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Lot's of collections coming up for sale!(any thoughts)

jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,780 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have been hearing and reading about a lot of collections going up for sale just recently. Many will be at the upcoming FUN show, but also several are going on E-bay, and even posted on the BST by several of the board members themselves.

I am curious to know what others feel are the reasons why so many people have deciding to part with there collections all of a sudden. and in some cases, these collections were thier main focus or passion(series)

any comments!

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Comments

  • Some state the reason is for taking profit before the prices fall again...Thats not my game...I intend to hold my series until they discontinue the series...Then again I collect moderns and maybe the collections you are talking about are of the older coins.
  • rainbowroosierainbowroosie Posts: 4,875 ✭✭✭✭
    It's the money, not the principle......image


    Buy low -- sell high!image
    "You keep your 1804 dollar and 1822 half eagle -- give me rainbow roosies in MS68."
    rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
  • merz2merz2 Posts: 2,474
    I'm not so sure it's profit taking.
    Don
    Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Jim, there seem to be lots of good collectors cashing out. I asked the same question awhile back, and one of the good answers was the current high market drawing out good material. Maybe that's right. The million dollar question is why. I'd think the set builders would be in no hurry if they thought the market was gaining momentum. Maybe they're early, maybe not.
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • LakesammmanLakesammman Posts: 17,460 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you look at the registry sets, the denominator is large - I suspect it's a few people selling for various reasons - health, jobs, different interests taking over, etc. I suspect the number of folks cashing out because their investment has "peaked" is small. I'll be at FUN, buying as usual.
    "My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
  • michaelmichael Posts: 9,524 ✭✭✭
    a bird in the hand is worth a million in the bush

    michael
  • I think many collectors who bought in during the last 2 highs are now so happy to get out near the top of their highs, that is why we have many collections coming out, plus the fact that people do just get older.
    Michael
  • So what does everyone’s gut tell them? Maybe it is just X-Mass being over, but my since of emergency to buy in a hurry seems to have left. When it comes down to it, emotions run markets up and down. Personally my buying emotions have calmed down over the holidays. If I am not an isolated case, and many others of you are having this cool down, then we might have a slower market next year. Every morning I go to Ebay and pull a couple of sections of “new today” in coins I collect. The new today section in my area had 6 pages rather than the normal 2 this morning. Many people on the board have talked about new sellers coming in next year to take profits on old collections, if there is a mini glut many dealers may decide to unload as well. If the gut of a majority of collectors is slower this might make for an interesting market next year. I guess the money show in Houston and the Fun show will give us a good indication.
  • GOLDSAINT, if you are referring to checking ebay this very morning, the number of listings being high is because yesterday was free listing day at ebay....Ken
  • Thanks Ken, That must explain it. I thought this was a little strange so soon after the holidays.
  • The higher prices being payed may be bringing them out.
    Pecunia in arbotis non crescit.
  • keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    i think it always comes down to money in the end and that's not necessarily a bad thing. all collectors have that single thing in common regardless of what they collect, how large their collection might be or how much money is spent. many probably see this as a good time to post a gain and wait for more stable, lower prices to dive back in. maybe they'll upgrade in areas they hold onto. there could be any number of reasons to sell, but in the end it comes down to the simple fact that prices are just to high to resist or risk missing.

    i recently did some wholesale clearing to take advantage of current prices and had some interesting results. overall i came out ahead but 2003 was an interesting year for prices and some of the modern pops. one example that highlights that are early 1970's Proof Jefferson Nickels. in February i submitted some coins and was able to holder two 1973's at PCGS in PR69DCAM, the first coins in quite some time to make that grade. i sold one to a forum member for $175 which at the time was a very fair price. within two months the number of PR69DCAM's in several of the 1971-1975 dates changed dramatically, including the 1973. in hindsight, i should have sold both coins and waited 6 months to buy one at around $50!!! maybe not the same thing that is bringing these collections to the block now, but you should see my point. with the prices rising almost daily in this current market, i just think many collectors don't want to risk missing out.

