A device that will grade your coins for you

Cameo CC

We are working with another party, who says that they are 99% sure they can product a device that will automatically scan a coin and tell you the grade. The device will be ready for market within the next two years.

The device will use standard criteria (ANA) to determine the grade. One will slide a coin into an area where the coin will be scanned from above, below and along the rim. Then use software to compare the coin to known grading standards.

The device will cost around $2500.00

I believe the device will only be as good as the software, but think it will be accurate to the grade.

Do you think any grading services will use the device or what about collectors?

How will this effect the grading services - will there be a need for them?

If this device is used, there would be not difference between them.

Todd

Placid

Nope.

ccrdragon

No - it might be able to give a good technical grade but it cannot and will never be able to give an 'eye appeal' grade which is purely subjective.

I for one buy coins based on eye-appeal more than on the grade assigned to the coin.

Cameo CC

We like this device for the time savings.

We would be able to Pre-screen coins before sending them to a grading service. We could go through 1000's of coins and only send the one's that match a certain grade.

Todd

mercurynut

I can see it now...a cherry picking collector walk into a shop and trys to scan all the coins for misgrades...Oh what fun.......

MadMarty

I can find AU58 by myself, thank you!!!

dorkkarl

yeaaahhhh, right.

K S

JMOORE

We would be able to Pre-screen coins before sending them to a grading service. We could go through 1000's of coins and only send the one's that match a certain grade.

I could see it being used for something like this.........

dpoole

As has been pointed out, the potential is there for assessing technical aspects according to objective criteria. This has been tried in the past, as you know. And as you say, such a program is only as good as the software. Ideally, one could adjust it to use specific criteria used by the grading services, perhaps using existing graded coins to set the parameters.

As has also been pointed out, though, the technical features are only part of what makes a coin appealing to a collector, and sets its value to people (as opposed to scanners and software). I can see how such a device (if valid and accurate) can help with pre-screening large quantities. You can always look over the machine's designees for real quality.

pontiacinf

then what happens todd???

ya start slamming the services cause your software says one thing and they say another?? comeon todd, you know better than that. There will always be someone out there whos gonna question the validity of a software program...having been an IT professional for years, and that doesnt even really matter, just the user of a regualr pc will be able to attest that software doesnt always live up to what is claimed...period

Id rather take my chances with a blindfolded pcgs grader than someones percieved thought of what a grade should be and relying on a machine to be able to disinguish so.

Only way this would fly is if once created you scan ALREADY GRADED coins and show that the machine gives the same grade, then PT Barnum may have a chance with selling said software.

pontiacinf

^I do believe this is my first opinion here

hoardmonster

Yeah, I could see a use for it in prescreening large numbers of coins.

oreville

Hmmm, you could add prices to the software and then we could buy coins like we buy food in a supermarket?

Hmmm, Littleton might like that?

oreville

I could see the grading services using such a device as a prescreened grade just in case the grader is way off base in his grade (every human can have a offday or even an off minute) and used to assist in the 2nd review as a failsafe.

Shamika

No way!

dorkkarl

<< <i>the device will only be as good as the software >>

therein lies the problem. until the mystery of consciousness & intelligence is solved, the software will NEVER be good. that's NEVER w/ a capital E.

K S

Cameo CC

pontiacinf

The key will not only be the software, but as you say the scan. That is what we are working on presently.

The scan has to be fast and accurate.

And who knows, maybe PT Barum will be able to sell 100's of these devices to the vest pocket dealers.

Todd

jbsteven

I would be interested in seeing the results of said device.

CarlWohlforth

I'm always interested in technology. Let us know how it goes.

I'd guess you could automate the counting of marks, nicks and scrapes. I think there could be some tough issues with luster, toning and especially eye appeal. So it might be useful for prescreening large amounts of modern coins. Then a person could go through the candidates to look for those PR 70s.

nwcs

Now if they can build a handheld version of the scanner, that would be fun! It'd be like bringing a grocery store price gun to a show.

jbsteven

nwcs

that was what I was thinking!

