When do you think the economy is going to recover?

ANACONDA

You can interpret the question as 'When do you think the DOW will re-hit 12500?'

(Here's an interesting link about the economy that i came across:

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20030930104109990001)

adrian

here's the web address (cut and paste if you please) - i'm not sure what to say if this doesn't work other than i give up!

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20030930104109990001

dpoole

Link doesn't work.

jbsteven

adrian

check your pm

fountainheadgold

Hi, I do not think the economy is that bad, I am an antique dearler and We are doing just as good as ever. i will admit we are working harder to do as good, but so what. the problem with this country is many people are getting lazy

ldhair

When folks get past the mind set that things are bad.

fountainheadgold

Corporate greed is what drove the stock market bubble down. Me I bought ebay in 1998, did great

coppercoins

When? Probably some time after 2008. Reason? Well, Bush won't serve a second term, he'll be outed by a democrat. Another Republican will step back into office in 2008 after the democrat screws up more things. By then let's hope our gallavant around the world turning countries into US puppets is over, and we can have some peace for a while....that's when the economy will return.

ldhair

<< <i>Bush won't serve a second term >>



Do you really think that will happen?

Peace is part of the answer

keets

When do you think the economy is going to recover?

..............as soon as we start to concern ourselves more with the problems within the U.S.A. and not the ones outside of it.

do you remember what Neil Young said when Herbert was in office?? "we've got a kinder, gentler machine-gun hand!!" with W. in office we don't even have that.

al h.

maybe guys like this, genuine forward thinkers, could help.

Bulldog

Confidence was shaken with Enron and the like. Our presence in foreign countries has got a lot of folks happy with a 2.5 % CD or passbook account.

It is going to take a long time to get back to 12.5 if ever.

I just figure, that I was born poor, and dieing poor, but paid up, wont be so bad!

Bulldog

dpoole

People might be willing to get upbeat with the growth news, but people are still having trouble finding solid full-time work. When businesses start hiring convincingly again, the economy will "recover."

So what'd the link have to say about this, Adrian?

RYK

My predictions:
Dow dips to 8800 in October, 2003.
Dow 10,000 by end of Jan, 2004.
Dow 12,500 by late 2005/early 2006.
Employment starts to improve Q1 2004.
Adrian will continue to sell gorgeous, rare coins.

puff

<< <i>When? Probably some time after 2008. Reason? Well, Bush won't serve a second term, he'll be outed by a democrat. Another Republican will step back into office in 2008 after the democrat screws up more things. By then let's hope our gallavant around the world turning countries into US puppets is over, and we can have some peace for a while....that's when the economy will return. >>


LOL, LOL, in your dreams he won't serve.... If we get a liberal Democrat in office before we get things taken care of in the middle east, Korea, etcetera, you might want to learn to speak Arabic, or Korean.

Anya Hasaeo

ANACONDA

Thanks, RYK!

My thoughts - i have no idea when things will improve but i think they shouldn't improve until the deficit comes down and we have a chance to digest the economic growth that has occurred over the past ten years.

Things run in cycles. My suspicions are that this down cycle will last about 2 years.

By the way, coins have been selling really well (notice my essential absence here on the boards for the past two months......).

adrian

coppercoins

<< <i>LOL, LOL, in your dreams he won't serve.... If we get a liberal Democrat in office before we get things taken care of in the middle east, Korea, etcetera, you might want to learn to speak Arabic, or Korean. >>


It sure as hell wouldn't be in MY dreams...I would like to see Republicans remain in office, but I doubt it will happen the way people are SO against Bush and what he's done (and for sure will do). There are a LOT of people who are borderline supporters of whomever the news says is best that will for sure go Democrat, and I highly doubt the current problems will be over by election time, which will further hurt the Republican Party and their chance at another 4 years. Just my view, I don't have to like it.

ursabear

The economy will be perceived as improving once people stop losing jobs that are lost because of worries about what Wall Street thinks.

Blackhawk

When the politicians in office on both sides of the aisle figure out that you can't spend yourselves rich. The deficit is too high now and there's no relief in sight.

