Gold Gurus
gmarguli
Posts: 2,225 ✭✭
It seems that a lot of people here are getting into gold because it is rising. Overnight so many forum members have become gold gurus.
How many of you have SUCCESSFULLY been playing gold in the past? I'm not talking about the "I purchased a few junk Libs and now they are up 20%" type of profit, but the consistent making of profit by being short/long gold over years. You know, knowing the supply/demand trends and both the internal and external factors.
If you haven't been doing this in the past and are just riding the wave up now, perhaps you should look into internet stocks.
And not to be too negative or harsh/mean, but historically when the clueless amateurs wanting to hitch onto the ride enter the market - and this is what 99.99% of you people are, that is around the top.
How many of you have SUCCESSFULLY been playing gold in the past? I'm not talking about the "I purchased a few junk Libs and now they are up 20%" type of profit, but the consistent making of profit by being short/long gold over years. You know, knowing the supply/demand trends and both the internal and external factors.
If you haven't been doing this in the past and are just riding the wave up now, perhaps you should look into internet stocks.
And not to be too negative or harsh/mean, but historically when the clueless amateurs wanting to hitch onto the ride enter the market - and this is what 99.99% of you people are, that is around the top.
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You guys go play around with the precious metals. I prefer to continue with my hobby and as for my expendable income...I'll just keep it in the old readies
Cheers,
Bob
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
I have British gold Sovereigns (0.2354 oz. AGW) that I paid $72 for when gold was $280 per ounce that I may be able to get $80 for right now. I don't think I'm going to be able to retire real soon like that.
I like the coin. I like the history. I am content mostly with that. The precious metal content is just icing on the cake.
Charlie
BTW Here at the Evil Empire (TM), when bullion crosses the counter, it's moved out ASAP. That should give an indication about what they think about gold because if there's a buck in it, they'll hold it forever.
Edited for grammer
Granted I did just pickup another company a couple months ago but the price was good when the POG was retracing. Physical
metals I buy and hold as a hedge. My grandfather taught me the metals game through my teenage years.
Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker
Buy more over-priced platinum and leave my...er, the near-melt gold coins to us amateurs to buy at the $250 range.
Greg, I really don't see a lot of risk in buying gold within 20% of a long, long-term bottom. There are a lot of market forces at work. Some not necessarily good for US banking system and the bullion banks. We'll see...
A good while back someone created a thread about a mailer someone received from Blanchard and Company, Inc. from New Orleans. I received a mailer from them in yesterday's mail. They have in fact "filed an anti-trust lawsuit against Barrick Gold Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and other, as yet unnamed bullion banks, accusing them of unlawfully combining to manipulate the price of gold at the expense of Blanchard' clients. Blanchard is paying the costs of the suit." For them to file that suit in District Court in Louisiana, that will be a "fun" suit to watch Barrick defend. I'm not claiming a coonass jury would be sympathetic to that New Orleans based firm, ......hmmmm....hmmmm but it has been known to happen.
Anyway, I wish people well with their gold purchases.
Wallstreetman:
1) I do NOT own silver. Well, I did recently find (5) 1oz bars I've had for 10+ years and I have some junk silver coins here and there and I think that I have some of those silver pellets the govt used to give in exchange for silver certs. I guess if I sold it all I would have enough to buy a nice dinner.
I don't talk about silver because I've yet to see a dozen threads on it in this forum.
Your remark about jealousy sounds EXACTLY like what I used to hear from people riding the internet stocks. Kind of funny coming from Wall Street Man. They were doubling their money in a month and were kings of the world. Us old fogies didn't get the "new economy" and we were just jealous. Completely jealous. No other explaniation. Yep, those masterminds buying new cars and popping $500 bottles of wine laughed at us. Where are they now? My guess is the bankruptcy line.
I don't suggest people do nothing. I do suggest they have a clue about what they are doing before they invest their money in it. Most people here are investing their money in gold because they think it will go higher. No facts, no history, no solid information, nothing to back it up. Just a gut feeling and the idea that they don't want to be left behind.
As for silver, I remember people riding the wave when it was flying. Wave riders got burned. They knew nothing other than thinking it was going to go higher.
