Modern Cards - What value do they really hold?
Ruthfan
Posts: 185
I posted this on another persons thread but I figured I would like to get everyone's opinion on the issue so I figure I would start my own.
What does everyone think of the value and the long term value of the modern card, because I really don't see any value in investing in these cards in the long run.
They way I see it, the reason modern graded cards are not holding any true value, current or future, is for a couple of reasons.
1. There are just way too many cards produced today. The numbers are astronomical. The card companies have killed the industry. They have run out of gimicks and the kids that do purchase these packs are spoiled and only want the high dollar chase cards. I have seen kids these days give the the regular cards back and just take the high dollar cards. They don't care about the regular star cards in the packs. I'm not sure what the card companies can do now since I believe they have reached the point of no return with these young kids and gimick card collectors. Game used and #'d cards have been way overdone, the only real thing left to do is keep up the autographed cards.
2. The big reason. The top condition modern cards are being slabbed right after they are pulled from
the packs so there is always going to be an over supply of high graded modern cards. The supply
outweighs the demand driving down the value of the cards. Since these cards are being slabbed,
they will always remain in high grade form. You can only have a certain amount of mint Arod cards
before the bottom falls out. I can remember PSA 10 1998 SP Vince Carter cards selling for $2,500 and up just 2-3 years ago and now those same cards sell for under $200. I sold a PSA Mint 9 SP Vince Carter rookie a couple of years ago to Dave & Adams for $1,100 and now that same card sells for under a $100.00. At the time Dave & Adams were buying Carter rookies in PSA 9 and 10 for some pretty nice prices. I'm sure they were being bought for a collector who is now stuck with a bunch of those cards that are barely worth a fraction of what they paid for them.
3. Collectible value comes from the supply versus the demand and the condition of the items in demand.
That is why vintage cards hold their value. When these vintage cards were produced and originally
purchased there wasn't really any monetary value placed on them as the people purchased them
for collecting, trading and more importanly the gum that was inside the packs. There was no
value in them with the kids that were buying them then. The cards would be traded, played with,
marked on and thrown away over time. There numbers of high grade or collectible grade vintage
cards far away outweigh the supply.
I believe that the only way a dealer or collector can make money on modern cards is to sell them when the player is hot or when a product is newly introduced on the market. It would be very difficult to purchase an already graded modern card and wait a couple of years to sell it and still make a profit.
That is why I stick to the vintage. You can go back and compare and yes some have dropped a little over time, but the majority of the cards have gained value or at least their value has been sustained over the past 3-5 years.
Todd
What does everyone think of the value and the long term value of the modern card, because I really don't see any value in investing in these cards in the long run.
They way I see it, the reason modern graded cards are not holding any true value, current or future, is for a couple of reasons.
1. There are just way too many cards produced today. The numbers are astronomical. The card companies have killed the industry. They have run out of gimicks and the kids that do purchase these packs are spoiled and only want the high dollar chase cards. I have seen kids these days give the the regular cards back and just take the high dollar cards. They don't care about the regular star cards in the packs. I'm not sure what the card companies can do now since I believe they have reached the point of no return with these young kids and gimick card collectors. Game used and #'d cards have been way overdone, the only real thing left to do is keep up the autographed cards.
2. The big reason. The top condition modern cards are being slabbed right after they are pulled from
the packs so there is always going to be an over supply of high graded modern cards. The supply
outweighs the demand driving down the value of the cards. Since these cards are being slabbed,
they will always remain in high grade form. You can only have a certain amount of mint Arod cards
before the bottom falls out. I can remember PSA 10 1998 SP Vince Carter cards selling for $2,500 and up just 2-3 years ago and now those same cards sell for under $200. I sold a PSA Mint 9 SP Vince Carter rookie a couple of years ago to Dave & Adams for $1,100 and now that same card sells for under a $100.00. At the time Dave & Adams were buying Carter rookies in PSA 9 and 10 for some pretty nice prices. I'm sure they were being bought for a collector who is now stuck with a bunch of those cards that are barely worth a fraction of what they paid for them.
3. Collectible value comes from the supply versus the demand and the condition of the items in demand.
That is why vintage cards hold their value. When these vintage cards were produced and originally
purchased there wasn't really any monetary value placed on them as the people purchased them
for collecting, trading and more importanly the gum that was inside the packs. There was no
value in them with the kids that were buying them then. The cards would be traded, played with,
marked on and thrown away over time. There numbers of high grade or collectible grade vintage
cards far away outweigh the supply.
I believe that the only way a dealer or collector can make money on modern cards is to sell them when the player is hot or when a product is newly introduced on the market. It would be very difficult to purchase an already graded modern card and wait a couple of years to sell it and still make a profit.
That is why I stick to the vintage. You can go back and compare and yes some have dropped a little over time, but the majority of the cards have gained value or at least their value has been sustained over the past 3-5 years.
Todd
0
Comments
Sssssshhhhhhhh. We need a certain percentage of collectors focusing on Modern cards.
This allows massive amounts of liquidity to flow into the collecting world that vintage collectors can then use to
purchase investment grade cardboard.
Buy those $4 packs people, BUY EM!
Loves me some shiny!
I think that statement is the short of it. That and that every card produced is near prefect right off the press.
But it isn't as though they are worthless. While modern cards don't have much of an investment value, it can be argued Modern collecting has collector value. There may always be a group of people seeking low pop serial numbered items, autos, etc.
Modern collecting is fun because it lets people get involved in what is happening this year. If I were collecting modern, I wait two years (meaning today I would collect what was issued in 2002) so to better judge which product remained popular, which rookies are progressing, and to avoid the hype. In truth, Modern collecting is a world of it's own - it's history is yet to be written.
Jeremy
<< <i>Buy those $4 packs people, BUY EM! >>
CAREW - I went w/ the wife last week to a local card shop as I needed some supplies, and on the counter was a box of packs that were $29.99 for a 4 card pack. I knew these existed (& higher $ packs too!) - But I thought it was funny, when the wife said to me. "$29.99 for a box that small?" She was totally dazed when I said it was for just one of the 4 card packs. ...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Here's my response to your numbered paragraphs:
1) There are tons of modern, but more collectors too.
