My instincts tell me

LovethoseIndians

My gut feeling is telling me there will be a "correction" in the coin markets in 2004 that will leave price changes flat, if not a little downward. I have no "specific" information I can articulate at this time to back this speculative feeling really. After a few good years it just makes sense there eventually would be a correction and I feel one coming on.

Any thoughts from collectors and dealers more experienced than I?

291fifth

My gut feeling is that the market may be much more subdued for the rest of the year. At local shows attendance is still extremely good. However, collector buying is apparently below par. Most of the trading is dealer to dealer and there is a lot of that. My attempts to sell at local shows (remember, we are talking smaller shows here, not FUN, LONG BEACH, etc.) have been very disappointing. I have nice material and expect a premium to be paid for it. The local dealers will not pay a premium for anything so I end up selling little or nothing. I'm not seeing any LOCAL evidence of the supposedly "double-nuclear" market that some claimed existed a few months ago.

One clarification. Because the LOCAL dealers won't pay a premium for anything I believe that increasingly they are being bypassed. One of the prime reasons why the collectors are not buying much at the local shows is that the local dealers have nothing of much interest. Their inventories are extremely stale.

LovethoseIndians

Anyone???? Any thoughts on this???

LovethoseIndians

291,

Excellent analysis...EXCELLENT! I too have had similar experiences and I guess I was trying to see how others are SEEING the market right now.

In fact I had a poll out here a couple weeks ago that asked "how much dough" an average collector might spend in 2004.

I am going to curb some of my buying by just going after a couple coins that I still have not bought yet (1916d merc in VF, and a 1955 DD lincoln) and I am going to stay away from ancillary coins in 2004 I think. Its time for me to take a step back and really look at the market. Don't get me wrong I am not going to sell, sell, sell...I will just curb the buy, buy, buy I have been in the middle of for 36 months now.

Thank you for the input

MICHAELDIXON

I have nice material and expect a premium to be paid for it.
.
What are you trying to sell? Dealers won't pay over sheet for material that is going to tie up money and not move. Unless you have premium bust, seated or key dates that are in demand, you won't get over sheet for it.

IrishMike

Hmmm, I just listed some coins for sale, my first listings in a long time. One day into the auction the coin had exceeded my reserve by $775.00. This tells me that there are going to be coins that will bring strong prices. Rare coins at least this week are still strong.

MICHAELDIXON

Personally, I don't see premium small type, bust, seated or key date Morgans and key date coins going down in price. The modern coinage, such as state quarters and things which are coming into the market in mass quantities will go down. A pop 1 state quarter today, will not be a pop 1 in the future. Collectors are sending moderns in at an alarming pace and the market just can't handle the influx.

cladking

<< <i>Personally, I don't see premium small type, bust, seated or key date Morgans and key date coins going down in price. The modern coinage, such as state quarters and things which are coming into the market in mass quantities will go down. A pop 1 state quarter today, will not be a pop 1 in the future. Collectors are sending moderns in at an alarming pace and the market just can't handle the influx. >>



1988 was a very bad year for Morgans because the pops were soaring!!! Coins which
had pops of zero in 1985 suddenly had as many as one or two graded. Of course these
coins were being sent in for grading because they were popular and the moderns weren't
being sent in because they were scorned or in the case of the states issues, hadn't been
made yet. Now moderns are popular and states quarter are being sent in. Somehow,
a population doubling from one to two doesn't seem to constitute a coin's being common.
If it were to go to ten, it still doesn't constitute common.

Moderns are being sent in at an "alarming" pace because they are popular. There is a finite
supply of them in high grade. There is even a finite supply in low grade.

LucyBop

my gut feeling is, that coins will continue to sell...

BillJones

<< <i>My gut feeling is that the market may be much more subdued for the rest of the year. At local shows attendance is still extremely good. However, collector buying is apparently below par. Most of the trading is dealer to dealer and there is a lot of that. My attempts to sell at local shows (remember, we are talking smaller shows here, not FUN, LONG BEACH, etc.) have been very disappointing. I have nice material and expect a premium to be paid for it. The local dealers will not pay a premium for anything so I end up selling little or nothing. I'm not seeing any LOCAL evidence of the supposedly "double-nuclear" market that some claimed existed a few months ago.

One clarification. Because the LOCAL dealers won't pay a premium for anything I believe that increasingly they are being bypassed. One of the prime reasons why the collectors are not buying much at the local shows is that the local dealers have nothing of much interest. Their inventories are extremely stale. >>



I don't know what you define as a "premium" but if you are not selling better dates or scarcer types, you can't expect to sell coins to dealers for "ask" or more. I'll pay "bid" or a little less for nice, correctly graded PCGS and NGC slabbed run of mill coins from the 19th to the early 20th century. I won't pay more than that because I can't make a mark-up if I do. Most dealers at the small shows don't pay as well as I do for nice material. Still you have got to be realistic. Run of mill stuff (common date Morgans, Barbers and the like) is not really hot at all.