    i wonder how much of a shift we'll see in the pop's for some coins?? with all this seemingly "choice material" appearing suddenly, there are bound to be crackouts, reholders, crossovers and grade-guarantee's going on. by the time August and the ANA rolls around things could be very different. these are exciting times, aren't they??

    al h.image

    image
  • IrishMikeIrishMike Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭
    It is a good question and one that I have thought about too. All three of the top PCGS registered IHC proof sets are for sale at FUN 2004, seems odd but I suppose their is a logical explanation for this. Last year another one was sold. Its hard to believe that price would drive all three to the market at the same time. Am I missing something here?
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,311 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Maybe someone should contact the sellers or their agents and see if they will give an honest answer as to why the stuff is being sold.
    theknowitalltroll;
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    With the 3 top IHC sets hitting at the exact same time, it surely must be due to current prices than coincidence. Nothing goes up forever, esp. at the strong rates seen in many registry sets over the past 1-2 years. Profit taking is always a normal part of any market
    run up. While those areas take breathers, others will pick up the flag and run with it.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    this is one of those things that can get thought to death when the answer is really the obvious one. if you're confused, look for a post by dorkkarl, reread Occams Razor and make a decision.

    $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for whatever reason!!image

    al h.image
  • IrishMikeIrishMike Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭
    keets you're just no fun. image. Some sort of conspiracy theory would be much more interesting.
  • nwcsnwcs Posts: 13,386 ✭✭✭
    I sold off 90% of my collection because I realize that now is a good time. Better to sell it before the peak of the market than when the inevitable correction occurs. Besides, it helped fund my new car. image And new windows for the house, new sewage lines, new insulation, etc. But I'm not out of the game. I've found a new and compelling place to collect. Choice and up Jeffs of 1938-1975 and all the error ones that haven't been claimed yet. MUCH cheaper this way. And since most are raw, even cheaper. I'll only submit for resale now.
  • WindycityWindycity Posts: 3,547 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I am one of those sellers. My Washington Quarter set is in the Heritage auction. I have worked for 7 or so years building the set and, as I have done with many collections in the past, I finish the set and then sell it and start on another series. Haven't yet decided exactly which series to go after now but I enjoy the hunt too much to sit on the sidelines. Just a matter of time before I am buying again.
    <a target=new class=ftalternatingbarlinklarge href="http://www.mullencoins.com">Mullen Coins Website - Windycity Coin website
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm selling my Lincoln MS wheaties because it has gotten too expensive for me to improve the set substantially. Not much fun if you can't work on your collection. Better to move on to other things. I'm not at all sure the run-up on Lincolns is over with, but the timing's good enough for me.
  • As jbsteven would attest to...the market is WHITE HOT !! Selling into the strength and getting WHITE HOT pricesimage
  • PushkinPushkin Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭
    I'm selling off most of my Indian Head cent registry set to purchase some very beautiful Flying Eagles cents, and to focus on just a few Indian Head cents that I feel emotionally attached to. My personal goal was to complete a set of IHCs (NGC Registry complete IHC set, PCGS partial) with exceptional eye appeal for the grade, not to accumulate the most points. That goal was accomplished, so I've decided to focus on Flyers and some nice IHC varieties.


    Three years of Flyers will take up a lot less space than fifty years of IHCs. image

    Bottom line, for me it is a slight shift in emphasis, and a consolidation - I just have too many coins.
  • merz2merz2 Posts: 2,474
    I have gone and looked at the Fun Show auctions.If you look at the sets,there isn't much room for bettering them.I would tend to agree with dpoole.The hunt is the motivating force.I'm still trying to improve my set!!!
    Don
    Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
  • I guess if your main motive is profit, while the market is going up is a good time to sell and of course financial emergencies dictate selling no matter the market, such was my case this spring, but unlike pure investments like buying gold for bullion value or stocks, coins, especially your favorite pieces are harder to part with even if your sitting on a paper profit. Am I crazy for not wanting to sell my best pieces while the coin market is hot ?