BAJJERFAN

The deficit will never decrease; it will only increase at a slower rate. Wait till interest rates rise and the Guvmint has to pay more and more interest on an ever increasing debt load. They will have to raise taxes whether Rep or Dem.
People forget that the thing that made the Clintonistas look good was 2 years of windfall tax receipts from all of the IRA's that were converted to Roths. Don't forget too that this downhill slide started in Clinton's last year in office.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Congress find some way to get their mudhooks on all of the deferred taxes in 401K accounts.

LucyBop

The Semiconductor stocks, specifically Intel are rebounding rather nicely.........

RGL

It's on its way back, but there still will be many sad, unemployed, underemployed souls left in its wake ... keep on rockin' in the free world, Al! I saw Neil Young at FarmAid earlier this month in Columbus, OH ... the best damn set of the show!

Bochiman

The economy will rebound once the tech sector settles...it rose too fast too quickly and then tanked even more quickly taken a lot of REAL (not just paper) profits/money/savings with it.
People are working out of that hole, but with the way the world is digitalized, the tech sector is still important.

As for people on bush/republican's etc.....world economy (US economy) doesn't move that quickluy.
Bush is dealing with the last 5-6 years of $&!t that Clinton did to the economy....letting people walk all over the US.
Clinton didn't do good for the economy, Reagan did and Clinton took credit because of the timing. Just like nothing from this Bush term really matters that much for a few more years.
Sure, there was some short term volatility with the Iraq issue, but, i don't think that hurt the economy.

I wasn't collecting coins when the economy was going up (I was getting married, buying a house, working too hard, and paying off college and other bills) so I didn't see......were coin prices going up with the economy? The economy isn't hot right now but the prices are going up....I am wondering if it is inversely proportionate.

Ron

Bustman

My wifes company ( a major wall street firm) is still asking for new layoffs. My business ( advertising) is still in the dumps. Stocks, ehh...they will go up and down for the next year or so. The problem is really a world problem. we are facing what seems to be world war three. People are depressed. We need something good to happen, something emotional will help. Capture bin Laden or Sadam.....Korea stops its Nuclear plan....pakistan and India kiss and make up. Ben and J Lo get back together. These are some of the things that need to happen first. Then the economy will improve.

wingedliberty

As someone who has a finance degree and works for a major financial institution as a mortgage underwriter, and follows this stuff for fun, I can tell you that if there is anything I have learned in my life about economics it is this.

Despite the reality of higher unemployment.
Despite the reality of domestic jobs being exported overseas.
Despite the reality of the the challenges we face in the middle east.
Despite potential terrorism at home and abroad,

There is one thing that really drive our economy, and that is CONSUMER CONFIDENCE.
and CONSUMER CONFIDENCE is a function of how people FEEL.
any stock market index is a function of EMOTION.

Make people feel good and they will spend beyond their disposable abilities.
Its a fact.
Every single successful business or economic factor is either a necessity or makes people feel good.
Whether its Oprah or the latest weight loss craze.
If it makes people feel good , economic growth is a function of that psychology.
If we find Saddam Hussein or Bin Ladden tommorrow, then what do you think will happen to the DOW or any other index?
As a conservative republican, I'll give Bill Clinton incredible credit for making people feel good. He had the uncanny ability of mindboggling charisma. Just look at the perceived economic growth in the 90's and how the indicies did. Whether its NYSE or NASDAQ, As they said in the 90's .
"ITS THE ECONOMY STUPID", In the words of the world LEADING economic experts who you will not hear on CNN, but rather in the back door of the FED meeting having a cup of Ceylon tea with Alan Greenspan, more to the point. " ITS EMOTION STUPID!"
Just my opinion and several others who seriously study this stuff just for fun and sometimes for a living.

onlyroosies

"The Semiconductor stocks, specifically Intel are rebounding rather nicely......."

I have done real well in the semi's this year. I'm up over 100% year to date. I'm a believer of,
put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket. I stick to a half dozon stocks and watch
them close. I spend almost as much time watching and researching my stocks as I do searching
for Roosies.

