CU VALUES GROSSLY OVERSTATED / BEWARE COIN MARKET HYPE ?

deltadon

Due to the widely hyped "white hot" market in the coin press, I recently consigned eight PCGS Certified 20th Century type coins to the Bowers & Merena Baltimore ANA Auction in July. This group of eight coins had a total current Collectors' Universe (CU) value of $14,165. Five of the coins graded PCGS MS-66 with the remainder PCGS MS-65. This lot of eight coins realized only $10,621 WITH Buyer's Premium or 25.0% below CU Value. Only one coin sold at a price which was less than 20% (18.1%) below the CU Value (1916 WL Half PCGS MS-66). The worst price vs. CU Value was for a 1917-Ty. 1 SLQ PCGS MS-65FH which realized a price of only $920 or 37% below CU Value of $1,450. I might understand a few coins coming in below "market" but not the entire group and at a significant discount to market! I even purchased one of the coins myself, a 1900 Barber Quarter in PCGS MS-65 (white) because the highest bid at the time was $575 or $875 below CU Value - this for a coin which has a population of 18 with only 7 higher! Absolutely none of these coins had any problems whatsoever and all silver coins were bright white or with very light toning.

My warning to everyone is to be careful of the hype and put reserves on your coins if you consign them to auction. Otherwise you could be very disappointed - like myself. I would be interested to learn if other collectors have similar experiences with auctioning their coins or where have you been successful in getting good value for your coins - EBay?

wondercoin

There is certainly no "hard and fast rule" that the 20th century coins are roughly 25% overstated in the guide. And, certainly, if you go to Heritage's prices realized, you will see that a particular coin (the same coin) can vary greatly in price realized from auction to auction. Indeed, many coins are extremely conservatively set out in the guide. For example, the 1970(d) Kennedy half dollar in MS67 is listed in the guide at $500 and sold Friday in the Heritage sale at $2300 (and if I personally had wanted the coin for my current #2 set, I can assure you the coin may have sold even higher).

Wondercoin

relayer

Everybody loves a bargain.

CU intentionally inflates the price guide so that their dealer network can discount coins from list and let their customers think they are getting a deal.

The dealer network is still a brick and mortar set-up, with high overhead. If PCGS were to publish a price guide showing what the coins actually trade for, their dealer network couldn't match it and stay in business.

It's much easier to sell a $200 coin for $300 when the list price says it's $500

MoneyLA

About a year or two ago I questioned the CU price guides when, at the time, proof Washingtons were selling on ebay for MORE than the CU prices. I was told that CU was NOT using auction results for its price guides because auction prices were NOT reliable and not representative of the true market.

For example, in an auction two buyers determined to get a particular coin could overbid for it and drive it up to abnormal levels. And, when there is a lack of bidders, a coin could sell for way less than it's worth.

Frankly I would like to see auction results "mixed in" or factored into an overall pricing structure.

I'm curious if the CU methodology for its pricing has changed? And what is the pricing structure methodology now? For example, are certain dealers surveyed, and how many? If price guides are used, who are the dealers?

cheers, alan mendelson

deltadon

ACCORDING TO THE CUPRICE GUIDE INFO AUCTION PRICES ARE INCLUDED

redcents

HRH said point blank in Baltimore at the registry luncheon that the price guide "needs a lot of work" and admitted they just don't have the spare time & manpower to really do it justice right now - but will try in the "near" future. He said it (the fact that it needs a lot of work) in such a way that you were able to infer that you SHOULD NOT rely on it as an absolute gauge of values to be used to determine what you should pay OR expect to get. Auction records ARE the best source of what to expect, followed by dealer offerings and by simply talking to people interested & knowledgeable about what you're interested in. The same can be said for the coin world trends as there is just one person responsible FOR ALL that price data.

What irks me the most is the unscrupulous dealers that spout those price guides prices so they can sell drastically overgraded non-pcgs slabs at what appears to be "huge" discounts to the newer & more unsuspecting collectors.

deltadon

BELIEVE ME, I LEARNED MY LESSON!

Typetone

You have to do your homework on pricing. Look at Teletrade and Heritage auction results. Look at pop changes since those auctions. Do not rely on price guides. They are both quick and wrong. That applies to the blue sheet/grey sheet as well.

Greg

tradedollarnut

My experience is that the main problem is not that all price guides are all over the place [yes, it's true] but rather that most new collectors seek out the bargain coins when they first get into the hobby. When it comes time to sell, these "bargains" are revealed for what they truly are.

Overall, I think you did pretty well.

Clankeye

<< <i>Overall, I think you did pretty well. >>



I do too. I was prepared to hear a much uglier story.

Clankeye

Mark

If HRH said that one should not rely on the CU Pricing guide for either selling or buying a coin, then why do they have the pricing guide on their web site? I think Redcents has a point that the sleezy among sellers will point to the CU price guide as justification for extraordinary high prices when it's to their advantage. If the prices are not realistic, then I wish CU would remove the enitre effort until it can be up-dated and corrected.

Mark

Russ

deltadon,

Are we to assume from your post that when you purchased the coins you paid what the CU price guide lists as values? Without checking any real and reliable sources of pricing information?

Russ, NCNE

redcents

I forgot to ask. Were you disappointed with the size of the profit or the size of the loss?

MadMonk

I too think you did well.