SportsModerator

Sounds lovely in theory, but would this device be able to differentiate the respective strike from various mints on the same coin issue? I cannot see you programming the characteristics of an 1881S Morgan to accurately grade a strike from the Philadelphia mint of the 90's. Eye appeal! A human trait. Tough to take into consideration with such a cut and dry approach.

Just my .02

baccaruda

I think anything that would make grading more consistent would be a good thing. Certainly can't be any worse than it is now.

And isn't the point of grading to judge the "technical aspects" and not eye appeal? The fact that a machine doesn't factor in "eye appeal" sounds like a good thing to me.

nwcs

>And isn't the point of grading to judge the "technical aspects" and not eye appeal? The fact that a machine doesn't factor in "eye appeal" sounds like a good thing to me.

Actually, eye appeal is the majority of grading now. Having a tool to help standardize the technical aspects of grading is certainly useful. Or at least helpful. Pricing it by eye appeal is another matter. One thing it'd also have to do is detect alterations and counterfeits.

kieferscoins

<< <i>We are working with another party, who says that they are 99% sure they can product a device that will automatically scan a coin and tell you the grade. The device will be ready for market within the next two years. >>



ANACS tried it, PCGS tried it and both failed. How fast does said device scan coins? Faster than you can put them in? Faster than a pre-screener?

It will fail.

Cameron Kiefer

Cameo CC

Cameron,

Failure is not an option (just joking). I would like the device to evaluate the coin within 10-15 seconds. We will see how the device preforms.

Todd

nwcs

I could seen an enterprising dealer setting up something like that at a show where a customer can pay a dollar to put their coin in to see what it would say. Would have novelty value and maybe some useful value. A self-serve operation. For the first mover it could probably recoup costs. For subsequent people, who knows.

kieferscoins

I give you credit for trying it. The major setback will be the slowness of the grading. Yeah, it might scan it in 10 seconds, but putting and taking the coins in or out will severly slow it down. PCGS had The Expert to grade morgans. It only held something like 20 morgans. The wave of the future ended fast after they found out it took more time and effort loading the thing with the coins. After that a human still had to screen each coin and look at the grade. 99% is a good percent, but the people making the device know anything about coins? How can it conform to ANA standards when they are very vague with MS-67 and above, especially with Moderns.

Cameron Kiefer

baccaruda

The major setback will be the slowness of the grading. Yeah, it might scan it in 10 seconds, but putting and taking the coins in or out will severly slow it down

Hmm, do you think the machine will take more than 3 months to grade every coin?

kieferscoins

No, 10 seconds per coin. 2 minutes to put a group through, 5 minutes to pre-screen again and change the grades. I don't think it would help. Might as well have the grader look them over.

Cameron Kiefer

geb209

<< <i>We like this device for the time savings.

We would be able to Pre-screen coins before sending them to a grading service. We could go through 1000's of coins and only send the one's that match a certain grade.

Todd >>



Great!!!! Use a machine to pre-grade coins and then send them to the grading services for a human to grade them. LOL, a crackout artist's tool.

I don't believe this so-called machine exists or is in the planning stages. Your reference to B.T. Barnum has solidified my belief. On the other hand, if you actually believe that such a machine would work, more power to you. Perhaps you could build a hand held device and scan every coin at a major coin show.

PS, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain as the scanner is doing all the real work.

jy8s

Dealers would never buy it.... How would you put in the buying grade criteria and the selling grade criteria so they can make a profit?

baccaruda

I thought the point was to eliminate the graders and the $30 submission costs?

Well, yeah if you're just gonna have the $250,000/year grader feeding the coins into the machine then there is no point.

kieferscoins

<< <i>I don't believe this so-called machine exists or is in the planning stages. Your reference to B.T. Barnum has solidified my belief. >>



It might be planned, but I don't think it will ever work.

Cameron Kiefer

Cameo CC

Geb209,

The software exists today. The hardware is in the development process. That is where the project stands today.