<< <i>The card companies have killed the industry >>
What industry? The cards companies are making money. The secondary market is irrelevant to them, as they make their money selling the original product. Gimmicks are used, sure, but what company doesn't use gimmicks???? The strong companies with innovative ideas (gimmicks?) survive.
I don't know what card collecting will morph into in years to come, but if there's a buck to be made, someone will be there.
2) Agreed, but again, your point leads to the secondary market. While card companies may monitor this activity, they are looking for the original sale.
3)
<< <i>Collectible value comes from the supply versus the demand and the condition of the items in demand. >>
<< <i>That is why vintage cards hold their value. >>
Yes, it seems this way now. But I remember back in 1983 (remember the CPU price guides?), vintage Topps was stagnant. Clementes and the like actually fell in value. People were drawn to modern to make a buck on the new prospects. While I agree with you, back then it seemed there wasn't a strong demand for vintage. That's changed now, but who knows what the future of collecting holds? My guess is that vintage value it here to stay, but who knows in 20 years what thing will be like.
BOTR
Hopefully by my example you can see that you're collecting what you like and can relate to while I will be doing the same. If Mantle has about 50 truly collectible cards, then why can't Pujols? Granted there will never be a huge demand for a Pujols 2004 Topps card, there will be high demand for a 2001 Donruss Signature Pujols, as well as his Bowman Chrome, SPx, SP Authentic, Ultimate Collection, Donruss Class of '01, Donruss Classics, ...
Just my two cents,
Jason
Our current ebay auctions, and of course BaseBallCardHeaven.com
On my #2 point, I am saying with the inception of grading, these modern graded cards will most likely not end up in a trash heap, bicycle spoke, stuffed inside a rubberband, laying up against a brick wall or with writing on them as the vintage cards used to.
The majority of these cards today are bought on the notion of collectible INVESTMENT. If that wasn't the case then why in the world would anyone in there right mind pay $10 and up for a pack of 4 or 5 cards.
Sure there are a small fraction of people buying these cards for the fun and love of the game, but it's very small in my opinion.
Does anyone think for a minute that these cards from the 40's, 50's, 60's and even earlier would be valued as high if they were all bought with investment value in mind. Let's say that 80% of the cards sold in that era were bought and kept in the original pack fresh state in protective holders like most are now, the value of those cards would be no where near of what they are now. Just think of all the Mint 1953 Willie Mays cards, 1939 Playball Ted Williams cards, etc.
That is the point I am trying to make. With everybody immediately putting there cards in card holders or slabs, the cards will most likely remain in their original state leaving the hobby with hoards of modern Mint cards. As everyone knows, value is determined in the supply of these mint cards. Scarcity is what drives the value of these collectibles. Since the majority of these cards are being protected the scarcity will not come into play with these cards. I will use the 1998 SP Vince Carter as an example like I did above. PSA has graded a total of 2380 of those cards with 460 being graded GEM MINT (roughly 20%), another 1,660 cards grading PSA 9 (roughly 75%), with the rest being mostly graded NM/MT. Sure there are many more ungraded examples out there, but I am pretty sure that the majority of those would be in at least NM/MT if not MINT condition.
Todd
This is so true - A lot of younger people think just like this.
Sometimes when I recommend an older card, I get just that response.
Jeremy
Also the innovations in the hobby have made modern cards more interesting. A game-used, autographed RC, serial numbered to 250 is very collectible to most hobbyists. While you may think a $30 pack is crazy, I think that paying thousands of dollars for a common in PSA 10 is just as stupid.
I collect both modern and vintage. I really don't see the point in the constant bashing of modern cards on this board. This is a huge hobby and there is room for different tastes.
I collect modern cards because they show modern players. You can't turn on Baseball Tonight and see how many bases Lou Brock stole last night, or see what antics Rube Waddell got up to. But you can see Frank Thomas and Mark Prior. That's why I collect cards of those players, to create a stronger identification with the people who do things that I like. I suspect that's true of anyone who's ever been a fan of a particular player or sport, but with current players the identification is immediate and I think stronger because you can watch them as they are doing it. I've spent more on my Frank Thomas collection than probably any other part of my collection, and I always knew I was going to take a loss if I ever sold it (though I don't think I ever suspected he'd fall as far as he did). But like someone whose hobby is skydiving or eating at expensive restaurants, or, God help him, spending money on his girlfriend, that money is spent, it's gone, and it's not coming back, at least not in any tangible reciprocal value. At least I still have my cards.
Today's modern card collector is more similar to the kids of the 1950s than you might think in that he is looking for immediate value. While a kid ripping open a couple penny packs in 1955 was looking for star players simply because they were star players, he might have been looking for any player from his team, trade material, flipping material, or any number of other reasons, probably the least of which was the thought of future dollar value. Today's collector is largely doing the same thing. They are either looking for their favorite players or a card that is otherwise valuable immediately, whether it's a card he can trade to a friend or dealer, or a lottery-type card he can make some money with. I doubt many people are opening 2004 packs so that they can find the sleeper prospects of 2 or 5 years from now. There are very few products even designed for that mentality, and the ones that are get most of their value from the prospects or gimmick cards that are hot right now
Will today's cards hold their value? I'd say probably not, at least at the top end. What's worth a nickel today will probably still be worth a nickel in 10 years. What's worth $100 today, well, that's a tougher call. But a $1 card today could be the $100 card of the next decade. There are too many card sets being put out today, but that's not really a bad thing. It takes all kinds of products to draw people into the hobby today. Remember when there were only 5 sets, or 3 sets, or 1 set? You bought a couple boxes worth of packs, you traded your doubles, and you were done. And if you didn't like a company's design that year, you didn't collect it. Now instead of each company producing 500,000 copies of the same Frank Thomas card, you get 25,000 copies of 20 different cards, plus hundreds of inserts. Is that bad? I don't think so. It's just the way the hobby has evolved. Variety is believed to be required in order to keep the cardmakers in business, so sets are being churned out in a highly competitive marketplace. The way people buy cards has also forced that evolution. Instead of millions of kids buying a dollar's worth of packs from the drugstore, you've got thousands of adults buying boxes and cases from specialty stores. If it wasn't for the large amount of new product with all the gimmicks, card shops wouldn't be able to support themselves. And without card shops, we'd be back to buying cards at drugstores, and I don't think anyone really wants that.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
and attempt to sound smart but if you dont collect it how can you claim to know anything about
it?
