Better coins, wrong holder

tradedollarnut

At what point do you buy a better coin in an NGC holder? Is it price dependent, or will you never even consider it?

I got offered an upgrade today at a very high price. The coin is better than mine, even if only by a half a grade [how do I know? Miles told me once!]. But these days, it might never make it into a PCGS holder at that grade. I will swear up and down that I know it's a better coin - by at least half a grade. At what point do I spend the money and upgrade the coin? Do I do it even if I know it won't cross? Or do I not even consider it unless it crosses or the price drops midway?

Kool Aid addicts and abstainers welcome to answer!

FC57Coins

I regularly buy NGC or PCGS depending on what the coin looks like. Generally you can tell if the grade is accurate or not.

Frank

jbsteven

I assume you could resell it for near what you paid if it does not cross.

buy it

dragon

If the coin is a full 1/2 point better than yours without question, you go for it regardless of holder. All these holders may not even matter in the next 5-10 years anyway, so you must go by the coin itself if you are trying to assemble the finest of each date.

Now if the coin is only marginally 1/2 point better than yours, and the price is absurd, you keep yours, holders or no holders.

dragon

rainbowroosie

Do you collect coins or plastic??? Buy the coin.

MrEureka

TDN -

If both coins were raw, how much more would you pay for the better one?


Edited to correct (what I hope was a temporary flash of) stupidity.

braddick

The Coin wins everytime. Even in a PCI or SEGS or ANACS holder.
Do I prefer PCGS and NGC? Of course, but not at the exclusion of the COIN.

lordmarcovan

<< <i>At what point do you buy a better coin in an NGC holder? >>



Any time the price is right. This is true of a coin in any holder, except The-Unmentionable-You-Know-Who service. And maybe some of the crappy no-name fly-by-night "grading services" all over eBay lately.

I'll buy PCGS, NGC, ANACS, ICG, PCI, or SEGS, in roughly that order of preference. In PCGS versus NGC, they're about equal in my sight, with only a slight preference for PCGS because of higher demand.

I cannot think of any situation where NGC would be the "wrong" holder, except maybe in a Set Registry situation. That's the only time I've ever been a strict PCGS-only buyer, mostly because I hate the hassle and uncertainty of crossovers.

tradedollarnut

If both coins were raw, how much more would you pay for the better one?

No fair quoting my exact sentiments back to me, I'm trying to elicit independent responses!

MS68

Bruce- I want the best coin I can find for each and every one of my fifty piece commem set. I would prefer the coin to be PCGS but will buy the coin raw, NGC or even accujack if "the coin" is all there. I will only pass on a coin for my set if I feel I am being taken advantage of in the pricing. With that said, I do not pass very often.

coinkat

TDN:

In some ways, I am happy not to have to make that decision. However, if I did, I would consider the following:

1. How often does the coin in this grade come on the market?
2. When did the coin appear at auction last and what did it sell for?
3. Has the demand increased/decreased for the series since then?
4. If you buy it now, does it immediately have to be crossed over?
5. Does the coin have the technical requirements to be an upgrade over the coin you currently own?
6. In your opinion and the opnions of those that you trust, does the coin have greater eye appeal than the one you currently own?

There is one other question worhty of contemplating and I think you know what it is... good luck with your decision.

The bottom line is if this coin is that rare in this grade, when will the opportunity present itself to purchase a better example if that is your objective?

dragon

Just buy and hoard them all, that's what Virgil Brand did. He was one of the only famous collectors who never sold off his lesser grade coins after he upgraded them. In fact, he would often purchase entire large collections intact just to get one or two pieces he needed. At major auctions he attended, he often purchased up to 70% of the entire auction. As an example, in 1893, Brand liked $3.00 gold pieces, so he purchased -120- unc. 1878 $3.00 coins, then purchased -3- 1794 dollars that same year, followed by -300- Isabella quarters. Also in 1893, Brand purchased -10- 1893 proof quarter eagles, and -10- complete 1893 proof sets, in addition to a large hoard of Bust Halves, Gobrecht dollars, many flowing hair coins, 41 territorial gold pieces, a hoard of large cents, etc. And all this was before he even started getting serious about coins.

