If you were to guess at how accurate the pop reports were...

FC57Coins

Which series would you say is the most accurate, least accurate and what percentage of accuracy would you give the population reports and why?

billiardmaster

There are a lot of crack out nuts who throw the insert away. I would not be surprised if as many as 20% of the inserts have been
tossed out. We are talking 15+ years. That is my best guess for PCGS. Probably less for other services.
Rusty

MadMonk

I don't even want to guess! (even though I did take the poll). I guess the higher thr dollar value, the higher the error rate.

Steve27

The lower-pop high-grade classics are probably the worst, due to the crack-out game.

cointagious

most accurate in the classics would be hi end (ms64+) $2½ & $5 indians. very few crack-outs in those series. worst accuracy for the classics, imho, would be mid range bu and better morgans, in general, and specifically those dates with large jumps in bids between grades tho that crack-out market is becoming mature.

agentjim007

100% accurate if you use the pop reports the only way they're any good anymore and thats is you know there are no more than what is listed in the report.

FC57Coins

bumpie

BillJones

The pop reports don't amount to much at all. ALL of these factors make them incomplete:

· Cracks outs and resubmissions of same coins, sometimes time and time again.
· Improperly graded coins
· Coins in major collections that have never been slabbed. This is a very big factor when one looks at early copper.
· Misattributed varieties.
· Body bagged coins that don’t count or coins that had problems that prevented them ever being submitted. A rare coin that has been body bagged is still a rare and perhaps an important coin.
· Coins that have “gone to the dogs” after they were slabbed. This applies to coins that had chemical residues on them when they were holdered that have now died and gone to coin heaven.
· Coins in “Brand X” slabs – not all of them are dogs, and some of them might be rare and important.

In general the fact that one must pay a fee to have a coin graded and considered at all for the pop reports invalidates the pop reports. I’d be far more likely to trust the condition census and estimated population information that collectors and authors have assembled over the years. While that information is limited by what the compilers have seen or had reported to them, it has not been limited by the fact that the owners had to pay a fee to get the coins on the list.

I’ve never bought a pop report, and I never will. I’d sooner spend my money on a good die variety book or join a specialist collector club. The information compiled by the interest group has a much better chance of being better.

Hadleydog

Interesting post, Frank. I would hazard to guess that the good old Morgan is the least accurate series in the pop report. Being the most highly collected coin, and given the large numbers in existance would seem to make it the logical choice. Within the morgan series, the last coin before the big price jump on most dates would probably be the most off......folks resubmitting trying to make that next grade.
I have a question.......when you submit a coin for cross-over, does pcgs let ngc (or vice versa) know? Or does that coin now count for 1 in the pcgs pop report and also 1 in the ngc report?

BillJones

I have a question.......when you submit a coin for cross-over, does pcgs let ngc (or vice versa) know? Or does that coin now count for 1 in the pcgs pop report and also 1 in the ngc report?

Question #1 NO

Question # 2 Yes, if it is graded

If you check out the line in the PCGS for the 1854-D $3 gold coin, you might come to the conclusion that it was almost common in AU condition. That's not the case. The same coins have been submitted multiple times in hopes of the getting the rare and much wanted MS grade. The pop figures for that coin are inflated.

nwcs

I'd say you would find the reports highly accurate in some places and very inaccurate in others. I'd say inaccurate anywhere where one grade higher means lots more money or where the coin is rare. And very accurate where the coin's value doesn't change much between grades or is very common. I'd say populations of 1881S Morgans in MS63 are fairly accurate, while AU-50 - MS-62 pops of 1884S Morgans are inaccurate.

Neil

flaminio

Wasn't there some coins whose pops were greater than the total mintage? Lots of crackouts....

shylock

Every series has it's date and grade level where a downgrade is cheap enough and upgrade profitable enough to risk cracking a coin out. I'd bet many of the more common Indian cent dates in MS65RD are loaded with duplicates.

coinkat

They are not accurate for many reasons...several have been mentioned. Pop reports seem to be used as a means to make the common look rare and it doesn't work.

roadrunner

For comparison purposes for say type coins, it is relatively accurate and very useful. Same would be true for commonly collected date series like Morgans, 20th century, Indians, etc. For specific dates that are either very rare or ultra grade rarities in can certainly be misleading and far off. For an 1867-s quarter I'd submit that the pops are 100% accurate. There are no duplicates listed. No Drapery halves for example in PCGS-63, the pops are out to lunch.....most notably PCGS.

If you want to compare how an UNC seated dollar compares in rarity to a proof Morgan.....the pops are excellent at nailing this down.
Comparing how $5 Indians in 64 or higher compare to other gold type coins....excellent. The pops have their usefullness. You get out of them what you put into them. If you expend nothing in your own research, I'm not surprised that they are worthless to you.

roadrunner

michael

well always mistakes and also some series have really high inflated pops like the flyers in 64 the pops for thst coin are way way overstated as to get an upgrade is multiples of 64 price for a 65 and you never ever see many 64 coins for sale also early vommems especially so for many issues and during the comme boom of the late 1980's to early 1990's the pops are overstated by 35% or more for the jump in price for 64 to 65 65 to 66 and so on

there are many coins and series like that

in fact i was looking at a combined pop for a proof gold coin the other day total at pcgs and ngc 31
yet the mintage for this coin and it is accurate is 25..............lol

i guess it deopenss on the coin and series

also, some like to play gmes and resubmit the same coin and get the pop run up then try to buy the others certified then submit the tags and pop goes down and they gots all the coins

some really finest known coins that were submitted for grading again where the pops are low under 5 to beguin with and the coins got upgraded they forgot to reduce the pop and added the higher pop one coin

i have personally seen this more than once and this person i know has proved this beyond a shadow of a doubt and has called the slabbing company and to this day still has not made the pops right or corrected the mechnical error


such is the coin slabbing game

i guess you have to know waht you are buying and specialize ib what you are collecting and buyiong and know the true rarity of such and let the pop reports be damned now i do like the reports it is a good reasearxh and decsison making tool but in lots of instances it is really super misleading

in other instances it is really good

i guess it all depends on what you are looking for and waht you yourself are collecting and for many promoting........lol

which is okie as long as you go into the game with your eyes wide open and no expectations and with a critical eye of a specialist in the series you are specializing in

sincerely michael