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Think ahead to the year 2013...Predictions, please!
MrEureka
Posts: 23,949 ✭✭✭✭✭
Over the course of the next ten years, what will be the biggest change in the coin business?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Russ, NCNE
many more small coin shops will disappear
Sundays will be a busy day at large national shows because the small dealers will be there in the spots that the big dealers vacated
I will be a high end coin dealer
lol
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Online imaging will get better, at some point it will be possible to "rotate" a coin just like you would in person and see how light reflects off it at different angles. The infrastructure required to support this is considerable and may not be ubiquitous in ten years, but it will be a lot closer than it is today.
The grading services aren't going anywhere, there are too many collectors that demand the extra opinion, for authenticity on very rare coins if nothing else. Grading standards will continue to "evolve" (or "deteriorate" depending on your point of view), they are a constantly changing thing and will never be stable. As the services have a lot of incentive to keep pushing grades up, and little room to work with, watch for somebody to introduce decimal grading at some point. Today's 67 may become a 67.5 or 68.5. If HRH says he's never thought about this, don't believe him
Specialization will increase, clubs will emerge to look at more and more special interests, i.e. full step Jeffs, "full torch" Roosies, or whatever. The services will continue to try and create these kinds of grading niches to garner more business (can't blame 'em for trying to make buck - this is America!). Anyone for "full beard" Lincolns? I'm sure the services sit around brainstorming these kinds of things and no doubt have a few ideas up their sleeve.
Somebody will try "fingerprinting" or "computer grading" coins again, as the technology to map 3-d objects becomes more accessible and perhaps even available to the hobbyist for a reasonable fee. I would not look for the services to ever 3-d image every coin that comes through the gates - the handling fee is just too expensive, even if the technology was free. They get what - 5 seconds a coin or something like that? However, the capacity to consistently grade a coin the exact same way, every time, is a very appealing concept, so as the technology gets cheaper someone will try it, though perhaps on a limited scale. I could envision a "combo" grade where the computer grades it & then a human modifies the grade based on "eye appeal" - this part of grading will always be subjective.
I guess none of this is really radical - just evolutions of what we already have. How does everyone else see it?
<< <i>Over the course of the next ten years, what will be the biggest change in the coin business? >>
.....................new common coins in top-pop will be found in the bargan bins......a massive hoard of franklin half dollars will be found, and purchased by some large company for over 7 million dollars..kind of like the ...redfeild hoard......after a few months of incasing them like those redfeild dollars. full page adds will run in coinworld, and sold to the public.........it will be the sale of the century.....it will be known as.........the hep kitty find........and rival such collections as... binnion...redfeild...and the u.s. goverment gsa sale...
will be at the top of the heap. Rarity , quality and beauty will rule.
Camelot
1. 80% of all coin deals will take place on line.
2. Grading will be far less subjective.
3. There will be substantially fewer grading services.
4. Counterfeiting will be a much bigger problem.
5. World coins will account for a far larger share of the market.
6. Vintage Franklin Mint products will be in great demand.
7. Unimaginably vast quantities of coins will have been recovered from the ocean floor.
8. Online coin clubs will be wildly popular.
9. There will be far fewer coin shows.
and the biggest change of all....
#10 Karl will agree!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
You got to be kidding!!!!
I predict after thousands of collector's were scammed by the state quarter investment scams and Coin Vault nonsense, many will dump their coins at any price on ebay. The remaining coins which will appreciate or maintain value will be truly rare coins [i.e. less than 100 known accross all grades/services]. Pop tops will be an expression of derision as will registry sets. No one will fess up to having completed or started a registry set.
ACG will slab 50% of all coins........just kidding.
It is fraught with effects that could disrupt the very fabric of time and space itself.
Camelot
<< <i>..............new common coins in top-pop will be found in the bargan bins...... >>
After 40 years of being nearly completely ignored it seems highly unlikely the "new
common coins" will run their course in a ten year period. It's also difficult to believe
that collectors will suddenly decide that "new common coins" are suddenly uncollect-
ible. And, of course, they would almost have to come to this conclusion if even the
"pop tops" have a nominal value. Perhaps I'm reading too much into the statement,
but it doesn't apply to any of the moderns I'm familiar with, unless something becomes
common in the highest grades.
In any case in ten years it's likely that most of the current trends will still be going
fairly strong. The economy will start getting very strong in the mid 00's and inflation
will start picking up strongly toward the end of the decade. This will drive prices of
many coins higher still. The states quarters will suffer some loss in 2009 or so, but
the magnitude of this loss is far more dependent on what happens in the future than
what has already transpired. Moderns will have taken a hit at about the same time,
but to a lesser degree. They should recover more quickly. 2013 will be near the peak
of the market, but prices are likely to slow or stop their advances and become more dif-
ficult to sell rather than take significant hits. A few selected series (mostly classics) may
actually continue to drift up.
Watch the major trends. Any turn in these could cause a dramatically different situation.
Pennies make dollars, and dollars make slabs!
....inflation must be kicking in again this dollar says spend by Dec. 31 2004!
Erik
2-coins will be worth less than now but because of deflation will be worth a lot more in real dollars,
3-online will be 105% of the entire coin market,
4-grading services still around but will start slabbing many new things,
5-federal control of grading services will begin in 2005 as a revenue raiser for the feds,
6-ana and ans will merge then go bankrupt,
7-us will become a second rate power economically and oil will no longer be paid for with usdollars but eurodollars,
8-us unemployment will hit 15% to 20% hence #1, many coin dealers and collectors looking for work,
9-salvaging for old coins with metal detectors will become #1 growing aspect of the hobby,
10-much more......
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Glenn
2) Possibly demand will be such that many universities will offer master’s and Ph.D. degrees in numismatics.
mcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu">dmcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu
Glenn
The "12 million dollar inventory company", will have long gone under
PCGS and NGC will merge, forming PNGS. They will provide a universal holder, accepted at both registries.
PNGS will have graded, 8,704 1963 PR70RD DCAM Lincolns.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Mr. Eureka was spot on as far as the Franklin Mint stuff, in that most of it is at least silver, and silver has done well since 2003.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
<< <i>Such a good thread to dredge up, as it's almost 2013!
Mr. Eureka was spot on as far as the Franklin Mint stuff, in that most of it is at least silver, and silver has done well since 2003. >>
He does seem to have it as well as anyone else (and was more specific). Some
of the FM world coins are smoking hot now days. A lot of world coins are hot now.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.