WHY ALL THIS "RENEWED INTEREST" IN GOLD NOW? SUCKERS !
doop
Posts: 357
Folks: you MUST pay attention, especially about bullion investing. I have one for you about my brother in law.
I perusing the 12/23 Coin World and on page 3 this article about gold breaking the 400 barrier, blah blah, blah. Who do you think the sellers are today to these "renewed interest" buyers ?
I'll tell you one ANYONE can relate to. Same applies to cert coins like pcgs/ngc ms66 & ms67 morgans less than a year ago could be had easily for $150 & $400 range respectively now sight unseen bidding at $225 and $700+.
Back 2 years ago I convinced my brother in law to lay down 100k into gold krugs @ $262 an ounce. I charged him $2 an ounce. We could get them before spot passed over $275. Fortunately,there were plenty enough to be had on Coin net in 4 or 5 calls in 20 minutes of one morning. I bought him 385 ounces, his net was avg $264 an ounce.
Ok, he's in at $101,640 for 385 ounces.
I just finished moving all 385 ounces for $410 per, less my minimal $2 an ounce.
Ok he's out of em this morning, net in hand $157,080 less a few hundred in registered shipping and ins.
That is a net profit $55,440.00 in just a fuzz over 2 years of holding.
That's a 54% profit in his pocket off a $101,640 investment.
The time to have an "interest" in bullion or certain rare coin issues is when the stuff if by market comparison tooooooooooo cheeeeeeeeeeeeep.
Today's buyers from the bullion to the mint products are the true SUCKERS that buy from the sellers of today who were quiet buyers 2 years ago.
I perusing the 12/23 Coin World and on page 3 this article about gold breaking the 400 barrier, blah blah, blah. Who do you think the sellers are today to these "renewed interest" buyers ?
I'll tell you one ANYONE can relate to. Same applies to cert coins like pcgs/ngc ms66 & ms67 morgans less than a year ago could be had easily for $150 & $400 range respectively now sight unseen bidding at $225 and $700+.
Back 2 years ago I convinced my brother in law to lay down 100k into gold krugs @ $262 an ounce. I charged him $2 an ounce. We could get them before spot passed over $275. Fortunately,there were plenty enough to be had on Coin net in 4 or 5 calls in 20 minutes of one morning. I bought him 385 ounces, his net was avg $264 an ounce.
Ok, he's in at $101,640 for 385 ounces.
I just finished moving all 385 ounces for $410 per, less my minimal $2 an ounce.
Ok he's out of em this morning, net in hand $157,080 less a few hundred in registered shipping and ins.
That is a net profit $55,440.00 in just a fuzz over 2 years of holding.
That's a 54% profit in his pocket off a $101,640 investment.
The time to have an "interest" in bullion or certain rare coin issues is when the stuff if by market comparison tooooooooooo cheeeeeeeeeeeeep.
Today's buyers from the bullion to the mint products are the true SUCKERS that buy from the sellers of today who were quiet buyers 2 years ago.
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<< <i>Today's buyers from the bullion to the mint products are the true SUCKERS that buy from the sellers of today who were quiet buyers 2 years ago. >>
I am happy for him and his gain. No one knows if todays buyers are suckers or not. No one can predict what the value will be in 2 years from now.
Cameron Kiefer
coin markets and economies have up and down times. We happen to be in a up time so enjoy.
I looked at a house yesterday. Actually, I looked at a "commercial" building AND a house. Purpose? To see what a "mortgage broker" was offering to pay me 12.25% on a FIRST for. Holy cow! The comm'l building was on a lot that was about 3 sq ft more than the structure. (Meaning of course that no business permit would be issued to ANY new owner) The HOUSE looked like something from Kosovo. WITH armed guerillas. It actually comped out at an actual TWO HUNDRED GRAND! For a WAR ZONE. Only about 35k below decent "human being" neighborhoods. I do NOT have the balls to do anything like that.
BUT....what REALLY scares me is that BANKS (and Freddie Mac, FNMA, etc) own MARKET rate paper on stuff like that.
Many many MANY are saying it is beyond mathematical possibility for the current borrowed funds to generate enough PROFIT (Income, appreciation, etc) to possibly pay back the loans, what I see is that the COLLATERAL for that lending is in even WORSE shape.
But of course the Fed looks at those mortgages and since they are on the bank books as ASSETS, it certainly qualifies for the fractional reserves needed to get even MORE stupid money to loan to these animals.
Gold looks better and better. In fact, it looks as if no matter WHAT the price of gold is, it is a preferable store of wealth (?) than anything else out there.