As for my sig, take it as you like. Some see it as a joke. Others see it as a true statement. Personally, I put it there to stop the whiny people from saying that I was too blunt in how I wrote something. Now I've got the disclaimer that I'm Mean & Evil™ and no one can complain. However, if my sig said Nice & Friendly™ would you be happier with my gold guru post?
And may I suggest that if you want to be taken seriously, you take off the PCGS Cheerleader outfit and post one objective fact about the coin industry.
There was no economic justification for it to be higher, especially with the price manipulation by the central banks and the FED.
Now the economy is in the toilet with the possibility of floundering
(along with the US Dollar and stocks) for several years or more. We are in a different time. Forget the past 15 to 20 years. That's history. Time to change the Zebra's stripes. Consider gold a portion of your portfolio or a hedge against bad times. Everything we buy is a gamble, even state quarters. Many moderns are up more than 30% in the past 18 months (actually try 1000%). Yet you can buy a nice MS Saint for less than a 50% premium to melt. You can't even get a wheat Penny for that premium!
Buffet and Gates didn't buy a million ounces of silver each because they are stupid. And incidently silver broke out of it's box today too.
It may do much better than gold over the longer term. I still love rare coins but don't mind diversifying 5-15% or so into gold bullion and gold coins. Call it peace of mind. There are lots of reasons pointing to harder times ahead. Gold and silver will work both in as inflationary and deflationary hedges.
roadrunner
more than likely it will cause it to rise.
I don't speculate in gold. I sold off all my US gold coins before the market fell apart.
I do have quite a bit of silver in junk coin form, and I believe it is a better bet than gold.
Ray
roadrunner
Buffet reportedly owned his for a very short period of time. I don't know anything about Gates owning any.
gold, on the other hand is a proven age-old commodity. it's a safe hold. i don't see how gold can become more valuable in the future since technology can only make gold easier to mine, and being an archaic store of money don't see how demand can suddenly boom either. no one's going to make big money and no one's going to lose their shirt playing gold.
theoretically the only way to get rich investing in gold is to have economies collapse and the world turn to crap. i don't quite understand that because under those circumstances i'd rather own guns and food over gold anyday.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
<< <i>i don't quite understand that because under those circumstances i'd rather own guns and food over gold anyday. >>
The theory is that, in the scenario you mention, the latter is the only thing that will still buy the former.
Russ, NCNE
I did well with internet stocks
The Mean & Evil (how the heck do you do the 'TM' thing) one is ok. He is just trying to gently (in only the way that he can) make you aware of the pitfalls of gold speculation.
There were many many real people that lost quite a bit of real money in the last gold bust. Almost in the span of a few days, people had lost about $200+ per ounce. In a week or two, people lost over $300+. In less than a month, people had lost over 50% or $400+ per ounce.
Gold is the second "generally perceived" rare and precious commodity, after diamonds (which are plentiful but very very controlled).
Buy gold coins because they are beautiful; add them to your collection because you love them; get type sets, collections, but do it because you love the numismatic portion of it. To short/long it for a profit is very dangerous and requires knowledge, money and fortitude (so if you got it, do it, if you don't, don't).
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
Perhaps it is a bit speculative, but reasonable. Why not combine numismatic potential and precious metals and go with some obsolete gold, type issues?
I do look for St. Gaudens to catch on fire this year. They are already moving up....
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
Alt 0153 = ™
Start selling put contracts after the 1st week of the war.
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
One of the problems when the general populace starts getting into gold is that they so not realize what a
psychotic price it has. It is capable of violent price swings and many people get burned when it starts
whipsawing. When people no longer look at me like the village idiot but rather nod knowingly when gold
stocks are mentioned it is time to get out. A lot of people will get burned if they don't do their homework.
The same applies to silver to a lesser degree. These are thing you get for the long term, not to turn a quick
buck. Short timers usually miss the train.
Disclosure - I am long silver and gold.
Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker
true, but under economic collapse i would think bartering with goods would be much more prevalent. i'd be much more willing to accept hard goods in trade than something with no other value than a store of wealth (besides making pretty jewelry and coins with of course).
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
So far it is holding up it's end of the bargain.
If it goes down?
So...
I was in it when Gold was 290/ When Silver was 4.30 and when Plat was 530
I think Gold will correct after the war starts. But - I believe that Gold is in a long term Bull that has just started.
