I prefer some of the non - "Short Set" date Walkers - a brief, non-scientific analysis
coinguy1
Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
The "Short Set" of Walking Liberty Half Dollars, comprised of the 20 issues produced from 1941-1947, is one the most popular sets in all of numismatics. And, why shouldn't it be? The coins are beautiful, there are no real "stoppers" to preclude someone from completing a set and the set is affordable, at least compared to many others.
Currently, CCDN (Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter) bid for the set in MS65 condition is $4534 and, in MS66 grade, it totals $13,300. An MS67 set would present some serious problems, as five of the 20 issues currently have PCGS MS67 populations of fewer than 5 pieces. Never mind that the cost would be well in excess of $60,000, even if the coins could be located.
BUT.....due, in large part, to the attention and popularity of the short set dates, I believe that there are some excellent relative values among the somewhat ignored, non - "Short Set", earlier issues.
For purposes of this brief, completely non - scientific, unprofessional study, I am merely looking at the two lowest priced, pre 1941 issues, the 1939 and 1940 and comparing their PCGS populations and prices to a few of the least expensive "Short Set" issues, the 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1946-D:
Non - "Short Set" dates
1939 MS65 population of 1311 and CCDN bid of $95
1939 MS66 population of 733 and CCDN bid of $177
1940 MS65 population of 1388 and CCDN bid of $80
1940 MS66 population of 614 and CCDN bid of $140
"Short Set" Dates
1941 MS65 population of 3651 and CCDN bid of $98
1941 MS66 population of 1741 and CCDN bid of $160
1942 MS65 population of 4455 and CCDN bid of $98
1942 MS66 population of 1459 and CCDN bid of 180
1943 MS65 population of 5143 and CCDN bid of $82
1943 MS66 population of 1699 and CCDN bid of $187
1946-D MS65 population of 6630 and CCDN bid of 75
1946-D MS66 population of 824 and CCDN bid of $180
A few brief conclusions from the above populations and prices:
Look at the MS65 1939 compared to the MS65 1941 - the 1939 is 2.78 times scarcer, yet sells for slightly less! Compare the MS65 1939 to the MS65 1942 and it's even more dramatic. The MS66 1940 is 2.76 times scarcer than the MS66 1943, but lists for just 74% of the price! I think the numbers and prices for most of the others will speak for themselves.
Now, for some disclaimers..
1) As already noted, this was not a scientific study.
2) I am not saying that the "Short Set" dates are bad deals, merely that, based upon their populations and prices, some of the earlier issues appear to be better relative values.
3) The "demand" factor is a huge one, and, sometimes it simply doesn't matter if one coin or coin type is rarer than another. If the demand isn't there, it might not matter.
4) We sell a lot of MS Walking Liberty Half Dollars to clients - many prefer the "Short Set" issues, while a number prefer earlier dates.
Any and all comments are welcomed.
PS - I first posted this on the Registry Forum in error, so it will now appear in both places.
Currently, CCDN (Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter) bid for the set in MS65 condition is $4534 and, in MS66 grade, it totals $13,300. An MS67 set would present some serious problems, as five of the 20 issues currently have PCGS MS67 populations of fewer than 5 pieces. Never mind that the cost would be well in excess of $60,000, even if the coins could be located.
BUT.....due, in large part, to the attention and popularity of the short set dates, I believe that there are some excellent relative values among the somewhat ignored, non - "Short Set", earlier issues.
For purposes of this brief, completely non - scientific, unprofessional study, I am merely looking at the two lowest priced, pre 1941 issues, the 1939 and 1940 and comparing their PCGS populations and prices to a few of the least expensive "Short Set" issues, the 1941, 1942, 1943 and 1946-D:
Non - "Short Set" dates
1939 MS65 population of 1311 and CCDN bid of $95
1939 MS66 population of 733 and CCDN bid of $177
1940 MS65 population of 1388 and CCDN bid of $80
1940 MS66 population of 614 and CCDN bid of $140
"Short Set" Dates
1941 MS65 population of 3651 and CCDN bid of $98
1941 MS66 population of 1741 and CCDN bid of $160
1942 MS65 population of 4455 and CCDN bid of $98
1942 MS66 population of 1459 and CCDN bid of 180
1943 MS65 population of 5143 and CCDN bid of $82
1943 MS66 population of 1699 and CCDN bid of $187
1946-D MS65 population of 6630 and CCDN bid of 75
1946-D MS66 population of 824 and CCDN bid of $180
A few brief conclusions from the above populations and prices:
Look at the MS65 1939 compared to the MS65 1941 - the 1939 is 2.78 times scarcer, yet sells for slightly less! Compare the MS65 1939 to the MS65 1942 and it's even more dramatic. The MS66 1940 is 2.76 times scarcer than the MS66 1943, but lists for just 74% of the price! I think the numbers and prices for most of the others will speak for themselves.
Now, for some disclaimers..
1) As already noted, this was not a scientific study.
2) I am not saying that the "Short Set" dates are bad deals, merely that, based upon their populations and prices, some of the earlier issues appear to be better relative values.
3) The "demand" factor is a huge one, and, sometimes it simply doesn't matter if one coin or coin type is rarer than another. If the demand isn't there, it might not matter.