    I'd like to know my coins are worth at least 80 % of what I paid for them, and I'd sell the pieces that weren'y my favorites if I could get most of my money out of them, but my favorites are sitting right where they are unless someone offers me "stupid" money for them.

    Les
    The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
  • stmanstman Posts: 11,352 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hi Barberlover.... the trick to be offered "Stupid" money for your favorites, is to show them to somebody.image
    Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!
  • PushkinPushkin Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭


    << <i>the trick to be offered "Stupid" money for your favorites, >>



    I think "stupid money" is a term more often used by those who don't receive it. image

  • St man,

    Good point, and I have shown a number of people all of whats left of my collection in person and some of my coins have been pictured on this site.

    My former 1877 CC quarter which stirred up so much controversy in several different threads brought a worlds record price fore the date in any grade.

    My Icon coin was posted both obverse and reverse earlier this year and thanks to Russ was put in the Icon section of the website so I could make it my Icon coin.

    My 1861 seated quarter may not be everybodys cup of tea because it has original non picasso like toning, but the luster is as full as you'll see on a 65 and the surface quality in my opionion was undegraded a point because it isn't blast white.

    All of these have been pictured on this site at various times this year, unfortunatly, I don't have a p.c. or a digital camera so I can't show the others over the net. My point was emotion is a big part of selling your favorite pieces if your attached to them and don't think they could be easily replaced.

    Les
    The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,691 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Many collectors may be reaching the point where they feel the need to reduce their numismatic exposure. Coin collectors tend to be very investment oriented so selling into what they think is a strong market makes sense. I just read that about 20,000 auction lots will be offered during the FUN convention period. My gut feeling is that this will prove to be too many for the market to absorb. While I am sure all of the auction houses will report strong sales I think a bit more examination of the prices realized may reveal some real softness in the market, though the softness may be in just select areas that were previously hot.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • Here’s one possible theory. Coin collections coming to market could be a reaction to the perception that “money” is getting tighter. As the corporate class continue to fire and layoff the middle class from employment, many collections could be FORCED to come to market. Consider this:

    Walmart (middle class shopping) announced poor Christmas sales. Other “middle class” retailers announced pretty much the same dismal results. However, Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, and others (upper ticket shopping) have been announcing STRONG Christmas sales. Why the divergence?

    Because the ones who do the firing are STILL working and accordingly still shopping (they have fired everyone but themselves). The management class just went shopping with the huge end of the year bonus they paid themselves with the excess money saved by their firing of so many good middle class workers (even the shareholders are getting diddly).

    Naturally, the unemployed prize eating and paying for Cobra health insurance even more than they prize their VF graded 1916-D Mercury Dimes. When the rubber meets the road, FOOD and medicine will trump coins every time. And so.....the vf 1916-D must go!

    THIS dynamic could be what is causing so many good collections (and other assets) to be coming to market: whether on Ebay or any other venue. When we have money we rarely sell the things that we love and would otherwise “hold.” I wonder how MUCH money from sold coins is going towards paying bills rather than buying more coins? I wonder how many “advances” the auction houses are doling out to consignors? matteproof
    Remember Lots Wife
  • One other point to add to matteproofs, is that in the high tech industry over the last 3 years many exec's got laid off or move out if the companies failed. Most of these were babyboomers, many making 6 figure incomes.
    Even as the economy improves these people will not get rehired, unless they take drastic pay cuts.
    Why hire a 55 ish V.P. for $125,000 when the universities are pumping out young tigers that will take those jobs
    for $35,000. Of the tens of thousands of these jobless boomers some had to have great coin collections and are ready to sell.
  • I posted the below thread this morning, and last week I post one about lots of rarer coins coming for sale on Ebay that I had not seen before. Superior is also starting a big auction with lots of rareities. I know I have only been back collecting hard for a few months, and perhaps this is my imagination, but why are some of these big dealers selling these rarites way below Trends before the FUN show and the hot winter season?I thought this market was supposed to be WHITE HOT? It should be easy for a big dealer to lay these type coins off at these prices to another dealer. Does this mean that most dealers have become sellers and not buyers?


