Once Again the Market 'Sizzles' * yawn *

Askari

The headline for the PCGS eCollector's Market Report this week is "It's Long Beach Week! Gold Joins the Party Once Again as Market Sizzles." Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that they've been reporting that the market is "sizzling" since about, oh, forever?? I mean, don't they have a thesaurus at PCGS HQ? Should we take up a collection???

Or is "sizzles" just something automatically thrown in? Sometimes their Market Report on a show appears to have little or no correspondence to what members here have reported about the shows. What do y'all think about the current market? Can it "sizzle" and have "no new material" (the most common complaint I've been hearing) at the same time?

Outhaul

It's called "creating hype." I don't think anything they write is indicative of what's happening in the real world. At least...when I talk with those who are/were in attendance at some of these shows, they didn't see it. But then...you can't be everywhere or see everything.

Cheers,

Bob

MtMan

I ignore those reports, they seem to have no basis in reality. According to them the market is always hot.

nwcs

It's the same thing as the adjectives used in auction catalogs. You think that they look up a thesaurus and just go down the list for each coin! Same with these. If you convince some people it is sizzling, pretty soon it will be so.

michael

yes the market is sizzling it is true but let me put it this way

of all the kosher beef poit hot dogs on the grill

less than 10% are sizzling with a hot fire underneath them

the others still need charcoal charcoal lighter and a match!!


also do you know the one word defination of advertising?..............lies well really puffery and there is nothing wrong with that as long as you do not dive in headfirst.

sincerely michael

Bear

When something is sizziling on the grill,

it means that it is probably dead.

Monstavet

Yes, they often report a "sizzling" market, that eveything is hot, and prices are skyhigh....followed by recommendations to buy everything, right now, today, while the prices are sky high...because when they are sky high, the only place they can go is outer space, right? Good investment strategy...you guys do that! Know anyone who bought AOL when it was sky high, sizzling, and hot hot hot? I am not saying the ony reason to buy coins is for investment purposes...in fact I never buy for that...but be smart and buy smart.

Askari

Oh, I know it's hype -- but it's boring hype!! What are your opinions on the current market -- fer real?? Cherry red hot, well done, lukewarm, over easy, or dead and cold?

gmarguli

I ignore those reports, they seem to have no basis in reality. According to them the market is always hot.

Sounds about right. The market could be 99.999% dead and they would point to that .001% and call it HOT!

Bear

Modestly hot for top grade or nicely toned coins. Warm for type coins and classic commems.

An increasing number of supposedly hot coins are not reaching there selling price at auctions

and are returned to owner minus fee. this is at best ,a mixed market and one that says caution.

Quality coins at reasonable prices are the true and tried way to avoid disaster. Dont chase

the expensive high flyers. To do so, is to risk suffering a sever drop in that coins value as

tasts change and the economy weakens and margin calls again ripple thru the stock market.

smprfi

That is the problem with this hobby.Not enough people with long term memory loss.I guess we didn't experiment with our drugs enough.

Outhaul

When you're making a market in the market you're reporting on you're making the market for your market which is great marketing strategy to ensure a good market share.

Cheers,

Bob

RotatedRainbows

I don't know about some of you people, the next thing you are going to do is claim this DIRECT QUOTE from the PCGS eCollector email is incorrect!!

Fun, educational, and sometimes controversial, the PCGS SET
REGISTRY MESSAGEBOARD remains the number one informative coin
forum on the Internet.

I defy anyone to try and come up with a more informative coin forum anywhere on the Internet then the Registry board.

Askari

Actually, RR, over the years, I've learned more from this one than the Registry Forum.

kranky

How true, Askari. Every comment on the market I've ever seen since I've been in this hobby says it's "hot". It's funny - apparently the market has been hot since 1970.

gmarguli

<< <i>I don't know about some of you people, the next thing you are going to do is claim this DIRECT QUOTE from the PCGS eCollector email is incorrect!!

Fun, educational, and sometimes controversial, the PCGS SET
REGISTRY MESSAGEBOARD remains the number one informative coin
forum on the Internet.

I defy anyone to try and come up with a more informative coin forum anywhere on the Internet then the Registry board. >>





That's funny. The registry forum is dead. It gets a few posts a day and that is it. AND most of those posts are non-registry related.

RCC is on the same level as that forum,and that is pretty bad.

paigowjohnny

I think people are paying stupid money for toned coins right now, and while there will always be a fan base...I think there will be a reckoning sooner or later....

Askari

Gee, Johnny, do you mean I probably shouldn't be still holding onto these rare tulips?

oreville

I have made the observation to David Hall many times that his site doesn't even have a term between ok and hot to describe how well a coin series is doing. That puts undue burden on David to describe a coin series as "hot" when in fact such series might just be "warm."

Is the word warm on the way out? Is it a dirty word? A politically incorrect word? A word too tied in with the insane? Hmmm...

I suggest we get politically active and have a big pow-wow and lobby for Mr. Warm!!!!

shirohniichan

I guess "sizzling" sounds better than "burning" or "roasting," even if it is overused.