So what does this have to do with buying a Trade dollar??? I dunno, I just like talking about Virgil Brand.

roadrunner

If the coin is truly a half point nicer and most everyone you show it too agrees, then I'd buy the coin if it was no more than a small 5-20% permium over the price of the lower coin. Even if you pass, there is always another nice coin to replace, and it may even by in the holy grail of holders too.

roadrunner

DAM

TDN,

It sounds like you've made up your mind and you need a nudge. Assuming the coin grades 64 to 67, and you're characterising the coin in question as being a half a grade better, we're talking less a small mark, slightly less rub, etc. difference.

To most collectors it wouldn't make a difference. But to someone who must have the best, a small mark, little more rub, etc. will keep you up at nights. If you want it, buy it!

Worse case scenario, you hold both coins. For a while.

zenny

TDN

my question to you is why you care whether the coin would cross:

1: to resell for profit

2: like the slab better

3: that "registry" thing

4: fill in the blank.

If it is an "upgrade" i'm guessing it's going into a personal collection, and if it's a significant upgrade at a reasonable price i don't really understand the question (and if i don't understand the question, wait till Dorkkarl gets here) unless you have answered "3" to the above.



z

sinin1

Have you completed all the sets you are working on? If not, I would spend money on completion of sets before upgrading, unless you have a real dog in one of the spots which does not seem to be the case.

Gilbert

Providing cost is NOT an issue, I think the answer is relatively simple.

If you could only have one of the two, which one would it be?

That said, keep them both. Considering the caliber of coins you collect, you just might realize an even better return after holding both for a while.

Coinosaurus

TDN-

If the coin is better, buy it. I'm assuming you clearly prefer the coin that was offered. Worry about crossing it later if at all. The PCGS cross rate can't stay zero forever

Btw, if you are looking for awesome chopped TDs, send me your 73-CC and 78-CC & I will take care of you

Regards,
Cantankerous Coinosaurus

WWW

Hey TDN, show us an image of both coins and we will fairly and objectively render an opinion.

tradedollarnut

Thanks for the responses all! Let me add more info:

The NGC coin is a common date in extremely uncommon condition. The dollar amount difference is enough to make even me have second (and third) thoughts. Absolutely, I would buy it in a second at a 25% markup over my current coin, but right now we're talking a 200% markup over my current coin!

Most of you seemed to think I am going to do it but need a last little nudge. Quite the opposite is actually true - there is very little chance I'd pay that kind of premium for a half a grade of quality. Now what do you think?

RYK

TDN,

I just read the thread. Upgrading does not seem to be a wise move from an fiscal standpoint. If it were me, I would rather deploy the money where it has a greater impact on my collection.

Robert

wayneherndon

It almost sounds like someone has put a "special" price on it knowing your interest, means and determination to have the the best in the series. They may have jacked it up quite a bit hoping you'll bite and they'll make a killing and in the event you pass, they'll have to take far less from someone else. You know more about the situation, obviously. If you think this is the case, I'd recommend passing and then seeing if you can have an agent (perhaps not your usual one) by it anonymously for you.

If you don't think they're jerking you around but are still unreasonably high, how about making them a counter that is more reasonable but still more than they'd be able to get anywhere else. Leave the offer open awhile and let them shop the coin. If your counter is priced right, they'll likely be back to you with the coin at a lower price, if not at your counter offer.

WH

cladking

Price is always the determining factor for me. Yes, I'll pay far over market for
some coins, but generally if the price is low enough anything is fair game.

I have a rule for upgrading my "from circulation" set. A coin has to be clearly
superior. By that I mean that the new coin has to have no or fewer problems
AND it has to be better struck, AND it has to have less wear. This is similar to
the rules for upgrades in my other collections.

DAM

...I would buy it in a second at a 25% markup over my current coin, but right now we're talking a 200% markup over my current coin!

It all becomes clear now. It's not a nudge you need, it's a bulldozer!

200%!!!!!! Sounds like some others have said... it might be because it was known you would want it.

The bright side would appear to be that the markup is in your favor, if the coin sells to someone other than you. That would indicate a strong interest in the series. Or, at least that one coin.

Android

TDN,

Would you pay the 200% markup if it was in a PCGS holder?

Andy

joejeweler

Hehehe.....and my co-workers thought i was nuts! HE had it BADDD!

Joe T



<< <i>Just buy and hoard them all, that's what Virgil Brand did. He was one of the only famous collectors who never sold off his lesser grade coins after he upgraded them. In fact, he would often purchase entire large collections intact just to get one or two pieces he needed. At major auctions he attended, he often purchased up to 70% of the entire auction. As an example, in 1893, Brand liked $3.00 gold pieces, so he purchased -120- unc. 1878 $3.00 coins, then purchased -3- 1794 dollars that same year, followed by -300- Isabella quarters. Also in 1893, Brand purchased -10- 1893 proof quarter eagles, and -10- complete 1893 proof sets, in addition to a large hoard of Bust Halves, Gobrecht dollars, many flowing hair coins, 41 territorial gold pieces, a hoard of large cents, etc. And all this was before he even started getting serious about coins.