First off, there are 50 times more Mantle rookie cards out there than the best Ichiro and Prior rookie
card! I call that limited!
Some rookie cards have print runs of only 100 cards and that will always be 100 cards! The population
reports on your vintage issues will only go up because more people will submit....no one is destroying
PSA graded vintage cards. While modern cards disappear into collections and thus become wanted
when the come up for sale, graded cards increase as people bust old wax, find attic stashes....etc
As far as cards pulling from packs mint, you ask any modern cards collector and this couldn't be further
from the truth! Today's card is many times more condition sensative than any 60's topps card back then! I
don't remember any foil on Hank Aaron's rookie card, or any signed cut on Jackie Robinson's that
had to have a centered auto.
If you must convince yourself, go out and buy a pack of 2004 topps or 2004 UD and tell me how
many mint 10's you would get...and these aren't even the foil issues.
As far as supply and demand, you know nothing. Many key rookies have a huge demand. Check out
Alexis Rios 2002 Elite card numbered to 1000 cards, which by todays standard is over production...
it sells for 100 bucks a pop UNGRADED. That doesn't sound like dead to me....heck the guy hasn't even
played a game in the bigs yet and he is worth more than many rookie cards of guys in the hall!!
Next time you come on here and write a topic like this might I suggest you arm yourself with
facts and not hearsay. It is obvious that your idea of modern is 89 upper deck. Todays market, while
filled with many sets, does have key cards that will prove much more scarce in 50 years than any
card from the 52 topps set today.
You obviously didn't spend those 75 posts on the buy/sell boards. Consider this post a free lesson, Im
going to have to charge you for the next one.
Sincerely,
Modern Card Collector
"Since the players are still active, modern cards will always have huge fluctuations in price. That is the attraction of modern. Modern offers the small collector an opportunity to buy a pack and make hundreds even thousands of dollars. It is like the lottery, but potential return is much greater than anything vintage can offer.
Also the innovations in the hobby have made modern cards more interesting. A game-used, autographed RC, serial numbered to 250 is very collectible to most hobbyists. While you may think a $30 pack is crazy, I think that paying thousands of dollars for a common in PSA 10 is just as stupid.
I collect both modern and vintage. I really don't see the point in the constant bashing of modern cards on this board. This is a huge hobby and there is room for different tastes. "
I couldn't have expressed this opinion better than your concise and accurate statements !
Its difficult for someone collecting vintage to understand a market they only have tangential experience with; they couldn't possibly discriminate or distinguish who is valuable and who is not, what product is most accepted and how can you minimally invest in a prospect card today and realize huge rewards tomorrow.
Any modern collector would tell you that the product to buy is Bowman Chrome and Bowman Chrome Draft. You only have FIFTY as in 5-0 Gold cards as a subset of the most important rookies and prospects. No matter how you slice it, there is only a pool of 50 cards from which to grade and with the variability in centering , incidental damage and surface features you can count on only a handful of cards which will be the BEST rookie card of that player graded in GEM MINT and MINT condition.
Now , compare those numbers to the thousands of commons produced in vintage which are being graded. I would be appalled at collecting PSA 6 & 7's no matter what .
At $ 3 a pack, I'll take my chances anyday on a Bowman Chrome Gold card, or with savvy investment, pick up the sleeper cards of prospects who can multiply profits by hundreds.
Stick to your vintage if that is the market you understand Ruthfan; I have been in both and find the risk of modern prospects like a mini-stock market...diverting and profitable.
To KallMalone: I've been reading your posts....how is your new store in Vegas doing.....next time I'm in Vegas, I'll be sure to drop in !
<< <i>First off, there are 50 times more Mantle rookie cards out there than the best Ichiro and Prior rookie
card! I call that limited! >>
there might be more '51 Bowman Mantle rookies than the most limited Ichiro or Prior card (whats the lowest print run? 550 in UD Ultimate?), but saying there are 50 times as many is ridiculous. first off, Mantle had one rookie- 1951 Bowman. both players you mentioned have what, 45-50 rookies? not to mention first year parallels/inserts/GU/autos/etc out there. but, for the sake of argument, lets just count their best rookie vs. Mantle's rook. i dont have the pop reports handy, but there are probably less than 10 mint or gem mint Mantles out there. 10 vs. 250 (ill say 250 because i'm sure not every Prior or Ichiro would grade a 9 or above). to add to that, many Mantle rooks are in private collections and won't be available for sale for a long time, if ever. if you want to verify this do a year long study of ebay sales for the 1951 Bowman Mantle rookie versus 2001 Ichiro and Prior rookies. i would bet that your "50 times the amount available" result would be about accurate. only thing is youll find that the Mantle is the one thats 50 times rarer.
you dont want vintage guys to make comments about newer stuff that they allegedly have no knowledge of? why dont you refrain from making comments about vintage stuff, cause its obvious you have no idea what you're talking about
into buying a long time ago. Im talking their best cards not some other card. There are many 52 Mantles
out there, probably more than the 250 Ichiro and Prior rookie cards, If you knew anything you would
even know that.