Todd

jbsteven

<< <i>Your reference to B.T. Barnum has solidified my belief >>



it is P.T. Barnum

geb209

Ya, you're right. There are dreamers in all of us. Perhaps someone is planning for such a machine. Maybe the Ronco guy could sell it on TV.

mgoodm3

If coin grading meant more to life and death, this idea would be great. We already have computers that can read mammograms, but only as a double check for a human reader. This could have the same use, as a double check for human grading, maybe picking up something subtle that you missed.

atomic

Cameo CC,
Very interesting. My email addr is listed in my profile. Please drop me a note.
Atomic

perfectstrike

I'd think the grading companies would jump all over this. At least those that publish the grading guidelines. If PCGS graders have a weakness, it's that the final grades don't always have the published minimum strike characteristics. PCGS could remove one of the finalizers and use the technical grade.

As to the technical side, the last group I heard of was a long way short on the hardware side, but the software algorithms looked very promising. They were also limited to one series and MS / PR grading was still a ways off. $2500 would be a great price, if it could be done.

perfectstrike

LucyBop

Here is my grading device, and it has been really good to me:

LAWMAN

Didn't PCGS or one of the other then major services try this back in the late 80's before the personal computer had really come of age.

IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME BOYS AND GIRLS. Don't mean to deflate all of us but, anything a human can learn that is based on the five senses will ultimately be able to be replicated by them durned machines. It's progress.

andy007

Wondo

I think most of you misjudge the capabilities of technology. What Todd says is in the works most likely exists. The only holdback is investment $$$ and ROI.

atomic

<< <i>so how is this software going to rotate the coin to be able to pick up wipes and such on coins? Will it be able to determine whether a $5 Indian is counterfeit or not? Or will it be able to pick up on what is allowed as far as color added to conceal marks, haze added, AT'ed, what is mint made vs. after minting flaws on modern coinage, how much dipping is allowed on a particular coin relative to series and date? Those are some of the most important aspects that I would need answered before believing this could work IMO. >>



V1.0 will all have sorts of problems. Version 4.0 will work better and faster than any human. Same technology as is used for checking circuit boards and IC ciruits, just a different app. It's a matter of time.

Atomic

airplanenut

So suppose this is only used for modern coins--you don't have to worry about a rub, cleaning, or other damage.

Even if this computer says 70, which most modern proofs are, the top services are still likely to give you a 69. Remember, a computer has much less liability than a company.

Jeremy

LAWMAN

I don't know if what Todd has in the works will come anywhere close, and I'm not happy about it, but, if a human can do it with the five senses, you will ULTIMATELY be able to train a computer to do it. Remember, even a few weeks before the Wright brothers finally did it on 12/17/03 (I was hiding there in the dunes) some hotshots from HAAARVAAAHD said it was impossible and that it would be a thousand years before man could fly in a powered aircraft.

Coin grading ain't nothin' to flying. Read a biography of the Wright Brothers, I just finished a great one -- The Bishop's Boys -- THAT was hard.

Where oh where is the Terminator now that we realy need him?

pontiacinf

can the scan also be used in aid to post pics of said coins?

That would be a great benifactor, if not, i see no value here, prescreening by machine is only good if your doing serious volume...im sure you guys do your share, but when or if market should correct itself, that dinosaur will do nada for you. technology on those front are seriously behind times and will be outdated by the time its refined.

hence only value i see is at least if ya slab and look to sell, you already have a pic.

pontiacinf

LOL lucy on your grading device

Todd..

you still avoid one question...whos standards are being input into the software, and Im sorry, but optical just isnt cost efficient

like cammie said, already been there

andy007

clackamas

There is software the currently scans faces in crowds to determine if the individual is a known criminal. Seems like coins are easy, with robotics and lasers I can easily envision such a device not only being accurate but being useful. Think how many mint bags you could throw in a hopper, set the machine only to spit out MS68's and let the puppy run while you do more productive work. Kinda makes Marty obsolete

Said device should also be able to learn and store new aspects of coins it determines are a certain grade. Luster and other aspect should be measurable, its all about how the light deflects and reflects. Good luck with the project but you may not want to sell it just use it to high grade bulk for yourself and let everyone else do it by hand. The wallstreet firms all use pseudo AI software to trade stocks profitably and that is far more intangible and emotional