Onlyroosies

AmericanSilverEagleCoins

Officially the economy is out of the slump. GDP has been improving since GWB's 4th qtr in office ever so slightly. Right now we are in a bad spell of low consumer confidence. Unfortunately the official measure of the economy's performance does not take into account unemployement or consumer confidence, just total output. I am tempted to say more about policies and politics but this is a coin forum.

I wanted to add that I too have done really well in spite of a lot of peoples gloom and doom naysaying. If you know what you are doing you can do well in any environment.

Steve355

With the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been injected into the economy, it appears to be picking up steam (despite today's lousy numbers), and seems poised for 4-5% GDP growth for the rest of CY03 and all of CY04. But the job market, a lagging indicator, will determine whether Bush is reelected.

If the nonfarm is consistently gaining 200-300K jobs monthly by next spring & summer, he'll win in a landslide (re: Nixon vs McGovern); but if the job market continues to flounder, we might see a draft Hillary movement at the convention. If, everything goes wrong throughout CY04, she has a shot to
steal the election.

The crop of Dems is a train wreck (if Lieberman could gain some momentum it would give the Dems some credibility) ; how many of these clowns have proposed rolling back the tax cuts / fiscal stimulus
in one form or another (wouldn't the markets just love that !!). They're desperate for bad news on the economy and Iraq fronts to have any real chance against George W (not factoring in Hillary).

Steve

roadrunner

We still have a very deep stock market correction to go through.
Equities as a GROUP will be down for another 5-10 years with bear market rallies scattered throughout it. 12500 DOW is a long ways off.

RR

wingedliberty

Economic prediction is best left to the psychics, uuhh, oh ,I mean economists., lol.
Nothing is certain, except maybe after reading this thread, that numismatists are slightly more intelligent than the general population. (at the risk of sounding arrogant).

puff

<< <i>As someone who has a finance degree and works for a major financial institution as a mortgage underwriter, and follows this stuff for fun, I can tell you that if there is anything I have learned in my life about economics it is this.

Damn Brian, now you're over hear nailing it on the head!!! Do you need an agent!!!

LucyBop

<< <i>that numismatists are slightly more intelligent than the general population >>


The HepKitty has traveled alot of circles and I have made many friends in different fields all over the Country..

I do believe that the coin collector tends to be a sharper person....

DCAMFranklin

<< <i>"The Semiconductor stocks, specifically Intel are rebounding rather nicely......."

I have done real well in the semi's this year. I'm up over 100% year to date. I'm a believer of,
put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket. I stick to a half dozon stocks and watch
them close. I spend almost as much time watching and researching my stocks as I do searching
for Roosies.

Onlyroosies >>



INTC, Intel, may be up from it's low this year, however, it is only $7.52 higher than it was FIVE(5) YEARS ago. The buyers in excess of $75, back in 2000, are probably not too excited about their "rebounding" to $27.52.

INTC Chart

LucyBop

some of us bought shares for 11 dollars in the mid eighties and still hold those after many many splits......

LucyBop

I also encouraged a buddy to buy Intel when it sunk to 13 dollars earlier this year............ he put 25k into it........


boy, did he do well...

Mrpawn

It will be reported soon that the economy showed improvement as of August 2003

Blackhawk

Despite all that I've read on this thread, I will continue to contend that until debt is under control...personal, municipality, state, and federal, any upturn will be short term. When the government gives people money and then touts how consumer spending is up, it's asinine.

michael

i think the economy still has a ways to go down before it hits bottom and the bottom

might? be during the end of the first quarter 2004 beginning of the second quarter 2004

after that i cant say it could get better? or worse? would not surprise me either way


i do think inflation will skyrocket within the next three years or so

michael

Legend

No one can say when and if the economy will ever recover. It seems like financially we're playing with a new set of rules. One thing I strongly believe, that for the next year or so, the Republicans will do their best to get W. a second term. And that means tinkering with the ecomomy for the short term to make it look ok (after that if he gets elected, things might slip some).


