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Consensus grading makes no sense. It's time for Rational Grading (and pics of a magnificent Norfolk

Concensus grading makes no sense. It's like remittitur and additur in the law.
If the judge doesn't like the verdict, he sets it aside and substitutes his own. That's just bunk, like consensus grading is.

You want better grading? Join intellectuals and elitists like me in ushering forth a new grading which i do hereby ordain as Rational Grading.

Here's how it works. You have a number of graders (five would be a good number) who grade all of the coins independently of each other.
They don't influence each other with table talk and other malarky only to have the finalizer over rule the plebes.

You average the grades together and round to the nearest decimal point. The result is what you want - more highly replicable grades.

You want "70" to mean something....get 5 guys to agree to it. You want your 65s to mean something...get 5 guys to have totals that average 65.

Think about it. If you were to pick a grading service, picking one that could grade consistently each time is what you want.

Rational grading is the answer. (Of course inconsistent grading is what the grading companys may want - more submissions.....more money...???)

(Oh, you've read this far. You must be an intellectual and an elitists too! Now, remember, intellectuals and elitists don't take themselves
too seriously especially when referring to themselves as intellectuals and elitists. We are after all just, as one board member knows, cosmic debris.)

adrian

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Comments

  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    I agree, but we couldn't have a French judge.image

    All kidding aside, I'd like the detail discussed online. Net grade on the holder is OK, but I'd like to be able to look up the slab specs and see the numeric 1-10 for strike, luster, marks, wear, and color. Maybe then, an opinion of overall appearance. That would be my panel of judges, and one grader could do it all. Maybe then, we'd have an idea what the 65 we were buying sight unseen looked like.
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • BigEBigE Posts: 6,949 ✭✭✭
    I guess it depends on how much time they spend on a coin-if a mistrial was declared it might take longer than 5 secondsimage----------BigE(not to be taken too seriouslyimage
    I'm glad I am a Tree
  • I think your idea of having additional grading info available online is a great idea.

    I'm not sure I can see the benefit in sight unseen bidding now that the internet is so pervasive and everyone now knows how to make accurate images of coins for sending hither and yon. image
  • braddickbraddick Posts: 24,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I would only add that between the five graders, no two should be more than a point apart.

    peacockcoins

  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    sight unseen grading

    I've suffered that technique on several of my submissions. image
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • I hear ya! (I fixed my earlier post but you're right, there seems to be too much sight unseen grading!)
  • so Adrian are you starting the new grading service?

    AGS

    Anaconda Grading Service
    our motto is...............

    "like our Rational Grading system or face the Anaconda"
  • No, i would have to give up buying and selling. It's also the same reason why i have not started a currency grading service.

    I think any grading service would have to be owned by some entity not involved in buying and selling, to avoid the appearance of impropriety.
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    It isn't a bad idea, and would certainly lead to more consistent grades. The only flaw I see is the one you mentioned earlier. The accuracy we gained would be at the expense of speed and cost of grading. I believe when you are relying on the accuracy of an appraisal by a third-party to establish whether an expensive coin is worth x or 10x, I'd be willing to pay more than $100 for a correct answer, and I'd prefer your approach.
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • I think the idea has merit. You would need to hire more graders though if you wanted to make a commercial operation out of it. 5 opinions costs more than 3 opinions. Still they would be trying to come to a consensus grade. What I mean is that they need to come up with one number for several charateristics for two sides of a coin.

    I liked the old (failed) ANACS grading system. Here is a large scan of an old graded Columbian. It is a very average coin compared to that Norfolk, I just use it as an example because it is the only commem I have graded by the old ANACS system

    Old ANACS grades
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    Carl, I liked that system, and I also liked the ANA "discussion" of the merits of a coin. I thought both were useful. Net grade is easier to price, but less descriptive.
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • Excellent! I've floated this idea on a few earlier occasions and couldn't ever seem to get any opinions one way or another. I truly think that
    a grading service that could grade a coin right (give it a grade that it would closely re-give later) is what we need.

    I agree it might be a little more expensive but i think on many occasions it would be worth it. No one wants to buy over graded coins and no one wants their coins undergraded.
  • RGLRGL Posts: 3,784
    The concept makes sense to me ... can we generate enough capital on this board to get it launched? That presuming, of course, that all of us are declaring an end to buying and selling coins. That is a gorgeous coin, A, what did it get?
  • I crushed this idea with my elitist intellectually superior logic the last time you brought it up. Maybe you could copy it from the previous thread. As I recall you ignored it, so I must have been right.

    Nice coin, though. image
  • ICG MS 69, formerly a PCGS MS 68, so i was told.