Yesterday was a SCARY day. We are no longer a "house of cards" CARD houses would be worth MORE than what I saw.
NONE of this (whatever it is) can last. There may or may not be a shortage of SILVER, but there's definitely gonna be a shortage of GEESE cuz ALL of em are pretty close to being cooked.
It would take more guts than I have to short gold or sell my stash right now.
Worst case scenario I can see is a pullback to 380-390 and then whoosh.
I ...... HAVE...... been wrong before.
Currently I am holding gold, gold stocks, REITs, bonds, and INCOME investments.
I really think we have an interesting time ahead very shortly.
But.....taking a profit won't break anyone.
Just not here and not yet.
I am frankly quite fearful of our debt laden future.
Who knows?
But when a $200,000 mortgage on a SHACK allows the bank to get 2 MILLION more from the Fed to make even MORE loans on more SHACKS......well.........we better start watching out.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You could even use your IRA to invest in (gulp) gold, though in my opinion that would be a bad use of a tax-sheltered account.
<< <i>That is a net profit $55,440.00 in just a fuzz over 2 years of holding. >>
What is equally impressive to me is that you posted it using the "ENTER" key and not as one long run-on paragraph.
See y'all doop(s) knows of what he speaks it is just easier to understand now.
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since 8/1/6
Doop
What were the issues that gave you confidence that gold was going to make the move it has over the last two years?
I'm no economist by a long shot (one course on economics in high school and a couple of books) but I do recognize that this country is swimming in debt and as mentioned by topstuf probably a significant amount of bad debt that's never going to be repaid.
But in a significant sense this have been fundamentally true for decades. Was it the prospect of spending the surplus and running deficients that has cause the jump? Does the much heralded economic recover (if it really does take hold) make this NOT the time for getting heavily into gold or do you think this recovery is an illusion and higher debt and a continued or deeper recession is ahead in the not too distant future?
my concern would be where to get the $100K in the first place!!
al h.
You mean, a seller thinks it's time to get out? What are the odds???
Saddam's got it
There were no directions for that investment to go BUT up given the way the gold market is played out
around the world. 99% of coin and bullion dealers and the heavy hitters on wall st and around the world holding gigantic physical reserves. The question was how far up in how short of time for maximum gain. You (me) just know when something cant get much cheaper without destroying the core fabric of the market itself. He started to get out a while back real quick around $315-320 but watching and participating in the action on a daily basis I held him off. As it hit 350,360,380,90 most everyone who works these markets,not just us little peon coin and bullion dealers but the MAJOR players around the world who by the way were also scooping it up for hold by being silent buyers from the cheap sellers 2 years ago were waiting for that magical "break point". It happened to be $400 and knowing the likelyhood was the $400 break would cause a scurry and would stretch at least 10 or 20 bucks more over 400 out of the spot (remember these are the ones who were putting billions into 260 gold). Those bigger players,not the daily rollover ones but the short term 2-3 year players who "work and manipulate" the spot system with billions (thats with a 'b' and lots of em) they are the ones who are all now going to begin unloading ASAP. It's happening right now, even down to the peons like us.
Here is the problem the way i see it and have numerous times before: These "renewed interest" players,their real dollars are not going to add up to the available currently being sold quanities. Thus, it's likely we'll see $350 real soon long before we'll ever see $450. Today's buyers bucks will run out. The profits will have been sponged away from today's buyers. The ones with the REAL money are the ones who manipulated it up to make them the REAL dough.
It's a supply/demand thing along with available reserve releases around the world.
It's not at all a gamble unless you dont really understand the above.
It's like another customer local who has about $50g in pcgs and ngc ms66 and ms67 common date morgans who is also about to rapidly unload all in one whack and also have reaped that same 50-60%
Those of you who are not aware of the drives up and the pushes down in certified coins are also not going to "get it" either. The money gets "sponged out" of the todays' buyers of $700+ ms67 morgans. They are NOT worth that people. Once enough larger holders of the MS67's today pots have been emptied by the heavier Dealers holding the bulk of em have cashed in, then likewise in turn it is more likely by far having watched this a dozen times over 17/18 yrs of slabbin we will see $500 67's before we see $850 67's
And as the world turns all one needs is a view from the inside. The entire world is manipulated
I refer to just generic sight unseen ones which in turn dictates the seen levels for pq,color coins,etc
I have news for you and your brother in law, you sold out way too soon.
I hope he is the forgiving kind as I'm betting we'll see $650 or more before we see $350, if we ever see $350 again.