Im sorry you own the "other" Mantle rookie, I once knew a guy who had a 64 Rose...he used to tell
us all that his mom went into a shop to buy a Rose rookie but they didn't have one so she
bought the 64 version...LOL
Are you really comparing a gem mint card that is over 50 years old to a card produced in 2002? Are you
so sure to tell me that in the year 2052 there will be more Prior UC rookies graded gem mint than
1951 bow mantles?? LOL You missed the point completly.
Do you join the group of collectors who have the graded Tiger Woods SI cards and all sit around at
a table telling each other why your card is the rookie card?
LMK
JS
since you obviously know nothing about vintage stuff, here is a "modern" example- the 1992 Bowman Chipper Jones and Pedro Martinez second year cards are considered more desirable than their cheaper rookies that predated the Bowman by one year.
i have no idea what rant youre going off on about me unfortunately owning a '51 Mantle (which i dont by the way) or the 1964 Rose, so ill save you the embarrasment and not comment on them.
and yes, in 50 years there will still be a substantial number of mint condition Prior and Ichiro rookies out there. why? because of grading, and the fact that cards nowadays go straight from the pack to a nuke proof screwdown holder. '50's cards werent looked at as collectibles the way modern cards are.
i wont respond to anything else about this subject, as your incoherent ramblings give me a migraine.
One point that I didn't come across in reading this thread (rather quickly) was that there's too many brands of modern cards, and within those brands there are too many parallel or insert cards of a particular player. I think this is strike against the future value of "modern" cards, as it becomes confusing on what card is more valuable to collect than another for a particular player.
I'm trying to picture 50 or 100 years from now an appraiser/dealer of a Mark Prior rookie that this particular version card is numbered to 50 and was printed in gold foil instead of silver and has an autograph that is clean and well-centered or this Prior rookie is chrome version or special black bordered version and has a swatch of "game used" jersey (not to be confused with a jersey that was just worn for a photo shoot) and that has 4 colors on it instead of 2. It seems to me that there are multiple brands of limited rookie cards out there for athletes that are signing card deals with multiple manufacturers.
I do believe that those athletes that are signing exclusive agreements with card companies may find that their future value of cards may have stronger value, as the market isn't clouded with their rookie image on a slew of manufacturers and all of their brand and inserts/parallels.
Stalin, I think your being a bit defensive to the original poster on his observations of modern cards. I think as a whole, his points are valid. I'm just adding another one that hurts modern cards. Proliferation of brands and sub-brands.
The hobby is big enough for modern and vintage collectors, and most probably don't have the wherewithall to actively commit to both. I would imagine most collectors here may focus on one or the other or perhaps dabble a bit in both. A lot depends upon your budget to collect.
For me, I like to focus on multiple facets of the hobby and spend more time on 60s/70s vintage baseball and football . I only collect modern regular Topps base & traded issues (no inserts) for baseball and football. Not Topps Total, not Topps Chrome, not Topps Tribute, not Bowman Heritage, not Bowman Chrome, not Topps Pristine, not Topps Stadium Club, not Bowman's Best, not Topps Gallery, not Topps Retired baseball, not Topps Heritage, not Topps T205/T206, not Topps Finest, not Topps All-Time Favorites (although I do like this one)....get my point?!?!?
One last story to relate. I like to collect Minnesota Vikings cards and have on/off again purchases of modern Vikings cards outside of the Topps base brand. I recently found an extensive Vikings master card checklist on the internet. Just for the year 1999, there are over 1800 Vikings cards listed! We're talking about no more than say 1/4 of the players on the roster that year even appear on a card, with the majority of sets representing about 1/10 of the roster. Some of the cards I cannot even tell what parallel version or brand it is because there are so darn many of them.
I think it will be up to the the leagues and player associations to limit the over-proliferation of cards and brands out there today. Won't happen because there's too much $$ at stake and the secondary market is not nearly as important as their primary market (however, the former can ruin the latter).
I'm no modern card guru, but I know enough about the hobby and what MY collecting/investment options and interests are and for the most part stay away from modern cards.
Erik
Vintage is cool, but it does nothing for me. You buy it and put it away. No news on that player other than that he may have died. I can't pump myself up enough to get into that. that is why I am a collector AND investor. I love seeing a profit on my cards, but I also love watching my investments earn that profit on the field each day. Watching baseball to me is like watching the stock market channel. I follow stats each day and try to get in early on some of the guys performing throughout the season.
They do overproduce alot of the rookies these days, but I gear my collection to serial numbered rookies, usually as low or lower than 250 or so. How can these not be worth a lot of $$$ in the future with print runs so low, especially if the guy becomes a star? So even if every one of the 250 cards produced grades out at Mint or better, that doesn't take away from the fact that there is still only 250 of these cards produced!!! I am sure that there is a lot moe than 250 of any Mantle card out there.
Mantle is Mantle. I will not argue with that, but give the modern cards a break also. I have a few 1/1's that make any vintage card look silly because whatever it grades, will be the only grade of this card....EVER. Wouldn't a 1/1 Mantle rookie card be cool? I know there is lots of brands with 1/1's, but no one card is the same.
The Bowman Chrome Gold rookies are cool if you guess right. If not, you have a card numbered out of 50 that is of a minor leaguer. The quantity produced doesn't seem to matter at that point. That is why I wait and see on those cards as well. Too many players to choose from and the amount asked for for some of the no names is still too high. Buy them all and even if 1 or 2 make it, you are still stuck with all the other guys tou shelled out $50-$60 for that became nothing. Can't brag in that instance.
As for the vinatge graded stuff, I agree that I would never shell out decent $$$ for a PSA 5 or 6 no matter who it was. That's just a crappy grade - period. save all the money from the 5's and 6's and buy a 8 at least for god's sake.
And how is it that every vintage collector seems to know the inventory of vintage sealed packs put away waiting to be opened an submitted for grading. I agree that it is probably not much, but these packs just keep popping up by some big time collector or investor. there is more sealed packs out ther then you guys want to admit. Vintage always looks scarce at the big shows around me because there is more modern collectors. But if there was ever a vintage only show, I would not be surprised by the over abundance of vintage cards. There is alot of that stuff out there. The thing with vintage cards is that alot of older people own them and they may not all be into the grading thing just yet. Lots more vintage stuff then you guys make it seem.