I had just written a new HOT TOPICS article concerning something similar-the growth of millionares and the potential for our coin market (http://www.legendcoin.com/hot.html).

DHeath

Furniture, tobacco, and textiles used to anchor my local economy. The furniture manufacturers have moved production to China, tobacco is no longer PC, and textile manufacturers have moved production to regions of the world where labor is cheaper.

At the national level, our last great "product" was the PC. Hardware is now being manufactured in SE Asia, and software development is no longer 100% domestic. I'd say we have to figure out exactly what it is we intend to produce here and sell the rest of the world that will allow us to sustain our competitive advantage and higher standard of living. There's no logic in trying to sell cheaply manufactured goods to unemployed/under-employed U.S. workers. I wonder what we'll export. Medical technology? Military hardware? Movies? Those are all areas in which we enjoy a huge advantage, but will those industries employ your out of work neighbor?

As a nation, we've always been pretty innovative. I think we're waiting for the next big product. It feels like 1978 to me. JMO

originalisbest

Nanotechnology, of course!

"...IF the economy will EVER recover..." - it's amazing; I guess we're in the midst of another great depression and I've somehow failed to realize it? Naah, more likely it's the protracted hangover after a hell of a bubble we had there.

Wolf359

It's comforting to share a hobby with so many smart people here. I've read some really fascinating comments and insights in the thread.

The tech sector is under tremendous pressure from the H1-B VISA program. Basically tens of thousands of foreign workers, designated as TEMPORARY have been brought to the United States to plus holes in technology and other industries. This worked well in the 90's when there was a shortgage. Companies pay them VERY LOW WAGES (almost slave labor)... Today it has become a full-fledged immigration route, as these "TEMPORARY" workers stay and become US citizens. My objection is that the H1-B program was never supposed to be an immigration route and is in fact, displacing US Citizens keeping them unemployed while employing foreign workers from India, etc. Right now there are at least 500,000 workers still here on visa's. How would this cut the unemployement rate??? Congress is supposed to address the issue in the fall...until it's addressed/capped AND the next big tech thing happens this sector will not recover.

Random thoughts: The economy is showing growth, jobs will follow at some point. Forget the deficit. Decifits are caused by recessions and wars we have both so now it's a temporary BIGGER deficit. Government revenues fell over 200 billion during the recesion...it's not all spending. If money talks, Dean will win the nomination for the Democratic Party. Dean is electable, but will be a disaster for Iraq, anti-terrorism policies and will ride the Bush fixed economy into the ground while doing nothing. He is Clinton re-incarnated except he lacks the charm. I hope I'm wrong...

The DOW will not reach 12,500 and sustain it for many years.

Blackhawk

"Bush fixed economy"

matteproof

No one has any idea what will happen in the Stock market. However, without JOBS - and lots of them - the average American will suffer. The sickening mantra of the so-called "jobless recovery" is an affront to the American worker and the intelligence of every rational person. Corporate growth built on the layoff of workforces is a travesty.

It is scandalous that the corporate chieftain and his cronies continue to reap rich compensation for themselves, while having no remorse whatsoever when it comes to laying off huge waves of employees (other than themselves). The CEO will always have his/her trust fund and golden parachute; while the common laid off worker forgoes health care insurance because he simply can't afford it.

While the corporate aristocracy sends YOUR job overseas for ten cents on the dollar, he would not dare send HIS job overseas at any price. Yet, these "leaders" of commerce continue to rule in high places, never blinking from the bright pink color of the slips they have issued to everyone but themselves.

The typical laid off working man could potentially face ruinous consequences from the current corporate trend. For example, health care costs have the potential to utterly undo the laid off working man. The cost of health insurance is VERY high. A typical family will pay 1k per month or more for such insurance. How can an unemployed man pay for this along with food and shelter for his family? He can't! Already, many unemployed Americans find themselves without health insurance: a fantastic economic DISASTER waiting to happen!

