How long will it take for the Modern Market to "Saturate"?
my3cents
Posts: 1,411
I have been watching the modern market receive more
and more coins in PR69, PR68DCAM, and MS68DCAM for over 2 years.
POP's drop and drop and yet the prices have appeared
to appreciate. How long do YOU think this will last?
and more coins in PR69, PR68DCAM, and MS68DCAM for over 2 years.
POP's drop and drop and yet the prices have appeared
to appreciate. How long do YOU think this will last?
0
Comments
Do you see a trend?
Also, there are no modern DMPL's designated by PCGS. Unless you're a hard-core classic collector and including Morgans in moderns.
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is growing more slowly than the supply. The demand for the high grade
coins is still pretty small and the growth in supply of some of these will
eventually hit a wall. There is a finite supply of these coins and in some
cases that supply is quite small. More importantly much of the supply is
in mint and proof sets which are rapidly drying up. Growth in supply will
slow to a trickle when these sets have all been spoken for and begin to
gain some premium to the coins in them.
If growth in demand were to quickly fall off at this point, the current demand
is probably sufficient to maintain the prices on the rarities and the more com-
mon moderns would plummet in price. It should be remembered that moderns
still sell for fractions of the prices of classics of equal rarity because of the much
lower demand. Moderns were probably never less appreciated than they were
a few years back so the trend is on their side.
About 90% of the threads here about "moderns" don't define what they are referring to, and there are HUGE differences among the various segments of the "modern" market.
* Or to have a shot at it, anyway... 3:1 odds it will degenerate into a bashing thread anyway.
Modern - 1950+
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There are enough 2003 Kennedys in PR69DCAM for anybody who wants one to have one.
On the other hand, last I knew there is only ONE 1950 Franklin proof in PR66DCAM (that's 66, not 69) with NONE higher.
And, there's a "slight" price difference between the two. "Slight" by Bill Gates' standards.
So... you can see the problem with lumping them together to discuss.
To me, that was a cut off point. Once the mint began using worthless metal as opposed to silver, it signified a new era.
I know there are those who will talk of special mint coins after 64 that are of both silver and gold, but still, for me modern is 65 and newer.
Each to his own, I guess.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
It is impossible to generalize.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
it seems clear that prices---read as demand---for top quality post 1950 coins continue to rise. i feel confident that it will take some time for your saturation to occur. to the dismay of many, probably no sooner than 2005. i know it may be a rehashed debate/arguement/discussion, but collectors who see this as a bad thing need to get over it and understand that the long term effect on the hobby as a whole is positive. it might take time for the collector dollars to trickle into other segments of the market, but it'll happen. we all benifit with increased hobby interest and dollars spent.
al h.
Keets - I agree 100% - the more money that enters the collector market, the better for everyone.
On another note - the numbers of state quarters in holders is off the chart and yet they still command somewhat of a premium (more than $.25). IMO, it seems that there would have to be a point at which the sheer numbers would devalue this series of coins.
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<< <i>I've always considered modern to be 1965 and after.
To me, that was a cut off point. Once the mint began using worthless metal as opposed to silver, it signified a new era.
I know there are those who will talk of special mint coins after 64 that are of both silver and gold, but still, for me modern is 65 and newer.
Each to his own, I guess. >>
Well said,I could'nt agree more.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
But in any case, I don't think the market will ever saturate. I suspect it will evolve and move into other areas. Same as all the other sections of coindom.
the obsolete eagle reverse quarters. Sure, most aren't interested in paying
significant premiums to obtain these coins in unc or far larger premiums to get
them in gem or superb gem, but out of all these people there has so far been
adequate demand to overwhelm the supply of a few dozen or couple hundred
coins which constitute the supply. The ranks of such collectors are continuing to
swell. In 1964 there were more than ten million people collecting modern coins
from pocket change and many were eager to obtain the keys where they could
for nominal premiums. A 1950-D nickel which existed in numbers over a million
and a half was pushed up to more than $100 in todays money. A similar "rarity"
today sells for $1 or less. A modern today that sells for $125 probably has a pop
of around eighty pieces!
Are we on our way back to one American in twenty collecting modern coins? (this
would be fifteen million collectors today). No. We probably aren't. There are a lot
of differences between the America of 1964 and the America of 2003. There are a
lot more activities to keep kids interested and there is a great deal more wealth a-
vailable to children. Numismatics has become a much more exclusive past time and
it's more difficult for people to find access to raw circulating coins since banks dislike
this activity.
The future is always impossible to know, but it's a safe bet that coins with populations
of one hundred, one thousand or even ten thousand are likely to maintain some pre-
mium in an enviroment where there are tens of millions of collectors of states quarters
from circulation. This should be especially true when the fact that these are new col-
lectors who are still learning the ends and outs of finding these coins is taken into con-
sideration. As these folks learn what to expect, and how to find and store the coins
it is likely that the interests of many in the hobby will expand. The typical states collect-
or would have thought nothing of finding an AU 1968 quarter a few years ago, but today
would note it as most unusual. He'll wonder how such a coin could stay in such a pristine
condition for so many years. He'll wonder just how many are still available in circulation,
and he'll wonder if such a coin might still exist new. Will such a person enter the ranks of
"real" collectors? Really this is a poor question. A better question would be; Did he enter
the ranks of real collectors when he noticed the unusual coin or when he gained the know-
ledge to tell that the coin was unusual. Of course in many cases it will have been even soon-
er since people are real collectors when they start having questions, as soon as they note
that not all coins are the same.
Coins have been made out of "worthless" metal since the beginning of coinage. It has
never been reasonable to expect small purchases to require silver or gold. People tend-
er "worthless" paper to acquire items of significant value and recieve their small change
in metal that is worth far more than the paper they started with. Money has value only
because people believe it has value. The same certainly applies equally to the classic coins
and the moderns. If people didn't believe that rare coins were valuable then the 1856 FE
cent, the '50-D nickel, and the high grade '99 DE quarter would all have very little value.
And if rare coins had to be made of valuable metals than one could buy twenty five of the
FE cents with the DE quarter.
Moderns are gaining in price solely because for the first time people are paying attention
to them. They are getting higher prices than most seasoned collectors expect because
they are much scarcer than most peoples' perceptions. The moderns will continue this be-
havior until the demand for them stops growing. But it should be remembered that while
the number of collectors can quit growing the aggregate demand can continue to increase
from the existing collectors. It should be remembered that there are still very few people
who are actually paying premiums for modern coins and that there is a huge pool of people
who are already collecting them and might start paying premiums. It should be rememb-
ered that these coins are available in circulation and that these coins represent a couple
hundred billion little advertisement to entice new collectors. It should be remembered that
many millions of dollars are being spent to recruit a new generation of collectors and lets not
forget that time truly does fly.
<< <i>I'm still trying to make a PR69DCAM Kennedy or Lincoln! >>
Why don't you try polishing both the dies and the planchet before you strike them?
<< <i>To me, that was a cut off point. Once the mint began using worthless metal as opposed to silver, it signified a new era. >>
You mean worthless nickel that was used to make Buffalos and Liberty nickels? Just curious...
jom