TheRoach
you? Funny to think that while that Chipper card was being printed up modern cards included rookies
of Eddie Murry and Alan Trammell.
I wonder why you vintage guys are so caught up on grades...is that all that matters? Its funny the
stupid prices people are willing to pay just for someones opinion...an opinion from a person who
they don't even know! Perhaps they were feeling happy that day or were on drugs...is that opinion
worth 100 bucks? 1000 bucks? 10K?
at what point does the criticism turn into hypocrisy....at least modern collectors care about what a guy
did or will do on the field. You all are ready to plop down money on some short print high number
card just because of the grade...who cares who is on the card..the population report says.........blah blah blah..
You keep telling us that this modern stuff won't hold its value and that it won't attract kids yet everyone
here at one time collected the cards that were new at the time. How can anyone learn anything
about the greats of the 40's, 50's, and 60's without knowing who and how the game is played today?
Are you going to tell me that the entire vintage market is dependant on only two things......
a grade and a slab??
Maybe it is all the switching of holders and conterfeits that are getting you all edgy...knowing that one
day, perhaps real soon, all those cards in your vintage graded collection might or might not have been actually
the original card? Fakes have killed the patch market, why wouldn't it kill the vintage market too?
unless there is more to vintage than the condition of the card.....
JS
Your responses reminds me of a circle. There's no start and finish point. It just keeps going around and around. However, there is one difference..............the circle doesn't continuously ramble with nonsense like you do.
Go back to collecting Tampa football stuff; you're more suited for that.
BOTR
about the greats of the 40's, 50's, and 60's without knowing who and how the game is played today?"
JoeStalin
WTF does this mean? I don't have to know anything about todays game to learn about the greats. You must have meant this sentence to be:
How can anyone learn anything about how the game is played today without knowing about the greats of the 40's, 50's and 60's.
Joestalin, you yourself may want to do a little homework on the vintage market before you make yourself look any more stupid than you already do.
I started this thread because I recently found an old SMR from August of 2000. Some of the big name modern cards have drasticly dropped in value in the last 3 1/2 years.
Here are some examples of some rookie cards from various years in the 1990's in PSA 10 Gem Mint condition. I tried to pick some of the cards that had limited production runs. The 1998 Sp Authentic only produced 2000 of each rookie The first column is the August, 2000 SMR price and the second is the current 2004 SMR price.
Example - Football 2000 2004
1999 SP Authentic Ricky Williams #91 $1,000 $425
1998 Sp Authentic Randy Moss #18 $2,300 $450
1998 Sp Authentic Payton Manning #14 $3,000 $700
1998 SPX Finite Randy Moss #239 $2,300 $1,000
1998 SPX Finite Payton Manning #181 $3,000 $1,500
1999 Sp Authentic Tim Couch #92 $1,500 $240
1999 Sp Authentic Edgarin James #94 $1,750 $450
1999 Topps Chrome E. James #145 $350 $75
1996 SP Terrell Owens #7 $450 $260
1996 Topps Chrome M. Harrison #156 $295 $115
Example - Basketball 2000 2004
1998 Sp Authentic Vince Carter #95 $3,500 $310
1998 Sp Authentic Paul Pierce #100 $350 $135
1997-98 Topps Chrome McGrady #125 $200 $100
1996-97 Topps Chrome K. Bryant #138 $1,600 $525
1996 Topps Chrome Bryant Ref #138 $6,400 $3,000
1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57 $27,000 $6,000
Example - Baseball 2000 2004
1995 Bowmans Best V. Guerrero #B2 $2,200 $275
1993 SP Derek Jeter #279 $8,750 $4,750
1994 SP Alex Rodriguez #15 $7,500 $3,300
1993 Bowman Derk Jeter #511 $325 $80
1992 Bowman Mike Piazza #461 $365 $75
1990 Leaf Sammy Sosa #220 $750 $235
Yeah, Joe that is what I would do is pay $100+ for a card of a guy that has yet to prove himself.
If you would like to put your money where your mouth is Joe, I make you a couple of wagers. You can take your 2002 Elite Alexis Rios and I will bet within 5 years it's not selling for at least half of what they are now. You take your money and invest in this guy over a proven hall of famer. Hey, Joe does Brien Taylor or Greg Jeffries ring a bell. Alot of collectors put alot of money into their cards and fell flat on their faces.
2nd wager.
You find me 50 cards that were produced from 1990-2000 in PSA 10 condition that increased in value from 2000 to 2004 compared to my vintage PSA 9 Hall of Famers.
Joe, guess what? Those Mantle rookies that you say were produced 50 more times than the best Ichiro or Prior Rookie card jumped $5,000 since the 2000 SMR.
By the way, I thought I would fill you since you don't have a clue to as to what you talk about. The 1951 Bowman Mantle IS and always will be Mickey Mantle's rookie card. The 1952 Topps is his first Topps card. Look in the SMR and you will only see (R) for rookie by the 1951 Bowman and not the 1952 Topps.
Todd
I disagree. I remember being blown away by the prices of Mantle, Mays, Koufax, Clemente, and Aaron especially in PSA 9 1998-1999. If I remember correctly, 63 Mantle 9s used to fetch 8-10K+, and now you might get half. And yes modern cards have gone down as well durinig the same time. Probably a combination of POPs going up with submissions increasing, and the state of the economy.
Also, you're comparing players like Vince Carter, and "guys who get hot" to retired players whose place in their respective game's history has already been established; not a fair comparison. Of course current players will have price fluctuations due to performance (on and off the field these days).
Every generation (modern or vintage) has its own superstar players, and these cards will always be in demand. It's all a matter of preference. As some others have mentioned, I would rather collect cards of players I've seen on TV or in person rather than those who played before I was born.