Without health care insurance a family could be wiped out from even one extended stay at the hospital. As I see it, large corporations who lay off workers should be REQUIRED to continue paying for the laid off employee's health insurance UNTIL that person has found other employment. Finding a job for many has proven to be painfully LONG waiting. A man over 40 years of age will have a tremendously difficult time finding employment. Is that the new American way? GOD FORBID!

If America is to succeed going forward, then the corporate shills must not be allowed to undo the very fabric of the American family with their mass layoffs of everyone but themselves. Legislation should be immediatley drafted, such that prior to firing ONE single worker as a result of "downsizing," the CEO and other so-called "upper management" must FIRST have their compensation drastically cut. Anything short of this is corporate TYRANNY.

If the current trend continues, our nation and economy are bound to suffer tremendously. The gap between rich and poor is widening greater all the time. The new American aristocracy is not a king or a queen in a castle, but rather the CEO along with his sycophantic puppets living in their 30,000 sq. ft. mansions. These are the same "management class" who layoff thousands while simultaneously voting mind numbing compensation packages for "his royal highness" (the CEO) from the boardroom. This trend towards filthy lucre must be brought under control. Otherwise, I fear that the economy will mirror a new society: one in which the RICH lord it over the poor without mercy. matteproof

wallstreetman

Gold is telling you where the economy is headed, its going to get worse before it gets better. Corporate GREED is sending jobs overseas at a record pace! Were starting to look like the very Govt we ran away from, instead of an US, US society, were turning into a ME, ME dictatorship(Kings and Queens trying to do each other in)! Remember, UNITED WE STAND!

Bear

When all of the good jobs are gone, who will be left to buy the products?

jeffnpcb

Can you say "OUTSOURCING!" We are becoming a service industry nation with the help of GATT, NAFTA, WTO, and the EU!!! Who forced this up our "CHUTES?" Until we become an industrial nation again, all we will do is sell products that were imported! Crap, I can't even buy a pair of American made Levis'. Go figure!

ohbaby

the problem with this country is many people are getting lazy
Interesting ! Only one person to point that out.

It appears to me Americans today want it all and right now. We are so consumption oriented it is astounding. Forget about saving for things and working hard. People thiink they work hard and therefore they deserve [fill in]. Who is to blame? Media? Attitudes? Advertising? None. We are the ones to balme. No one puts a gun to our heads to over consume.

I also find it interesting that so many posters point the finger at external factors or the politicians. This is nonsense. Jobs being lost to other nations is an indication we are overpaid and no longer competitive. This has been gone on for decades, first automotives, then manufacturing and now even some service jobs. I was just in Nagoya Japan and saw literally hundreds sleeping on cardboard boxes in city parks. They are the homeless. Their manufacturing jobs have been lost to Korea, China and Indonesia. As one's economic standard increases it is more difficult to sustain it especially if the base can be exported offshore.

Blaming politicians is not an answer. Who elects these people? Politicians tell the people what they want to hear and their only objective is to look good and get reelected. Politicians cannot stop world economic events. What we should do is hold politicians accountable for is less government waste and pork barrel projects they vote for to get reelected.

I am a big fan of history and we revisit it century after century. Economic history is particularly repetitive. Suppose we go back just 100 years. Europe was a economic powerhouse [esp. England, Germany, France], the US was coming along, Middle East was not a factor and Japan was a maker of cheap products. As WW2 approached and played out things changed, the US became a powerhouse given the manufacturing build up for the war. Germany was bombed out of being a powerhouse as was much of Europe and Japan. Through the post war period, Germany and Japan rose from the ashes and took dominate roles in production as we cut back more and more. The 70s oil shock made the oil producers a formidible force, oil was needed to fuel the manufacturing powerhouses. The Arabs with their new riches were buying up everything from real estate to farmland in the midwest. Fast forward to today, Japan has been in a funk since 1987, real estate prices there are at 1975 levels. France? Haha! Germany? High unemployment and high prices. Same for Britain.