So what does this have to do with buying a Trade dollar??? I dunno, I just like talking about Virgil Brand. >>

cardinal

TDN,

After viewing your incredible trade dollar collection at the last Long Beach show, I can tell you are seeking to assemble the very best set that you are able to. So, I suspect that the offered upgrade coin would represent the "finest known" for the date, rather than just an upgrade from, say, a "64" to a "64.5," when 65's are out there. In my opinion the status of being the single finest known specimen of something does give it some intangible "extra." Nonetheless, as Einstein said, everything is relative and must be taken in perspective.

I think the real key for all of us collectors is our TRUE underlying objective. Are these coins really just objects to be collected for the pure joy of it? Or are there other financial agendas?

When we collect for the pure joy of it, with NO thought of future resale and profit/loss, we balance the relativity equation so that "Dollars = Enjoyment." The upgrade coin sounds like it is very costly, and not enormously superior to your existing specimen. Would the upgrade really increase your enjoyment as much as spending that money on some other expansion of your collections? Perhaps acquiring a number of top quality Seated Dollars with the money may bring you more enjoyment in the future than the half-point upgrade of a Trade Dollar. (The James Stack BU specimen of the 1870-S Seated Dollar is to be auctioned off by Stacks in May!) Or, perhaps, it would constantly bug you if you pass on the upgrade, and you will always regret "the one that got away." The real question is, which action would bring you more enjoyment?

By contrast, when we collect coins with the addition of a financial agenda, we subconsciously or intentionally evaluate future resale, and seek to balance the relativity equation so that "Dollars today = More Dollars tomorrow." You obviously want the upgrade coin enough to be seriously considering its purchase. What would some future buyer of coins from your set want to do? Would the title of "finest known" create sufficient demand for this specimen that it would increase in value more than your current specimen? Perhaps so. It seems that single finest specimens always bring big money at sale. Or, as you say, this coin is a common date in uncommon condition, could this be the classic coin equivalent of MS/PR-70 modern coins? Many lesser grade specimens exist, and maybe future collectors won't be quite as smitten with "ultra-grade" coins, so they wouldn't give it as much a premium. If part of your decision is a financial one based on future resale (even subconsciously), then you need to seriously evaluate its potential future value, and make the decision that brings you more potential for the future.

As you can see, I have no definite opinion on whether you should make the purchase or not, so this isn't really a nudge or bulldozer in either direction. I hope though that some of these "big picture" concepts might help focus your decision process.

-- Cardinal

Clankeye

TDN--
I'm just curious. Because you are so well known as having the finest tradedollar set, do you find people try to hold you up on prices if they have a great example they think you will want?

I would think there is peril in being at the top. 200 percent... yikes.
Glad you have the presence of mind to hold out.

I don't think there is any more acute pain, then being a true collector of certain coins, finding an example that you know is great, but also finding it can only be viewed on planet Mars through a telescope, because the price attached is out of this world.

Carl

MadMonk

200% is quite a hike. I like Wayne Herndons advice. Years ago, when I was very heavy in my specialty,
Dealers would either groan, or drool, when I showed up at thier table. I had a reputation, and They either thought they could stiff me, or thought I knew a coin would upgrade, and they would be out a few bucks. A lot would ask my opinions of grade, to send for cert, etc. (remember Homerunhalls statement that a lot of dealers can't grade? My take as well) So, there was many a time that I sent a third party after a coin that I wanted. I'd say It worked 75% of the time. The rest of the time, after considering all relevant factors, I gulped and paid the money if the coin was superb, and I was 100% sure thats what I should pay. Basically, for me, it's all evened out. And yes I have gone 200% over sheet, and the pride of owning the piece still outweighs the irk of paying so much. But, There is always a dollar amount that you know in your bones is too high.

dollarmike

Hi TDN

I have been faced with this decision many times recently, and when the cost is only slightly more for a coin I have jumped on it. (for a slightly better coin)

IMO, In this case, the cost is too prohibitive versus the minimal gain in the condition of the coin.