As a modern collector, I try not to hold onto rookies from the current year rookie crop past the end of their first season. The only ones I keep are the really rare ones (jersey #, spectrum, masterpieces) which can keep their value. All the other stuff has to be moved out before the next rookie crop arrives. I'm curious to see what Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony cards sell for in 5-7 years...will they pan out?
I think with modern cards your best choice will be to collect low numbered autographs. I don't really like the new ones where they sign a sticker or a blank sheet and stick it in/on the card. I like the autos that a player actually signed the card. If they go down at least you have an auto of your favourite player which I always like....
I could not believe the price difference on the 1998 SP Vince Carter card from 2000 to now. I hope you didn't have a big investment in them. I do think they will pick back up, but just not to the point that they were at 4 years ago.
That was really the point I was trying to make. Most of these modern cards have dropped over 50% and some alot more than to what they were 4 years ago. I know vintage has dropped some as well in some cards, but I don't see it as drastic like it is with the modern cards.
This thread was not a knock at modern collectors as I have several modern cards in my own collection.
Todd
Have any of you guys mentioned what happens when a man dies? I had up for auction a tug mcgraw auto card from 03 retired set. i noticed his auto's were bringing 5-10$ from that set. i happened to list mine 2 days before he died and i got 65$ for it. i just listed it thinking i could get 10$ for it. then he passed away and the card went flying up. same went for johnny unitas stuff when he passed away.
as for modern cards i sold a rudi johnson auto #d to 25 for 10$ around this time last year. for those of you who dont know who he is. He is the running back for the bengals who was having a spectacular year. i saw my same card different seriel # to 25 sell in december for 140$. so there is a 130$ profit(gamble) if you bought it for 10$ so you really never know. cards is like a crap shoot the more i learn about this. sometimes its just being on line, or the being at the right place at the right time. you never know when you will get lucky.
who's to say when michael jordan passes away his psa 10 card might hit 50,000$$ you just never know.
investing in proven modern graded rookies is the same thing as investing in vintage stuff. its all about the pop reports. the reason most of the modern cards that dropped in SMR since '00 is because the pop report exploded, and supply outweighed demand. look at "Beckett value" between 2000 and now, and youll see there isnt a significant drop in price at all. most of the modern collectors (joestalin, etc) dont collect graded cards, so they dont see the SMR info as relevant. im sure all the vintage guys have seen this scenario in older cards, where a previously low pop card increased in a short time and the value tanked.
i still believe (speaking only for graded cards) that vintage is a safer investment than modern, because of the huge amount of modern high grade stuff thats still out there- either raw or still in unopened product. i would doubt theres still a large enough amount of undiscovered vintage stuff out there that it could ever flood the market and cause sudden price drops
I still stand by that 1909 jimmy burke card i have. The one i sent to beckett 2 times and both times came back restored but not a reprint. but both times there points for not grading it were different. in my opionion(and i know opionion are like a$$holes everyone has one) there will be something different or more FACT than grading in the near future for cards.
that's my opinion............
BOTR
Look at the chain of events:
First there was the regular "insert card". Topps Finest Refractors were some of the hottest cards in the hobby at one time. Then it was the "super limited" cards (1 of 25). Then it was the 1 of 1 (so much for player collectors at this point). Then the jersey cards, auto's, Babe Ruth's bat, and every other combination imaginable.
From an investment standpoint, there are so many negative forces at work. The player could be the best in the world, but his card values could still fall because all of the good news is factored into the price (Tiger Woods rookies).
The price could fall because he's injured.
It could fall because of an avalanche of new supply.
It could fall because the market gets more and more diluted as each new issue comes out. The pie gets cut up into thinner and thinner slices.
Goodriddance, you said the rookies of these players dropped because they have tanked. Sure some of these players have not torn it up on the playing surface, but how can you say Randy Moss, Payton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Vlad Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez or Sammy Sosa have tanked in the recent years.
I can see a small drop in Jordan's cards after retiring and then coming back with a new team and not playing Jordanesqe, but to fall from $27,000 to $6,000 (almost 80%) is awful.
Randy Moss is still one of the games top go to guys as well as Marvin Harrison who has been probably the best receiver over the past 3-4 years. He may break all of Jerry Rice's records before his playing days are over. Payton Manning has been pretty stellar the last couple of years, especially this year being Co-MVP.
Kobe has been the NBA's poster child until the recent rape charge. He has won 3 titles in the last 4 years. Guerrero has been one of the most productive and consistent players in baseball over the past 5 years. Arod, well he has been exceptional over the past 3-4 years, argueably the best all-around player in baseball. He just chose to go to a pretty bad team. Sosa well, you know Sammy. Consistent home run hitter the last 5 years and new member of the 500 HR club. Could possibly have a shot at Aaron's or Bonds' home run record before he retires.
You are right about the POP reports exploding. That is the point I am trying to make. The reports on the modern cards are exploding due to the cards being protected and slabbed as soon as they hit the market. The cardboard stock and the printing and cutting process is much better these days so you are going to find more mint cards. Sure some of these cards that are foil and others are prone to come out flawed, but a majority would still be classified as mint. In my opinion, you will not see an explosion of the POP report for the pre-1960 vintage card market. Sure there are many ungraded vintage cards still left, but how many do you actually think will grade MINT or even NM/MT?
Todd
With that said, what some collectors see as overproduction in modern cards, I see choice. No one says you have to collect every brand, but you can if you had the means and wanted to. The 2 critical keys to this hobby is:
#1 Collect what you like, regardless of what others think
#2 From Gem Mint to Poor there is a card at a price for everyone
Anyway, the point (to me at least) is that both modern and vintage cards are in a bit of a slump price-wise, but only with vintage has the underlying value of unopened material kept steady and actually risen ... this suggests that vintage is doing better than modern in holding value, and will likely remain so.
Robert
P.S. Yes, I collect both vintage and modern ... in both cases, because I'm a fan of the players/teams/sets I'm collecting, pure and simple.
without knowing who Bonds or Sosa is first. Todays game gets collectors and the future vintage collectors
intrested. Im sure you can see that. For some of you todays game seems far away but to most of
us that is what keeps our intrest.