The picture for the US is not a pretty one. I have been saying for over 3 years now there has to be an accounting. You can not have billions lost in the stock market. Billions lost by institutions in the Enron, Worldcom, etc. Billions lost in wages. Billions spent on terrorism. Billlions spent to do "nation building". And expect a robust economy. First we will have higher taxes [I am sure the politicians will be blamed but the groundwork was set years ago]. We will also have much higher interest rates. High unemployment, figure 7-8.5% and even higher underemployment. This will last for many years as we unwind past mistakes and pay for current ones.

The irony in all of this is some people are quietly making alot of money right here in the US. People with connections to government, federal/state/local, and with business savy. Sadly, I don't see a recovery to the days of the late 1980s-1990s for a long time to come. We need to go through some serious pain. One place to start will be a 40-60% drop in the NASDAQ and a similar drop in real estate prices, especially in high priced markets. Only then can we begin to recover. The sooner it happens the better off we will all be. For the older boomers we will look back as this period being our best years.

BTW, what does this have to do with coins?!!

relayer

It will be a week from Thursday.

One major impediment is the diversion of capital into pension funds. Corporate pension funds have been hammered by the decline in stock prices over the last year and the balances in those pension funds are well below the levels they need to maintain.

So even though sales of hard goods are rebounding any profit from those sales cannot be invested into new jobs or to finance a company’s expansion. Instead it must be diverted to pensioners (both present and future) that provide zero return back to the corporation.

DCAMFranklin

<< <i>'When do you think the DOW will re-hit 12500?' >>



It will take 3 to 3 1/2 years. In the meantime, we may see some very rocky times in the stock market. Yet, that doesn't preclude certain companies, in certain industry groups, from doing quite well. Even in bear markets, there are stocks that do quite well.

Catch22

I'm neither pessimistic nor optimistic about the near term. Slow growth continues, but is growth never-the-less. The economy has in my opinion, been rather resilient.

Although Governement spending has increased, it has been flowing out of our country rather than into our own economy and that looks to be the trend in the near term. In my view, the pinch is coming from State and local Governments trying to make up for lost revenue. That is another trend that I don't see reversing in the near term.

All in all, I see nothing to get excited about just yet so I'll guess slow to moderate economic growth for the next 2 years. As for employment, that is always a lagging indicator and I suspect it will continue to hoover around 6%.

Strictly from a demographics perspective, the aging population suggests more disposable income to spend and keep the economy relatively healthy, with certain areas doing very well. If someone were to ask themselves what area of the economy stands to benefit from an aging population, they just might be able to stay a few ticks ahead of the pack.

razorface1027

I don't want the Dow to go up at this time. We, the Mrs. and I, need Pres. BUSHWACKER to keep sending exorbitant monies to rebuild third world countries; of course after we destroy them, so we can re-mortgage our newly purchased home that we luckily locked in at 5.75 back in December to achieve a lower rate such as it was back in Janurary thru june to mid July at4.75 to 5.00 or 25. They plumitted, but we were not within the 6 month time window to re-mortgage. As long as the prime intrest rate goes lower, as the above mentioned keep feeding funds, the mortgage rate should drop again inevitably and then they(the DOW) and those that invest, can hope for HIGHER futures...

pmh1nic

I start a similiar thread in the open forum (where it belongs) with a link to this article:

http://207.238.152.36/publications/newsreleases/globaleconprospects2.htm

I think Ohbaby has touched on something that needs to be clarified. When we talk about recovery we need to differentiate between a temporary recovery with repect to having positive growth in the economy in general, fuller employment, growth in personal income, etc., which might last a year, two years, five years versus laying the foundation for continued growth that will last for generations.

Government can affect changes that might stimulate growth in the economy over the short term but the things Ohbaby mentioned are the things that set the stage for economic stability and growth that span generations.

I also don't think you can get very far away from the fundamentals of debt is bad, saving is good and spending less than you earn is a virtue. I know this is simplistic and I realize that running a modest deficient (especially if it's borrowing to build infrastructure for the future) can be a positive thing. But when you consider the total debit (federal, state, local, corporate and personal) and the borrowing we've done against the productivity and wealth of future generations I'm very concerned about the prospects for our long term economic growth.