    Check this out, ever wanted to own a Gobrecht dollar, or a 1794 Bust half, or a MS 66 09 S vdb, this seller put these on Ebay this morning plus 2 AU 93 S morgans and 2 1907 HR $20 GOLDS and much more.

    Here is a link to paste:

    http://cgi6.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewSellersOtherItems&userid=anitacoin&include=0&since=-1&sort=3&rows=50
  • "Most of these were babyboomers, many making 6 figure incomes.
    Even as the economy improves these people will not get rehired, unless they take drastic pay cuts.
    Why hire a 55 ish V.P. for $125,000 when the universities are pumping out young tigers that will take those jobs for $35,000.


    Goldsaint you are right on the money. I recently read an article that said it was nearly impossible for a formerly employed man over 40 to find equivalent employment (or any employment!). Many of my neighbors - quite a few over 40 - are currently unemployed. Many of them are unemployed for LONG periods of time now (over one year). Those ones are not even counted in the "unemployment figures" yet they remain unemployed. All of them are "melting" financially.

    America's "aristocracy," the corporate elitists, remain employed, overpaid, stock option laden, and bonus granted. These same ones carry a big FIRING stick that they pink slip to everyone excluding themselves and their cronies. Yet, it is THEIR failures (and many scandals) that have given rise to the reshuffling of corporations everywhere; where layoffs are supposed to be "good" for America. The corporate brainwash of a so-called "jobless recovery" is both cruel and self-serving. There are many pawns in this fantastic redistribution of wealth now long underway in our culture.

    The most recent insult is the granting of end of year bonuses to this management ilk coming at the expense of so many excellent but now fired middle class workers. It's no small wonder that great collections are coming to the market (and homes, cars, guitars and grandpa's old saxophone too). You are right - Ebay is now loaded with some VERY prize coins. matteproof
    Remember Lots Wife
  • Catch22Catch22 Posts: 1,086 ✭✭
    I love it when we start getting posts about the "corporate elite", the "poor, taken advantage of middle class" and all that garbage. Corporate America is always to blame for all the social ills of todays society. Well, that is absurdity on stilts as Jonah Golberg would say.

    I doubt there is a single entrpreneur who started their business with the goal of providing jobs and handing out welfare checks to underpriveleged. They started their business to prosper and create wealth for themselves...a most noble endeaver. Nobody owes you a job or is responsible for your welfare. An individuals right to property is what made this country as wealthy as it is today and we have all benefited from the creators of wealth. If you don't like it, start your own wealth creation venture and stop blaming those that gave you a job in the first place...you pitiful fools.


    When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.

    Thomas Paine
  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 24,691 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Over the next year I am selling off my entire collection. Much of the money raised will be to fund my own business. Being 56, and having no illusions about anyone wanting to hire me, this is the only way to go. Over the holidays I was having a discussion with my nephew and niece who are 7 and 5 respectively. I am trying to get them thinking about starting their own business/profession from the very start. I don't even want them thinking about working for some corporation or the government.
    All glory is fleeting.
  • I checked currency exchange today. It will now cost you $1.77 to buy a British pound and $1.24 to buy a Euro. Whats the point? Are you really getting that strong of price? What will you buy with the bucks?
  • Hi catch22. Thank you for your comments. You said; "I doubt there is a single entrepreneur who started their business with the goal of providing jobs and handing out welfare checks to underprivileged." You mistake the words "entrepreneur" for corporate elite. They are two entirely different things. An entrepreneur creates things. A corporate elite creates nothing and derives from that which the entrepreneur created.