BillJones

Reports like this resemble the headlines on "The Coin Dealer Newsletter." The CDN is always a cheerleader for the coin market. If the Newsletter implies that the market is at all slow, it's dead as a doornail. It's one of those markets where you couldn't sell coins for under "bid" to your best friend.

Tonelover

Reports like this resemble the headlines on "The Coin Dealer Newsletter." The CDN is always a cheerleader for the coin market.

I noticed that their headlines are always screaming about how positive everything is but when you read the text they say things like "there are some selective minus' or decreased bids as dealers are staying liquid in anticipation of the next major show" or something like that.

coinkat

Well, lets think about this for a moment... instead of sizzles, we could say the market is currently undervalued based on the increased sales experienced by major dealers... or The market is bursting to new highs not seen in years... or Coins continue to move higher as the next leg of the bull market kicks in... or Market stampedes higher... or Collector interest is key in market advance... or High grade collector coins lead the market higher... the possibilities are endless.

oreville

I do see that many prices at the Goldberg and Heritage auctions are going for crazy prices. Something is up.

ANACONDA

"What do y'all think about the current market? "

I think it's very hot (for coins other than white quarters dated 1815 in NGC 65 holders....hey, if i can have a sense of humor, so can you!)...
and the bluesheet seems to give some credibility to my assertion.....303 plus signs (man that took a long time to count!) versus 53 minus signs in the one that was delivered to me today (dated 02-21-03).

And, 134 plus signs vs. 32 negs for the one dated Feb. 14th.

My sales have been very good both on and off eBay, and from talking to other dealers, sales have been good for them too however, i have spoken to one dealer in US currency that says things have been not too good for him here recently and he normally buys and sells probably about 100K per month, give or take 25K (just my best guess...). It is my experience that high grade U.S. Large sized notes are soft in 65 and better.

adrian

dragon

Yes, I have noticed in the past that the currency market seems to be somewhat detached from the mainstream rare coin market, and also that currency doesn't seem to catch the hype as much. I think it's a more stable market and more collector driven.

dragon

ah

All I can is sizzzle on!
I do believe the market is cooking.

ANACONDA

Ya know, i don't get all yippy tie eye aye when i see that prices are going up. What i want to see are slowly upwardly creeping prices and a stable, steady market with a lot of economic activity.

When prices start going crazy, people get left holding the bag, so to speak.

It's like hot potato. Whoever is left holding the coin when the music stops, loses.

adrian

braddick

All I know is the stuff I like to collect is now about 20%, or more, than the last Long Beach. (Examples: toned proof PCGS sixties Roosevelts. Toned Morgans. high grade circulated, no problem type.)
That's the only test that is valid for me.

Baley

lots of wisdom in anaconda's post,
look at the parallel when the SIZZLING stock market cooled off:
the "new hot" stocks that went up the most, and most recently, got crushed back to "spare change" prices. I'm not talking about scams and fraud, like enron or worldcom, but decent companies that just got waaaaay too ahead of themsleves, like jds uniphase, advanced micro circuits, etc.
the "old steady" stocks, which had been around a decade or 10, also went down as the overall market declined, but not nearly as much, for they had history and a following behind them they are still desireable companies to own because they increase profits, and therefore stock value, steadily.
in the stock bubble pop, several exceptional "modern" companies are still strong, but for every microsoft, cisco, there are a hundred "dot. bombs" that became not valueless, but valued at 1% or less of their high value at the top of the market peak.
what's REALLY interesting is when you overlay charts of the coin and stock markets vs. time.

my take: the coin market is healthy, a lot more healthy than the stock market. aggregate coin prices are rising, and selected market segments are truly "on fire", with prices going up because prices are going up, if you take my meaning. This trend is intact as of today. Risks/reward profiles for various segments of the coin market are as varied as the coins themselves. one final thing to consider: when someone gets a previously unslabbed coin into a slab at a nice, high grade, or gets a previously slabbed coin into a slab with a higher number on it, they call it "making" a coin. Think about what kinds of coins are more often being "made" in increasing numbers, and what kinds are not.

barberlover

Heres my honost view of "the coin market" while i'm sitting on the sidelines; better date accuratley graded fully struck buffalos are hot, also proof buffalos [even the most common ones as long as there graded 66 or better] dcam morgans are hot certain types of toneing on any morgan in mint state are bringing in stupid money from newbies that are going to get burned sooner or later, gold is "hot due to war worries" which will colapse after we kick Saddam's butt, better date washington quarters are hot especially in high grades. The extreme rarities for the most part have never gone any where but up braking price record after price record, allthough for those of us who could never afford 6 or 7 figure coins that really doesn't affect us. And of course anything with a 70 on the slab. Whats not hot type coins, half dimes 3 cent nickles, anything less than full red copper, designation coins that don't make the grade like mercury dimes that don't have fully split bands or frankies that don't have full bell lines or standing liberty quarters without full heads. Just my opionions based on prices I've seen.