Should have waited till after the Presidential election next November. I expect a rocket ride in both silver and gold then. 18 months from now he could have tripled or better his gain.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
i can certainly appreciate your willingness to take a risk. i just hope you realize it takes quite a bit to push the price up, even more to hold it there, but almost nothing to cause it to crash very quickly. what i think doops is saying is right on the mark, hopefuly others will read it and look past any personal feelings towards him from the past that they may have.
the irony is that the sellers with the major money who are unloading now will take the profits with a smile and put it somewhere safe until others, perhaps you, are forced to sell at a lower level. in that manner they make money on both the rise and the fall. they simply have the ability to freeze up larger cash amounts than average people like us and it benefits them.
the markets which influence these rises and falls are for the most part manipulated. why is it that the spikes are short lived and the valleys very wide? time is always working to the advantage of the large investors and against the small speculator. that's how it's designed by those at the top.
perhaps i sound paranoid. perhaps i am wrong.
Should have waited till after the Presidential election next November. I expect a rocket ride in both silver and gold then. 18 months from now he could have tripled or better his gain.
very interesting thought, though i believe wrong. more likely is the price of gold under $350/ounce by mid Februaryheady down at a slow pace to stick at $320 till after the elections.
remember, you heard it here first.
al h.
Gold will continue to rise and rise and rise. Just watch.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Wish I could say one way or the other. I couldn't afford it at the bottom, and I can't afford it now (as an investment). I only invest money that that I can live without and that gets harder to come by everyday. And what I have is buying less no matter what other people try to tell me.
I just think PMs have no where to go but up as resources decline, and investors burned by paper turn to hard assets.
If I'm wrong and the stock market does take off, demand should rise for industrial use (largest consumer). Either way it rises.
How high it goes will depend on investors at this point. Where is your confidence? Watching the moves daily on the world market,
my vote says PMs are becoming more of an investment vehicle to more people everyday.
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Interesting interpretation. Time will tell of course, as always.
Me feeling about the election are that things will be held at an artificial even keel untill then, that's the way it's always been done.
After Bush is re-elected all bets are off. One way out of the deep US debt is to allow for inflation, paying back debts with lesser value dollars.
As far as being forced to sell out at a cheaper rate in the future, that doesn't really apply to me. I am fortunate to have a job with security that leaves me over 6 figures after taxes and all my yearly expenses.
No, I don't live in a shack and ride a city bus either. I don't have a $500,000 home, but I don't want nor need one. My children are grown and on their own, I have a big 4 bedroom house as it is for me and 3 cats.
I could pay off the house anytime I want to, but at 4.75 % I feel I can do better with my money. Plus I do waste some of it on a 650 HP AWD/AWS Twin turbo monster, another sports car and a truck. All paid for.
I'm just an average guy, taking a bit of a gamble and putting nearly all my eggs into one basket for the next few years. If I win, I retire early and wealthy. If I lose, I still have a great life and I retire not quite as early and still comfortable.
Not everyone could do what I am doing and believe me, I am continually thankfull for the fortunate place I find myself in. The first 40 years of my life were a struggle and I know all about poverty and raising children as a single parent on a very tight budget.
I'll remember I heard it from you, but, sadly, I have to inform you that you aren't the first, or the second, or the third, etc........
We'll see how it all comes out, I still have a farily large numismatic collection and interest. I recently picked up a few CC Morgans in 65 and 66, I consider them investments also. Everything is for sale you know, it's just a matter of price. Well, except my cats, I'd likely have to pay someone to take their spoiled butts off my hands.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
On a more general note, precious metals are STILL a HORRIBLE long-term investment, and it is VERY difficult to try to short-term time the precious metals market to make any money at all, or even to break even, given all of the expenses involved (see my detailed post yesterday on the silver thread).
On a more mainstream note, the Dow is up YET AGAIN today 102.82, and the S&P is up YET AGAIN today 12.70. If you stick with a few VERY BASIC investing principles, you can become VERY WEALTHY. By that, I mean dollar-cost averaging into good growth stock mutual funds. Paid-for real estate is also a good investment. Both of these are ownership type investments that generate income. Investments like precious metals are useless in that they just sit there doing nothing and they don't create jobs or income for anybody.
I am going to keep pounding these basic ideas to everyone here because I think folks need to hear this. Personal finance is about 80% behavior. It is only about 20% head knowledge. MOST people become wealthy through these basic principles, NOT some psycho financial theories that don't work most of the time anyway.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
<< <i>I am going to keep pounding these basic ideas to everyone here >>
thanks but no thanks..... I only bought a single stock...... I don't have to work anymore... Life is good...
and I got plenty of Gold also at the $275 level.....