    You said; "Nobody owes you a job..."" This is true and should be equally applied at every level of the corporate structure. Unfortunately, the only jobs that ARE protected are those of the corporate elite. The jobs of the working class folks are vulnerable and subject to what you have described. The jobs of the corporate elite are for the most part NOT subject to what you describe.

    You said; "...or is responsible for your welfare." I disagree. I feel Society IS responsible for it's neighbor's welfare. A decent and moral society has an obligation to lift his neighbor up when he is down.

    You said; "An individuals right to property is what made this country as wealthy as it is today... I agree strongly with you that property rights are essential. I disagree that the right to property is what made this country wealthy. Property rights are what make INDIVIDUALS wealthy - and that wealth is ONLY good if it's righteously obtained. Otherwise it is tyranny.

    You said; "...and we have all benefitted from the creators of wealth." Maybe you have. Many have not. I have benefitted from my OWN efforts and GOD's grace (and not in that order). The "creators of wealth" have benefitted from those who have labored hard while many (though not all) of those so-called "creators of wealth" play golf at the country club and vote themselves absurd bonuses, golden parachutes and other corporate elite perks for doing little or nothing.

    You said; "If you don't like it, start your own wealth creation venture and stop blaming those that gave you a job in the first place..." I always have been in business for myself which created many jobs for others. When business was bad I cut MY compensation to zero FIRST before I would ever dream of laying people off. Dynamics like that NEVER take place among the "corporate elite." Quite the opposite.

    You said; "...you pitiful fools." Pity is in the eyes of the beholder. I choose to pity the scores of unemployed people in this country whose only misfortune was to be working under the power and authority of an "everything for me and nothing for you" mentality that reeks among the corporate culture today. Thank you again for your thoughts Catch22. I appreciate your input. matteproofimage
    Remember Lots Wife
  • Hi manocoins. Thank you for your comments. You said; "Goldsaint and Matteproof: The problem with your theory is that you guys are about 6-12 months late. If you two have not noticed the stock market is up about 25-30% this year and unemployment keeps getting lower." . The stock market is up from it's extreme lows. It is still nowhere near it's extreme highs. The rally in the stock market has little to do with corporate governance and ethics. Stock markets rise and fall in EVERY economic circumstance. Savvy investors profit when the markets rise and FALL. Your observation about unemployment is not born out by the facts. Even those who share your view admit that this so-called recovery is a "jobless recovery." Those unemployed for long periods of time are NOT counted in the unemployment figures - yet they still remain unemployed. It's like coins that are cracked out of holders that are NOT counted in the population reports because those who cracked the coins did not send in the cracked slabs. The coins are cracked and residing in new holders but the population reports don't bear that out. The unemployment figures possess a similar dynamic.

    You said; ". I highly doubt any of these top ranked sets are being sold off because of unemployment or catastrophic financial problems." Your doubts might surprise you. You suppose that top ranked sets are owned by billionaies only. This may be true in some instances but certainly not all. Many superior coins are held by very average income collectors. "Aged inventory" can be in the hands of modest collectors just as valuable homes bought for a song fifty years ago (now worth very much) can be owned by men of modest means. A man who purchased a waterfront beach house for very little money in South Carolina fifty years ago is today a millionaire - even though his income may be at or near the poverty level.

    You said; "In fact it is quite natural to sell and move on to other ares of interest." True. However, my sense is that many collections are being sold to raise cash, not necessarily to buy coins from other series but for living or other expenses. This is obviously not always the case, but far more often than many would care to admit. Thank you for your thoughs manocoins. matteproof
    image
    Remember Lots Wife
  • it's very interesting to seeing both sides of these questions in the same forum
    I Have to Wonder a few years down the road as to who will buy these items or good or services
    maybe with the out scorching of workers and lay offs they'll sell them over seas
    but with the shipping prices and low costs over seas I doubt it
    I think this country is going down a slippery slope cutting out the middle class
    you can really see why the work ethic in this country is the way it is
    anyway it goes we'll see a few years down the road at most
  • merz2merz2 Posts: 2,474
    I have said this before on other threads.I'm waiting to see what happens to the Lincoln Cent in 2009.When it turns 100 years old.I know the prices realized are great,but what will they be if they do away with the cent or change it ?image
    Don
    Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
  • ARCOARCO Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The selling cycle is a natural function of collectors. I doubt those selling are privy to insiders knowledge of which way the coin market is heading.