    Supercoin......really? I'm sure I didn't ignore it on purpose. I usually pay attention to fellow intellectuals.
  • Cam40Cam40 Posts: 8,146
    I just think there is no grading system or standard that everyone is going to agree with.Grading is and always has been someones opinion.Until we have a computerized system that no one can argue with....(is that possible?)
    everyone will have their own opnion as to what the grade is....to them.

    Grading is still an art,not a science.
  • Catch22Catch22 Posts: 1,086 ✭✭
    I've long thought that if a service has 3 people grade a coin, the holder should include all 3 grades. I also think having each grader sign the holder would improve the grader's analysis. For example, the holder might say...........MS-63, MS-64, MS-63..........the three graders signatures to follow.

    This would also lend to communicating on the holder the possibility of a PQ coin or one that just made it.

    Be honest, wouldn't you like to know who, exactly, graded that Lincoln MS-70?


    When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.

    Thomas Paine
  • I belive the ANACS certificate posted earlier shows that at one time we had the rational system that Anaconda asks for. You have the coin graded by FOUR graders with the grades for both the obverse and the reverse given, plus extra information about the top four subjectives of luster, surfaces, strike and eye appeal. The grades were averaged to get the overall grades shown on the front of the certificate (Both obverse and reverse grades were given rather than one numeric grade) The only thing missing is having the graders names on the certificate. All of this was in place seventeen years ago! But the market rejected it and went to the present slabbing instead. I agree that it was a better system and I would like to see it make a comeback. I'd have more faith in certified coins if it did.
  • nwcsnwcs Posts: 13,386 ✭✭✭
    I think that would be 1 grader shy of a petit grade verdict. image
  • LakesammmanLakesammman Posts: 17,413 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Do it like the Olympics - throw out the high, the low and the Russian judge. In this case, if it's going to DHRC, throw out his grade/opinion.

    As appealing as it sounds, it does seem cumbersome. It would still be a subjective process. Not sure there would be a net improvement. Sure is a interesting thought. Do you think PCGS is capable of keeping 5 graders, in the current environment??
    "My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose.
  • nwcsnwcs Posts: 13,386 ✭✭✭
    True, sounds like it would definitely increase the cost of submissions.
  • Cam40 - i agree, no one will ever always agree with some other entitites' grading. It's replicability that we should be after. Furthermore, because the graders' grades are getting averaged together, the effect of the most conservative on the grade of the most lenient will probably come close to matching the market's interpretation of what the coin is. More people will conclude that the coin is accurately graded as compared to the grades of what is actually currrently simply assigned by one person at worst and three (?) people at best, utilizing a non-rational methodology.

  • With regard to Anac's old system it was said

    "But the market rejected it and went to the present slabbing instead."

    I think that may be an inaccurate conclusion. What was rejected was ANACs non-encapsulation of coins along with everything ANACS was doing.
  • You think the cost of grading and the time it takes is outragious now... Wait until YOU have to wait and pay for 5 people.
  • "As appealing as it sounds, it does seem cumbersome."

    True, true, true. But, is is as cumbersome as having a coin graded multiple times by multiple services? There are some coins that appear as populations higher in the reports than their original mintage figures.

    Besides, i personally don't care, generally speaking, how long it takes to do it right. I'm and end user and only rarely submit coins.

    My interest is a better system for the good of the hobby/profession. Think about how much time we spend on this board speculating about what grade something might be - it goes to show you how important getting correct grades is.




    "It would still be a subjective process."

    And so would programming a computer to do computer grading.


  • << <i>Here's how it works. You have a number of graders (five would be a good number) who grade all of the coins independently of each other. >>




    snakeboy,
    your suggestion IS 'consensus grading'.
    image
  • I agree on better accuracy. I still don't know how they will ever get the pop figures corrected. That is a real mess.
    I'm like you, in that I don't care how long it takes to grade because I buy coins to keep for the most part, not to resell.

    Dan
  • baccarudabaccaruda Posts: 2,588 ✭✭
    unfortunately slabbing fees will go from $20 to $100 - after all it would increase their time spent on the coin to nearly 1 full minute!

    1 Tassa-slap
    2 Cam-Slams!
    1 Russ POTD!
  • leothelyonleothelyon Posts: 8,473 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Coins need to be graded for what the collector collects. For which there are too many varibles to signify a coin with a number. Coming up with a system where we'll still be trying to read between the lines is futile.
    On the other hand, the system we have with us today is based on a 70 point scale. The before and after of a coin that is graded has always been left for us to decide what is worth collecting and what is not. There's no way around this very human nature of man. Every worthy collectable coin will go through many
    tests of grading whether you pay for it or not. Where it (each coin) ends up will depend on that collector's knowledge and expense.

    Leo

    The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!