In addition, the seller realizes that you want the best for your collection and is probably trying to take advantage of that situation. (perhaps waiting it out might work to your advantage)

Good luck with your tough decision!

jd4science

I'd go for the better coin, but is having a worse coin more important in a reg set than having a better coin that you can't register?

tradedollarnut

I'm just curious. Because you are so well known as having the finest tradedollar set, do you find people try to hold you up on prices if they have a great example they think you will want?

Absolutely.


I guess there are also two intangibles at play - first and foremost, as Cardinal states, the coin in question is the finest known for the date. Second, the coin I own was discovered in Seattle which used to be my hometown so it adds to the coin's allure for me personally.

I think what I will do is figure out a fair price for the quality difference [after I've seen the coin] and stick to it. The two intangibles tend to cancel each other out.

but is having a worse coin more important in a reg set than having a better coin that you can't register?

This issue actually plays very little part in my decision. I have already decided to keep the Vermeule NGC MS65 1873CC and sell my PCGS coin because the Vermeule coin is significantly finer. What has more to do with the issue at hand is trying to find a balance between the desire for the best coin [not just the best grade] and the monetary cost for fine increments of quality.

EVillageProwler

I think what I will do is figure out a fair price for the quality difference [after I've seen the coin] and stick to it.

I would suggest a somewhat modified approach:

Tell the jerk who's trying to poke you up your nether hind orifice *and* take your money that you already have a MAX price in mind (of $10K less than we discussed privately), and that upon seeing the coin, you may lower the coin even more commensurate with its actual quality. I think that is an imminently fair bid. After all, it's not like you're filling a hole!

EVP

EVillageProwler

Keep in mind that if you pass on the coin, it may be a long time before the seller gets another serious nibble. Moreover, you're also sending out the strong message that the agent for the owner is unrealistic *and* that the TDN ATM machine is now closed.

If the agent still wants that kind of silly money, then you can tell that jerk to approach the Pogues and bring knee pads.

EVP

dorkkarl

you buying the coin or the holder? it's an absurdly simple question

K S

DCAMFranklin

Regarding the crossing issue. Some young, 20 year-old punk that may not be working at PCGS in 6 months, who is NOT "a world-class grader", passes judgement on the coin and you worry about it??

I will buy a quality NGC coin all day long. At the high end of the scale where you collect, I really don't find any disparity in grading ability. At all!!

After reading you post at the bottom of the page, I feel pretty certain I would never pay that kind of a premium for 1/2 point increase in quality. Even if I win the lotto tonight.

koynekwest

I keep seeing posts here about how great NGC is. Just because the've been in the game for a long time doesn't mean they're a good grading service. I think they su*k. Their "variety experts" know less about variety coins than the least talented person at ANACS in spite of all the books published by these "experts."
I still can't figure out why NGC is held in such high esteem. I've seen more overgraded coins in NGC holders than in any other major service's holders. I think they are vastly over-rated. For one thing, look at the population of Washington Quarters in MS66 and better. NGC has a 3X or 4X higher population than does PCGS. Do they see this many more submissions than PCGS? I think not.

EVillageProwler

koynekwest,

You do TDN a disservice by trying to hijack this thread to one of your agenda -- a PCGS vs NGC issue. TDN said in his initial post that Miles Standish once told him that the "new" coin in question (the one in an NGC slab) is better than the one that he currently has, which is in a PCGS slab.

That is really all you need to know, and from which to try to offer honest, sincere advice to a fellow board member.

EVP

MrEureka

TDN -

Have you considered offering PCGS the option of removing your PCGS coin from the holder in exchange for crossing the Vermeule coin? If they really believe that it is better, it might be in everybody's best interest, no?

dorkkarl

why waste time & effort worrying about a "pcgs vs ngc" issues? why not just buy coins that YOU LIKE?

K S

MrEureka

why not just buy coins that YOU LIKE?

I'm not sure, Karl, but could it have something to do with resale value?

coinkat

Base upon the additional information you provided, I would have serious reservations. Good luck...

topstuf

I've seen good and bad in all services. ANACS seems to be coming on pretty strong lately. I buy the coin and not the holder. Even Ackacrack. But for UNIFORMITY I have lately been very happy with ANACS.
They do seem tough on gold though.

dorkkarl

<< <i>"why not just buy coins that YOU LIKE?" I'm not sure, Karl, but could it have something to do with resale value? >>

dagnabit mr-eureka, you got me again! i thought this was a forum for collectors!

my bad. ...

K S