    Selling collections coincide with opportune moments when the most visibility and highest number of bidders can come together, such as the Big national shows like FUN.

    Collectors on average are older white males who after years or decades of collecting are either selling to collect another series, or selling to pursue other ventures for themselves and their families.

    Most of my Barber halves, while not terrible expensive were obtained from two long time collectors who passed away. Had death not come to them, they would have kept their coins.

    After some years collecting I have realized conclusively that for me and probably most others, that the joy of collecting is in the hunt and set building, not in the storing of coins in bank safety deposit boxes (subliminal hint Jim...sell, sell, sell). Once a set is done, if the dollar value is great, then selling to recycle money back for the hunt makes perfect sense.

    Tyler

  • My main point here has generally to do with what might happen to the coin market, most would agree the economy is getting better. As many have said here before there is no doubt that the baby-boomer generation is the largest coin-collecting group in the U.S. Many in this group because of the recent economic down turn have been surprised by a very early retirement. Many of this group would have sold their collections to pay for retirement anyway, the question is how many will now sell early. The retirement of this large group will affect many sectors of the national economy over the next few years. The math on this is simple. When you go from earning a 6-figure income to a retirement income of 4 figures, you must cut your monthly nut down, or spend your savings. That savings can be in many forms, coins, gold, stocks, real-estate, etc. starting now and continuing on for the next several years millions of large homes will come on the market and lots of older coin collections will come for sale. What is going to happen to the Mutual funds when the majority calls with a sell orders, not because the economy is bad?
    ARCO, here is what my opinion is of how the dealers decide if the market is getting slower, If a dealer that has been able to sell anything of quality the last two years can’t sell his items to other dealers, he starts getting pretty nervous. This market is not the NYSE there is not always going to be a buyer the instant you want to sell. Dealers make money-moving items through their inventory, when that stops they have to blow stuff out the door. I think the question here is that starting to happen?
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,731 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I think the question here is that starting to happen? >>



    Even if it were starting to happen, it should be mostly invisable at the current time.
    There are huge numbers of returning collectors who would absorb any excess sup-
    ply should it develop.

    Supply is best thought of as total supply rather than merely "apparent" supply which
    is what one sees on the market. Apparent supply has a great variability in good times
    and bad, but is not a major factor in determining prices except to the degree to which
    it can influence demand.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.


  • "There are huge numbers of returning collectors"


    Cladking, What I have read on the forum the last few months is that there are indeed NEW collectors coiming into the market but they are buying MODERN'S and American Eagles. Who are these " returning collectors" ?
    I admit I have not been to any big time shows yet but the two regionals I went to were pretty dull on both sides of the isle. I know from other threads that many current collectors have felt a sense of urgency this year and have filled lots of hole thinking this market would just keep going up, but when your finished with your main collecting goal your buying must slow down. It seems from other postings here that many collectors consider the hunt the most important thing and once that is done they often become sellers, and with the sales tools on the NET they also become semi- dealers? One thing that is interesting, after my posting this morning on ANITACOIN I went and looked at what " ANITA" was buying. Just as others had said MR. ANITA was buying lots of other dealers items, in fact there were 2 pages of bids just in 30 days. At that point I went and looked at some of the dealers I buy from on a regular basis. Guess what? Many of these dealers are just trading sales on EBAY. They buy em, clean em, slab em, resubmit em, and many times another dealer buys them. How much of this market is just going around in a circle before it finally is put in a collection ????
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,731 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It may be perhaps a fine distinction, but returning collectors are newbies who are
    baby boomers (or nearly) who collected as children in the "circulation finds" era. They
    became reinterested in coins when the states coins were introduced. For the main part
    they show relatively little interest in moderns and opt for the coins they collected as child-
    ren or young adults. Some of these collectors are also branching into other areas which
    can include moderns. Nearly half the people who were collecting back in the old days who
    are still around are collecting again, and they have significant financial resources.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,663 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would also include among "returning collectors" those people who collected coins in their childhood through early teens, lost interest (or it became less of a priority) through high school and college and early adulthood, and then they regained interest in numismatics once they had enough money to buy the types of coins they could not afford when they were younger. I count myself among them.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,731 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i><<Nearly half the people who were collecting back in the old days who are still around are collecting again, and they have significant financial resources.>>