    My Jefferson Nickel Collection

  • Cam40Cam40 Posts: 8,146
    What about a grade range-grade.For instance MS64 +/- 1 ponit. Or AU 53 +/- 2 points.The price range would coinside
    with grade range.X# of dollars for AU50-55 .58-62 might be another grade / price range.
    I guess its like the BU,Choice BU,and Choice Gem BU.Not specific grades but a certain range in the scale.
  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    You may be making a heroic assumption here. That the grade would be accepted by the market. As long as their are coins, there will be grade disagreements. Your recommended solution, while admirable would be very costly to implement and everyone who thought their coin was better would complain even more loudly about the fees for grading. When there are major value changes for a single point on a coin, you will always have people grousing.

    It is a really good idea, but I dont think it would fly. I also support proving the underlying basis for the grade, i.e. strike, lustre (sp?), etc.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • BigD5BigD5 Posts: 3,433
    I think the process in place currently, can work, if applied correctly. Three graders and a finalizer. Each grader offereing an opinion, and the finalizer (judge) having the final say. The problem with the "system" is that when a coin comes back with a bogus au/58 grade, and comes back two weeks later at ms/63, is pcgs trying to tell me that the first time the coin went through the consensus grading process allowed my coin to get a grade of au/58, and the next time through everyone agreed on ms/63? Horsefeathers. I say the coins go through the grading process, and ONE opinion is given on the coin, and off to slab or bag or wherever, it heads off to, never seeing all three sets of eyes as it was supposed to. Pcgs can claim I'm sadly mistaken, but I've had too many au/58's miraculously transformed into ms/63's in a later submission. Granted this was in years past, I've since switched teams image

    BigD5
    LSCC#1864

    Ebay Stuff
  • JulianJulian Posts: 3,370 ✭✭✭
    This topic is quite volatile. I have maintained that grading is only necessary when you cannot see the coin. When you can see the coin, only one thing is important and that is the price. Grading is an attempt to paint a picture about the coin, nothing else. Quite simply, a two digit # will never adequately describe a coin. If the coin cannot be seen, it must be described in much greater detail, as to color, strike, abrasions, etc. Sight unseen is fine for AT&T stock, but not for collectibles. Collectibles must be seen to evaluate. Purchasers must be satisfied. No transaction should be complete until the purchaser is satisfied. People who give opinions on others' items are giving just their opinion. It is not their money that is being spent on the item. Don't most of you agree that it is silly for coins that had been acceptable to a purchaser are all of the sudden not acceptable because it will not meet someone else's standards. If the purchaser likes a coin and it fits in to his collection, that should be the end of it. Mind you, however, that this will not be good for registry sets and comparing the # value of your collection against someone else's, but collectibles exist for the enjoyment of the owner, not necessarily for the competive value against another's. It will, consequently, not be good for CU stock or for that matter stock in any company that just evaluates for income. Bring grading and collecting back to common sense. Is it worth the money to me for this coin, for my collection?
    PNG member, numismatic dealer since 1965. Operates a retail store, also has exhibited at over 1000 shows.
    I firmly believe in numismatics as the world's greatest hobby, but recognize that this is a luxury and without collectors, we can all spend/melt our collections/inventories.

    eBaystore
  • Julian--
    What a great post. A pleasure to read. I am very glad you have come here. And it is my deepest hope that you will find a reason to stay.

    Clankeye
    Brevity is the soul of wit. --William Shakespeare
  • coinguy1coinguy1 Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
    Sorry, I must respectfully disagree, at least somewhat, with Julian (and therefore Clankeye), even though they are both good guys.

    Julian, you said in part, "If the purchaser likes a coin and it fits in to his collection, that should be the end of it."

    I would agree if all purchasers were knowledgeable and informed and therefore didn't need to be protected from those who might try to take advantage of them. And, before someone asks or makes the point, no, I don't feel that the uninformed are merely getting what they deserve if someone sticks it to them.

    Before NGC and PCGS were around, many dealers sold badly over graded and / or problem coins to unsuspecting buyers / collectors and buried them in horrible deals. I have seen far too many such examples over the years. And, while the major grading companies are far from perfect, they at least offer some protection to the buyer who needs the help.

    Sure, many buyers still pay way too much or buy coins that many think are over graded, etc. And (this is for you, dorkkarl), some sellers unknowingly sell under graded coins for less than they should get for them. But, overall, in my opinion, at least, the non-expert gets a much fairer shake than he did before NGC and PCGS existed.
  • Mark--
    I never expressed an opinion one way or the other of whether I agreed with Julian's post. I said it was a pleasure to read. And I stand by that. image

    Clankeye
    Brevity is the soul of wit. --William Shakespeare
  • coinguy1coinguy1 Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
    My mistake?, Clankeye - I took your comment about it being a great post to mean that you agreed with it. Perhaps I jumped the gun at the prospect of finally being able to disagree with you about something. image

    More power to you if you disagreed and still said it was great. Now, the troublemaker in me must ask - for the record, did you agree or disagree?