4) We sell a lot of MS Walking Liberty Half Dollars to clients - many prefer the "Short Set" issues, while a number prefer earlier dates.
Any and all comments are welcomed.
PS - I first posted this on the Registry Forum in error, so it will now appear in both places.
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Comments
As has been written in many other posts, rarity does not always mean pricey. Someone has to collect them in enough numbers to drive the price up.
Such I believe is the case of the short set.
However, is it also possible that more short set candidates have been slabbed because of their popularity and therefore their pop numbers are higher?
Joe.
Well, Set building can really throw some things out of balance, including common sense, if your not wise. Your point is excellent, and should help restore balance to the (collectors) Universe!
If the extended short set became more popular (1934-1947), then I would expect an upswing in the number of coins graded for the more common dates from 1934-1940.
I do like the short set. You can buy albums for this set, and it is very affordable. This set is even popular in circulated grades. I am always going through my dealers circulated walkers trying to put a set together. I can buy them at silver, and make a little profit as a set. I keep finding the 1946-D to be the toughest date to find in these silver piles.
i think there are always exceptions to the rules and i never thought about UNCLEJOES ((i thought it was orevilles comments but they got the same icon)) comments! very astute
i think the better short set dates ecpecially the stopper to the set the 41-s
has been searched for and really slabbed and tried for regrade many times
i bet the 41-s the pops are way skewed for the 65 graded i bet the pop is overstated by 25% 30% or more also for the 66 graded coins
ngc/pcgs also pops are overstated but not by as much as the 65 grades
also for walkers in the short set the better dates and also the stopper the 41-s i bet original white thick skinned coins never dipped and also rainbow monster toned are the true great undervalued bargains left out there in walkers besides being really really uncommon like that! i think will always be in demand coins!
sincerely michael
Michael, Thank you for the comment though I can't speak for oreville (we both use the same icon).
Joe.
sincerely michael
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
but again there are exceptions
take like an 84 cc dollar that is totally for the most part white and from the GSA horde
AND IS A TOTAL ORIGNAL NEVER DIPED CLEANED COIN
and is a real a real 65 dmpl coin EVEN EVER SO CLOSE TO 66 BOTH SIDES! with an overall eye appeal that is superb/exceptional i cant explainit but one expert saw this coin who has specialized in morgans and dmpl coins and he said it was one of the best overall gem ms65 dollars dmpl or not he has ever saw in over 25 years of doing dollars and this was 5 years ago
really monster this coin would be a really REALLY UNCOMMON COIN something thatis usually not seen with the average even above average 84 cc dmpl dollars in pcgs ms 65!!
and like i said there are always excpetions to the rules!
and this coin even though an 84 cc would be a great coin to buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sincerely michael
i guess like everything it is on a sight seen one on one coin basis
for a superb thread by mark feld
sincerely m ichael
I believe that Swiatek (I may be wrong on my memory) did a nice analysis of the different walkers by year and mm.
My favorite walker has been the Jack Lee 1921-P walker but let me tell you that Russ has put together a superlative set of walkers in MS-64.
Guy, the comparison between the 1940-S and 1941-S walkers in mint state has always fascinated me, in that the 1940-S came even more poorly struck than the 1941-S and yet priced more reasonably. It is a date that does not enjoy being part of the 1941-1947 short set but instead is part of the 1934-1947 medium set.
I have a separate thread on this point on how these "dates" get started.
Gymratt- May I make a slightly different recommendation? Everybody and their mommy tries for the walker Short Set. Why not work backwards into the walker series. You can find MUCH lower Populations at more appealing prices. For instance, the 1941-S is the "king" of the Short Set with a PCGS MS-65 Population of 1,174 and a CU price guide of $1,200. Whereas, the 1936-D has a PCGS MS-65 Population of only 673 and a CU price guide of $380. So, you are buying a coin with a Population just over half that of the '41-S, yet at a price that is 1/3 that of the '41-S!! Personally, I find that a real value.
You don't have any coins like the 1943 with a PCGS MS-65 Population of 5,053 or the 1946-D with a PCGS MS-65 Population of 6,518. Now, when you get into year 1929 and earlier, then the Populations get really small and the prices get really large.
There are some real values in the coins with dates prior to the Short Set.
.............................. it all depends as
there are always exceptions to the rules
ALWAYS BUY THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HERE is one exception to the rules!
a 41-s that looks like this coin in this attatched file ms-66 totally original undipped and lusterous with rainbow rim toning and a decent strike
beats ANY same graded ms-66 1936-d white/white dipped or most all other ms 66 walkers white/white dipped hands down
in terms of value for the money
sincerely michael
While, for a number of reasons, I don't think the population/census reports are necessarily accurate in terms of numbers, I think they serve us very well for assessing relative rarity. And, according to the reports, in some regards, the 1941-S is only a queen or servant to the 1942-S.
The combined NGC and PCGS population for all grades of the 1941-S is 9467 vs. 8154 for the 1942-S. In MS66 grade, the combined 1941-S population is 266 vs. 234 for the 1942-S. And, in MS67 grade the 1941-S population is 13 vs. 3 for the 1942-S.
The 1942-S may now take a bow.