If I'm wrong? So - I am only in it 10% deep - I'll take that risk.
No not every one is in this line. For the last 30 years or so i learned to cost average each shipment setting a sell price the minute it came through the door. I did take a few beatings along the way as no one is 100 percent all the time, but if you keep careful records of what you are doing Gold can and will make you money. Sell and buy on the dips, Take 50% of the metal and put it in the vault and keep 50% in the pool so you can dump it on any given day and quickly.
Find a good broker to assist you, don't go at it alone. Yes he is going to make money but the help is worth the added cost. Keep your Gold and SIlver investments seperate from your Rare Coin Investments.(exception SAE's GAE's)
There is no safe place to invest now a days. The Dow will drop as the year goes on, people will find there 401k's in even worst shape then last year if they stay in. Think LONG term,Dollar cost average, Buy and sell on the dips,watch the market. And gmarguli is right if you don't know what you are doing and you think you are caught up in the hype of this gold bull market GET SOME HELP!
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
you can always make a living.
Camelot
Dog97 had once said that no matter what happens, he always has the 4 B's:
- beans
- bullets
- bible
- beer
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
My Wall Street portfolio is doing just fine under the circumstances. People pay me for my advise in this area.
You can keep gold. I dumped all of my junk silver & bullion coins when gold & silver were on their way up in 1979-1980. I was somewhat amused that my $5 rolls of circulated silver Roosevelt & Mercury Dimes got me $100 each. The prices were so ridiculous, that I also included G-VG Barber coinage in the junk silver pile.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
<< <i>Even if the economy of the whole world collapses. If you own a good hand gun
you can always make a living.
Ahhh a nice Ruger GP-100 6 shot 6 inch Stainless.. I love wheel guns.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
<< <i>Bear, How abou a gold handgun with silver bullets?
Like this?
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!
Personally I like the 2 for 1 play with choice MS 64 Saints. 63's and 65's are ok, but I like the 64's myself. There is not an unlimited # of Saints out there.
roadrunner
I commend him for speaking up.
It is better to look at gold and silver as a store of value that will never be completely devalued due to inflation or possible deflation. The psychological aspect of gold is still deep in our brains that next to food, water, shelter and ammo the best thing to own along with silver.
Keep in mind that while food and water is best to own, they cannot be stored indefinitely nor transported easily in times of crisis. Worse yet, it is difficult to guard against those who want to take it from you in a lawless world. But gold and silver can be hidden easily and more importantly, easily transported.
Now back to reality, gold is best bought in old classic $20 liberties, preferablly the ones minted prior to 1877 (type II) and the ones minted prior to 1866 (type I). They are great collector coins and if you pay a bit more for the mint state ones (even the 1877 to 1907 ones) they are a better thing yet. I am less excited about MS-64 Saints since they will do well only in a very strong market.
I also happen to love silver in the form of merc dimes and walkers. Great collector coins in circulated condition at no more than 4x face value. It is a screaming buy at those levels. The numismatic value is essentially just above the bullion value at this time and the face value gives it great underlying support at 25% of the numismatic/bullion value and therefore I call these coins a triple play.
Both of these areas should be part of everyone numismatic core holdings as there is nothing better than getting to hold one of these coins in your hands without a slab in between!
Buy for the long term and do it for the enjoyment of the hobby. The safety, possible appreciation and store of value will only be bonuses!
<< <i>Then you can look at Gold for the long term, something that you may want to hand down to your kids! St Gaudens have a face of $20, Eagles are $50, maybe an Ostrich is next at $100. Get the picture? >>
Don't forget the UK 1 tr oz gold Britannia with a face value of 100 Pound Sterling.
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!
I think Bill Gates bought something like 900,000 ounces of silver. One of the hard asset websites has specifics on this. As far as I have read, Buffet still owns his million ounces of silver.
Oreville's play on Walkers sounds good. It was only a few short years ago you could buy Walkers for plain old silver. Now they carry a 30% premium to say Franklins and Kennedy's. After the next round of silver melting, the premium will only rise. I'll stick with the 64 Saints because I think of lot of speculation is coming down the road. You get a 75 year old, almost gem mint state coin, for less than double face value. While it has no bearing on today's value, these sold for $1500+ in 1989. I think they finally hit bottom at $425-450 a few years ago. I love condition, so a circulated, early $20 Lib is just not going to cut it for me unless it's dirt cheap. I did just buy a nice ANACS (old black label holder) EF45+ 1878-s for $350. That was cheap enough. $20 Type 2's in nice lustrous AU-55 to 58 are however nice buys in the $450-550 range.
roadrunner
While I follow Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway (and own its stock), it's been a while since I looked into the specifics of his silver purchase, so the numbers might be slightly off.
I believe that Buffet purchased 125 million ounces of silver. It is believed he purchased it between $4.50-$6.50 an ounce, but highly likely most, if not all, was purchased at the very low end of that range.
I've seen reports that Buffet made about a quarter of a billion on his purchase - indicating he bought low, but sold before the peak.
He purchased it because at the time, 1997, demand was higher than supply and he and Charlie Munger both agreed that it was likely to rise.
The problem was that he purchased so much of the silver (25% of the worlds supply for the year) and when it was found out who was buying it, everyone jumped on board. These were the clueless speculators jumping in a $7.50+/ounce. Come on people, raise your hand if you were one of them.
Reports are that Buffet sold his silver after the run up. It wasn't that he didn't believe in silver, it was that in a very short period of time silver rose to a level that he felt couldn't be sustained.
It is possible that he still owns his silver. He doesn't report it as a broken out item. It's reported under misc items in the annual report.
As for Gates owning 900,000 ounces? Big deal. That's $4M to a man worth $43 billion. He also owns a $1M car that isn't street legal. Now if he were to buy $400M in silver....
You say that you don't have the numbers for gold at $850. Why didn't you just pull them out of your ass like the other numbers you made up? I'll do it for you. When gold hits $850 there is $173,000,000,000,000 ($173 trillion) a day in gold funds deposits.
With gold in the $425-$450 range the AVERAGE gold fund get $8 million a day ($2+ billion a year) in deposits. At $650 it is more impressive with $700 million a day ($182 billion a year).
When was the last time gold was at $450? 1988. When was the last time gold was $650? 1980. When was the last time you posted something that could be backed up with facts? Where did these numbers come from?
What does this say?
That you're making things up that you have no clue about.
There is still a lot of skeptics(BIG MONEY) yet to enter the Gold Market.
There are a lot of skeptics (BIG MONEY) yet to enter the rare mushroom market.
I dont know about you, but this tells me Gold has just begun to run!
Good. Please invest 100% of your money in gold. When it goes from $345 to $300 you can tell us more fanciful stories about how you made money.
For all you gold gurus, here is a 20 year chart of fools gold:
gmarguli
with that gold chart you posted can you post a interest rate chart over the same years
or what gold yeild is to interest rates at todays rates
or the value of the us dollar against the world currencies
your looking at the past but just a part of it you like
i don't care who or who isn't in gold but be warned this is not like any thing we
have seen in my life time
China is selling goods cents on the Dollar to us goods and interest with what is will run off
world investors in our debt and stock market
where would you put your wealth
A few other observations:
(1) There is a demand for gold in countries with (a) unsophisticated economies, and (b) a belief that economics is a zero-sum game. We could debate the implications of this, but it is significant.
(2) The Chinese can already own gold jewelry. Although the Chinese know how to roll the dice, ultimately, the growing class of Chinese capitalists knows the difference between investing and speculating. If the Chinese politicians continue to chart a course the promotes stability and gradual liberalization, the Chinese capitalists will have much better things to do with their money than buy gold.
(3) If the price of gold were to rise substantially, production would increase.
(4) Barring catastrophic events (or George W getting a little heavy handed in priming the pump!), global economic conditions still point towards low inflation or deflation.
For those hearty anti-gold gurus, Jim Sinclair is offering a $100,000 that gold will close above $400 in 2003. Boy, this sure seems like an easy sucker's bet to double your money in one year. Check www.financialsense.com to write him and call him on his offer. Maybe he'd offer a special $10,000 cut-rate to forum members. Sure beats the lottery.
roadrunner
honi soit qui mal y pense
gold - the barbarous relic!