Ruthfan...you really are so out of touch...SMR means NOTHING to todays collectors, its old and inaccurate
and tells nothing about modern cards, heck they can't even put the right cards in there. It may
be some guage in telling what a vintage card is worth, but only because you all follow it like it is
the bible. Does SMR=ebay prices?
Your whole argument on those rookie cards really means nothing because graded prices are
not important. There is more now than just condition, style of the card, rarity...etc
As far as Rios.....you want to wager when a guy is red hot??? LOL Where were you when they
were selling for 4 dollars last year? And please tell me that you can give me more modern example
of busts than Jeffries and Taylor.
I really wonder just how out of the loop you are. It seems like you are still living in the 80's, you really
can't even name a player who has had a rookie card recently without consulting some guide.
There are many very intelligent vintage collectors here, and Im sure your one of them, but why
talk about modern cards if the last one you bought was back in 1985?
...and maybe you can answer my question that no one else has....is condition the only thing that
matters in vintage cards???
Thanks
Kevin
i still think that game used modern stuff will never hold its value, and no one will change my mind. SP Legendary cuts autos seem to be a great investment though
Are you bad mouthing my SI Tiger Woods RC again?
I thought we ironed all of this out last week.... you were wrong, I was right, modern cards will never make it, and vintage rules. See how easy that was. lol
Just kidding. I actually love to read Kevin's (joestalin) threads. He has this same debate every couple of weeks with other board members. He understands the new card market, believe's strongly in what he says, and has many valid points. I'm not sure I agree with all of them.... but each of us uses a different crystal ball to try and predict the future of vintage, graded, modern, and raw cards. The simple fact of the matter is that none of us really know for sure, and only time will tell.
The only 2 rock solid things I think we can count on.... is that supply and demand, and condition will play a part in the future of both common and vintage cards. That is basically what makes any collectible a valuable item. So with that said, wouldn't it hold true that 30 years from now the most sought after cards will be the ones that are in the shortest supply, and the hardest to find in nice condition.
So if I was going to start collecting newer cards.... (for long term investment purposes)..... I'd start by collecting all of the overlooked issues that people are throwing in the trash today..... as they will certainly be the hardest to find in Mint condition 30 years from now.
Won't it be ironic when the future goldmine turns out to be the "new junk cards" that we're all giving our kids to play with today.
Just a thought.
Mike
The point he makes is a very good one. The cards that are being disregarded or lost in the modern shuffle are the ones that turn out years from now to be so cool. Could it be a regional issue or some other card that was only redeemable through a promotion that becomes the next 52 Mantle or T206 Wagner.
My counterpoint to that good observation is that someone has already thought that out ahead of time and is one step ahead of the game. Could it be that someone is cornering the market or contriving something only to act upon it many years later? Perhaps. The key is whether they will be one step behind what really hits it big.
Perhaps somewhere there's a few Honus Wagners out there waiting to be found or long forgotten in an attic. Probably not, but not impossible. That's what makes the debate so much fun.
One last thought on the subject that requires some homework or knowledge of modern cards. Let's assume these 1 of 100 or 1 of 50 or 1 of 25 or 1 of 500 cards become the most sought after in the future. My take is how many manufacturers and brands are doing the same thing, and in essence, diluting the market. My point is that the modern hobby sucks because there's too much product. Someone here give me some facts to back up or deny my point. How many X of XXX cards of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, Albert Pujols, A-Rod, etcc... are out there???
Erik
see Pujols' 2001 Bowman Chrome auto rookie (#'d 500) and his 2001 Donruss Signature auto rookie (#'d of 330 i believe). the Bowman Chrome is seen as his best rookie, and the difference in price is several hundred dollars.
the glut of modern product doesn't usually affect the best card in terms of price or demand, its usually the smaller cards that get lost in the shuffle of overproduction.
is amazing because he wasn't included in many early releases. To compare...Josh Beckett back in 99 had
only 2 rookie cards. Now take Matsui who had over 50 rookie cards....and to top it off Topps didn't
make any of him! I would be the first to say that there are way too many products out there but....
1) If you collect a certain player instead of only 3 cards a year there is now plenty to chase and while
busting them from wax would cost you a lot of money, with ebay you can actually have a nice collection
of one player in only one year!
2) While the bowman chrome and other autographed rookie cards were THE Pujols rookie cards to get
I didn't have any problems moving lesser valued Pujols rookies like Gallery and stars....more rookie
issues mean more chances to pull him and the guy is selling!
I think the modern card collector can realize what is going to be sought after and what won't be. You only
have to know your history....bowman chrome is constantly on top, UD also has a foot hold on rare
rookie cards and lately playoff has made a huge move towards rookies and rookie autos. Today it is
almost impossible to call your rookie collection complete without an autographed rookie card.
While the vintage collector collects for completness, the modern card collector is motivated by owning
something that everyone wants. I have many cards right now that could be worth hundreds
overnight, and I will be there to sell them because the smart collect knows when to cash in his
chips. Call it hype or whatever you want but it sells and if you know what to look for then you can
cash in.
I have received info twice from this forum, from karl....who has been watching ebay and mentioned
a card that is selling well that I have and I was able to sell it for a good price. I hope that info like
that continues.
Thanks
Kevin
modern vs. vintage, would anyone like to win big once in a while or hardly ever lose?
looking to trade my 1/1 2001 s.u.x. albert pujols rookie jockstrap/boxer short w/ skid mark auto in psa 10 for a 1951 bowman mantle rc in psa 8, this offer is good until january 2024.
this is not an attack just one man's opinion, but i was wondering ; if over 20 years, 50 unique cards of a player are issued as # x of 100 by 6 different companies for 10 separate issues how many rare 1/100 cards will be out there? in 20 years will anyone care? we'll see.
go to ebay and type in the words "pujols bowman chrome auto" to answer your question...or did you
even ask a question? I couldn't tell. Are you going to tell me that your idea of modern is Barry Bonds?