You like your ideas and thats good, but your no guarantee to success......
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Well Keets, I have a problem with your argument that the major guys are selling now. We all know the major guys were short Gold below $300. And they got their arses kicked when Gold began trending higher. No opinion or emotion there. Much of the rise was short covering and unwinding hedges. Hee hee! Their pain was my gain!!!
And I remember when JP Morgan Chase was short $1 billion in Gold at $325/oz, so someone (the Feds?) held the Gold at $337 to give them time to unload?
So when exactly did the major players actually get Long on Gold, so that now they can Sell at the top? I missed that news flash.......
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Dollardude, you are right and always were. Everyone needs to invest as you have determined is best for them, and we all promise we will.
In a few years Doops, your total sell out for a mere 50% is going to look awfully "safe." Gold is going to make a major run to the 1980 highs. The chances of $350 before $450 are slim imo. You made the cardinal sin to sell based on a fixed number in the sky rather than on actual market trends. What is $400 or even $410? Those are just numbers with no basis in anything. Same for $500 or $300 or even $250. A better bet would have been to cash out some of the gold now to take some profit off the table. The real BIG money has yet to be made. But it is always nice to take a profit.
roadrunner
Betting your entire savings or a major portion of it on ANY single stock is STUPID to say the least. I don't care HOW good the company is. I'll stick with sound investment principles.
<< Gee dollardude, you can keep pounding your head against the wall but the archaic "rules" for stock investing aren't going to stay working in this environment. And those rules are of course laid down by the stock brokers. Enjoy your bear market rally while it lasts. The next downturn is coming and it will be far deeper than the previous one. It's a shame that 99% of the people out there are still mesmerized by the crap they read in newsprint: dollar cost average, hold for the long term, diversify, ya da ya da ya da. PM's are here to stay for a long while, get used to it. >>
Investing in good growth stock mutual funds, dollar cost averaging, and investing in paid-for real estate is sound modern investment advice.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
More stupid for me, life is good over here....
follow your own advice.... hopefully your on your way to riches......
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
where did you make that up from?
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I believe you smart about what you say....
my deal was purchasing Intel 20 years ago as a new employee.....
I was lucky...
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
roadrunner
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
So sue me, I tend to think along his lines more than the goldbugs. Though I do have some gold and metals lying about - after all, I am a coin collector.
As far as doing well in one company's stock purchase plan, more power to ya! But had things gone sour at that company - or had things gone sour that they weren't much in control of - oopsie. And out would come the cries for the heads of that co to roll - and perhaps rightly so - read: Enron. And note the other bit of sage advice about not betting all your eggs in the company basket (as many Enronites did, unfortunately for them.) Sometimes there are Microsoft millionaires, sometimes not. Everyone's got to decide on the proper mix for them - and it might not hurt to keep the fingers crossed, what the heck.
bummer for you.
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>As far as doing well in one company's stock purchase plan, more power to ya! But had things gone sour at that company - or had things gone sour that they weren't much in control of - oopsie. And out would come the cries for the heads of that co to roll - and perhaps rightly so - read: Enron. And note the other bit >>
which is why I told him he's right, i did get lucky... didn't read that huh?
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i>No one 'round here lissens to me anyway >>
well, I'll listen now....
you got a cool icon.....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Anyways, that icon of mine is just what I happened to grab when I joined up and I've been too lazy to change it. Really a nice AU Indian Head cent would be most reflective of my interests.
Sorry to have ruffled any feathers, HepKitty, it wasn't my intention. I see nothing wrong with a person as smart as you having gotten to enjoy some good luck along the way.
Wondercoin
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
you want some?
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Wondercoin
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Having said that, if I may, please, tell me your definition of long-term or short-term. You can keep it in short mini-sylable words for me, I understand.
Now, I can look back at the last 18 months of PM investing and tell you that I am up nearly 30%. Please grace us with your vast knowledge of where any of us could have gotten a better return?
Either way, I plan on being out of PMs in 3-5 years as I think that is a realistic look at a time frame for this current bull run.
So, please help out a poor guy who has only been making 20% per annum. I am in the process of investing another 250K in PMs. It's all I have, life savings and home equity combined(minus my coin collection and previously purchased PMs).
At this point, my idea of diversified is different types of PMs, so you can see how limited my outlook is. Help!!
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff