent. But in my case, both my parents worked. Today, two working parents is the norm. See the link to the story in my post, above.

    Atomic
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • And here's an argument for a gold account vs a standard savings or money market account...

    Gold Money

    Atomic
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • << There is no such thing as LONG term investments. If you hold too long you lose...almost always. As Fishcooker says, it only matters what is happening now and in the future. Average long term returns from the past are pretty meaningless. I care about my bank account today and tomorrow. All commodities, stocks, investments, etc operate on cycles. These cycles can be from months to years to centuries. Nothing goes up or down forever. This coupled with the fact that humans invest by emotion and not with facts always doom the majority to mediocre to poor results. That's been proven over an over again. The majority always loses so that the minority can win big. By the time a tried and true medium is created that should work for ever and ever, and is presented to one and all as the "only" way to success, you can bet the farm that is no longer the way. The current methodology of real estate and stocks smacks of this to me. Yup, it worked for 20 years, and that's exactly why it's not going to work so well for the next 20. Look at all your possible options. Do some reading and investigating. Besides those others mentioned consider James Sinclair, Jim Puplava, Gary North, Sol, Richard Russell, Congressman Ron Paul (TX), Soros, and others. They all have much to offer, and it's free.

    Gold is getting poised for some great short term gains. This road will be continuously rocky, up and down. It will constantly shake your faith. But the trend is up and staying up until the US financial house shows ANY sign of trying to correct itself. So far there is no hint of trying to deal with this problem except to spend more money and raise the debt ceiling. >>


    I totally disagree with roadrunner. You should do long-term investing in good growth stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate, and short-term investing in money market accounts. Past results of any investment are extremely important in gauging how the future will play out, since no one can predict the future. Yes, everything works in cycles, but, again, all you have to work with is past results, not the future. Short-term investing is risky at best. The majority of folks cannot do short-term investing and match the results of good growth stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate. Yes, there is a minority of folks who might be able to do this, but it is only a small minority at best. Yes, good growth stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate have been good over the past twenty years, and I also feel they will be good for the next twenty years. I have done extensive reading on the subject, on both sides of the issue. I choose to believe the mainstream and majority of experts in that precious metals are not a wise investment. The people I choose to believe are folks like Dave Ramsey (personal finance radio show host and best-selling author) and John Bogle (Vanguard founder). Precious metals are not the place to invest (or the place to use your money as a medium of exchange) for the future. There have been and always will be financial problems in this country and the world. The only way we can work ourselves out of this mess is not to panic and take some positive steps like investing in things that will create jobs and income. When economies fail, gold is not used as a medium of exchange. I watched the Iraqis on TV with my own eyes a couple of months ago exchange their old currency for the new currency. Not once was gold ever used. I also recall that after the Soviet Union collapsed, gold was also not used. When Russia and the other countries emerged, they temporarily used a black-market barter system, trading goods and services for other goods and services. So, history has shown that gold is not used when an economy collapses. I see no reason for folks all of the sudden using gold as a medium of exchange in the future.
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,423 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, we've been through all this before so I won't dwell on it too much.

    But I totally agree with roadrunner and totally disagree with dollardude.

    We are in uncharted waters, economically. Never before has the world seen a nation in such great debt as the USA. Never before has the world seen the kind of enormous derivative structure we now have in place ("financial sewage" and "financial WMDs" as Warren Buffet calls them). Never before has the world seen such widespread use of fiat reserve currency (and most of it issued by the largest debtor nation in history).

    Past performance has no bearing whatsoever on the present situation because the present situation is unique in all of history.

    If interest rates go up significantly, residential real estate is dead meat (and thus the economy too). That is, unless interest rate hikes are significantly lagging increases in inflation. In other words, the US Federal Reserve won't be able to raise rates to fight off inflation until well after inflation starts ravaging the economy. Ultimately, US Government budget deficits are the fuel for inflation. And there is plenty of fuel being poured on the coals and a lot more in the pipeline. In fact, inflation is already obvious in many sectors of the economy. And the unprecedented delayed releases of the PPI numbers by the government are a cause for concern.

    And people in Iraq and Russia most certainly DID use gold in barter - they just didn't do it in front of TV cameras for obvious reasons. But most people in those countries had very little gold to begin with.

    The ship is sinking. Save yourself. Stop betting on the ship. Invest in a lifeboat. Don't expect CNBC to ever tell you that. They'd get their own lifeboat before they'd ever tell the viewers. The "ship" is the staus quo. The "lifeboat" represents change and a new beginning.

    Is it "unpatriotic" to think and/or act in such a manner ? I think not. If you save yourself financially, you will actually be doing your local community a favor.

    Investing in stocks (in the hope that jobs/income/wealth will be created) will not really help the USA. The way to save the USA is to drastically reduce the trade deficit and the Federal budget deficit, drastically reduce oil consumption, and do it without imposing a crushing tax burden on the citizens. Politically, that will be almost impossible to achieve.

    If you really wanted to help the country, the best thing you could probably do would be to invent alternative (renewable) energy technologies that could take the place of petroleum (or, in this particular case, invest in companies engaged in that research).

    We will see who is right and who is wrong within a year or two.

    In the future, will we look back at this year and say "2004 was a lot like 1928" ? Or will we say "2004 was a lot like 1978" ? This being an election year, I'm thinking of a 1979-80 type of outcome (in 2005-06).
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dollardude, the definitions of "long term" and "short term" depend pretty much on the trend in progress. The last 20 years for stocks was a "short term" period as cycles go. It was just one cycle. This down trend we are still in will also be a "short term" trend of maybe 7-20 years. Anyone who weathers the full long term of this trend from trough to trough (27-40 years) will probably be very unhappy with their results "long term."

    Investing (if that's what you want to call it) should be based on riding the short term trends until it starts to become clear that the trend is ending. The current "short term" trend in commodities and
    tangible assests is still generally on the uptrend. When this trend ends, it would be time to move more of ones assets into undervalued stocks and real estate that have been beat to a pulp.
    We aren't there yet. The commodity up trend / stocks down trend, is still in progress and may be for another several years.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭
    So even though price of gold has stalled at $400, and the Fed says inflation is nowhere to be foreseen, there is not one vote against Gold today?


    Opppppssss... I meant two votes............I knew DD's view before posting....... and although I don't have his crystal ball, I do agree with the point that Americans do not own sufficient gold bullion for it to be used as currency in any circumstance.
  • 1jester1jester Posts: 8,637 ✭✭✭
    Here's one more vote for gold or other precious metals.

    imageimageimage
    .....GOD
    image

    "Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9

    "Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5

    "For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
  • Gold doesn't have to be used as currency in an economic collapse nor does an economic collapse have to occur for gold to be a good investment. So far, I'm up 65% and as the conditions for my initial investment still hold -- the dollar is in for secular -- gold is still cheap. So is every other commodity priced in dollars, it's just that I don't have any place to put several tons of copper.

    Here's a good site that has a lot of information about long range history of commodity, bond and stock markets.

    Secular Trends in Financial Markets
    "...different factors drive the supply and demand for stocks, bonds and commodities. Stocks are primarily driven by earnings expectations which depend upon the business cycle. Bonds depend primarily upon nominal interest rates which are driven by inflation and by default risk. The long-term world bull market in bonds from 1865 until 1900 was driven by reduced risks to bondholders, and the current bull market in bonds has been driven by falling inflation rates. These structural adjustments can take decades. Because it can take years to bring into production new sources of oil, gold, or other commodities, raw material prices can remain stable for years, then jump in price suddenly. For these reasons, secular cycles in stocks, bond and commodities behave differently."

    AtomicGlobal Find Data
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭

    Atomic,

    If I spent $8000 per year to subscribe to the data source, I wouldn't have to worry about investing at all!




  • << <i>Atomic,

    If I spent $8000 per year to subscribe to the data source, I wouldn't have to worry about investing at all! >>



    The quotation I posted I'd pull off the site in 1998 when the site was free. If they're really getting $8K, that's a pretty interesting business.

    Atomic
    Estragon: I can't go on like this.
    Vladimir: That's what you think.
    - Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
  • << Investing (if that's what you want to call it) should be based on riding the short term trends until it starts to become clear that the trend is ending. The current "short term" trend in commodities and
    tangible assests is still generally on the uptrend. When this trend ends, it would be time to move more of ones assets into undervalued stocks and real estate that have been beat to a pulp.
    We aren't there yet. The commodity up trend / stocks down trend, is still in progress and may be for another several years. >>


    I call what I am doing investing according to basic principles suggested by most mainstream financial experts. I call what you are doing speculating or gambling. I do not do short-term investing of any kind. This is really dumb. Most people who do short-term speculating lose their butts. I will stick with sound advice for my long-term investing. Long-term investing will almost guarantee you are a millionaire at retirement with very little effort and oversight. If you make consistent, periodic investments in good growth stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate, and simply dollar-cost average everything, you don't have to worry about trying to outguess the short-term trends. Broke people do short-term investing and gambling. Rich people do long-term investing, and don't play these dumb games.

    Here are the folks I choose to believe:
    John Bogle, Vanguard founder (check out Re-Mutualizing the Mutual Fund Industry — The Alpha and the Omega)
    Dave Ramsey, Financial counselor, national radio show host, and New York Times best-selling author (check out Dave Ramsey)

    Here's another piece of advice. Don't take financial advice from broke people. If you want to become rich, you have to do what rich people do. If you do what poor people do, you get to become poor people.

    Check out this quote by John Bogle from the above reference:

    "Sharply rising fund costs have widened the shortfall by which fund returns have lagged the returns earned in the financial markets; the age-old wisdom of long-term investing has been importantly crowded out by the folly of short-term speculation; and “product marketing” has superceded investment management as our highest value. The recent fund scandals provide tangible evidence of the triumph of managers capitalism over owners capitalism in mutual fund America, an unhappy parallel to what we have observed in corporate America itself."

    He calls short-term speculation "folly".
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭

    All I know is I like listening to my account balance, and since I've done that I've beaten the S&P 500 soundly - by over 40% since 1/1/2000 - with less risk. In 2000 I plunked 30% down on a house, avoiding PMI, and in 2002 bought a car and every penny was from short term speculation (insert evil hiss here). This year I've picked up another 1/3 of a car - maybe next winter I'll pick up a smaller, fuel-efficient car for around town.

    Commodity bull, stock bear, Value, Growth, International Bonds....... who really cares as long as their account balance grows? Doesn't matter what the world throws at us I'm not limited to one way. Might even involve pretty gold coins. image




  • if you really want to make money in stocks then just watch those talking heads on CNBC and do exactly the opposite. i personally use jim kramer as my own indicator. i think too many people put too much faith into the information they throw out there. these guys are in the business to seperate you from your money. they will say anything that suits their purposes. 2 other shows to watch are BULLS AND BEARS and CASHIN IN. same story. they all sit there and throw stocks at you and you are suposed to follow their advice like its gospel. same goes for the mutual fund advisors and money managers. this whole stock market system is rigged against you. its all a game. but if you know that going in you CAN make some serious money. i think the same thing can be said for the precious metals market. i dont believe you can buy and hold longterm for retirement and i use enron as an example. if you are really on your toes and can stay involved and focused in the market for short term profits you will be way ahead of the GAME then some one who doesnt make the effort to get involved in learning about the market and instead just forks over $2500 a year into mutual funds that really dont grow a hell of a lot over time.i would rather make 100% profit in a few months than 3% in a mutual fund over a year. i dont like tying up my money for very long periods of time.

    john
  • StuartStuart Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Here are the folks I choose to believe: John Bogle, Vanguard founder (check out Re-Mutualizing the Mutual Fund Industry — The Alpha and the Omega) >>



    Dollardude: Jack Bogle is one of my all-time favorite individual investor champions. The Vanguard Group is a great mutual fund investment company, that protects the interests of the individual investor.

    You and I have found some common ground on which we can agree!

    Stuart

    Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal

    "Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭

    In 2000 I remember Kramer touting high risk tech semiconductors, again and again taking loss after loss, and pooping Energy Service as they scored higher and higher on rising rig count. He eventually crapped out completely...... can you be a guru with no followers?


    I also remember Jimmy Rogers on CNBC - circa January 1995 (DOW below 4000) - telling everyone to sell all investments and to put all their money into German currency. They had USA callers ask how to do this, and he said that large American banks like Chase can do it. Never heard another peep about that turkey egg, but the guy stayed on the payroll.

  • fishcooker
    the list of these clowns is endless : Abey joseph cohen, ralph ( i can make you poorer) oh i mean ralph acompora, bill fleckenstein, etc.

    2 weeks ago on bulls and bears (on saturdays) one genius said to load up on UTX ( united technologies). its gonna go thru the roof. that monday it tanked almost $5.

    as far as kramer goes, if it wasnt for his wife who was an absolute master of the markets( i think they used to call her " THE TRADING GODESS" ) kramer would still be selling door to door.

    john

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