What would you do?

ColonialCoinUnion · September 20, 2003 1:20AM

I have been offered an exceedingly rare coin by a reputable dealer. It is a piece I want. It is priced at a level which is just on the fringes of what I would pay, but it is doable.

I have never seen an example of this coin before, and can trace auction records of only about 10 different pieces for the last 150 years. This coin is, apparently, not a match for any of those previously offered pieces.

It is such a rare and obscure item that there are real questions about its authenticity, and, in fact, there are real questions about whether anyone could definitively determine if it is genuine or not.

I can work with the dealer to obtain whatever assurance from whatever reputable source that the piece is genuine, but I suspect the conclusions might be something along the lines of that 1959 Wheat sent Goldberg offered a while ago - that is to say it probably won't be a 100% decisive conclusion.

Or I can walk away, concluding that this coin is beyond my current (and perhaps future) numismatic experience and expertise level and either not include this particular type of coin in my collection, or wait for one that is plated in an old catalog that at least has been determined to be genuine in the past (for whatever thats worth).

So, what would you do?

Placid · September 20, 2003 1:31AM

Buy it with the option to return within reasonable period then send it to ngc or pcgs and if they certify it then at least you have their backing.

If its not a coin that either of those certify then I would skip on it.

jeffnpcb · September 20, 2003 1:39AM

CCU, may we know which coin it is?? A rarity of that description deserves a look!!!
If you feel it won't disappear in the near future, try more research. It would require some one who specializes in the field to find the true value of the questionable piece!
Good luck!

jacktheknife · September 20, 2003 1:40AM

I agree. I would try to work out a deal for return if it fails verification.

291fifth · September 20, 2003 1:44AM

Walk away. If the dealer wants big money for the coin let him do the authentication work/expense. It may turn out to be an expensive problem for you otherwise.

billboat · September 20, 2003 1:45AM

<< 
I can work with the dealer to obtain whatever assurance from whatever reputable source that the piece is genuine, but I suspect the conclusions might be something along the lines of that 1959 Wheat sent Goldberg offered a while ago - that is to say it probably won't be a 100% decisive conclusion.

>>

I assume opinions from PCGS, NGC and ANACS are included in this statement. Sounds like you'll never be 100% certain given the facts as you've presented them and I'm not sure what could ever provide 100% certaintyl And I must admit that I'm very curious--I guess it's an obscure colonial piece--like an NE six pence or something.

mgoodm3 · September 20, 2003 2:04AM

If you can be reasonably assured it's real and you would regret it if you didn't buy it. I would say go for it. One may not come up again if it's as rare as you say.

byergo · September 20, 2003 2:12AM

I would absolutely stay away from this coin unless it's certified by one of the big boys. Why risk it, when it's soo cheap to get it slabbed?

ColonialCoinUnion · September 20, 2003 2:34AM

What exactly was the conclusion on that 1959 Wheat cent? If memory serves it was sold 'as is' unslabbed. Is that correct?

In my case, obviously I have been intentionally vague on the coin type for a reason. I'll reveal it with a pic in due time. I can say however that the coin has been determined to be genuine by the 'big boys'.

kranky · September 20, 2003 3:02AM

Authenticity is often no more than an opinion, not a provable fact. If the "big boys" declare it genuine (does anyone today write up letters of authenticity like Breen used to?) and that is enough to satisfy future buyers, it might be worth buying. My concern would be paying the same price as the existing examples which apparently have market acceptance as genuine. I would hate to pay the same price and find out later the authenticity of my example still is in question.

On the subject of the 1959-D wheat cent, the Secret Service could not prove it to be a fake so they declared it genuine. PCGS would not slab it. Fred Weinberg and David Lange would not offer opinions. Sol Taylor felt it to be genuine.

ColonialCoinUnion · September 20, 2003 3:12AM

Great response Kranky.

I think you've hit the nail on the head with respect to some future cloud of doubt despite several 'official' and nonofficial opinions that its legit. I suspect at least some potential future buyers will feel just as I do right now.

As for value vs other 'market accepted' pieces - its impossible to compare to any recent activity because there hasn't been any.

Placid · September 20, 2003 1:16PM

TTT

JohnZ · September 20, 2003 1:48PM

What's the coin???? The entire decision-making process depends on it. Otherwise we're all just shooting the breeze.

ColonialCoinUnion · September 20, 2003 1:54PM

<< What's the coin???? The entire decision-making process depends on it. Otherwise we're all just shooting the breeze. >>

I'm not pepared to reveal the coin at this point, but I disagree that the entire decision making process depends on it.

Suffice it to say that its a very rare, obscure colonial that is hard to authenticate and hard to attribute.

JohnZ · September 20, 2003 2:08PM

Suffice it to say that its a very rare, obscure colonial that is hard to authenticate and hard to attribute.