    Cladking, just how do arrive at such an estimate and what is yout sense of what this figure is in real numbers? That seems like a rather large figure consider how many people use to collect back in the old days.

    Based on my attendance at Santa Clara and Long Beach for the last dozen or so years, the number of people attending these particular shows, don't seem to be dramatically more, at least based on my casual perception. >>



    Many of the returning collectors are not significantly more advanced than they were when
    they got out of collecting. They are not buying a lot of books yet or going to shows but they
    are buying coins.

    These guesses are based on sampling and a little polling and are highly colored by my per-
    sonal experiences and local factors. I would guess that there are more than 5,000,000 re-
    turning collectors and this is much of the source of the demand which is pushing up the prices
    of classic coins. There has also been some speculation based on the large numbers of "new"
    collectors and a general exuberance in the hobby. So long as the new younger collectors stay
    aboard and continue to learn it would seem that this exuberance is justified. Even if they don't
    it may be several years until the increasing demand of the returnees, speculators, and newbies
    isn't sufficient to absorb the supply.
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
  • CATCH 22... DOUBLE DITTOS!
  • VERY HEAVY COMPLICATED TOPIC AND MY PREVIOUS ANSWER WAS JUST TOO SHORT. HERE'S MY ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS SOME POINTS...... THERE HAVE BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT CORPORATE "ELITE" BUSINESSES THAT PROVIDE JOBS, STIMULATE THE ECONNMY AND MAKE THIS COUNTRY THE BEST IN THE WORLD. EXAMPLES: MICRO SOFT (I HEAR EACH EMPLOYEE IS A MILLIONARE), GE, SOUTHWEST, ETC. HOWEVER WHEN ECONOMIES CRASH... 9/11, COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO CUT EXPENDITURES, THUS LAY-OFFS. IT'S CALLED SURVIVAL. I WOULD BET THAT TOP EXECUTIVES ALSO SEE CUTS, MOST DO CARE ABOUT THEIR EMPLOYEES, WITHOUT THEM NO COMPANY. WE HAVE MANY STRONG, GOOD COMPANIES! TOO MANY PEOPLE REMEMBER THE BAD APPLES, ENRON! WHERE A COMPANY IS FRADULENT. IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, WE DON'T LIVE IN A PERFECT WORLD. ON COIN COLLECTIONS FOR SALE, MANY COLLECTORS PURCHASE COINS TO TURN A PROFIT OR FOR AN INVESTMENT. IF PRICES ARE HIGH, YOU SELL.
  • Manocoins, I am sorry I did not explain my income drop point well. I was not suggesting that the Boomers were going to be broke, just that they would have to make a big adjustment. This happens to every retiree, its just that this is a very large group and they will do it all at one time. So if you had a gross income of $130,000 per year or $10,833 per month, and retired, your S.C. check might be $2,400 and a pension of $850. If you sell your $200,000 Mutual fund and invest in safe income investments at 6% that will give you an additional $1,000 per month. This brings in $4,250 gross. These numbers might have to be adjusted since if your outside income from investments and pension money is to high your S.C. drops. If your monthly nut is greater than your projected retirement income you must pay off Morgages etc. to get that nut down.I guess if you were really careful you might be able to buy a few coins each year?