  • Mark--

    As with many of the posts around here, I certainly found logic and clear headedness in a lot of what he is saying. But, I am not a big believer in absolutes. I think the hobby is many things to many people, and that it is in constant motion and flux. I think the post expresses kind of a purest way of looking at numismatics that is appealing. It is filled with common sense. Other realities when added to the picture though, may make for a more complicated and volitile hobby. If that were not the case alot of the back and forth we read on the forum simply wouldn't exist.

    By the way, have you seen the movie Chicago yet? Love the scene where Richard Gere tap dances in it....

    Clankeye
    Brevity is the soul of wit. --William Shakespeare
  • I love the idea. I think that regrades on a coin would have a higher percentile of regrading at the same grade..

    Now on that regrade,

    Why in the world would PCGS do something that might lose them money? If the grade looks right on the holder, only the greedy or foolhardy would send it in. They would have to jack up the price 3 times the current rate to keep thier income at the same level. With the current system the graders give a coin a 64, the finalizer might give it a 63. You as the submitter KNOW it's a lock 64, so you keep sending it in, generating income. Maybe after 4 submitions it works, maybe 10 times it doesn't. You ask them to lose money in the name of customer satisfaction -- HOW DARE YOU!

    Bah!


    Got Morgan?
  • CalGoldCalGold Posts: 2,608 ✭✭
    Actually I think that Mark and Julian both make good points and I do not really think that they are in conflict. While collectors generally are certainly better off with professional third party grading, they still must decide whether they like something regardless of grade. For example, a collector who normally will not bother to look at coin graded less than gem might just find an MS63 with great eye appeal–such as a beautifully toned example or a prooflike that has some hits in less conspicuous places. Conversely, he might see a coin graded MS65 that lacks eye appeal because it is dark or "just made it" into the 65 holder. Thus some 63s sell for a premium, and some 65s sell for a discount from the average price for the grade.

    The AU58/MS63 anomaly has haunted and will continue to haunt grading for reasons that have been discussed before concerning rub from circulation and rub from life in a mint bag, roll, cabinet or album, or even concluding whether there is rub at all. Anyone who has ever labored to decide whether one of their own coins is AU58 or MS63, and vacillated between different conclusions on different days, can only imagine what happens in the grading room when the graders have the advantage of three sets of eyes but not the luxury of looking at one coin for hours. And since the grading service is guaranteeing the grade it probably only takes one guy to cry out "I see rub" for the finalizer to decide that it goes into an AU58 slab.
    CG
  • DHeathDHeath Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
    If the coin cannot be seen, it must be described in much greater detail, as to color, strike, abrasions, etc.

    Julian, you have described my biggest complaint with 3rd party grading. Since grading is reduced to a single number, there is no alternative for the services but to market grade. The number on the holder typically represents relative market value, and does not actually describe the attributes of the coin. There is simply no substitute for sight seen.
    Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
    and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
  • coinguy1coinguy1 Posts: 13,484 ✭✭✭
    CalGold, you said, in part :



    << <i>While collectors generally are certainly better off with professional third party grading, they still must decide whether they like something regardless of grade. For example, a collector who normally will not bother to look at coin graded less than gem might just find an MS63 with great eye appeal–such as a beautifully toned example or a prooflike that has some hits in less conspicuous places. Conversely, he might see a coin graded MS65 that lacks eye appeal because it is dark or "just made it" into the 65 holder. Thus some 63s sell for a premium, and some 65s sell for a discount from the average price for the grade >>


    Well spoken!
  • Someone asked....."Why in the world would PCGS do something that might lose them money" (in the short term)?" [referring to the possibility that PCGS
    would cosider adopting a method of grading (Rational Grading - assigning a grade which is the average of the graders) which would probably result in fewer resubmissions]

    My response: Because

    1. someone else may come along and do it which would make PCGS either adopt the new method or lose maret share (when FedEx came along and originally did overnight deliveries for $9, the USPS lowered their rates, for the first time in response)

    2. they may recognize the logic of it and fear that someone will come along and do it, so to decrease the attractiveness to any potential new competitor, they do it first

    3. it makes sense and would be good for the coin community and David Hall (or whoever would make the decision) would get to feel better about himself because he's doing something that is good for the coin community

    4. could could charge more for the service (maybe even based upon the number of graders you want grading your coin, the number of which could be displayed on the holder - selling a $50,000 which rec'd an average grade of 65 from 10 graders would carry more weight than a 65 that was graded by just three graders)

    adrian

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