Do you grade your topps heritage cards or are they already all mint 10's??
Fill us in member
JS
As for modern cards being about buy low, sell high, that may work in the baseball market, where rookie cards are produced several years before players make the majors, but in football and basketball (and now hockey), it's more about buy high and hope. Since these players are appearing on rookies just after they are drafted, everybody knows who is expected to make a major immediate impact, and the cards are priced accordingly. Unless you are able to pick out a diamond in the rough (Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Terrell Davis, or someone else not drafted high) that you pick up when the cards come out, it becomes a game of rapid reaction to pick up the player as soon as he starts getting hot.
The "best rookie" concept is fraught with danger for the collecting market, as it leads to collectors focusing almost exclusively on a few sets each year at the expense of all the others, and if a card manufacturer ends up not producing any of the most desirable sets, they will go out of business (see Pacific, and possibly see Fleer in a few years).
I foresee a backlash against the price difference betwene the "best rookies" and the rest of a player's serial numbered rookies within a few years, as collectors who want rookies of the top players from a few years previously decide to stop chasing the increasingly unavailable Bowman Chrome, SP Authentic, or similar card of a player, and instead turn to a far cheaper alternative.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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i'm well aware of the market value of PUJOLS bowman chrome auto, my son wants one for his collection. in december i tried to win one and i also tried to win the spx auto rookie. i think the bowman was a psa 10 i'm not too sure what grade the spx had on it. i wasn't going over 500 for either one. instead i got him a 94 sp arod in psa 9, 95 bowmans best (blue, not the refractor) vlad guerrero in psa 9, 91 ultra update ivan rodriguez in psa 10, and a 92 bowman piazza in psa 10 for less than 5 bills. eventually jr. will have a premium PUJOLs rookie (not gallery , bowman heritage, etc.) it will be during a season that PUJOLS doesn't make a triple crown run and it will be for less than what i would have to pay today.
is an 87 bonds considered vintage? most collectors would say the line between vintage and modern falls somewhere in the 70's a couple would say it's pre 70. PSA says the line is pre 72.
as far as topps heritage, i love those cards, they are beautiful and i think we can both agree on that. i usually buy 2 cases on a pre-sell during december, i take a week off during february and bust all the packs. i put my set together, i give all the chrome cards to my son, then i quickly list all my SP dupes on ebay before they start selling for a dollar a pop. then i pack the rest up and put them in my basement and wait for hot rookie card to emerge. when one does i'll run downstairs and grab the 10 or so that i have and look for psa 10 quality send them in and immediately sell them, then buy graded vintage.
this post has been edited for opinions nothing but facts are included.
year but that fall his cards were cold again...you probably could of picked up a bow chrome auto rookie
for half book! At that point he was considered another Greg Jeffries or Kevin Maas....but he came back
in 02 and still didn't get the respect despite matching his ROY stats...Now in 2003 he tore it up again and
now everyone is calling him the real deal...except now his cards have gone through the roof.
I hope your boy finds one one day...do you only collect rookies that have been graded?? Im curious
why?
Yes Im looking forward to heritage in a few weeks too....I attemped the chrome set last year but
are a handful of cards short. Maybe we can stay on each others trade list when the 04 stuff hits.
Kevin
I don't think people thought Pujols was Kevin Maas, but there is always some sort of letdown after a surprise like the season he had. During 2002, Pujols, Bonds, Ichiro, Prior, all those guys were softer than they had been during the season because the first wave of growth is almost always the strongest, and the market needs to sink a little for profits to be gained on the next increase. During 2002 I was picking up Prior and Pujols cards cautiously but steadily, and was also waiting for Don Baylor to make Prior's arm fall off or Pujols to finish at .288 and 24 homers. Thankfully, neither happened (yet). I couldn't bring myself to get into UD Ultimate Collections or Elite Extras (which was the more popular card at the time), though I wanted to. All those Fleer Platinum Priors or Bowman Pujols that I was able to scarf up for a buck or two came in handy last year, though.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
with the exception of topps heritage bb i don't collect anything but pre- 1980. in 2001 i saw the heritage at a local shop and was hooked, i was never big on insert cards but i like the grandstand glory cards. with my family being from n.y. , i would imagine that my father or grandfather may have sat on the piece of seat, ebbitts field, the polo grounds, old yankee stadium and even shibe park my father spent his summers in norristown pennsylvania he was childhood friends with vince piazza (mikes dad). i love to hear him talk about mantle, berra, campy, snider, mays, jackie robinson etc. and my grandfather would recall seeing ruth, gehrig, joe d , a young ted williams etc. the heritage product truly captures that nostalgia. and the old man gets a kick out of it.
as far as collecting graded rookies my son is into that and he is a stickler for conditon!! i'll pick up raw cards for him but only if i can have them in hand prior to buying. at 13 he likes to check the SMR to keep track of prices.....despite me telling him it's merely a guide and the card is only worth what someone will pay. he gets excited when he can pick up a thome rookie in psa 10 for half the SMR!
of course i would be willing to trade when heritage goes live, my son has dibs on the chrome and retrofractors but maybe we'll exchange lists . i know even with breaking 2 cases i'll still need some sp's.
p.s. when i posted lastnight i was on my 7 th corona and didn't mean to offend you, sorry if i did
"priceless"
players autograph on their real card is very nice. Topps always seems to get the rookie class of that
year to sign. You are almost guarenteed to sell the red autos at full book. I remember selling the
red autos in 2001 for 3X's high book. It was too bad that Eddie Mathews dies before he could sign
and that Doby chose not to sign (even though beckett still has him booked at 150!)
I guess we will be looking at Killebrew autos in this product...Im not sure if Koufax will sign anything
dogers anymore...that would be a very nice auto though.
Well it looks like modern and vintage collectors can agree on one thing! Keep in touch and I hope your
boy pulls something nice.
Kevin