Sorry. I understand your need for discretion, but that does not suffice. It's simply not enough information to solicit any responses that will do you any good. Is it Hogge money, or a NE sixpence, or an Elephant token, or a Chain cent? I know you can't answer, but the fact is that determining authenticity on colonials is a very specific enterprise. It's a case of extreme apples and oranges.

razorface1027 · September 20, 2003 2:18PM

If it is what the dealer says it is, why isn't he/she submitting it for grading? I'd be leary

northcoin · September 20, 2003 2:47PM

I share your concern every time an ancient coin is offered for big bucks. Who is to say that fakes were not made several centuries ago? Since PCGS and NGC were not around circa 300 B.C. who knows for sure as to authenticity?

JohnZ · September 20, 2003 2:50PM

You've said a mouthful northcoin. It's why I've never spent more than $100 on an ancient. VERY easy to counterfeit hammered coins.

PTVETTER · September 20, 2003 6:01PM

You can't wait if it's as rare as you say. some coins only come to the market once every ten or twenty years. If this is the case go for it!

sinin1 · September 21, 2003 12:39AM

If the big boys say it is authentic - then make sure they back it up and it is in a slab

If/once in a slab and the price seems 'reasonable' (don't know if that means 2K - 100K) then buy it

You (or your estate) can always run it through one of the big auction houses that sell at the big shows -

I would not worry if some may feel it is not authentic, they will not bid (very high) - as long as 2 bidders like it and want it, the price should be good

You have not said the value of this coin versus total value of your collection - personally, I would not want more than 10% of my collection value in this coin unless I really loved it (and you do not because you have asked our opinions)

MrEureka · September 21, 2003 1:12AM

CCU - If you bought the coin, and if another one that was unquestionably authentic became available in a couple of years, would you want to replace the first coin? If so, I'd say you should wait for another opportunity.

ColonialCoinUnion · September 21, 2003 11:22AM

<< CCU - If you bought the coin, and if another one that was unquestionably authentic became available in a couple of years, would you want to replace the first coin? If so, I'd say you should wait for another opportunity. >>

Andy -

Good angle. I've actually thought about this exact scenario and wondered what I would do.

There are pieces not quite as nice that are plated in old catalogs and I guess the answer is I'd probably rather own one of those - but I also think that the same doubts (or at least concerns) may exist about those coins.

Just because a coin has been plated in a big-time catalog doesn't mean it is genuine - right? The gold St. Pats in the Norweb collection comes to mind.

This whole scenario reminds me of the case of the Maryland Denarium offered by Bowers in their February 1978 auction. That coin was a newly discovered specimen of an extremely rare and obscure item and real questions of its authenticity apparently existed. As a means of asserting the coins authenticity, Bower's included in the catalog a letter from John Ford which stated that he believed the Bower's coin was genuine based on comparison to the one in his own collection. On the other hand, I guess its not impossible that both coins were actually fakes.

My conclusion on this topic is that the best I could hope for is a PCGS slab (because their opinion carries with it a financial garantee) AND a letter of opinion from a colonial expert like Michael Hodder of Stack's (becuase his opinion carries with it the credibility of the colonial community) saying they believe its the real McCoy.

Finis.

Bugs · September 21, 2003 3:10PM

TTT...man this has me curious!

abuell · September 21, 2003 3:18PM

<< Suffice it to say that its a very rare, obscure colonial that is hard to authenticate and hard to attribute. >>

Well, this does give me enough info to form an answer for you. If Tony Terranova and Mike Hodder say that it is genuine then the market will accept it as genuine. On the other hand, is they say that it is not genuine... well, you know what that means.

JohnZ · September 21, 2003 3:20PM

Good point abuell. It's objective authenticity is non sequiter as long as the market accepts it as genuine.

cladking · September 21, 2003 3:34PM

Interesting dilemna. Fantasies, restrikes, and counterfeits are interesting to collect but
one can't afford to pay full price for them.

I don't think I'd enjoy owning a coin that I wasn't sure of its authenticity. I'd have to pass
if it couldn't be shown to be real with a fairly high degree of confidence.

Bugs · September 22, 2003 8:50AM

CCU...

In my case, obviously I have been intentionally vague on the coin type for a reason. I'll reveal it with a pic in due time.

When is "due time"?

Conder101 · September 23, 2003 2:24AM

<< My conclusion on this topic is that the best I could hope for is a PCGS slab (because their opinion carries with it a financial garantee) >>

But unless incontrovertable proof comes forth that it is fake, all PCGS has to do is maintain their position that the piece is genuine and they have no financial obligation.

airplanenut · September 23, 2003 2:31AM

Can you compare it to an item you've seen in a catalog that may be in private hands? Maybe you could have done what was done with the 1913 Liberty nickels... find known genuine pieces, and have some experts examine the two.

Jeremy

What would you do?

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