    Hey Guys, I am guessing here like the rest of you! The new Heritage sale next week should give us all an indication of how strong the 2004 coin market will be. This sale is now posted on Ebay and we should be able to look at prices after the sale. WOW 13,876 lots!
  • Hi Kuch. Thank you for your thoughts. You said; "COMPANIES ARE FORCED TO CUT EXPENDITURES, THUS LAY-OFFS. IT'S CALLED SURVIVAL..." Your argument would be more potent if the ones being laid off were the ones who caused the company's problems to begin with - the elitist management class. Why haven't they been fired FIRST or at least proportionately? Why haven't the elitist's robustly cut their seven figure salaries FIRST before firing others? The answers are obvious. If cutting expenditures is the true goal, then getting rid of grossly overpaid executives, cutting elitist perks, and cutting other elitist expenses (limos, golden parachutes, etc) makes more sense than firing already underpaid working class personnel.

    You said; "WOULD BET THAT TOP EXECUTIVES ALSO SEE CUTS... Quite the contrary. Top executives have been giving themselves additional pay and bonuses AFTER they have fired thousand of others. The working class have paid for those bonuses through their layoffs. The shareholders did NOT receive that dividend which should have been paid to them (if to anyone) not the elitists.

    You said; "...MOST DO CARE ABOUT THEIR EMPLOYEES,.." Sounds nice. But it's not correct. The evidence is in the reality of the firings and aftermath. Fired employees are forgotten the moment they are marched out of the building by security.

    You said; " ...WITHOUT THEM NO COMPANY" Companies exist by operation of law. They are not created to be shrines (and piggy banks) for the executive class. Corporations are created entities, with corporate charters and perpetual life. If anyone in the corporate structure holds the honor you suggest it is the SHAREHOLDERS not the executive class. Without the shareholders there would be no company. The corporate elitists are simply EMPLOYEES of the company - and by extension - employees of the shareholders.

    You said; "WE HAVE MANY STRONG, GOOD COMPANIES!" I agree. Thanks be to GOD. We also have many elitists in management positions at good companies who are enriching themselves at the expense of shareholders and fired/laid off employees.

    You said; "TOO MANY PEOPLE REMEMBER THE BAD APPLES, ENRON!.. On the contrary. Too many people have already forgotten about ENRON. Additionally, the ENRON scandal has little to do with the pervasive corporate culture of firing thousands and benefiting the executive class at the expense of the many (they are different issues). Nearly every large corporation has engaged in massive layoffs of the working class - but not the elitist class. Why? Additionally, that same elitist bunch is stubbornly refusing to restart the hiring process. Why? If the so called "recovery" were true (as the elitists insist it is) then where is the hiring to back it up? It ain't!

    You said; "...MANY COLLECTORS PURCHASE COINS TO TURN A PROFIT OR FOR AN INVESTMENT. IF PRICES ARE HIGH, YOU SELL." Generally speaking, that is NOT the mentality of a numismatist. While collectors do wish to make a profit when they sell, the fact that a profit may be available does not necessarily mean that they will sell. That is why so many great collections remain intact with the same owner for so many years. However, when the NEED to sell arises (for whatever reason) those coins may come to market in droves (the original question posed on this thread). Your suggestion implies that many numismatists are so-called "investors" in coins. This may not be so. I feel that many (most?) collectors buy coins because they love them. The so-called "coin investor" in the purest sense may not be as plentiful as you suggest. Most “investors” depend upon highly liquid markets (i.e. stock exchanges, options exchanges, etc). Coins rarely offer the extreme liquidity prized by most investors (“efficient market theory”). Furthermore, while coin prices are said to be high - I see that many prices are also low. I routinely see coins priced LOWER today than they were even two years ago. If prices were truly high, then you should have no problem routinely selling to a dealer the coins you bought six months or one year ago for a profit. Thank you again for your input Kuch. I appreciate your thoughts. matteproof image
    Remember Lots Wife

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